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gfdl's home page > gfdl on-line bibliography > 1985: Numerical Long-Range Forecast Evaluation Numerical Long-Range Forecasting Errors Monthly Forecasts, 292-296
Monthly forecast experiment: preliminary report
| Miyakoda, K., J. Sirutis, and J. Ploshay, 1985: Monthly forecast experiment: preliminary report. In Numerical Long-Range Forecast Evaluation Numerical Long-Range Forecasting Errors Monthly Forecasts, Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 292-296. |
| Abstract: An experiment on monthly forecasts with eight winter cases was conducted by using a 1980 general circulation model that incorporates a set of subgrid-scale physics characterized by Mellor-Yamada turbulence closure (hierarchy level 2.5), the Monin-Obukhov parameterization for the layer next to the ground surface, Manabe's cumulus parameterization, and the soil heat conduction. The cases are for January from 1977 to 1983; they include the extraordinarily severe winter of 1977 and the most pronounced El Niño year of 1983. Graphs show correlation coefficients of 500-mb geopotential height anomalies (the deviation from climatology) and of the 1000-mb geopotential height anomalies between the predictions and observations for the Northern Hemispheric domain (90-25 degrees N). The study indicates that the 10- or 20- day height prognoses resemble the observations well in the first 10 days and then rapidly lose the similarity; yet there is some recognized skill, although marginal in the last 10 or 20 days of the month. The skill scores for the 1000-mb level are consistently better than those for the 500-mb level. This feature appears opposite to that for the daily weather forecasts and may suggest how forecast errors propagate in the vertical. |