Bibliography - Stephen M Griffies

1. Dunne, John P., Jasmin John, Elena Shevliakova, Ronald J Stouffer, John P Krasting, Sergey Malyshev, P C D Milly, Lori T Sentman, Alistair Adcroft, William F Cooke, Krista A Dunne, Stephen M Griffies, Robert W Hallberg, Matthew J Harrison, Hiram Levy II, Andrew T Wittenberg, Peter Phillipps, and Niki Zadeh, April 2013: GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models Part II: Carbon system formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate, 26(7), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00150.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   We describe carbon system formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate good climate fidelity as described in Part I while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ almost exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. On land, both ESMs include a revised land model to simulate competitive vegetation distributions and functioning, including carbon cycling among vegetation, soil and atmosphere. In the ocean, both models include new biogeochemical algorithms including phytoplankton functional group dynamics with flexible stoichiometry. Preindustrial simulations are spun up to give stable, realistic carbon cycle means and variability. Significant differences in simulation characteristics of these two models are described. Due to differences in oceanic ventilation rates (Part I) ESM2M has a stronger biological carbon pump but weaker northward implied atmospheric CO2 transport than ESM2G. The major advantages of ESM2G over ESM2M are: improved representation of surface chlorophyll in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and thermocline nutrients and oxygen in the North Pacific. Improved tree mortality parameters in ESM2G produced more realistic carbon accumulation in vegetation pools. The major advantages of ESM2M over ESM2G are reduced nutrient and oxygen biases in the Southern and Tropical Oceans.

2. Lee, Hyun-Chul, Thomas L Delworth, Anthony Rosati, Rong Zhang, Whit G Anderson, Fanrong Zeng, Charles A Stock, Anand Gnanadesikan, Keith W Dixon, and Stephen M Griffies, January 2013: Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea. Climate Dynamics, 40(1-2), doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1301-8.
   [ Abstract ]

   The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 at a rate of 1% per year until CO2 reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2�C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1�C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO2 doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.

3. Rugenstein, M, Michael Winton, Ronald J Stouffer, Stephen M Griffies, and Robert W Hallberg, January 2013: Northern high latitude heat budget decomposition and transient warming. Journal of Climate, 26(2), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00695.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   Climate models simulate a wide range of climate changes at high northern latitudes in response to increased CO2. They also have substantial disagreement on projected changes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here we use two pairs of closely related climate models - each containing members with large and small AMOC declines - to explore the influence of AMOC decline on the high latitude response to increased CO2. The models with larger AMOC decline have less high latitude warming and sea ice decline than their small AMOC decline counterpart. By examining differences in the perturbation heat budget of the 40�90�N region, it is shown that AMOC decline diminishes the warming by weakening poleward ocean heat transport and increasing the ocean heat uptake. The cooling impact of this AMOC forced surface heat flux perturbation difference is enhanced by shortwave feedback and diminished by longwave feedback and atmospheric heat transport differences. The magnitude of the AMOC decline within model pairs is positively related to the magnitudes of control climate AMOC and Labrador Sea convection. Because the 40degree 90degree N region accounts for up to 40% of the simulated global ocean heat uptake over one hundred years, the process described here influences the global heat uptake efficiency.

4. Straneo, F, P Heimbach, Olga V Sergienko, G Hamilton, G Catania, Stephen M Griffies, and Robert W Hallberg, et al., in press: Challenges to Understand the Dynamic Response of Greenland's Marine Terminating Glaciers to Oceanic and Atmospheric Forcing. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00100. 1/13.
   [ Abstract ]

   The recent retreat and speedup of outlet glaciers, as well as enhanced surface melting around the ice sheet margin, have increased Greenland's contribution to sea level rise to 0.6±0.1 mm/yr and its discharge of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The widespread, near-synchronous glacier retreat, and its coincidence with a period of oceanic and atmospheric warming, suggest a common climate driver. Evidence points to the marine margins of these glaciers as the region from which changes propagated inland. Yet the forcings and mechanisms behind these dynamic responses are poorly understood and either missing or crudely parameterized in climate and ice sheet models. Resulting projected sea level rise contributions from Greenland by 2100 remain highly uncertain. This paper summarizes current state of knowledge and highlights key physical aspects of Greenland's coupled ice-sheet/ocean/atmosphere system. Three research thrusts are identified to yield fundamental insights into ice sheet, ocean, sea ice and atmosphere interactions, their role in Earth's climate system, and probable trajectories of future changes: (1) focused process studies addressing critical glacier, ocean, atmosphere and coupled dynamics; (2) sustained observations at key sites; and (3) inclusion of relevant dynamics in Earth System Models. Understanding the dynamic response of Greenland's glaciers to climate forcing constitutes both a scientific and technological frontier given the challenges of obtaining the appropriate measurements from the glaciers' marine termini and the complexity of the dynamics involved, including the coupling of the ocean, atmosphere, glacier and sea ice systems. Interdisciplinary and international cooperation are crucial to making progress on this novel and complex problem. Capsule: An interdisciplinary and multi-faceted approach is needed to understand the forcings and mechanisms behind the recent retreat and acceleration of Greenland's glaciers and its implications for future sea level rise

5. Winton, Michael, Alistair Adcroft, Stephen M Griffies, Robert W Hallberg, Larry W Horowitz, and Ronald J Stouffer, January 2013: Influence of ocean and atmosphere components on simulated climate sensitivities. Journal of Climate, 26(1), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00121.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   We examine the influence of alternative ocean and atmosphere subcomponents on climate model simulation of transient sensitivities by comparing three GFDL climate models used for the CMIP5. The base model ESM2M is closely related to GFDL's CMIP3 climate model CM2.1, and makes use of a depth coordinate ocean component. The second model, ESM2G, is identical to ESM2M but makes use of an isopycnal coordinate ocean model. We compare the impact of this "ocean swap" with an "atmosphere swap" that produces the CM3 climate model by replacing the AM2 atmosphere with AM3 while retaining a depth coordinate ocean model. The atmosphere swap is found to have much larger influence on sensitivities of global surface temperature and Northern Hemisphere sea ice cover. The atmosphere swap also introduces a multi-decadal response timescale through its indirect influence on heat uptake. Despite significant differences in their interior ocean mean states, the ESM2M and ESM2G simulations of these metrics of climate change are very similar, except for an enhanced high latitude salinity response accompanied by temporarily advancing sea ice in ESM2G. In the ESM2G historical simulation this behavior results in the establishment of a strong halocline in the subpolar North Atlantic during the early 20th century and an associated cooling which are counter to observations in that region. The Atlantic meridional overturning declines comparably in all three models.

6. Winton, Michael, Stephen M Griffies, Bonita L Samuels, Jorge L Sarmiento, and Thomas L Frolicher, April 2013: Connecting Changing Ocean Circulation with Changing Climate. Journal of Climate, 26(7), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00296.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   The influence of changing ocean currents on climate change is evaluated by comparing an earth system model’s response to increased CO2 with and without an ocean circulation response. Inhibiting the ocean circulation response, by specifying a seasonally-varying preindustrial climatology of currents, has a much larger influence on the heat storage pattern than on the carbon storage pattern. The heat storage pattern without circulation changes resembles carbon storage (either with or without circulation changes) more than it resembles the heat storage when currents are allowed to respond. This is shown to be due to the larger magnitude of the redistribution transport – the change in transport due to circulation anomalies acting on control climate gradients – for heat than for carbon. The net ocean heat and carbon uptake are slightly reduced when currents are allowed to respond. Hence, ocean circulation changes potentially act to warm the surface climate. However, the impact of the reduced carbon uptake on radiative forcing is estimated to be small while the redistribution heat transport shifts ocean heat uptake from low to high latitudes increasing its cooling power. Consequently, global surface warming is significantly reduced by circulation changes. Circulation changes also shift the pattern of warming from broad northern hemisphere amplification to a more structured pattern with reduced warming at subpolar latitudes in both hemispheres and enhanced warming near the equator.

7. Bates, M L., Stephen M Griffies, and M H England, December 2012: A dynamic, embedded Lagrangian model for ocean climate models, Part I: Theory and implementation. Ocean Modelling, 59-60, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.05.004.
   [ Abstract ]

   A framework for embedding a Lagrangian model within ocean climate models that employ horizontal Eulerian grids is presented. The embedded Lagrangian model can be used to explicitly represent processes that are at the subgrid scale to the Eulerian model. The framework is applied to open ocean deep convection and gravity driven downslope flows, both of which are subgridscale in the present generation of level coordinate ocean climate models. In order to apply the embedded Lagrangian framework to these processes, it is necessary to partition the mass and momentum of the model into an Eulerian system and a Lagrangian system. This partitioning allows the Lagrangian model to transport seawater using a more appropriate set of dynamics. A number of schemes suitable for implementation in the embedded Lagrangian model are derived. Two dynamically passive schemes are derived that emulate existing parameterisations and two dynamically active schemes are also derived that evolve Lagrangian parcels of water (termed ”blobs”) according to a set of physical equations. Some details of the implementation into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Modular Ocean Model are also given. Finally, results are presented that show that the dynamically passive schemes are able to emulate their Eulerian counterparts to within roundoff error in idealised test cases.

8. Bates, M L., Stephen M Griffies, and M H England, December 2012: A dynamic, embedded Lagrangian model for ocean climate models, Part II: Idealised overflow tests. Ocean Modelling, 59-60, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.08.003.
   [ Abstract ]

   Dense gravity current overflows occur in several regions throughout the world and are an important process in the meridional overturning circulation. Overflows are poorly represented in coarse resolution level coordinate ocean climate models. Here, the embedded Lagrangian model formulated in the companion paper of Bates et al., 2012 is used in two idealised test cases to examine the effect on the representation of dense gravity driven plumes, as well as the effect on the circulation of the bulk ocean in the Eulerian model. The results are compared with simulations with no parameterisation for overflows, as well as simulations that use traditional hydrostatic overflow schemes. The use of Lagrangian “blobs” is shown to improve three key characteristics that are poorly represented in coarse resolution level coordinate models: (1) the depth of the plume, (2) the along slope velocity of the plume, and (3) the response of the bulk ocean to the bottom boundary layer. These improvements are associated with the more appropriate set of dynamics satisfied by the blobs, leading to a more physically sound representation. Experiments are also conducted to examine sensitivity to blob parameters. The blob parameters are examined over a large parameter space.

9. Delworth, Thomas L., Anthony Rosati, Whit G Anderson, Alistair Adcroft, Ventakramani Balaji, Rusty Benson, Keith W Dixon, Stephen M Griffies, Hyun-Chul Lee, Ronald C Pacanowski, Gabriel A Vecchi, Andrew T Wittenberg, Fanrong Zeng, and Rong Zhang, April 2012: Simulated climate and climate change in the GFDL CM2.5 high-resolution coupled climate model. Journal of Climate, 25(8), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00316.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   We present results for simulated climate and climate change from a newly developed high-resolution global climate model (GFDL CM2.5). The GFDL CM2.5 model has an atmospheric resolution of approximately 50 Km in the horizontal, with 32 vertical levels. The horizontal resolution in the ocean ranges from 28 Km in the tropics to 8 Km at high latitudes, with 50 vertical levels. This resolution allows the explicit simulation of some mesoscale eddies in the ocean, particularly at lower latitudes. We present analyses based on the output of a 280 year control simulation; we also present results based on a 140 year simulation in which atmospheric CO2 increases at 1% per year until doubling after 70 years. Results are compared to the GFDL CM2.1 climate model, which has somewhat similar physics but coarser resolution. The simulated climate in CM2.5 shows marked improvement over many regions, especially the tropics, including a reduction in the double ITCZ and an improved simulation of ENSO. Regional precipitation features are much improved. The Indian monsoon and Amazonian rainfall are also substantially more realistic in CM2.5. The response of CM2.5 to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 has many features in common with CM2.1, with some notable differences. For example, rainfall changes over the Mediterranean appear to be tightly linked to topography in CM2.5, in contrast to CM2.1 where the response is more spatially homogeneous. In addition, in CM2.5 the near-surface ocean warms substantially in the high latitudes of the Southern Ocean, in contrast to simulations using CM2.1.

10. Dunne, John P., Jasmin John, Alistair Adcroft, Stephen M Griffies, Robert W Hallberg, Elena Shevliakova, Ronald J Stouffer, William F Cooke, Krista A Dunne, Matthew J Harrison, John P Krasting, Sergey Malyshev, P C D Milly, Peter Phillipps, Lori T Sentman, Bonita L Samuels, Michael J Spelman, Michael Winton, Andrew T Wittenberg, and Niki Zadeh, October 2012: GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models Part I: Physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate, 25(19), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00560.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models.

11. Griffies, Stephen M., and A M Treguier, in press: Ocean circulation models and modelling. In Ocean Circulation and Climate, 2nd edition, , . 1/12.
12. Griffies, Stephen M., and R J Greatbatch, July 2012: Physical processes that impact the evolution of global mean sea level in ocean climate models. Ocean Modelling, 51, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.04.003.
    [ Abstract ]

    This paper develops an analysis framework to identify how physical processes, as represented in ocean climate models, impact the evolution of global mean sea level. The formulation utilizes the coarse grained equations appropriate for an ocean model, and starts from the vertically integrated mass conservation equation in its Lagrangian form. Global integration of this kinematic equation results in an evolution equation for global mean sea level that depends on two physical processes: boundary fluxes of mass and the non-Boussinesq steric effect. The non-Boussinesq steric effect itself contains contributions from boundary fluxes of buoyancy; interior buoyancy changes associated with parameterized subgrid scale processes; and motion across pressure surfaces. The non-Boussinesq steric effect can be diagnosed in either volume conserving Boussinesq or mass conserving non-Boussinesq ocean circulation models, with differences found to be negligible. We find that surface heating is the dominant term affecting sea level arising from buoyancy fluxes, contributing to a net positive tendency to global mean sea level, largely due to low latitude heating and because the thermal expansion coefficient is much larger in the tropics than high latitudes. Subgrid scale effects from parameterized quasi-Stokes transport, vertical diffusion, cabbeling, and thermobaricity are also found to be significant, each resulting in a reduction of global mean sea level. Sea level rise through low latitude heating is largely compensated by a sea level drop from poleward eddy heat transport and ocean mixing. Spatial variations in the thermal expansion coefficient provide an essential modulation of how physical effects from mixing and eddy induced advective transport impact global mean sea level.

13. Ilicak, M, Alistair Adcroft, Stephen M Griffies, and Robert W Hallberg, February 2012: Spurious dianeutral mixing and the role of momentum closure. Ocean Modelling, 45-46, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.10.003.
    [ Abstract ]

    This paper examines spurious dianeutral transport within a suite of ocean models (GOLD, MITgcm, MOM, and ROMS). We quantify such transport through a global diagnostic that computes the reference potential energy, whose evolution arises solely through transport between density classes. Previous studies have focused on the importance of accurate tracer advection schemes in reducing the spurious transport and closure. The present study highlights complementary issues associated with momentum transport. Spurious dianeutral transport is shown to be directly proportional to the lateral grid Reynolds number (ReΔ), with such transport significantly reduced when ReΔ<10. Simulations with the isopycnal model GOLD provide a benchmark for the smallest level of spurious dianeutral transport realizable in our model suite. For idealized simulations with a linear equation of state, GOLD exhibits identically zero spurious dianeutral mixing, and thus maintains a constant reference potential energy when all physical mixing processes are omitted. Amongst the non-isopycnal models tested in idealized simulations, ROMS generally produces smaller spurious dianeutral mixing than MITgcm or MOM, since ROMS makes use of a higher order upwind-biased scheme for momentum transport that enforces a small ReΔ. In contrast, MITgcm and MOM both employ unbiased (centered) discretizations of momentum transport, and therefore rely on lateral friction operators to control the grid Reynolds number. We find that a lateral shear-dependent Smagorinsky viscosity provides an effective means to locally reduce ReΔ, and thus to reduce spurious dianeutral transport in MITgcm and MOM. In addition to four idealized simulations, we quantify spurious dianeutral transport in realistic global ocean climate simulations using GOLD and MOM with a realistic equation of state for seawater, both with and without mesoscale eddies in the resolved flow field. The GOLD simulations have detectable levels of spurious cabbeling from along isopycnal advective truncation errors. Significantly larger spurious dianeutral transport arises in a non-eddying MOM simulation. In an eddying MOM simulation, spurious dianeutral transport is larger still but is reduced by increasing momentum friction.

14. Lorbacher, K, S J Marsland, J A Church, Stephen M Griffies, and D Stammer, June 2012: Rapid barotropic sea-level rise from ice-sheet melting. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, C06003, doi:10.1029/2011JC007733.
    [ Abstract ]

    Sea-level rise associated with idealized Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet melting events is examined using a global coupled ocean sea-ice model that has a free surface formulation and thus can simulate fast barotropic motions. The perturbation experiments follow the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment (CORE) version III. All regions of the global ocean experience a sea-level rise within 7-8 days of the initialization of a polar meltwater input of 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). The fast adjustment contrasts sharply with the slower adjustment associated with the smaller steric sea-level evolution that is also connected with melt events. The global mean sea-level rises by 9 mm yr−1 when this forcing is applied either from Greenland or Antarctica. Nevertheless, horizontal inter-basin gradients in sea level remain. For climate adaption in low-lying coastal and island regions, it is critical that the barotropic sea-level signal associated with melt events is taken into consideration, as it leads to a fast sea-level rise from melting ice-sheets for the bulk of the global ocean. A linear relation between sea-level rise and global meltwater input is further supported by experiments in which idealized melting occurs only in a region east or west of the Antarctic Peninsula, and when melting rates are varied between 0.01 Sv and 1.0 Sv. The results indicate that in ocean models that do not explicitly represent the barotropic signal, the barotropic component of sea-level rise can be added off-line to the simulated steric signal.

15. Donner, Leo J., Bruce Wyman, Richard S Hemler, Larry W Horowitz, Yi Ming, Ming Zhao, J-C Golaz, Paul Ginoux, Shian-Jiann Lin, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, John Austin, G Alaka, William F Cooke, Thomas L Delworth, Stuart Freidenreich, C Tony Gordon, Stephen M Griffies, Isaac M Held, William J Hurlin, Stephen A Klein, Thomas R Knutson, Amy R Langenhorst, Hyun-Chul Lee, Yanluan Lin, B I Magi, Sergey Malyshev, P C D Milly, Vaishali Naik, Mary Jo Nath, R Pincus, Jeff J Ploshay, V Ramaswamy, Charles J Seman, Elena Shevliakova, Joseph J Sirutis, William F Stern, Ronald J Stouffer, R John Wilson, Michael Winton, Andrew T Wittenberg, and Fanrong Zeng, July 2011: The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL Global Coupled Model CM3. Journal of Climate, 24(13), doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3955.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. The goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol-cloud interactions, chemistry-climate interactions, and coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. The model is also designed to serve as the physical-system component of earth-system models and models for decadal prediction in the near-term future, for example, through improved simulations in tropical land precipitation relative to earlier-generation GFDL models. This paper describes the dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component (AM3) of this model. Relative to GFDL AM2, AM3 includes new treatments of deep and shallow cumulus convection, cloud-droplet activation by aerosols, sub-grid variability of stratiform vertical velocities for droplet activation, and atmospheric chemistry driven by emissions with advective, convective, and turbulent transport. AM3 employs a cubed-sphere implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with eco-system dynamics and hydrology. Most basic circulation features in AM3 are simulated as realistically, or more so, than in AM2. In particular, dry biases have been reduced over South America. In coupled mode, the simulation of Arctic sea ice concentration has improved. AM3 aerosol optical depths, scattering properties, and surface clear-sky downward shortwave radiation are more realistic than in AM2. The simulation of marine stratocumulus decks and the intensity distributions of precipitation remain problematic, as in AM2. The last two decades of the 20th century warm in CM3 by .32°C relative to 1881-1920. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies analyses of observations show warming of .56°C and .52°C, respectively, over this period. CM3 includes anthropogenic cooling by aerosol cloud interactions, and its warming by late 20th century is somewhat less realistic than in CM2.1, which warmed .66°C but did not include aerosol cloud interactions. The improved simulation of the direct aerosol effect (apparent in surface clear-sky downward radiation) in CM3 evidently acts in concert with its simulation of cloud-aerosol interactions to limit greenhouse gas warming in a way that is consistent with observed global temperature changes.

16. Downes, S M., Anand Gnanadesikan, Stephen M Griffies, and Jorge L Sarmiento, September 2011: Water mass exchange in the Southern Ocean in coupled climate models. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 41(9), doi:10.1175/2011JPO4586.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    We estimate water mass transformation rates resulting from surface buoyancy fluxes and interior diapycnal fluxes in the region south of 30°S in the ECCO model based state estimation and three free-running coupled climate models. The meridional transport of deep and intermediate waters across 30°S agrees well between models and observationally based estimates in the Atlantic Ocean, but not in the Indian and Pacific where the model based estimates are much smaller. Associated with this, in the models about half the southward flowing deep water is converted into lighter waters and half to denser bottom waters, whereas the observationally-based estimates convert most of the inflowing deep water to bottom waters. In the models, both Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) are formed primarily via an interior diapycnal transformation rather than being transformed at the surface via heat or freshwater fluxes. Given the small vertical diffusivity specified in the models in this region, we conclude that other processes such as cabbeling and thermobaricity must be playing an important role in water mass transformation. Finally, in the models, the largest contribution of the surface buoyancy fluxes in the Southern Ocean is to convert Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) into lighter Sub-Antarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW).

17. Fox-Kemper, B, G Danabasoglu, R Ferrari, Stephen M Griffies, Robert W Hallberg, M M Holland, M E Maltrud, S L Peacock, and Bonita L Samuels, July 2011: Parameterization of mixed layer eddies. III: Implementation and impact in global ocean climate simulations. Ocean Modelling, 39(1-2), doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.09.002.
    [ Abstract ]

    A parameterization for the restratification by finite-amplitude, submesoscale, mixed layer eddies, formulated as an overturning streamfunction, has been recently proposed to approximate eddy fluxes of density and other tracers. Here, the technicalities of implementing the parameterization in the coarse-resolution ocean component of global climate models are made explicit, and the primary impacts on model solutions of implementing the parameterization are discussed. Three global ocean general circulation models including this parameterization are contrasted with control simulations lacking the parameterization. The MLE parameterization behaves as expected and fairly consistently in models differing in discretization, boundary layer mixing, resolution, and other parameterizations. The primary impact of the parameterization is a shoaling of the mixed layer, with the largest effect in polar winter regions. Secondary impacts include strengthening the Atlantic meridional overturning while reducing its variability, reducing CFC and tracer ventilation, modest changes to sea surface temperature and air-sea fluxes, and an apparent reduction of sea ice basal melting.

18. Galbraith, E D., E Y Kwon, Anand Gnanadesikan, K B Rodgers, Stephen M Griffies, D Bianchi, Jorge L Sarmiento, John P Dunne, J Simeon, Richard D Slater, Andrew T Wittenberg, and Isaac M Held, August 2011: Climate Variability and Radiocarbon in the CM2Mc Earth System Model. Journal of Climate, 24(16), doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3919.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    The distribution of radiocarbon (¹⁴C) in the ocean and atmosphere has fluctuated on timescales ranging from seasons to millennia. It is thought that these fluctuations partly reflect variability in the climate system, offering a rich potential source of information to help understand mechanisms of past climate change. Here, a long simulation with a new, coupled model is used to explore the mechanisms that redistribute ¹⁴C within the Earth system on inter-annual to centennial timescales. The model, CM2Mc, is a lower-resolution version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's CM2M model, uses no flux adjustments, and incorporates a simple prognostic ocean biogeochemistry model including ¹⁴C. The atmospheric ¹⁴C and radiative boundary conditions are held constant, so that the oceanic distribution of ¹⁴C is only a function of internal climate variability. The simulation displays previously-described relationships between tropical sea surface ¹⁴C and the model-equivalents of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indonesian Throughflow. Sea surface ¹⁴C variability also arises from fluctuations in the circulations of the subarctic Pacific and Southern Ocean, including North Pacific decadal variability, and episodic ventilation events in the Weddell Sea that are reminiscent of the Weddell Polynya of 1974–1976. Interannual variability in the air-sea balance of ¹⁴C is dominated by exchange within the belt of intense Southern Westerly winds, rather than at the convective locations where the surface ¹⁴C is most variable. Despite significant interannual variability, the simulated impact on air-sea exchange is an order of magnitude smaller than the recorded atmospheric ¹⁴C variability of the past millennium. This result partly reflects the importance of variability in the production rate of ¹⁴C in determining atmospheric ¹⁴C, but may also reflect an underestimate of natural climate variability, particularly in the Southern Westerly winds.

19. Griffies, Stephen M., Michael Winton, Leo J Donner, Larry W Horowitz, S M Downes, Riccardo Farneti, Anand Gnanadesikan, William J Hurlin, Hyun-Chul Lee, Zhi Liang, J B Palter, Bonita L Samuels, Andrew T Wittenberg, Bruce Wyman, J Yin, and Niki Zadeh, July 2011: The GFDL CM3 Coupled Climate Model: Characteristics of the ocean and sea ice simulations. Journal of Climate, 24(13), doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3964.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    This paper documents time mean simulation characteristics from the ocean and sea ice components in a new coupled climate model developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The climate model, known as CM3, is formulated with effectively the same ocean and sea ice components as the earlier GFDL climate model, CM2.1, yet with extensive developments made to the atmosphere and land model components. Both CM2.1 and CM3 show stable mean climate indices, such as large scale circulation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). There are notable improvements in the CM3 climate simulation relative to CM2.1, including a modified SST bias pattern and reduced biases in the Arctic sea ice cover. We anticipate SST differences between CM2.1 and CM3 in lower latitudes through analysis of the atmospheric fluxes at the ocean surface in corresponding Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. In contrast, SST changes in the high latitudes are dominated by ocean and sea ice effects absent in AMIP simulations. The ocean interior simulation in CM3 is generally warmer than CM2.1, which adversely impacts the interior biases.

20. Griffies, Stephen M., and G Danabasoglu, May 2011: Physical ocean fields in CMIP5. Clivar Exchanges, 16(2), 32-34.
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21. Griffies, Stephen M., July 2011: Preface to the Ocean Modelling special issue on ocean eddies. Ocean Modelling, 39(1-2), 1.
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22. Herzfeld, M, M Schmidt, Stephen M Griffies, and Zhi Liang, February 2011: Realistic test cases for limited area ocean modelling. Ocean Modelling, 37(1-2), doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.12.008.
    [ Abstract ]

    The applicability of Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4p1) as a code base to study regional physical oceanographic phenomena is presented, highlighting features recently implemented for use in limited area domains. Central to the successful operation of limited area model applications are the inclusion of a comprehensive suite of open boundary conditions, turbulence closure and vertical discretization. The open boundary problem, in particular, is considered and we present the open boundary condition implementation and performance in limited area model configurations corresponding to three realistic test cases. These tests represent typical configurations the physical oceanographer may encounter, and consist of (1) a coastal shelf model application where a two-tiered model configuration is used for down-scaling from a coarse grid model to supply sufficiently resolved boundary values for active cross-shelf open boundaries of a regional model; (2) tidal response of a gulf with one open boundary across the mouth of the gulf; (3) response of a coastal region to the passage of a tropical cyclone, where the open boundaries behave in primarily a passive capacity. Although the code base used in the test cases is MOM4p1, emphasis is placed on general features of the tests that are necessary for the scientific and operational use of any limited area model, hence key findings may be applied to limited area models in general.

23. Stock, Charles A., Thomas L Delworth, John P Dunne, Stephen M Griffies, R Rykaczewski, Jorge L Sarmiento, Ronald J Stouffer, and Gabriel A Vecchi, et al., January 2011: On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources. Progress in Oceanography, 88(1-4), doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2010.09.001.
    [ Abstract ]

    The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time-series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.

24. Yin, J, J E Overland, Stephen M Griffies, A Hu, J L Russell, and Ronald J Stouffer, August 2011: Different magnitudes of projected subsurface ocean warming around Greenland and Antarctica. Nature Geoscience, 4(8), doi:10.1038/ngeo1189.
    [ Abstract ]

    The observed acceleration of outlet glaciers and ice flows in Greenland and Antarctica is closely linked to ocean warming, especially in the subsurface layer. Accurate projections of ice-sheet dynamics and global sea-level rise therefore require information of future ocean warming in the vicinity of the large ice sheets. Here we use a set of 19 state-of-the-art climate models to quantify this ocean warming in the next two centuries. We find that in response to a mid-range increase in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, the subsurface oceans surrounding the two polar ice sheets at depths of 200–500 m warm substantially compared with the observed changes thus far6, 7, 8. Model projections suggest that over the course of the twenty-first century, the maximum ocean warming around Greenland will be almost double the global mean, with a magnitude of 1.7–2.0 °C. By contrast, ocean warming around Antarctica will be only about half as large as global mean warming, with a magnitude of 0.5–0.6 °C. A more detailed evaluation indicates that ocean warming is controlled by different mechanisms around Greenland and Antarctica. We conclude that projected subsurface ocean warming could drive significant increases in ice-mass loss, and heighten the risk of future large sea-level rise.

25. Farneti, Riccardo, Thomas L Delworth, Anthony Rosati, Stephen M Griffies, and Fanrong Zeng, July 2010: The role of mesoscale eddies in the rectification of the Southern Ocean response to climate change. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 40(7), doi:10.1175/2010JPO4353.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    Simulations from a fine-resolution global coupled model, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.4 (CM2.4), are presented, and the results are compared with a coarse version of the same coupled model, CM2.1, under idealized climate change scenarios. A particular focus is given to the dynamical response of the Southern Ocean and the role played by the eddies—parameterized or permitted— in setting the residual circulation and meridional density structure. Compared to the case in which eddies are parameterized and consistent with recent observational and idealized modeling studies, the eddy-permitting integrations of CM2.4 show that eddy activity is greatly energized with increasing mechanical and buoyancy forcings, buffering the ocean to atmospheric changes, and the magnitude of the residual oceanic circulation response is thus greatly reduced. Although compensation is far from being perfect, changes in poleward eddy fluxes partially compensate for the enhanced equatorward Ekman transport, leading to weak modifications in local isopycnal slopes, transport by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and overturning circulation. Since the presence of active ocean eddy dynamics buffers the oceanic response to atmospheric changes, the associated atmospheric response to those reduced ocean changes is also weakened. Further, it is hypothesized that present numerical approaches for the parameterization of eddy-induced transports could be too restrictive and prevent coarse-resolution models from faithfully representing the eddy response to variability and change in the forcing fields.

26. Ferrari, R, Stephen M Griffies, A J George Nurser, and Geoffrey K Vallis, April 2010: A boundary-value problem for the parameterized mesoscale eddy transport. Ocean Modelling, 32(3-4), doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.01.004.
    [ Abstract ]

    We present a physically and numerically motivated boundary-value problem for each vertical ocean column, whose solution yields a parameterized mesoscale eddy-induced transport streamfunction. The new streamfunction is a nonlocal function of the properties of the fluid column. It is constructed to have a low baroclinic mode vertical structure and to smoothly transition through regions of weak stratification such as boundary layers or mode waters. It requires no matching conditions or regularization in unstratified regions; it satisfies boundary conditions of zero transport at the ocean surface and bottom; and it provides a sink of available potential energy for each vertical seawater column, but not necessarily at each location within the column. Numerical implementation of the methodology requires the solution of a one-dimensional tridiagonal problem for each vertical column. To illustrate the approach, we present an analytical example based on the nonlinear Eady problem and two numerical simulations.

27. Griffies, Stephen M., Alistair Adcroft, Anand Gnanadesikan, Robert W Hallberg, Matthew J Harrison, Sonya Legg, C M Little, M Nikurashin, A Pirani, Bonita L Samuels, J Robert Toggweiler, and Geoffrey K Vallis, et al., September 2010: Problems and prospects in large-scale ocean circulation models In Ocean Obs '09, 21-25 September, Venice, Italy, ESA Special Publication, doi:10.5270/OceanObs09.cwp.38.
    [ Abstract ]

    We overview problems and prospects in ocean circulation models, with emphasis on certain developments aiming to enhance the physical integrity and flexibility of large-scale models used to study global climate. We also consider elements of observational measures rendering information to help evaluate simulations and to guide development priorities. http://www.oceanobs09.net/blog/?p=88

28. Hurrell, J W., Thomas L Delworth, Stephen M Griffies, and Anthony Rosati, et al., September 2010: Decadal Climate Prediction: Opportunities and Challenges, 2010 In OceanObs’09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society, Vol. 2, ESA Publication, doi:10.5270/OceanObs09.cwp.45.
29. Kopp, R E., J X Mitrovica, Stephen M Griffies, J Yin, C C Hay, and Ronald J Stouffer, et al., December 2010: The impact of Greenland melt on local sea levels: a partially coupled analysis of dynamic and static equilibrium effects in idealized water-hosing experiments. Climatic Change, 103(3-4), doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9935-1.
    [ Abstract ]

    Local sea level can deviate from mean global sea level because of both dynamic sea level (DSL) effects, resulting from oceanic and atmospheric circulation and temperature and salinity distributions, and changes in the static equilibrium (SE) sea level configuration, produced by the gravitational, elastic, and rotational effects of mass redistribution. Both effects will contribute to future sea level change. To compare their magnitude, we simulated the effects of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melt by conducting idealized North Atlantic “water-hosing” experiments in a climate model unidirectionally coupled to a SE sea level model. At current rates of GIS melt, we find that geographic SE patterns should be challenging but possible to detect above dynamic variability. At higher melt rates, we find that DSL trends are strongest in the western North Atlantic, while SE effects will dominate in most of the ocean when melt exceeds ~20 cm equivalent sea level.

30. Rienecker, M M., Stephen M Griffies, and Anthony Rosati, et al., September 2010: Synthesis and Assimilation Systems: Essential Adjuncts to the Global Ocean Observing System In OceanObs’09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society, Vol. 2, ESA Publication, doi:doi:10.5270/OceanObs09.pp.31.
31. Yin, J, Ronald J Stouffer, Michael J Spelman, and Stephen M Griffies, January 2010: Evaluating the uncertainty induced by the virtual salt flux assumption in climate situations and future projections. Journal of Climate, 23(1), doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3084.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    The unphysical virtual salt flux (VSF) formulation widely used in the ocean component of climate models has the potential to cause systematic and significant biases in modeling the climate system and projecting its future evolution. Here a freshwater flux (FWF) and a virtual salt flux version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1) are used to evaluate and quantify the uncertainties induced by the VSF formulation. Both unforced and forced runs with the two model versions are performed and compared in detail. It is found that the differences between the two versions are generally small or statistically insignificant in the unforced control runs and in the runs with a small external forcing. In response to a large external forcing, however, some biases in the VSF version become significant, especially the responses of regional salinity and global sea level. However, many fundamental aspects of the responses differ only quantitatively between the two versions. An unexpected result is the distinctly different ENSO responses. Under a strong external freshwater forcing, the great enhancement of the ENSO variability simulated by the FWF version does not occur in the VSF version and is caused by the overexpansion of the top model layer. In summary, the principle assumption behind using virtual salt flux is not seriously violated and the VSF model has the ability to simulate the current climate and project near-term climate evolution. For some special studies such as a large hosing experiment, however, both the VSF formulation and the use of the FWF in the geopotential coordinate ocean model could have some deficiencies and one should be cautious to avoid them.

32. Yin, J, Stephen M Griffies, and Ronald J Stouffer, September 2010: Spatial variability of sea-level rise in 21st century projections. Journal of Climate, 23(17), doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3533.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    A set of state-of-the-science climate models are used to investigate global sea level rise (SLR) patterns induced by ocean dynamics in twenty-first-century climate projections. The identified robust features include bipolar and bihemisphere seesaws in the basin-wide SLR, dipole patterns in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and a beltlike pattern in the Southern Ocean. The physical and dynamical mechanisms that cause these patterns are investigated in detail using version 2.1 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model (CM2.1). Under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the steric sea level changes relative to the global mean (the local part) in different ocean basins are attributed to differential heating and salinity changes of various ocean layers and associated physical processes. As a result of these changes, water tends to move from the ocean interior to continental shelves. In the North Atlantic, sea level rises north of the Gulf Stream but falls to the south. The dipole pattern is induced by a weakening of the meridional overturning circulation. This weakening leads to a local steric SLR east of North America, which drives more waters toward the shelf, directly impacting northeastern North America. An opposite dipole occurs in the North Pacific. The dynamic SLR east of Japan is linked to a strong steric effect in the upper ocean and a poleward expansion of the subtropical gyre. In the Southern Ocean, the beltlike pattern is dominated by the baroclinic process during the twenty-first century, while the barotropic response of sea level to wind stress anomalies is significantly delayed.

33. Griffies, Stephen M., Robert W Hallberg, A Pirani, Bonita L Samuels, and Michael Winton, et al., January 2009: Coordinated ocean-ice reference experiments (COREs). Ocean Modelling, 26(1-2), doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.08.007.
    [ Abstract ]

    Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs) are presented as a tool to explore the behaviour of global ocean-ice models under forcing from a common atmospheric dataset. We highlight issues arising when designing coupled global ocean and sea ice experiments, such as difficulties formulating a consistent forcing methodology and experimental protocol. Particular focus is given to the hydrological forcing, the details of which are key to realizing simulations with stable meridional overturning circulations. The atmospheric forcing from [Large, W., Yeager, S., 2004. Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and sea-ice models: the data sets and flux climatologies. NCAR Technical Note: NCAR/TN-460+STR. CGD Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research] was developed for coupled-ocean and sea ice models. We found it to be suitable for our purposes, even though its evaluation originally focussed more on the ocean than on the sea-ice. Simulations with this atmospheric forcing are presented from seven global ocean-ice models using the CORE-I design (repeating annual cycle of atmospheric forcing for 500 years). These simulations test the hypothesis that global ocean-ice models run under the same atmospheric state produce qualitatively similar simulations. The validity of this hypothesis is shown to depend on the chosen diagnostic. The CORE simulations provide feedback to the fidelity of the atmospheric forcing and model configuration, with identification of biases promoting avenues for forcing dataset and/or model development.

34. Griffies, Stephen M., Alistair Adcroft, Ventakramani Balaji, Robert W Hallberg, Sonya Legg, T Martin, and A Pirani, et al., February 2009: Sampling Physical Ocean Field in WCRP CMIP5 Simulations: CLIVAR Working Group on Ocean Model Development (WGOMD) Committee on CMIP5 Ocean Model Output, International CLIVAR Project Office, CLIVAR Publication Series No. 137, 56pp.
    [ PDF ]
35. Griffies, Stephen M., December 2009: Science of ocean climate models In Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences, 2nd edition, Elsevier, doi:10.1016/B978-012374473-9.00714-1.
36. Legg, Sonya, Tal Ezer, Stephen M Griffies, Robert W Hallberg, and L Jackson, et al., May 2009: Improving oceanic overflow representation in climate models: The gravity current entrainment climate process team. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(5), doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2667.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    Oceanic overflows are bottom-trapped density currents originating in semienclosed basins, such as the Nordic seas, or on continental shelves, such as the Antarctic shelf. Overflows are the source of most of the abyssal waters, and therefore play an important role in the large-scale ocean circulation, forming a component of the sinking branch of the thermohaline circulation. As they descend the continental slope, overflows mix vigorously with the surrounding oceanic waters, changing their density and transport significantly. These mixing processes occur on spatial scales well below the resolution of ocean climate models, with the result that deep waters and deep western boundary currents are simulated poorly. The Gravity Current Entrainment Climate Process Team was established by the U.S. Climate Variability and Prediction (CLIVAR) Program to accelerate the development and implementation of improved representations of overflows within large-scale climate models, bringing together climate model developers with those conducting observational, numerical, and laboratory process studies of overflows. Here, the organization of the Climate Process Team is described, and a few of the successes and lessons learned during this collaboration are highlighted, with some emphasis on the well-observed Mediterranean overflow. The Climate Process Team has developed several different overflow parameterizations, which are examined in a hierarchy of ocean models, from comparatively well-resolved regional models to the largest-scale global climate models.

37. Griffies, Stephen M., and Alistair Adcroft, 2008: Formulating the equations of ocean models In Ocean Modeling in an Eddying Regime, Geophysical Monograph 177, M. W. Hecht, and H. Hasumi, eds., Washington, DC, American Geophysical Union, 281-318.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    We formulate mathematical equations describing the thermo-hydrodynamics of the ocean and introduce certain numerical methods employed by models used for ocean simulations.

38. Griffies, Stephen M., H Banks, and A Pirani, 2008: Furthering the science of ocean climate modelling. Clivar Exchanges, 13(1), 281-318.
    [ PDF ]
39. Pirani, A, Stephen M Griffies, and H Banks, 2008: Report from the CLIVAR Working Group on ocean model development (WGOMD). Clivar Exchanges, 13(1), 30-32.
    [ PDF ]
40. Gnanadesikan, Anand, Stephen M Griffies, and Bonita L Samuels, 2007: Effects in a climate model of slope tapering in neutral physics schemes. Ocean Modelling, 16(1-2), doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2006.06.004.
    [ Abstract ]

    In many global ocean climate models, mesoscale eddies are parameterized as along isopycnal diffusion and eddy-induced advection (or equivalently skew-diffusion). The eddy-induced advection flattens isopycnals and acts as a sink of available potential energy, whereas the isopycnal diffusion mixes tracers along neutral directions. While much effort has gone into estimating diffusivities associated with this closure, less attention has been paid to the details of how this closure (which tries to flatten isopycnals) interacts with the mixed layer (in which vertical mixing tries to drive the isopycnals vertical). In order to maintain numerical stability, models often stipulate a maximum slope S_max which in combination with the thickness diffusivity A_gm defines a maximum eddy-induced advective transport A_gm*S_max. In this paper, we examine the impact of changing S_max within the GFDL global coupled climate model. We show that this parameter produces significant changes in wintertime mixed layer depth, with implications for wintertime temperatures in key regions, the distribution of precipitation, and the vertical structure of heat uptake. Smaller changes are seen in details of ventilation and currents, and even smaller changes as regards the overall hydrography. The results suggest that not only the value of the coefficient, but the details of the tapering scheme, need to be considered when comparing isopycnal mixing schemes in models.

41. Griffies, Stephen M., C Böning, and A M Treguier, 2007: Design considerations for coordinated ocean-ice reference experiments. Flux News, 3, 3-5.
    [ PDF ]
42. Griffies, Stephen M., Matthew J Harrison, Ronald C Pacanowski, and Anthony Rosati, 2007: Ocean modelling with MOM. Clivar Exchanges, 12(3), 3-5, 13.
    [ PDF ]
43. Delworth, Thomas L., Anthony J Broccoli, Anthony Rosati, Ronald J Stouffer, Ventakramani Balaji, J A Beesley, William F Cooke, Keith W Dixon, John P Dunne, Krista A Dunne, J W Durachta, Kirsten L Findell, Paul Ginoux, Anand Gnanadesikan, C Tony Gordon, Stephen M Griffies, Rich Gudgel, Matthew J Harrison, Isaac M Held, Richard S Hemler, Larry W Horowitz, Stephen A Klein, Thomas R Knutson, P J Kushner, Amy R Langenhorst, Hyun-Chul Lee, Shian-Jiann Lin, Jian Lu, Sergey Malyshev, P C D Milly, V Ramaswamy, J L Russell, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, Elena Shevliakova, Joseph J Sirutis, Michael J Spelman, William F Stern, Michael Winton, Andrew T Wittenberg, Bruce Wyman, Fanrong Zeng, and Rong Zhang, 2006: GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics. Journal of Climate, 19(5), doi:10.1175/JCLI3629.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Two versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2° latitude × 2.5° longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1° in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30° becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3° at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments. The control simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic. Both models have been used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/). Manuscript received 8 December 2004, in final form 18 March 2005

44. Gerdes, R, William J Hurlin, and Stephen M Griffies, 2006: Sensitivity of a global ocean model to increased run-off from Greenland. Ocean Modelling, 12(3-4), doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2005.08.003.
    [ Abstract ]

    We study the reaction of a global ocean–sea ice model to an increase of fresh water input into the northern North Atlantic under different surface boundary conditions, ranging from simple restoring of surface salinity to the use of an energy balance model (EBM) for the atmosphere. The anomalous fresh water flux is distributed around Greenland, reflecting increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increasing fresh water export from the Arctic Ocean. Depending on the type of surface boundary condition, the large circulation reacts with a slow-down of overturning and gyre circulations. Restoring of the total or mean surface salinity prevents a large scale redistribution of the salinity field that is apparent under mixed boundary conditions and with the EBM. The control run under mixed boundary conditions exhibits large and unrealistic oscillations of the meridional overturning. Although the reaction to the fresh water flux anomaly is similar to the response with the EBM, mixed boundary conditions must thus be considered unreliable. With the EBM, the waters in the deep western boundary current initially become saltier and a new fresh water mass forms in the north-eastern North Atlantic in response to the fresh water flux anomaly around Greenland. After an accumulation period of several decades duration, this new North East Atlantic Intermediate Water spreads towards the western boundary and opens a new southward pathway at intermediate depths along the western boundary for the fresh waters of high northern latitudes.

45. Gnanadesikan, Anand, Keith W Dixon, Stephen M Griffies, Ventakramani Balaji, M Barreiro, J A Beesley, William F Cooke, Thomas L Delworth, R Gerdes, Matthew J Harrison, Isaac M Held, William J Hurlin, Hyun-Chul Lee, Zhi Liang, G Nong, Ronald C Pacanowski, Anthony Rosati, J L Russell, Bonita L Samuels, Qian Song, Michael J Spelman, Ronald J Stouffer, C Sweeney, Gabriel A Vecchi, Michael Winton, Andrew T Wittenberg, Fanrong Zeng, Rong Zhang, and John P Dunne, 2006: GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part II: The baseline ocean simulation. Journal of Climate, 19(5), doi:10.1175/JCLI3630.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    The current generation of coupled climate models run at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) as part of the Climate Change Science Program contains ocean components that differ in almost every respect from those contained in previous generations of GFDL climate models. This paper summarizes the new physical features of the models and examines the simulations that they produce. Of the two new coupled climate model versions 2.1 (CM2.1) and 2.0 (CM2.0), the CM2.1 model represents a major improvement over CM2.0 in most of the major oceanic features examined, with strikingly lower drifts in hydrographic fields such as temperature and salinity, more realistic ventilation of the deep ocean, and currents that are closer to their observed values. Regional analysis of the differences between the models highlights the importance of wind stress in determining the circulation, particularly in the Southern Ocean. At present, major errors in both models are associated with Northern Hemisphere Mode Waters and outflows from overflows, particularly the Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea.

46. Jackett, D R., T J McDougall, R Feistel, D Wright, and Stephen M Griffies, 2006: Algorithms for Density, Potential Temperature, Conservative Temperature, and the Freezing Temperature of Seawater. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 23(12), doi:10.1175/JTECH1946.1.
    [ Abstract ]

    Algorithms are presented for density, potential temperature, conservative temperature, and the freezing temperature of seawater. The algorithms for potential temperature and density (in terms of potential temperature) are updates to routines recently published by McDougall et al., while the algorithms involving conservative temperature and the freezing temperatures of seawater are new. The McDougall et al. algorithms were based on the thermodynamic potential of Feistel and Hagen; the algorithms in this study are all based on the “new extended Gibbs thermodynamic potential of seawater” of Feistel. The algorithm for the computation of density in terms of salinity, pressure, and conservative temperature produces errors in density and in the corresponding thermal expansion coefficient of the same order as errors for the density equation using potential temperature, both being twice as accurate as the International Equation of State when compared with Feistel’s new equation of state. An inverse function relating potential temperature to conservative temperature is also provided. The difference between practical salinity and absolute salinity is discussed, and it is shown that the present practice of essentially ignoring the difference between these two different salinities is unlikely to cause significant errors in ocean models.

47. Griffies, Stephen M., 2005: Some ocean model fundamentals In Ocean Weather Forecasting: An Integrated View of Oceanography, Berlin, Germany, Springer, 19-74.
    [ Abstract ]

    The purpose of these lectures is to present elements of the equations and algorithms used in numerical models of the large-scale ocean circulation. Such models generally integrate the ocean's primitive equations, which are based on Newton's Laws applied to a continuum fluid under hydrostatic balance in a spherical geometry, along with linear irreversible thermodynamics and subgrid scale (SGS) parameterizations. During formulations of both the kinematics and dynamics, we highlight issues related to the use of a generalized vertical coordinate. The vertical coordinate is arguably the most critical element determining how a model is designed and applications to which a model is of use.

48. Griffies, Stephen M., Anand Gnanadesikan, Keith W Dixon, John P Dunne, R Gerdes, Matthew J Harrison, Anthony Rosati, J L Russell, Bonita L Samuels, Michael J Spelman, Michael Winton, and Rong Zhang, 2005: Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations. Ocean Science, 1, 45-79.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4) of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1) tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2) partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3) more accurate equation of state, (4) three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5) incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6) neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7) staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8) anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9) parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10) incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11) transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical "virtual tracer flux" methods, (12) parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

49. Sweeney, C, Anand Gnanadesikan, Stephen M Griffies, Matthew J Harrison, Anthony Rosati, and Bonita L Samuels, 2005: Impacts of shortwave penetration depth on large-scale ocean circulation and heat transport. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 35(6), 1103-1119.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    The impact of changes in shortwave radiation penetration depth on the global ocean circulation and heat transport is studied using the GFDL Modular Ocean Model (MOM4) with two independent parameterizations that use ocean color to estimate the penetration depth of shortwave radiation. Ten to eighteen percent increases in the depth of 1% downwelling surface irradiance levels results in an increase in mixed layer depths of 3-20 m in the subtropical and tropical regions with no change at higher latitudes. While 1D models have predicted that sea surface temperatures at the equator would decrease with deeper penetration of solar irradiance, this study shows a warming, resulting in a 10% decrease in the required restoring heat flux needed to maintain climatological sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The decrease in the restoring heat flux is attributed to a slowdown in heat transport (5%) from the Tropics and an increase in the temperature of submixed layer waters being transported into the equatorial regions. Calculations were made using a simple relationship between mixed layer depth and meridional mass transport. When compared with model diagnostics, these calculations suggest that the slowdown in heat transport is primarily due to off-equatorial increases in mixed layer depths. At higher latitudes (5°-40°), higher restoring heat fluxes are needed to maintain sea surface temperatures because of deeper mixed layers and an increase in storage of heat below the mixed layer. This study offers a way to evaluate the changes in irradiance penetration depths in coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs and the potential effect that large-scale changes in chlorophyll a concentrations will have on ocean circulation.

50. Griffies, Stephen M., 2004: Fundamentals of Ocean Climate Models, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 518 pp.
    [ Abstract ]

    This book sets forth the physical, mathematical, and numerical foundations of computer models used to understand and predict the global ocean climate system. Aimed at students and researchers of ocean and climate science who seek to understand the physical content of ocean model equations and numerical methods for their solution, it is largely general in formulation and employs modern mathematical techniques. It also highlights certain areas of cutting-edge research. Stephen Griffies presents material that spans a broad spectrum of issues critical for modern ocean climate models. Topics are organized into parts consisting of related chapters, with each part largely self-contained. Early chapters focus on the basic equations arising from classical mechanics and thermodynamics used to rationalize ocean fluid dynamics. These equations are then cast into a form appropriate for numerical models of finite grid resolution. Basic discretization methods are described for commonly used classes of ocean climate models. The book proceeds to focus on the parameterization of phenomena occurring at scales unresolved by the ocean model, which represents a large part of modern oceanographic research. The final part provides a tutorial on the tensor methods that are used throughout the book, in a general and elegant fashion, to formulate the equations.

51. Griffies, Stephen M., Matthew J Harrison, Ronald C Pacanowski, and Anthony Rosati, 2004: A Technical Guide to MOM4, GFDL Ocean Group Technical Report No. 5, Princeton, NJ:: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 342 pp.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    This manual provides a detailed description of the analytical, numerical, and computational aspects of the MOM4 ocean model.

52. Griffies, Stephen M., 2003: An introduction to linear predictability analysis In Global Climate, Rodó, X., and F. A. Comín, eds., Berlin, Springer-Verlag, 80-101.
53. Griffies, Stephen M., 2003: An introduction to ocean climate modeling In Global Climate, Rodó, X., and F. A. Comín, eds., Berlin, Springer-Verlag, 55-79.
54. Griffies, Stephen M., Ronald C Pacanowski, M Schmidt, and Ventakramani Balaji, 2001: Tracer conservation with an explicit free surface method for z-coordinate ocean models. Monthly Weather Review, 129(5), 1081-1098.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    This paper details a free surface method using an explicit time stepping scheme for use in z-coordinate ocean models. One key property that makes the method especially suitable for climate simulations is its very stable numerical time stepping scheme, which allows for the use of a long density time step, as commonly employed with coarse-resolution rigid-lid models. Additionally, the effects of the undulating free surface height are directly incorporated into the baroclinic momentum and tracer equations. The novel issues related to local and global tracer conservation when allowing for the top cell to undulate are the focus of this work. The method presented here is quasi-conservative locally and globally of tracer when the baroclinic and tracer time steps are equal. Important issues relevant for using this method in regional as well as large-scale climate models are discussed and illustrated, and examples of scaling achieved on parallel computers provided.

55. Stocker, T F., Thomas L Delworth, Stephen M Griffies, Isaac M Held, V Ramaswamy, and Brian J Soden, et al., 2001: Physical climate processes and feedbacks In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 418-470.
56. Griffies, Stephen M., 2000: Review of "Ocean Modeling and Parameterization," E. P. Chassignet and J. Verron, eds., 1998, Kluwer Academic Publishers. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81(3), 591-593.
57. Griffies, Stephen M., C Böning, F O Bryan, E P Chassignet, R Gerdes, H Hasumi, A C Hirst, A M Treguier, and D Webb, 2000: Developments in ocean climate modelling. Ocean Modelling, 2, 123-192.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    This paper presents some research developments in primitive equation ocean models which could impact the ocean component of realistic global climate models aimed at large-scale, low frequency climate simulations and predictions. It is written primarily to an audience of modellers concerned with the ocean component of climate models, although not necessarily experts in the design and implementation of ocean model algorithms.

58. Griffies, Stephen M., and Robert W Hallberg, 2000: Biharmonic friction with a Smagorinsky-like viscosity for use in large-scale eddy-permitting ocean models. Monthly Weather Review, 128(8), 2935-2946.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    This paper discusses a numerical closure, motivated from the ideas of Smagorinsky, for use with a biharmonic operator. The result is a highly scale-selective, state-dependent friction operator for use in eddy-permitting geophysical fluid models. This friction should prove most useful for large-scale ocean models in which there are multiple regimes of geostrophic turbulence. Examples are provided from primitive equation geopotential and isopycnal-coordinate ocean models.

59. Griffies, Stephen M., Ronald C Pacanowski, and Robert W Hallberg, 2000: Spurious diapycnal mixing associated with advection in a z-coordinate ocean model. Monthly Weather Review, 128(3), 538-564.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    This paper discusses spurious diapycnal mixing associated with the transport of density in a z-coordinate ocean model. A general method, based on the work of Winters and collaborators, is employed for empirically diagnosing an effective diapycnal diffusivity corresponding to any numerical transport process. This method is then used to quantify the spurious mixing engendered by various numerical representations of advection. Both coarse and fine resolution examples are provided that illustrate the importance of adequately resolving the admitted scales of motion in order to maintain a small amount of mixing consistent with that measured within the ocean's pycnocline. Such resolution depends on details of the advection scheme, momentum and tracer dissipation, and grid resolution. Vertical transport processes, such as convective adjustment, act as yet another means to increase the spurious mixing introduced by dispersive errors from numerical advective fluxes.

60. Pacanowski, Ronald C., and Stephen M Griffies, 1999: The MOM3 Manual, GFDL Ocean Group Technical Report No. 4, Princeton, NJ: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 680 pp.
61. Schneider, T, and Stephen M Griffies, 1999: A conceptual framework for predictability studies. Journal of Climate, 12(10), 3133-3155.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    A conceptual framework is presented for a unified treatment of issues arising in a variety of predictability studies. The predictive power (PP), a predictability measure based on information-theoretical principles, lies at the center of the framework. The PP is invarient under linear coordinate transformations and applies to multivariate predictions irrespective of assumptions about the probability distribution of prediction errors. For univariate Gaussian predictions, the PP reduces to conventional predictability measures that are based upon the ratio of the rms error of a model prediction over the rms error of the climatological mean prediction. Since climatic variability on intraseasonal to interdecadal timescales follows an approximately Gaussian distribution, the emphasis of this paper is on multivariate Gaussian random variables. Predictable and unpredictable components of multivariate Gaussian systems can be distinguished by predictable component analysis, a procedure derived from discriminant analysis: seeking components with large PP leads to an eigenvalue problem, whose solution yields uncorrelated components that are ordered by PP from largest to smallest. In a discussion of the application of the PP and the predictable component analysis in different types of predictability studies, studies are considered that use either ensemble integrations of numerical models or autoregressive models fitted to observed or simulated data. An investigation of simulated multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic illustrates the proposed methodology. Reanalyzing an ensemble of integrations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled general circulation model confirms and refines earlier findings. With an autoregressive model fitted to a single integration of the same model, it is demonstrated that similar conclusions can be reached without resorting to computationally costly ensemble integrations.

62. Griffies, Stephen M., 1998: The Gent-McWilliams skew flux. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 28(5), 831-841.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    This paper formulates tracer stirring arising from the Gent-McWilliams (GM) eddy-induced transport in terms of a skew-diffusive flux. A skew-diffusive tracer flux is directed normal to the tracer gradient, which is in contrast to a diffusive tracer flux directed down the tracer gradient. Analysis of the GM skew flux provides an understanding of the physical mechanisms prescribed by GM stirring, which is complementary to the more familiar advective flux perspective. Additionally, it unifies the tracer mixing operators arising from Redi isoneutral diffusion and GM stirring. This perspective allows for a computationally efficient and simple manner in which to implement the GM closure in z-coordinate models. With this approach, no more computation is necessary than when using isoneutral diffusion alone. Additionally, the numerical realization of the skew flux is significantly smoother than the advective flux. The reason is that to compute the skew flux, no gradient of the diffusivity or isoneutral slope is taken, whereas such a gradient is needed for computing the advective flux. The skew-flux formulation also exposes a striking cancellation of terms that results when the GM diffusion coefficient is identical to the Redi isoneutral diffusion coefficient. For this case, the horizontal components to the tracer flux are aligned down the horizontal tracer gradient, and the resulting computational cost of Redi diffusion plus GM skew diffusion is roughly half that needed for Redi diffusion alone.

63. Griffies, Stephen M., Anand Gnanadesikan, Ronald C Pacanowski, V D Larichev, J K Dukowicz, and R D Smith, 1998: Isoneutral diffusion in a z-coordinate ocean model. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 28(5), 805-830.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    This paper considers the requirements that must be satisfied in order to provide a stable and physically based isoneutral tracer diffusion scheme in a z-coordinate ocean model. Two properties are emphasized: 1) downgradient orientation of the diffusive fluxes along the neutral directions and 2) zero isoneutral diffusive flux of locally referenced potential density. It is shown that the Cox diffusion scheme does not respect either of these properties, which provides an explanation for the necessity to add a nontrivial background horizontal diffusion to that scheme. A new isoneutral diffusion scheme is proposed that aims to satisfy the stated properties and is found to require no horizontal background diffusion.

64. Bryan, Kirk, and Stephen M Griffies, 1997: Predictability of North Atlantic climate on decadal times scales estimated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. International WOCE Newsletter, 26, 5-9.
65. Griffies, Stephen M., and Kirk Bryan, 1997: Predictability of North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability. Science, 275(5297), 181-184.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    Atmospheric weather systems become unpredictable beyond a few weeks, but climate variations can be predictable over much longer periods because of the coupling of the ocean and atmosphere. With the use of a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the North Atlantic may have climatic predictability on the order of a decade or longer. These results suggest that variations of the dominant multidecadal sea surface temperature patterns in the North Atlantic, which have been associated with changes in climate over Eurasia, can be predicted if an adequate and sustainable system for monitoring the Atlantic Ocean exists.

66. Griffies, Stephen M., and Kirk Bryan, 1997: A predictability study of simulated North Atlantic multidecadal variability. Climate Dynamics, 13(7-8), 459-487.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    The North Atlantic is one of the few places on the globe where the atmosphere is linked to the deep ocean through air-sea interaction. While the internal variability of the atmosphere by itself is only predictable over a period of one to two weeks, climate variations are potentially predictable for much longer periods of months or even years because of coupling with the ocean. This work presents details from the first study to quantify the predictability for simulated multidecadal climate variability over the North Atlantic. The model used for this purpose is the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model used extensively for studies of global warming and natural climate variability. This model contains fluctuations of the North Atlantic and high-latitude oceanic circulation with variability concentrated in the 40-60 year range. Oceanic predictability is quantified through analysis of the time-dependent behavior of large-scale empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns for the meridional stream function, dynamic topography, 170 m temperature, surface temperature and surface salinity. The results indicate that predictability in the North Atlantic depends on three main physical mechanisms. The first involves the oceanic deep convection in the subpolar region which acts to integrate atmospheric fluctuations, thus providing for a red noise oceanic response as elaborated by Hasselmann. The second involves the large-scale dynamics of the thermohaline circulation, which can cause the oceanic variations to have an oscillatory character on the multidecadal time scale. The third involves non-local effects on the North Atlantic arising from periodic anomalous fresh water transport advecting southward from the polar regions in the East Greenland Current. When the multidecadal oscillatory variations of the thermohaline circulation are active, the first and second EOF patterns for the North Atlantic dynamic topography have predictability time scales on the order of 10-20 y, whereas EOF-1 of SST has predictability time scales of 5-7 y. When the thermohaline variability has weak multidecadal power, the Hasselmann mechanism is dominant and the predictability is reduced by at least a factor of two. When the third mechanism is in an extreme phase, the North Atlantic dynamic topography patterns realize a 10-20 year predictability time scale. Additional analysis of SST in the Greenland Sea, in a region associated with the southward propagating fresh water anomalies, indicates the potential for decadal scale predictability for this high latitude region as well. The model calculations also allow insight into regional variations of predictability, which might be useful information for the design of a monitoring system for the North Atlantic. Predictability appears to break down most rapidly in regions of active convection in the high-latitude regions of the North Atlantic.

67. Toggweiler, J R., E Tziperman, Y Feliks, Kirk Bryan, Stephen M Griffies, and Bonita L Samuels, 1996: Reply. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 26(6), 1106-1110.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    The comment by Rahmstorf suggests that a numerical problem in Tziperman et al. (1994, TTFB) leads to a noisy E - P field that invalidates TTFB's conclusions. The authors eliminate the noise, caused by the Fourier filtering used in the model, and show that TTFB's conclusions are still valid. Rahmstorf questions whether a critical value in the freshwater forcing separates TTFB's stable and unstable runs. By TTFB's original definition, the unstable runs in both TTFB and in Rahmstorf's comment have most definitely crossed a stability transition point upon switching to mixed boundary conditions. Rahmstorf finally suggests that the instability mechanism active in TTFB is a fast convective mechanism, not the slow advective mechanism proposed in TTFB. The authors show that the timescale of the instability is, in fact, consistent with the advective mechanism

68. Griffies, Stephen M., and E Tziperman, 1995: A linear thermohaline oscillator driven by stochastic atmospheric forcing. Journal of Climate, 8(10), 2440-2453.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    The interdecadal variability of a stochastically forced four-box model of the oceanic meridional thermohaline circulation (TMC) is described and compared to the THC variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM of Delworth, Manabe, and Stouffer. The box model is placed in linearly stable thermally dominant mean state under mixed boundary conditions. A linear stability analysis of this state reveals one damped oscillatory THC mode in additon to purely damped modes. The variability of the model under a moderate amount of stochastic forcing, meant to emulate the random variability of the atmosphere affecting the coupled model's interdecadal THC variability, is studied. A linear interpretation, in which the damped oscillatory mode is of primary importance, is sufficient for understanding the mechanism accounting for the stochastically forced variability. Direct comparison of the variability in the box model and coupled GCM reveals common qualitative aspects. Such a comparison supports, although does not verify, the hypothesis that the coupled model's THC variability can be interpreted as the result of atmospheric weather exciting a linear damped oscillatory THC mode.

69. Griffies, Stephen M., and Kirk Bryan, 1994: Predictability of North Atlantic climate variability on multidecadal time scales In The Atlantic Climate Change Program, Proceedings from the principal investigators meeting, NOAA, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 77-80.
    [ Abstract ]

    A major goal of the ACCP program is to gain the understanding of North Atlantic climate variability required for making predictions. An essential first step in this direction is to assess the predictability of Atlantic climate variability from models. A methodology for doing this was first proposed by Lorenz (1965) for atmospheric models. Recently, predictability studies have been extended to coupled atmosphere-ocean models in connection with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon (e.g., Cane and Zebiak, 1987; Goswami and Shukla, 1991). At present, no operational monitoring system exists to provide proper initial conditions for the ocean on a global basis or even for the North Atlantic. The goal of this study is to use the GFDL climate model to determine the value, in terms of practical prediction of multi-decadal climate variability, of an operational, deep-sea observing system. We present here preliminary results toward this goal.

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