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gfdl on-line bibliography > 2007 citations
Statistical tropical cyclone wind radii prediction using climatology and persistence
| Knaff, J. A., C. R. Sampson, M. DeMaria, T. P. Marchok, J. M. Gross, and C. J. McAdie, 2007: Statistical tropical cyclone wind radii prediction using climatology and persistence. Weather and Forecasting, 22(4), 781-791. |
| Abstract: An operational model used to predict tropical cyclone wind structure in terms of significant wind radii (i.e., 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii, where 1 kt = 0.52 m s-1) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Department of Defense/Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is described. The statistical-parametric model employs aspects of climatology and persistence to forecast tropical cyclone wind radii through 5 days. Separate versions of the model are created for the Atlantic, east Pacific, and western North Pacific by statistically fitting a modified Rankine vortex, which is generalized to allow wavenumber-1 asymmetries, to observed values of tropical cyclone wind radii as reported by NHC and JTWC. Descriptions of the developmental data and methods used to formulate the model are given. A 2-yr verification and comparison with operational forecasts and an independently developed wind radii forecast method that also employs climatology and persistence suggests that the statistical-parametric model does a good job of forecasting wind radii. The statistical-parametric model also provides reliable operational forecasts that serve as a baseline for evaluating the skill of operational forecasts and other wind radii forecast methods in these tropical cyclone basins. |