June 8th, 2026
A study led by Vimal Koul, a postdoctoral scholar in NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System with Princeton University, was recognized as one of the Top 10% Most-Viewed Papers published in Geophysical Research Letters in 2024. The paper, “A Predicted Pause in the Rapid Warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf in the Coming Decade,” was co-authored by Andrew C. Ross, Charles Stock, Thomas Delworth, Andrew Wittenberg, and Liping Zhang (UCAR). The study examines near-term ocean temperature change along the Northwest Atlantic Shelf, a region important to fisheries, coastal economies, and communities. Using GFDL’s Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research (SPEAR) model, dynamically downscaled with a high-resolution regional configuration of GFDL’s Modular Ocean Model 6 (MOM6), the authors generated skillful multi-year regional ocean temperature predictions. The results forecast a temporary pause in the region’s rapid warming over the coming decade, even as long-term warming continues, and linked the pause to natural ocean variability associated with modest strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and a southward shift of the Gulf Stream. Recent observations are consistent with the predicted southward shift of the Gulf Stream and return of cooler waters. The work, conducted as part of NOAA’s Changing Ecosystems and Fisheries Initiative, demonstrates how improved regional prediction capabilities can support better understanding of ocean conditions affecting ecosystems, fisheries, and coastal communities, and updated predictions from the high-resolution model are now being included in NOAA Fisheries’ State of the Ecosystem reports for the New England and Mid-Atlantic regions.