GFDL Seasonal Forecast System

GFDL is collaborating with the International Research Institute (IRI) to produce seasonal forecasts as part of the IRI monthly Multi-model ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction system. A two degree 24 level atmospheric GCM forced with SSTs provided by IRI is used to produce a 7 month Tier 2 forecast as follows: The first of each month IRI provides observed SSTs and 3 SST forecast scenarios(ensemble mean +/- 1 stdev.) Two season (7 month) ensemble (10 member) predictions are made using the SST anomalies from each of the 3 forecast scenarios plus persisted SST anomalies (i.e., a total of 40 forecasts). Precipitation and surface air temperature forecasts are sent to IRI for use in their MME prediction system.

• Forecasts and archive
• Coupled forecasts and archive
• Retrospective forecast datasets

Tropical Pacific Forecast

Anomaly Forecasts, Model Bias, RMSE, & SKILL

SST Anomaly Plumes