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GFDL Research Highlights

May 24th, 2023 - A Mechanistic Sea Spray Generation Function Based on the Sea State and the Physics of Bubble Bursting

Bubbles bursting at the ocean surface are an important source of sea spray aerosols. They contribute to atmospheric aerosols and play a crucial role in radiative and cloud processes. Uncertainties related to the large range of scales involved, and the complexity of the processes, leads to open questions about the dependencies on wind speed, ocean wave properties and water temperature. Read More…

May 11th, 2023 - Increases in Extreme Precipitation over the Northeast United States using High-resolution Climate Model Simulations

Extreme precipitation is among the most destructive natural disasters. Simulating changes in regional extreme precipitation remains challenging, partially limited by the horizontal resolution in climate models. For this study, the authors used an ensemble of high-resolution (25-km) global climate model simulations to study extreme precipitation over the Northeastern United States, where extremes have increased rapidly since the mid-1990s. Read More…

December 30th, 2022 - Reduction in Near-Surface Wind Speeds With Increasing CO2 May Worsen Winter Air Quality in the Indo-Gangetic Plain

The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), stretching from Pakistan to Bangladesh across Northern India, and home to over 800 million people, experiences among the most elevated concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the world. High local anthropogenic emissions associated with waste and crop residue burning, transportation, industry, and power generation are the primary cause for the poor air quality in the region. Unlike other major population centers in Europe, the United States, and China, air pollution has been worsening in the IGP over the last two decades. Exposure to such high levels of air pollution are estimated to reduce average life expectancy by nearly a decade. Read More…

August 29th, 2022 - A Simple Conceptual Model for the Self-sustained Multidecadal AMOC Variability

Multidecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been reconstructed by various proxies, simulated in climate models, and linked to multidecadal Arctic salinity variability. However, the mechanisms of the multidecadal AMOC variability and its two-way interaction with the Arctic salinity anomaly, as well as the factors affecting the periods and amplitudes of the multidecadal AMOC variability are not well understood from the theoretical perspective using simple conceptual models. Read More…

May 11th, 2022 - Substantial global influence of anthropogenic aerosols on tropical cyclones over the past 40 years

Research reveals how pollution control measures in Europe and the United States over the past 40 years led to significantly decreased anthropogenic aerosols. During the same time period, economic and industrial growth in South and East Asia led to increased anthropogenic aerosols in those regions. The impact of these changes suggests effects on both the frequency of global tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons), as well as a shift in the global wind circulation.. Read More…

April 19th, 2022 - Regional Sensitivity Patterns of Arctic Ocean Acidification Revealed with Machine Learning

Ocean acidification (OA) is a consequence of the absorption of anthropogenic carbon emissions and it profoundly impacts marine life. Arctic regions are particularly vulnerable to rapid pH changes due to low ocean buffering capacities and high stratification. This research applied unsupervised machine learning methodology to simulations of surface Arctic acidification using two state-of-the-art coupled climate models. The authors identified four sub-regions whose boundaries are influenced by present-day and projected sea ice patterns. The regional boundaries are consistent between the models and across lower and higher carbon emissions scenarios. Read More…

April 12th, 2022 - Patterns and frequency of projected future tropical cyclone genesis are governed by dynamic effects

Potential future changes in the genesis frequency and distribution of tropical cyclones are important for society, yet uncertain. Confidence in model projections largely relies on whether we can physically explain why the models projected such changes. After analyzing climate simulations from multiple models, the authors find that future changes in the patterns and frequency of tropical cyclone genesis are largely governed by dynamic effects—that is, by human-induced changes in the atmospheric circulation. Read More…

April 5th, 2022 - S2S Prediction in GFDL SPEAR: MJO Diversity and Teleconnections

Prediction on weather and seasonal timescales has become routine, but the “subseasonal” time scale of a few weeks has proven difficult. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a large complex of tropical thunderstorms, is the dominant subseasonal phenomenon over the tropics, and its prediction is critical for subseasonal prediction of tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and other extreme events. Read More…

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