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Study by John Austin and colleagues on the Ozone recovery date

 
The figure shows the stratospheric ozone recovery date as a function of latitude for a baseline column ozone level simulated on a particular year given on the abscissa. The results were obtained from a range of coupled chemistry climate models (including the GFDL model AMTRAC3) which contributed to the Chemistry Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) project. Ozone recovery is anticipated over about half of the Earth's surface. In the northern hemisphere, outside the tropics, ozone recovery is expected to occur faster than the reduction in ozone depleting substances due to the effect of climate change. In the southern hemisphere, column ozone is expected to recover at approximately the same rate as ozone depleting substances. However, a small residual ozone hole is still simulated to occur in some models even as late as the end of the century. In the latitude range 30S-30N, after an initial recovery, column ozone is expected to continue to decrease slowly from the middle of the 21st century. This arises from the anticipated increase in the strength of the circulation which transports low ozone from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere.

List of authors:

J. Austin, H. Struthers, J. Scinocca, D. Plummer, J.F. Lamarque, A. Gettelman, D. Kinnison, H. Akiyoshi, Y.Yamashita, T. Nakamura, T.G. Shepherd, M. Michou, H. Teyssedre, M. Dameris, H. Garny, A.J.G. Baumgaertner, C. Bruhl, P. Jockel, S. Pawson, R. Stolarski, S. Frith, S. Bekki, K. Shibata, D. Smale, O. Morgenstern, G.E. Bodeker, E. Rozanov, T. Peter, E. Mancini, G. Pitari, M. Chipperfield, S. Dhomse, N. Butchart, S. Hardiman, P. Braesicke, J. Pyle

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