Publications - Gabriel Vecchi

Submitted

• Rosati, A., and co-authors (2013): The development and use of a decadal prediction system at GFDL. J. Climate (submitted).
• Choi, K.-Y., and G.A. Vecchi (2013): A mechanism for ENSO asymmetry. J. Climate (submitted).

In press

• Vecchi, G.A., R. Msadek, W. Anderson, Y.-S. Chang, T. Delworth, K. Dixon, R. Gudgel, A. Rosati, W. Stern, G. Villarini, A. Wittenberg, X. Yang, F. Zeng, R. Zhang and S. Zhang (2013): Multi-year Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and Limitations. J. Climate (in press).
  
• Vecchi, G.A., S. Fueglistaler, I.M. Held, T.R. Knutson, M. Zhao (2013): Impacts of Atmospheric Temperature Changes on Tropical Cyclone Activity. J. Climate (in press).
• Doi, T., G.A. Vecchi, A.J. Rosati and T.L. Delworth (2013): Response to CO2 doubling of the Atlantic Main Development Region in a High-Resolution Climate Model. J. Climate (in press)
• Colbert, A.J., B.J. Soden, G.A. Vecchi and B.P. Kirtman (2012): The impact of anthropogenic climate change on North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. J. Climate (in press).
• Knutson, T.R., and coauthors (2013): Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Late 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios. J. Climate (submitted).
• Meehl, G., and co-authors (2013): Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. (submitted).
• Kosaka, Y., S.-P. Xie, N.-C. Lau and G.A. Vecchi (2013): An air-sea coupled mode over the Indo-Northwestern Pacific warm pool in boreal summer. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sciences. (in press).
• Zhang, R. and co-authors (2013): Have aerosols caused the observe Atlantic multidecadal variability? J. Atmos. Sci. (in press).
• Villarini, G., and G.A Vecchi (2013): Projected Increases in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity from CMIP5 Models. J. Climate (in press),doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00441.
• Villarini, G., and G.A. Vecchi (2013): Multi-Season Lead Forecast of the North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). J. Climate (in press), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00448.
• DiNezio, P.N., G.A. Vecchi, and A.C. Clement (2013): Detectability of Changes in the Walker Circulation in Response to Global Warming. J. Climate (in press)

2013

• Villarini, G., J.A. Smith and G.A. Vecchi (2013): Changing Frequency of Heavy Rainfall Over the Central United States. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00043. 
• Yang., X. and co-authors (2013): A predictable AMO-like pattern in GFDL’s fully-coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.

2012

• Vecchi, G.A., R. Msadek, T.L. Delworth, K.W. Dixon, E. Guilyardi, E. Hawkins, A.R. Karspeck, J. Mignot, J. Robson, A. Rosati, R. Zhang (2012): Comment on "Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5N", Science, doi:10.1126/science.1222566
• Doi, T., G.A. Vecchi, A.J. Rosati and T.L. Delworth (2012): Tropical Atlantic biases in the mean state, seasonal cycle, and interannual variations for a coarse and high resolution coupled climate model. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00360.1
• DiNezio, P.N., B.P. Kirtman, A.C. Clement, S.-K. Lee, G.A. Vecchi and A.T. Wittenberg (2012): Mean Climate Controls on the Simulated Response of ENSO to Increasing Greenhouse Gases. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00494.
• Villarini, G., and G.A. Vecchi (2012): 21st Century Projections of North Atlantic Tropical Storms from CMIP5 Models. Nature Climate Change doi:10:1038/NCLIMATE1530
• Delworth, T. and coauthors (2012): Simulated climate and climate change in the GFDL CM2.5 high-resolution coupled climate model. J. Climate doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00316.1  
• Knutson, T.R., I.M. Held and G.A. Vecchi (2012): Hurricanes and Typhoons: Will tropical cyclones become stronger and more frequent? PAGES News 20(1).
• Villarini, G. and G.A. Vecchi (2012): Statistical Modeling of the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00146.1 
• Villarini, G., G.A. Vecchi and J.A. Smith (2012): U.S. Landfalling and North Atlantic Hurricanes: Statistical Modeling of Their Frequencies and Ratios. Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00063.1 

2011

• Villarini, G, J.A. Smith, M.L. Baeck, T. Marchok, and G.A. Vecchi (2011): Characterization of Rainfall Distribution and Flooding Associated with U.S. Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: Analyses of Hurricanes Frances, Ivan and Jeanne (2004). J. Geophys. Res. doi:10.1029/2011JD016175
  
• Lloyd, I.D., T. Marchok, and G.A. Vecchi (2011): Diagnostics for comparing operational hurricane forecasts to observations. J. Atmos. Model. Earth Sys.
  
• Fang, Y., A. Fiore, L. Horrowitz, A. Gnanadesikan, I.M. Held, G. Chen, G.A. Vecchi, H. Levy (2011): The impacts of changing transport and precipitation on pollutant distributions in a future climate. J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2011JD015642.
  
• DiNezio, P.N., A.C. Clement, G.A. Vecchi, B.J. Soden, A.J. Broccoli, B. Otto-Bliesner, P. Branconnot (2011): The Response of the Walker Circulation to LGM Forcing: Implications for Detection in Proxies. Paleoceanography , 26, PA3217, doi:10.1029/2010PA002083.
  
• Villarini, G., G.A. Vecchi, T.R. Knutson, M. Zhao and J.A. Smith (2011): Reconciling Differing Model Projections of Changes in the Frequency of Tropical Storms in the North Atlantic Basin in a Warmer Climate, J. Climate, 24(13), 3224-3238, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3853.1
  
• Soden, B.J., and G.A. Vecchi (2011): The Vertical Distribution of Cloud Feedback in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2011GL047632
  
• Villarini, G., G.A. Vecchi, T.R. Knutson and J.A. Smith (2011): Is the Recorded Increase in Short Duration North Atlantic Tropical Storms Spurious? J. Geophys. Res. doi:10.1029/2010JD015493
  
• Kirtman, B. and G.A. Vecchi (2011): Why Climate Modelers Should Worry About Atmospheric and Oceanic Weather. In The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast, 2nd Edition. Chang, C.-P., Y. Ding, N.-C. Lau, R. H. Johnson, B. Wang, and T. Yasunari, Eds., World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate, Vol. 5, World Scientific Publication Company, 608 pp, pages 511-524.
  
• Vecchi, G.A., M. Zhao, H. Wang, G. Villarini, A. Rosati, A. Kumar, I.M. Held, R. Gudgel (2011): Statistical-Dynamical Predictions of Seasonal North Atlantic Hurricane Activity. Mon. Wea. Rev.,139(4), 1070-1082, doi: 10.1175/2010MWR3499.1
  
• Vecchi, G.A., and T.R. Knutson (2011):Estimating annual numbers of Atlantic hurricanes missing from the HURDAT database (1878-1965) using ship track density. J. Climate, 24(6), 1736-1746, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3810.1
  
• Lloyd, I.D., and G.A. Vecchi (2011): Observational Evidence for Oceanic Controls on Hurricane Intensity. J. Climate, 24, 1138–1153. doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3763.1
  
• Stock, C.A and co-authors (2011): On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources. Progress in Oceanography, 88(1-4), 1-27. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2010.09.001
  

2010

• Seager, R. and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Greenhouse warming and the 21st Century hydroclimate of southwestern North America. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sciences, 107(50). 21277-21282 , doi: 10.1073/pnas.0910856107
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• Zhao, M., I.M. Held and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Retrospective forecasts of the hurricane season using a global atmospheric model assuming persistence of SST anomalies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3858-3868.
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• Gnanadesikan, A., K. Emanuel, G.A. Vecchi, W.G. Anderson, R. Hallberg (2010): How ocean color can steer Pacific tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L18802 doi:10.1029/2010GL044514
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• Seager, R., N. Naik and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Climate, 23(17), 4670-4687 doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1
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• Villarini, G., G.A. Vecchi and J.A. Smith (2010): Modeling of the Dependence of Tropical Storm Counts in the North Atlantic Basin on Climate Indices. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138(7), 2681-2705, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3315.1
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• Collins, M., et al. (2010): The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific and El Niño. Nature Geosci., doi:10.1038/ngeo868
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• Vecchi, G.A. and A.T. Wittenberg (2010): El Niño and our future climate: where do we stand? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, pp.1757-778DOI: 10.1002/wcc.33 
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• DiNezio, P, A. Clement, and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Reconciling Differing Views of Tropical Pacific Climate Change. EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union,91(16), 141-152.
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• Lloyd, I.D., and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Submonthly Indian Ocean cooling events and their interaction with large-scale conditions. J .Climate.23, 700-716, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3067.1
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• Xie, S.P., C. Deser, G.A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng and A.T. Wittenberg (2010): Global Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall. J. Climate., 23, 966-986. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1
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• Zheng, X-T, S-P Xie, G.A. Vecchi, Q. Liu, and J. Hafner (2010). Indian Ocean dipole response to global warming: Analysis of ocean-atmospheric feedbacks in a coupled model. J. Climate. 23(5), 1240-1253. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3326.1
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• Chang Y.-S., A. J. Rosati, and G. A. Vecchi (2010): Basin patterns of global sea level changes for 2004-2007, J. Mar. Syst, 80, 115-124, doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.11.003
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• Landsea, C.W., G.A. Vecchi, L. Bengtsson, and T.R. Knutson (2009): Impact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts. J. Climate doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3034.1
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• Bender, M.A., T.R. Knutson, R.E. Tuleya, J.J. Sirutis,G.A. Vecchi, S.T. Garner & I.M. Held (2010): Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes. Science. 327, doi: 10.1126/science.1180568.
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2009

• Harrison, D.E., A.M. Chiodi and G.A. Vecchi (2009): Effects of surface forcing on the seasonal cycle of the eastern equatorial Pacific. J. Marine Research, 67(6), 701-729.
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• Zhao, M., I.M. Held, S.-J. Lin, and G.A. Vecchi (2009). Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50km resolution GCM. J. Climate, 22(24), 6653-6678, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3049.1
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• DiNezio, P.N., A.C. Clement, G.A. Vecchi, B.J. Soden, B.P. Kirtman, S.-K. Lee (2009): Climate Response of the Equatorial Pacific to Global Warming. J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2982.1
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• Lengaigne, M. and G.A. Vecchi (2009). Contrasting the termination of moderate and extreme El Niño events in Coupled General Circulation Models. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0562-3
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• McPhaden, M.J., G.R. Foltz, T. Lee, V.S.N. Murty, M. Ravichandran, G.A. Vecchi, J. Vialard, J.D. Wiggert, L. Yu (2009). Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions During Cyclone Nargis. EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 90(7), 53-60.
  
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2008

• Vecchi, G.A., K.L. Swanson, and B.J. Soden (2008). Whither Hurricane Activity? Science 322 (5902), 687. DOI: 10.1126/science.1164396
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• Vecchi, G.A., and T.R. Knutson (2008). On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Topical Cyclone Activity. J. Climate, 21(14),3580-3600.
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• Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis, S.T. Garner, G.A. Vecchi and I.M. Held (2008): Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions, Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo202
  Full Text and Supplementary Material       Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
• Vecchi, G.A., A. Clement and B.J. Soden (2008). Examining the Tropical Pacific's Response to Global Warming. EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, v.89(9), pp.81,83.
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• Song, Q., G.A. Vecchi and A. Rosati (2008). Predictability of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the GFDL Coupled Model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 5, L02701, doi:10.1029/2007GL031966.
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2007

• Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden (2007): Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity, Nature, 450, 1066-1070 doi:10.1038/nature06423.
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• Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden (2007). Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation. J. Climate, v20(17), 4316-4340.
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• Vecchi, G.A., and M. Harrison (2007). An Indian Ocean Observing System Simulation Experiment. J. Climate, v20(13), 3300-3319.
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• Song, Q., G.A. Vecchi, and A. Rosati (2007). Indian Ocean Variability in the GFDL CM2 Coupled Climate Model. J. Climate, v20(13), 2895-2916
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• Song, Q., G.A. Vecchi, and A. Rosati (2007). The Role of the Indonesian Throughflow in the Indo-Pacific Climate Variability in the GFDL Coupled Climate Model, J. Climate, v20(11), 2434-2451.
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• Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden (2007). Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905.
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• Seager, R., et al. (2007). Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, v316(5828), 1181-1184 doi: 10.1126/science.1139601.
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• Lu, J., G.A. Vecchi, and T. Reichler (2007). Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., V.34, L06805, doi:10.1029/2006GL028443.
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2006

• Vecchi, G.A., B.J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M.J. Harrison (2006). Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature. v.441, doi:10.1038/nature04744.
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• Vecchi, G.A. (2006). The termination of the 1997-98 El Niño. Part II: Mechanisms of Atmospheric Change. J. Climate. v.19, pp.2647-2664.
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• Vecchi, G.A., and D.E. Harrison (2006). The termination of the 1997-98 El Niño. Part I: Mechanisms of Oceanic Change. J. Climate. v.19, pp. 2633-2646.
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• Gnanadesikan, A. et al., (2006): GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models - Part 2: The baseline ocean simulation, J. Climate., v.19, pp.675-697.
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• CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel and Collaborators (2006). Understanding the Role of the Indian Ocean in the Climate System Implementation Plan for Sustained Observations. Southampton, UK, International CLIVAR Project Office, 76pp. (ICPO Publication Series, 100)
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• Vecchi, G.A., A.T. Wittenberg and A. Rosati (2006). Reasessing the role of stochastic forcing in the 1997-8 El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett 33, L01706, doi:10.1029/2005GL024738.
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2004

• Vecchi, G.A., A. Rosati, D.E. Harrison (2004): Setting the timing of El Niño termination. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 85(8), 1065-1066.
  
• Bhat, G. S., G. A. Vecchi and S. Gadgil (2004). Sea Surface Temperature of the Bay of Bengal derived from TRMM. J. Mar. Tech.. 21, 1283-1290.
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• Vecchi, G.A., and D.E. Harrison (2004): Interannual Indian rainfall variability and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies. In Earth Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, C. Wang, S.-P. Xie, and J.A. Carton (eds.), American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Monograph 147, Washington D.C., 247 260
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• Vecchi, G.A., and N.A. Bond (2004): The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and northern high latitude wintertime surface air temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L04104, doi:10.1029/2003GL018645.
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• Vecchi, G.A., S.-P. Xie, and A. Fischer (2004). Air-Sea Coupling over Western Arabian Sea Cold Filaments. J. Climate, 17(6), 1213 1224.
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2003

• Vecchi, G.A. and D.E. Harrison (2003). On the termination of the 2002-3 El Niño event. Geophys Res. Lett., 30(18), 1964-1967.
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• Bond, N.A., and G.A. Vecchi (2003). On the Madden Julian Oscillation and Precipitation in Oregon and Washington. Weather and Forecasting, 18(4), 600-613.
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2002

• Vecchi, G.A., and D.E. Harrison (2002). Monsoon Breaks and sub-seasonal sea surface temperature variability in the Bay of Bengal. J. Climate, 15(12), 1485-1493.
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2001

• Harrison, D.E., R.D. Romea, and G.A. Vecchi (2001). Central Equatorial Pacific Zonal Currents II: The seasonal momentum balances and the boreal spring eastward surface current surge. J. Mar. Res., 59, 921-948.
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• Harrison, D.E., and G.A. Vecchi (2001). January 1999 Indian Ocean cooling event. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28(19), 3717-3720.
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• Harrison, D.E. and G.A. Vecchi (2001). El Niño and La Niña: Equatorial Pacific surface temperature and thermocline variability, 1986-98. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1051-1054.
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2000

• Harrison, D.E., G.A. Vecchi and R.H. Weisberg (2000). Eastward surface jets in the central equatorial Pacific. November 1991-March 1992. J. Marine Res.. 58, 735-754.
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• Vecchi, G.A. (2000). Tropical Pacific sub-seasonal wind variability and El Niño. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Washington.
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• Vecchi, G.A. and D.E. Harrison (2000). Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, El Niño and equatorial westerly wind events. J. Climate, 13(11), 1814-1830.
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1999

• Harrison, D.E. and G.A. Vecchi (1999). On the termination of El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett. V.26 (11), 1593-7.
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1997

• Vecchi, G.A. and D.E. Harrison (1997). Westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific, 1986-1995: An atlas from the ECMWF operational surface wind fields. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL PMEL-109 (NTIS PB97-188213).
  
• Harrison, D.E., and G.A. Vecchi (1997). Westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific, 1986-1995. J. Climate, 10(12), 3131-3156.
  Abstract Article