Climate Change, Variability and Prediction
We develop and use coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models to increase our understanding of climate variability and change on seasonal to centennial time scales, to assess the predictability of the climate system, and to make experimental climate predictions.
Research Projects
Global Warming & Hurricanes
As the earth's climate continues to warm, there is concern that the characteristics hurricanes, a phenomenon typically found over warm tropical oceans, may change. Our group seeks a better physical understanding of this issue through high resolution computer modeling studies.
Decadal Climate Variability, Predictability, and AMOC
Over the next decade or two the signal of climate change will be a combination of global warming and decadal variations in the climate system, including fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here we study the mechanisms and impacts of decadal climate fluctuations, and attempt to predict the decadal scale evolution of climate.
Ocean Observation & Reanalysis
We develop and use novel coupled data assimilation systems to produce state of the art ocean reanalyses. In addition to providing an important data set for the study of ocean changes, these reanalyses also provide initial conditions for seasonal to decadal climate predictions. These data sets are publicly available here.
Experimental Prediction & El Niño Research
El Nino is the dominant mode of climate variability on seasonal to interannual time scales. Here we pursue research to better understand and predict El Niño, including its response to global warming.
High Resolution Coupled Climate Modeling
We develop and use new climate models with very high spatial resolution in both the atmospheric and oceanic components. These models provide important new insights on the climate system, and form the prototypes for future generations of climate models.
Featured Results
Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes
Our recent Science paper asks how the frequency of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes will change in in the current century due to human-caused climate change. It suggests that we should expect an increase in the frequency of the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic, roughly by a factor of two by the end of the century, despite a decrease in overall number of hurricanes, but that we should not expect this trend to be clearly detectable until we near the end of the century.
For more information:
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/21st-century-projections-of-intense-hurricanes
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes
and
Podcast from Science interview.
