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Publications - Gabriel Vecchi


  • Murakami, H., G. Villarini, G. A. Vecchi, and W. Zhang (2015): Statistical-dynamical seasonal forecast of North Atlantic and U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones using the high-resolution GFDL FLOR coupled model. Mon. Wea. Rev. (submitted)
  • Baldwin, J.W., and G.A. Vecchi (2015): Influence of the Tianshan Mountains on Arid Extratropical Asia. J. Climate (submitted)
  • Jia, L.; G.A. Vecchi; X. Yang; R. Gudgel; T. Delworth; W. Stern; K. Paffendorf; S. Underwood; F. Zeng (2015): The Roles of Radiative Forcing, Sea Surface Temperatures, and Atmospheric and Land Initial Conditions in U.S. Summer Warming Episodes. J. Climate (submitted).
  • Zhang, W.; G.A. Vecchi; H. Murakami; T. Delworth; A.T. Wittenberg; W. Anderson; A. Rosati; S. Underwood; L. Harris; R. Gudgel; S.-J. Lin; G. Villarini; J-H Chen (2015): Improved Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Responses to ENSO in the Western North Pacific in the High-Resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model. J. Climate (submitted).
  • Krishnamurthy, L., G.A. Vecchi, R. Msadek, H. Murakami, A.T. Wittenberg, and F. Zeng (2015): Impact of strong ENSO on regional tropical cyclone activity  in a high-resolution climate model. J. Climate (submitted).
  • Zhang, W., G.A. Vecchi, H. Murakami, G. Villarini, and L. Jia (2015): The Pacific Meridional Mode and the Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific. J. Climate (submitted).
    Research Summary (PDF)

In press







  • Seager, R. and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Greenhouse warming and the 21st Century hydroclimate of southwestern North America. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sciences, 107(50). 21277-21282 ,
  • Zhao, M., I.M. Held and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Retrospective forecasts of the hurricane season using a global atmospheric model assuming persistence of SST anomalies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3858-3868.
  • Gnanadesikan, A., K. Emanuel, G.A. Vecchi, W.G. Anderson, R. Hallberg (2010): How ocean color can steer Pacific tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L18802 doi:10.1029/2010GL044514
  • Seager, R., N. Naik and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Climate, 23(17), 4670-4687 doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1
  • Villarini, G., G.A. Vecchi and J.A. Smith (2010): Modeling of the Dependence of Tropical Storm Counts in the North Atlantic Basin on Climate Indices. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138(7), 2681-2705, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3315.1
  • Collins, M., et al. (2010): The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific and El Niño. Nature Geosci., doi:10.1038/ngeo868
  • Vecchi, G.A. and A.T. Wittenberg (2010): El Niño and our future climate: where do we stand? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, pp.1757-778DOI: 10.1002/wcc.33 
  • DiNezio, P, A. Clement, and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Reconciling Differing Views of Tropical Pacific Climate Change. EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union,91(16), 141-152.
  • Lloyd, I.D., and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Submonthly Indian Ocean cooling events and their interaction with large-scale conditions. J .Climate.23, 700-716, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3067.1
  • Xie, S.P., C. Deser, G.A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng and A.T. Wittenberg (2010): Global Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall. J. Climate., 23, 966-986. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1
  • Zheng, X-T, S-P Xie, G.A. Vecchi, Q. Liu, and J. Hafner (2010). Indian Ocean dipole response to global warming: Analysis of ocean-atmospheric feedbacks in a coupled model. J. Climate. 23(5), 1240-1253. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3326.1
  • Chang Y.-S., A. J. Rosati, and G. A. Vecchi (2010): Basin patterns of global sea level changes for 2004-2007, J. Mar. Syst, 80, 115-124, doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.11.003
  • Landsea, C.W., G.A. Vecchi, L. Bengtsson, and T.R. Knutson (2009): Impact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts. J. Climate doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3034.1
    Website with data access
  • Bender, M.A., T.R. Knutson, R.E. Tuleya, J.J. Sirutis,G.A. Vecchi, S.T. Garner & I.M. Held (2010): Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes. Science. 327, doi: 10.1126/science.1180568.


  • Harrison, D.E., A.M. Chiodi and G.A. Vecchi (2009): Effects of surface forcing on the seasonal cycle of the eastern equatorial Pacific. J. Marine Research, 67(6), 701-729.
  • Zhao, M., I.M. Held, S.-J. Lin, and G.A. Vecchi (2009). Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50km resolution GCM. J. Climate, 22(24), 6653-6678, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3049.1
  • DiNezio, P.N., A.C. Clement, G.A. Vecchi, B.J. Soden, B.P. Kirtman, S.-K. Lee (2009): Climate Response of the Equatorial Pacific to Global Warming. J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2982.1
  • Lengaigne, M. and G.A. Vecchi (2009). Contrasting the termination of moderate and extreme El Niño events in Coupled General Circulation Models. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0562-3
  • McPhaden, M.J., G.R. Foltz, T. Lee, V.S.N. Murty, M. Ravichandran, G.A. Vecchi, J. Vialard, J.D. Wiggert, L. Yu (2009). Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions During Cyclone Nargis. EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 90(7), 53-60.


  • Vecchi, G.A., K.L. Swanson, and B.J. Soden (2008). Whither Hurricane Activity? Science 322 (5902), 687. DOI: 10.1126/science.1164396
  • Vecchi, G.A., and T.R. Knutson (2008). On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Topical Cyclone Activity. J. Climate, 21(14),3580-3600.
    Storm Count Correction     Website with data access 
  • Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis, S.T. Garner, G.A. Vecchi and I.M. Held (2008): Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions, Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo202
    Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
  • Vecchi, G.A., A. Clement and B.J. Soden (2008). Examining the Tropical Pacific's Response to Global Warming. EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, v.89(9), pp.81,83.
  • Song, Q., G.A. Vecchi and A. Rosati (2008). Predictability of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the GFDL Coupled Model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 5, L02701, doi:10.1029/2007GL031966.


  • Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden (2007): Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity, Nature, 450, 1066-1070 doi:10.1038/nature06423.
  • Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden (2007). Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation. J. Climate, v20(17), 4316-4340.
  • Vecchi, G.A., and M. Harrison (2007). An Indian Ocean Observing System Simulation Experiment. J. Climate, v20(13), 3300-3319.
  • Song, Q., G.A. Vecchi, and A. Rosati (2007). Indian Ocean Variability in the GFDL CM2 Coupled Climate Model. J. Climate, v20(13), 2895-2916
  • Song, Q., G.A. Vecchi, and A. Rosati (2007). The Role of the Indonesian Throughflow in the Indo-Pacific Climate Variability in the GFDL Coupled Climate Model, J. Climate, v20(11), 2434-2451.
  • Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden (2007). Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905.
  • Seager, R., et al. (2007). Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, v316(5828), 1181-1184 doi: 10.1126/science.1139601.
  • Lu, J., G.A. Vecchi, and T. Reichler (2007). Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., V.34, L06805, doi:10.1029/2006GL028443.


  • Vecchi, G.A., B.J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M.J. Harrison (2006). Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature. v.441, doi:10.1038/nature04744.
  • Vecchi, G.A. (2006). The termination of the 1997-98 El Niño. Part II: Mechanisms of Atmospheric Change. J. Climate. v.19, pp.2647-2664.
  • Vecchi, G.A., and D.E. Harrison (2006). The termination of the 1997-98 El Niño. Part I: Mechanisms of Oceanic Change. J. Climate. v.19, pp. 2633-2646.
  • Gnanadesikan, A. et al., (2006): GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models - Part 2: The baseline ocean simulation, J. Climate., v.19, pp.675-697. 
  • CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel and Collaborators (2006). Understanding the Role of the Indian Ocean in the Climate System Implementation Plan for Sustained Observations. Southampton, UK, International CLIVAR Project Office, 76pp. (ICPO Publication Series, 100)
  • Vecchi, G.A., A.T. Wittenberg and A. Rosati (2006). Reasessing the role of stochastic forcing in the 1997-8 El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett 33, L01706, doi:10.1029/2005GL024738.


  • Vecchi, G.A., A. Rosati, D.E. Harrison (2004): Setting the timing of El Niño termination. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 85(8), 1065-1066.
  • Bhat, G. S., G. A. Vecchi and S. Gadgil (2004). Sea Surface Temperature of the Bay of Bengal derived from TRMM. J. Mar. Tech.. 21, 1283-1290.
  • Vecchi, G.A., and D.E. Harrison (2004): Interannual Indian rainfall variability and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies. In Earth Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, C. Wang, S.-P. Xie, and J.A. Carton (eds.), American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Monograph 147, Washington D.C., 247 260
  • Vecchi, G.A., and N.A. Bond (2004): The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and northern high latitude wintertime surface air temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L04104, doi:10.1029/2003GL018645.
  • Vecchi, G.A., S.-P. Xie, and A. Fischer (2004). Air-Sea Coupling over Western Arabian Sea Cold Filaments. J. Climate, 17(6), 1213 1224.


  • Vecchi, G.A. and D.E. Harrison (2003). On the termination of the 2002-3 El Niño event. Geophys Res. Lett., 30(18), 1964-1967.
  • Bond, N.A., and G.A. Vecchi (2003). On the Madden Julian Oscillation and Precipitation in Oregon and Washington. Weather and Forecasting, 18(4), 600-613.


  • Vecchi, G.A., and D.E. Harrison (2002). Monsoon Breaks and sub-seasonal sea surface temperature variability in the Bay of Bengal. J. Climate, 15(12), 1485-1493.


  • Harrison, D.E., R.D. Romea, and G.A. Vecchi (2001). Central Equatorial Pacific Zonal Currents II: The seasonal momentum balances and the boreal spring eastward surface current surge. J. Mar. Res., 59, 921-948.
  • Harrison, D.E., and G.A. Vecchi (2001). January 1999 Indian Ocean cooling event. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28(19), 3717-3720.
  • Harrison, D.E. and G.A. Vecchi (2001). El Niño and La Niña: Equatorial Pacific surface temperature and thermocline variability, 1986-98. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1051-1054.


  • Harrison, D.E., G.A. Vecchi and R.H. Weisberg (2000). Eastward surface jets in the central equatorial Pacific. November 1991-March 1992. J. Marine Res.. 58, 735-754.
  • Vecchi, G.A. (2000). Tropical Pacific sub-seasonal wind variability and El Niño. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Washington.
  • Vecchi, G.A. and D.E. Harrison (2000). Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, El Niño and equatorial westerly wind events. J. Climate, 13(11), 1814-1830.


  • Harrison, D.E. and G.A. Vecchi (1999). On the termination of El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett. V.26 (11), 1593-7.


  • Vecchi, G.A. and D.E. Harrison (1997). Westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific, 1986-1995: An atlas from the ECMWF operational surface wind fields. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL PMEL-109 (NTIS PB97-188213).
  • Harrison, D.E., and G.A. Vecchi (1997). Westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific, 1986-1995. J. Climate, 10(12), 3131-3156.