Next Month Outlook (upper panels) and Three months climate (lower panels)
Map Legend:
Larger than 5% is ABOVE normal, between +5% and -5% is NORMAL (climatology) and less than -5% is BEL
OW normal
The ensemble mean forecast from a number of numerical model runs are used in the maps shown above. Since the monthly forecast depends on the tropical sea surface temperatures (SST). A model that incorporates the atmosphere and oceans (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model) is used for forecasting the SST.
Predictive accuracy for temperature peaks in the late winter with a secondary peak in the late summer-and is lowest in the late spring and late fall. For all models precipitation forecasts are generally less skillful than temperature -- However when strong El Nino conditions are present - Precipitation skill can be as high or even higher than Temperature skill for cool season forecasts for a number of areas of the U.S.- Including the southern Third - The northern Rockies - The high Plains and the Ohio valley. Strong La Nina conditions imply the possibility of moderate precipitation. This products are made by the Climate Prediction Center NCEP National Weather Service (NOAA).