U.S. Dept. of Commerce / NOAA / OAR / ERL / GFDL *Disclaimer  

    AN OVERVIEW

    SCOPE OF THE LABORATORY'S WORK

    HIGHLIGHTS OF FY97 AND IMMEDIATE OBECTIVES

            ADVANCE SHORT-TERM FORECASTS AND WARNINGS

            SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL CLIMATE FORECASTS

            PREDICT AND ASSESS DECADAL TO CENTENNIAL CHANGES

            BASIC GEOPHYSICAL PROCESSES

    PROJECT ACTIVITIES FY97, PROJECT PLANS FY98

1. CLIMATE DYNAMICS

1.1 OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTION

1.1.1 Response to CO₂ and Sulfate Aerosols

1.1.2 Decadal Variability and Trends in the Tropical Pacific

1.1.3 Cold Ocean-Warm Land Pattern

1.1.4 Thermohaline Circulation and CO₂

1.1.5 Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Greenland Sea

1.1.6 Modeling Study of Water Vapor Feedback

1.1.7 Coupled Model Development

1.2 CONTINENTAL HYDROLOGY AND CLIMATE

1.2.1 Greenhouse-Induced Changes in Extremes of River Discharge

1.2.2 Trend Analysis of Observed River Discharge

1.2.3 Soil-Moisture Predictability and Associated Climate Predictability

1.3 PALEOCLIMATE

1.3.1 Tropical Cooling at Last Glacial Maximum

1.4 PLANETARY WAVE DYNAMICS

1.4.1 Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations

1.4.2 Baroclinic Instability, Geostrophic Turbulence, and Extratropical Dynamics

1.4.2.1 Wave-Mean Flow Interaction in Zonally Asymmetric Flows

1.4.2.2 The Near Surface Branch of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Troposphere

1.4.2.3 Studies of the Tibetan High in the Northern Summer Using Idealized GCMs

1.4.2.4 Studies of the Tropospheric Lapse Rate in Extratropical Latitudes Using Idealized GCMs

1.4.2.5 Geostrophic Turbulence and Eddy Flux Parameterization

1.4.3 NOAA/University Joint Study of the Maintenance of Regional Climates and Low Frequency Variability in GCMs

1.4.3.1 Stochastic Models of Storm Tracks

1.4.3.2 Effective Linear Operators

1.4.3.3 Idealized GCM integrations

1.5 PLANETARY FLUID DYNAMICS

[ Section omitted at author's request ]

2. RADIATION AND CLOUDS

2.1 RADIATIVE TRANSFER

2.1.1 Benchmark Computations

2.1.2 Characteristics of Solar Fluxes

2.2 CONVECTION-CLOUDS-RADIATION-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS

2.2.1 Cumulus Parameterization

2.2.2 Limited-Area Nonhydrostatic Models

2.2.3 Atmospheric Ice Clouds

2.2.4 Radiative-Convective Equilibria with Explicit Moist Convection

2.3 DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES USING SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS

2.3.1 A Lagrangian Analysis of Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

2.3.2 Characteristics of Clear-Sky Solar Absorption

2.3.3 Sensitivity of a GCM to Observed Cloud Properties

2.4 CLIMATIC EFFECTS DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC SPECIES

2.4.1 "Predicted" Cloud Distributions in SKYHI

2.4.2 Observed Ozone Loss and Stratospheric Temperature Change

2.4.3 Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Effects

2.4.4 Radiative Forcing and Climate Response

2.4.5 Tropospheric Ozone Radiative Forcing

2.4.6 Consistency of Ozone and Temperature in the Middle Atmosphere

3. MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE DYNAMICS AND CHEMISTRY

3.1 ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND TRANSPORT

3.1.1 In situ Photochemical Module Development

3.1.2 Off-line Photochemical Module Development

3.1.3 Advection Schemes

3.1.4 Tropospheric Reactive Nitrogen

3.1.5 Stratospheric Ozone

3.1.6 Tropospheric Ozone

3.1.7 Atmospheric Sulfur Chemistry and Transport

3.1.8 Tracer Transport

3.1.9 Transport Dynamics

3.1.10 CO₂ Inverse Modeling

3.2 ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND CIRCULATION

3.2.1 SKYHI Model Development

3.2.2 SKYHI Control Integrations and Basic Model Climatology

3.2.3 Studies of Diurnal Variability

3.2.4 Fine Horizontal Resolution Integration with SKYHI

3.2.5 Explicit Simulation of Convectively-Forced Gravity Waves

3.2.6 Parameterized Gravity Wave Drag in the SKYHI Model

3.2.7 GCM Simulation with an Imposed Tropical Quasi-biennial Oscillation

3.2.8 GCM Simulation of the Ozone Quasi-biennial Oscillation

3.2.9 Observational Studies Using Radiosonde Data

3.2.10 Dynamics of the Martian Atmosphere

4. EXPERIMENTAL PREDICTION

4.1 FLEXIBLE/MODULAR FORECAST MODELING SYSTEM

4.1.1 Atmospheric Model Development

4.1.1.1 Global Atmospheric Grid Point Model

4.1.1.2 Flexible Spectral Model

4.1.1.3 Modular Physics Parameterizations

4.1.1.4 Support Tools for Modular Models

4.1.1.5 Coupled Model Development

4.2 MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR SEASONAL/INTERANNUAL PREDICTION

4.2.1 Development of Atmospheric Subgrid-Scale Parameterizations

4.2.2 Ocean Model Development

4.2.2.1 Ocean Model Simulations

4.2.2.2 Improved Physical Parameterizations

4.3 ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PREDICTION AND PREDICTABILITY

4.3.1 Coupled Model Ensemble Prediction Experiments

4.3.1.1 Experimental Design

4.3.1.2 Frozen Spectral Atmospheric GCM

4.3.2 Impact of Improved Seasonal Cycle on ENSO Forecasts

4.3.3 Sensitivity to Subgrid-Scale Parameterizations

4.3.3.1 Frequency of Radiation Calculations and Inclusion of Diurnal Variation

4.3.3.2 Modification of Cloud Prediction Scheme

4.3.4 Tropical Intraseasonal Variability

4.3.5 Interannual Variability in Atmospheric Models

4.3.6 Simulation of Tropical Storm Frequency

4.3.7 Reproducible Modes in Forced Atmospheric Model Ensembles

4.3.8 Dynamics of Low-Order Coupled Systems

4.3.9 North Atlantic Climate Predictability

4.4 DATA ASSIMILATION

4.4.1 Ocean Data Assimilation

4.4.2 Ensemble Data Assimilation

4.5 OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTION

5. OCEANIC CIRCULATION

5.1 WORLD OCEAN STUDIES

5.1.1 The ACC and the Ocean's Large-Scale Circulation

5.1.2 Thermohaline Circulation in Isopycnal Coordinates

5.1.3 Bottom Boundary Layers in Coarse-Resolution Ocean Models

5.1.4 Sensitivity of Thermally Driven Circulation in MOM and an Isopycnal Coordinate Model

5.1.5 High-Resolution North Atlantic Studies

5.1.6 Nutrient Dynamics in the Equatorial Zone

5.1.7 Oceanic Silica Distribution and Mesoscale Eddy Processes

5.2 MODEL DEVELOPMENT

5.2.1 MOM 2

5.2.2 Continuous Bottom Topography and Bottom Boundary Layer in MOM

5.2.3 Physical Parameterizations

5.2.4 Isopycnal Coordinate Model Development

5.3 COASTAL OCEAN MODELING AND PREDICTION

5.3.1 Sigma Coordinate Ocean Model Development

5.3.2 Data Assimilation and Model Development Experiments

5.3.3 The Coastal Ocean Forecast System

5.3.4 Atlantic Ocean Climate Variability Studies

5.4 CARBON SYSTEM

5.4.1 Anthropogenic CO₂

5.4.2 Ocean Carbon Cycle

5.4.3 Measurements

5.4.4 Oceanic Nitrous Oxide

6. OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES

6.1 DEVELOPMENT OF OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS AND ANALYSIS TOOLS

6.1.1 Enhancing the Information Content of Radiosonde Temperature Data

6.1.2 Acquisition of High-Resolution Satellite Datasets

6.1.3 Development of Statistical Software

6.2 CLOUD PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS

6.2.1 Mesoscale Organization of Cloud Cover in Synoptic Disturbances

6.2.2 Comparison of Model-Simulated Cloud Patterns with Observations

6.3 AIR-SEA INTERACTION

6.3.1 Atmospheric Response to El Niño in a Higher-Resolution GCM

6.3.2 Multi-Decadal R30L14 Experiments with Interannual Variations in SST Forcing

6.3.3 Relationships Between SST Variability in Different Tropical Ocean Basins

6.3.4 Analysis of the Tropical Atmospheric Warming During El Niño

6.4 ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY

6.4.1 Diagnosis of Low-Frequency Retrograding Waves at High-Latitudes

6.4.2 The "Step-Function Like" Nature of the Extratropical Seasonal Cycle

6.5 GFDL/UNIVERSITIES COLLABORATIVE PROJECT FOR MODEL DIAGNOSIS

7. HURRICANE DYNAMICS

7.1 HURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM

7.1.1 Performance in the 1996 Hurricane Season

7.1.2 Analysis of the Forecast Results

7.1.3 The 1997 Hurricane Season

7.2 HURRICANE PREDICTION CAPABILITY

7.2.1 Extended Prediction

7.2.2 Ensemble Forecast

7.2.3 Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Winds

7.2.4 Improvement in the Vortex Specification

7.3 BEHAVIOR OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

7.3.1 Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Interaction

7.3.2 Hurricane Intensity in a High-CO₂ Climate

7.4 COMPARE PROJECT

7.5 MODEL IMPROVEMENT

8. MESOSCALE DYNAMICS

8.1 THE EVOLUTION OF MIDLATITUDE CYCLONES

8.1.1 Observed Cyclone Evolution Along the Pacific Winter Storm Track

8.1.2 Seasonal Variability of Cyclone Activity in Storm Tracks

8.1.3 Interannual Variability of Cyclone Activity in Storm Tracks

8.1.4 Evolution and Feedback of Cyclones in Idealized Storm Tracks

8.2 SENSITIVITY STUDIES OF MIDLATITUDE CYCLONES

8.2.1 Stages in the Energetics of Baroclinic Systems

8.2.2 Nonlinear Baroclinic Wave Equilibration

8.3 TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES IN ATMOSPHERIC FLOWS

8.3.1 Blocking and Frontogenesis in Baroclinic Flows

8.3.2 High Resolution Wave Drag Estimates over Realistic Topography

8.3.3 Effects of Moisture on Mountain Waves

8.3.4 Frontal Interaction with Orography in a Nonhydrostatic Compressible Model

8.4 MODEL DEVELOPMENT

8.4.1 Improvements to the Hydrostatic Zeta Model

8.4.2 Improvements to the Nonhydrostatic Compressible Zeta Model

8.4.3 Model Intercomparisons

9. COMPUTATIONAL SERVICES

9.1 COMPUTER SYSTEMS

9.2 DATA MANAGEMENT AND VISUALIZATION

APPENDIX A  GFDL STAFF MEMBERS AND AFFILIATED PERSONNEL DURING FISCAL YEAR 1997

APPENDIX B GFDL BIBLIOGRAPHY

APPENDIX C SEMINARS GIVEN AT GFDL DURING FISCAL YEAR 1997

APPENDIX D TALKS, SEMINARS, AND PAPERS PRESENTED OUTSIDE GFDL DURING FISCAL YEAR 1997

APPENDIX E ACRONYMS

*Portions of this document contain material that has not yet been formally published and may not be quoted or referenced without explicit permission of the author(s).