| Abstract: The effects of model initial conditions and the starting
time of transient radiative forcings on global mean surface air temperature
(SAT) and the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) are studied
in a set of coupled climate GCM experiments. Nine climate change scenario
experiments, in which the effective levels of greenhouse gases and tropospheric
sulfate aerosols vary in time, are initialized from various points in a
long control model run. The time at which the transition from constant
to transient radiative forcing takes place is varied in the scenario runs,
occurring at points representing either year 1766, 1866 or 1916. The sensitivity
of projected 21st century global mean SATs and the THC to the choice of
radiative forcing transition point is small, and is similar in magnitude
to the variability arising from variations in the coupled GCM's initial
three-dimensional state.
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