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gfdl's home page > gfdl on-line bibliography > 1982: Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 60(1), 292-307
Essay on dynamical long-range forecasts of atmospheric circulation
| Miyakoda, K., and J-P. Chao, 1982: Essay on dynamical long-range forecasts of atmospheric circulation. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 60(1), 292-307. |
| Abstract: The feasibility of monthly and seasonal forecasts is considered. The gross
features of departures of meteorological variables from climatology (anomalies)
are the targets of forecasts, and the anomalies can be divided into two
modes, i.e., free modes and forced modes. The free modes are the anomalies
that are predicted under the specification of climatological external forcings
for the surface temperature, that are free from the anomalous forcings,
whereas, the forced modes are the anomalies that correspond to the anomalous
components of external forcings. The GCM (general circulation model) is,
in some cases, capable of predicting the free mode at least one month ahead
(particularly, the most extraordinary blocking event in January, 1977),
and is, in other cases, marginal. However, the capability could be increased
futher by improving the GCM. In addition, recent studies have revealed that
there are growing evidences for the feasibility of prediction of forced
modes over the United States through the teleconnection process from the
sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial Pacific. Yet the GCM approach is expensive and may be limited in improving mathematical accuracy, to a satisfactory extent. As a remedy, the possibility of anomaly models are being investigated. |