Abstract:
The GFDL CM2.1 global coupled GCM exhibits strong interdecadal and
intercentennial modulation of its ENSO behavior. To the extent that such
modulation is realistic, it puts large error bars on ENSO metrics diagnosed
from centennial and shorter records -- with important implications for
model assessment and intercomparison, climate projections, and historical
and paleo records. We shall discuss the causes and effects of this ENSO
modulation, including its links to the background climatology, inter-event
memory, seasonal phase locking, and decadal predictability.