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Publications - Gabriel Vecchi


  • Msadek, R., G.A. Vecchi, M. Winton, R.G. Gudgel (2014): Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett. (submitted)
  • Jia, L. and coauthors (2014): Improved Seasonal Prediction Skill of Land Temperature and Precipitation in a GFDL High-Resolution Climate Model, J. Climate (submitted).
    Research Summary (PDF)
  • Camargo, S.J., M.K. Tippett, A.H. Sobel, G.A. Vecchi and M. Zhao (2014): Testing the performance of tropical cyclone genesis indices in future climates using the HIRAM model. J. Climate (submitted)
  • Msadek, R., T. Delworth; A. Rosati; W. Anderson; G.A. Vecchi; Y.-S. Chang; K. Dixon; R. Gudgel; B. Stern; A. Wittenberg; X. Yang; F. Zeng; R. Zhang; S. Zhang (2014): Predicting a decadal shift in North Atlantic climate variability using the GFDL forecast system. J. Climate (submitted).
  • Kim, H.-S., G.A. Vecchi, T.R. Knutson, W.G. Anderson, T.L. Delworth, A. Rosati, F. Zeng, M. Zhao (2014): Tropical Cyclone Simulation and Response to CO2 Doubling in the GFDL CM2.5 High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model. J. Climate (submitted).
  • Chang, Y-S, S. Zhang, A. Rosati, G.A.Vecchi and X. Yang (2014): An OSSE study using the GFDL ensemble coupled data assimilation system: Biased twin experiment for deep Argo array. Geophys. Res. Lett. (submitted)

In press

  • Vecchi, G.A., T. Delworth, R. Gudgel, S. Kapnick, A. Rosati, A.T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng, W. Anderson, V. Balaji, K. Dixon, L. Jia, H.-S. Kim, L. Krishnamurthy, R. Msadek, W.F. Stern, S.D. Underwood, G. Villarini, X. Yang, S. Zhang  (2014): On the Seasonal Forecasting to Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity. J. Climate (submitted).
    Research Summary (PDF)
  • Scocimarro, E., S. Gualdi, G. Villarini, G.A. Vecchi, M. Zhao, K. Walsh, A. Navarra (2014): Intense precipitation events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones in a warmer climate. J. Climate (in press).
  • Wang, H. and coauthors (2014): How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO? J. Climate (in press).
  • Villarini, G., D.A. Lavers, E. Scocimarro, M. Zhao, M.F. Wehner, G.A. Vecchi, T.R. Knutson, and K.E. Reed (2014): Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall to Idealized Global Scale Forcings. J. Climate (in press).
  • Msadek R., G. A. Vecchi, and T. R. Knutson (2014): North Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Past, Present and Future. Chapter for the NTU Climate Change Conference Proceedings Book, (in press).
  • Lu, J., and G.A. Vecchi; revised from I.N. James (2013): The Hadley Circulation. In Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Science 2nd Edition, J. North editor. (in press)
  • Villarini, G., R. Goska, J.A. Smith and G.A. Vecchi (2014): North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and U.S. Flooding. Bull Amer. Meteorol. Soc. (in press).
  • Chang, Y-S, G.A. Vecchi, A. Rosati, S. Zhang, and X. Yang (2014): Comparison of global objective analyzed T-S fields for 2008-2011. J. Marine Systems (in press).






  • Seager, R. and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Greenhouse warming and the 21st Century hydroclimate of southwestern North America. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sciences, 107(50). 21277-21282 ,
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  • Zhao, M., I.M. Held and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Retrospective forecasts of the hurricane season using a global atmospheric model assuming persistence of SST anomalies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3858-3868.
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  • Gnanadesikan, A., K. Emanuel, G.A. Vecchi, W.G. Anderson, R. Hallberg (2010): How ocean color can steer Pacific tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L18802 doi:10.1029/2010GL044514
    Abstract and Full text
  • Seager, R., N. Naik and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Climate, 23(17), 4670-4687 doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1
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  • Villarini, G., G.A. Vecchi and J.A. Smith (2010): Modeling of the Dependence of Tropical Storm Counts in the North Atlantic Basin on Climate Indices. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138(7), 2681-2705, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3315.1
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  • Collins, M., et al. (2010): The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific and El Niño. Nature Geosci., doi:10.1038/ngeo868
    Abstract and Full text
  • Vecchi, G.A. and A.T. Wittenberg (2010): El Niño and our future climate: where do we stand? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, pp.1757-778DOI: 10.1002/wcc.33 
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  • DiNezio, P, A. Clement, and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Reconciling Differing Views of Tropical Pacific Climate Change. EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union,91(16), 141-152.
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  • Lloyd, I.D., and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Submonthly Indian Ocean cooling events and their interaction with large-scale conditions. J .Climate.23, 700-716, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3067.1
    Full Text.
  • Xie, S.P., C. Deser, G.A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng and A.T. Wittenberg (2010): Global Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall. J. Climate., 23, 966-986. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1
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  • Zheng, X-T, S-P Xie, G.A. Vecchi, Q. Liu, and J. Hafner (2010). Indian Ocean dipole response to global warming: Analysis of ocean-atmospheric feedbacks in a coupled model. J. Climate. 23(5), 1240-1253. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3326.1
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  • Chang Y.-S., A. J. Rosati, and G. A. Vecchi (2010): Basin patterns of global sea level changes for 2004-2007, J. Mar. Syst, 80, 115-124, doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.11.003
    Abstract and Full text
  • Landsea, C.W., G.A. Vecchi, L. Bengtsson, and T.R. Knutson (2009): Impact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts. J. Climate doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3034.1
    Full Text        Website with data access
  • Bender, M.A., T.R. Knutson, R.E. Tuleya, J.J. Sirutis,G.A. Vecchi, S.T. Garner & I.M. Held (2010): Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes. Science. 327, doi: 10.1126/science.1180568.
    Full Text and Abstract    FAQ


  • Harrison, D.E., A.M. Chiodi and G.A. Vecchi (2009): Effects of surface forcing on the seasonal cycle of the eastern equatorial Pacific. J. Marine Research, 67(6), 701-729.
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  • Zhao, M., I.M. Held, S.-J. Lin, and G.A. Vecchi (2009). Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50km resolution GCM. J. Climate, 22(24), 6653-6678, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3049.1
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  • DiNezio, P.N., A.C. Clement, G.A. Vecchi, B.J. Soden, B.P. Kirtman, S.-K. Lee (2009): Climate Response of the Equatorial Pacific to Global Warming. J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2982.1
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  • Lengaigne, M. and G.A. Vecchi (2009). Contrasting the termination of moderate and extreme El Niño events in Coupled General Circulation Models. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0562-3
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  • McPhaden, M.J., G.R. Foltz, T. Lee, V.S.N. Murty, M. Ravichandran, G.A. Vecchi, J. Vialard, J.D. Wiggert, L. Yu (2009). Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions During Cyclone Nargis. EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 90(7), 53-60.
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  • Vecchi, G.A., K.L. Swanson, and B.J. Soden (2008). Whither Hurricane Activity? Science 322 (5902), 687. DOI: 10.1126/science.1164396
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    Full Text with Supporting Online Material
  • Vecchi, G.A., and T.R. Knutson (2008). On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Topical Cyclone Activity. J. Climate, 21(14),3580-3600.
    Full text        Storm Count Correction     Website with data access 
  • Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis, S.T. Garner, G.A. Vecchi and I.M. Held (2008): Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions, Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo202
    Full Text and Supplementary Material       Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
  • Vecchi, G.A., A. Clement and B.J. Soden (2008). Examining the Tropical Pacific's Response to Global Warming. EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, v.89(9), pp.81,83.
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  • Song, Q., G.A. Vecchi and A. Rosati (2008). Predictability of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the GFDL Coupled Model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 5, L02701, doi:10.1029/2007GL031966.
    Abstract and Full text



  • Vecchi, G.A., B.J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M.J. Harrison (2006). Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature. v.441, doi:10.1038/nature04744.
    Abstract and Full Text
  • Vecchi, G.A. (2006). The termination of the 1997-98 El Niño. Part II: Mechanisms of Atmospheric Change. J. Climate. v.19, pp.2647-2664.
    Abstract Full Text
  • Vecchi, G.A., and D.E. Harrison (2006). The termination of the 1997-98 El Niño. Part I: Mechanisms of Oceanic Change. J. Climate. v.19, pp. 2633-2646.
    Abstract and access to full text
  • Gnanadesikan, A. et al., (2006): GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models - Part 2: The baseline ocean simulation, J. Climate., v.19, pp.675-697.
    Abstract and Full Text
  • CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel and Collaborators (2006). Understanding the Role of the Indian Ocean in the Climate System Implementation Plan for Sustained Observations. Southampton, UK, International CLIVAR Project Office, 76pp. (ICPO Publication Series, 100)
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  • Vecchi, G.A., A.T. Wittenberg and A. Rosati (2006). Reasessing the role of stochastic forcing in the 1997-8 El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett 33, L01706, doi:10.1029/2005GL024738.
    Abstract and Full text


  • Vecchi, G.A., A. Rosati, D.E. Harrison (2004): Setting the timing of El Niño termination. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 85(8), 1065-1066.
  • Bhat, G. S., G. A. Vecchi and S. Gadgil (2004). Sea Surface Temperature of the Bay of Bengal derived from TRMM. J. Mar. Tech.. 21, 1283-1290.
    Abstract Full text
  • Vecchi, G.A., and D.E. Harrison (2004): Interannual Indian rainfall variability and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies. In Earth Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, C. Wang, S.-P. Xie, and J.A. Carton (eds.), American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Monograph 147, Washington D.C., 247 260
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  • Vecchi, G.A., and N.A. Bond (2004): The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and northern high latitude wintertime surface air temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L04104, doi:10.1029/2003GL018645.
    Abstract and Full text
  • Vecchi, G.A., S.-P. Xie, and A. Fischer (2004). Air-Sea Coupling over Western Arabian Sea Cold Filaments. J. Climate, 17(6), 1213 1224.
    Abstract Full text


  • Vecchi, G.A. and D.E. Harrison (2003). On the termination of the 2002-3 El Niño event. Geophys Res. Lett., 30(18), 1964-1967.
    Abstract and Full text
  • Bond, N.A., and G.A. Vecchi (2003). On the Madden Julian Oscillation and Precipitation in Oregon and Washington. Weather and Forecasting, 18(4), 600-613.
    Abstract Full text


  • Vecchi, G.A., and D.E. Harrison (2002). Monsoon Breaks and sub-seasonal sea surface temperature variability in the Bay of Bengal. J. Climate, 15(12), 1485-1493.
    Abstract Full text


  • Harrison, D.E., R.D. Romea, and G.A. Vecchi (2001). Central Equatorial Pacific Zonal Currents II: The seasonal momentum balances and the boreal spring eastward surface current surge. J. Mar. Res., 59, 921-948.
    Abstract Full text
  • Harrison, D.E., and G.A. Vecchi (2001). January 1999 Indian Ocean cooling event. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28(19), 3717-3720.
    Abstract and Full text
  • Harrison, D.E. and G.A. Vecchi (2001). El Niño and La Niña: Equatorial Pacific surface temperature and thermocline variability, 1986-98. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1051-1054.
    Abstract and Full text


  • Harrison, D.E., G.A. Vecchi and R.H. Weisberg (2000). Eastward surface jets in the central equatorial Pacific. November 1991-March 1992. J. Marine Res.. 58, 735-754.
    Abstract Full text
  • Vecchi, G.A. (2000). Tropical Pacific sub-seasonal wind variability and El Niño. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Washington.
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  • Vecchi, G.A. and D.E. Harrison (2000). Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, El Niño and equatorial westerly wind events. J. Climate, 13(11), 1814-1830.
    Abstract Full text


  • Harrison, D.E. and G.A. Vecchi (1999). On the termination of El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett. V.26 (11), 1593-7.
    Abstract and Full text


  • Vecchi, G.A. and D.E. Harrison (1997). Westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific, 1986-1995: An atlas from the ECMWF operational surface wind fields. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL PMEL-109 (NTIS PB97-188213).
  • Harrison, D.E., and G.A. Vecchi (1997). Westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific, 1986-1995. J. Climate, 10(12), 3131-3156.
    Abstract Article