| Abstract: One of the possible impacts of global warming is on tropical cyclones, on their formation, track, intensity and decay rates. One of the consequences of global warming appears to be not only an increase in sea surface temperature, but more importantly a potential increase in the overall energy flux at the tropical ocean surface. Theoretical considerations imply that this increased surface disequilibrium may lead to more intense tropical storms. Three-dimensional numerical modeling is another approach to evaluating these potential consequences. Since global models are still rather limited in simulating mesoscale storm structure, this paper describes a regional modeling approach utilizing a multiple nested technique which has already been shown to be practical in operational forecasts. These
3-D model results confirm theoretical methods that indicate an increase of 3 to 10% in maximum wind speeds for a CO2 tropical SST warming of ~2.5°C. Perhaps more importantly, model results indicate a 20 to 30% increase in hurricane-related precipitation. Furthermore, the resulting increases in intensity and precipitation appear to be qualitatively insensitive to changes in convective parameterization. This paper emphasizes the impact of global warming on storm intensity and precipitation. The question of the possible impact on tropical storm frequency and track is still problematic. |