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why this essay?
I am an atmospheric and climate scientist with a career-long interest in under- standing how the climate system works. I centered my earliest research, in the late 1960s, on direct analysis of available observations to isolate the most important mechanisms governing atmospheric behavior. It made me very much aware that the available atmospheric measurements and accompanying atmo- spheric theory are not sufficient to provide the deep quantitative understanding that is required to predict changes within the climate system. It was already clear to me that mathematical models would have to be added to gain deeper understanding and improved predictive skills.
In 1970, I joined National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) at Princeton Uni- versity, which was leading the world in the new effort to use mathematical mod- eling approaches to understand the entire climate system and how it changes. GFDL was attempting to include and understand various parts of the climate system, including such key aspects as the ocean and land-surface systems. My task was to emphasize the stratosphere and the climate effects of atmospheric chemistry, including ozone, a gas that absorbs solar and infrared radiation ef- ficiently. I soon learned that reconciling theory and observations through the use of mathematical models is essentially the only way to achieve a fully quan- titative understanding of the climate system. More importantly, I also learned that the challenges to be overcome through the use of mathematical models are daunting, requiring the efforts of dedicated teams working a decade or more on individual aspects of the climate system.
It is this high degree of difficulty and complexity that provides significant context for this personal essay on human-caused "greenhouse warming" 2 and some of its broader implications. The climate system is sufficiently complex and all encompassing that there are no "all-knowing" experts on this problem. However, teams of talented scientists working together can, and do, become close to the equivalent of an encompassing expertise. I am fortunate to be surrounded at GFDL by a team of world-renowned scientists who are knowl- edgable about almost all aspects of greenhouse warming. Most of the insights I offer have been gained from a research lifetime of fruitful encounters with this extraordinary group of colleagues.
2In this article, the term greenhouse warming is used to describe the general warming of Earth's climate in response to human-produced emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons.