Experimental Seasonal Forecasts
Each month GFDL makes experimental predictions for seasonal variations in El Niño, Hurricanes, Arctic Sea Ice, and other phenomena of relevance to the US. We use the latest observations of the atmosphere and ocean to make these predictions using our leading edge tools, ranging from comprehensive computer models (SPEAR) to machine learning and artificial intelligence based techniques.1 Below are summaries of our experimental predictions, along with links to learn about these results in greater detail.
- Note that these experimental predictions are not official NOAA forecasts. ↩︎
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May 2026 El Niño Predictions
The latest experimental predictions continue to indicate a likely transition to El Niño conditions by summer and the high probability of a strong El Niño by fall. However, the large model spread (the differences between the individual purple lines) indicates that there still is considerable uncertainty in the precise strength of the El Niño predicted by SPEAR due to the influence of chaotic weather variability.
The figure shows the latest experimental seasonal predictions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the GFDL SPEAR prediction system. The predictions (purple lines) started on May 1, 2026 and extend through April 30, 2027 (x-axis). The y-axis indicates the strength of El Niño or La Niña, with more positive values indicating a stronger El Niño (warmer water in the east-central tropical Pacific relative to the tropical average temperature). The individual lines represent different forecast realizations starting from slightly different initial states, representing the forecast uncertainty from chaotic climate variability. The thick solid lines represent the average of all realizations, showing the forecast signal after filtering out the influence of chaotic climate variability. The green lines represent the predictions from the previous month, illustrating how much the forecast has changed. For a comparison with other experimental ENSO predictions from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), click here, and for latest NOAA ENSO Outlook, click here. Additional information on ENSO, including impacts, can be found here.
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April 2026 El Niño Predictions
The latest experimental predictions indicate an elevated probability of a transition to El Niño conditions by summer and continued El Niño strengthening through early winter. Although chaotic climate variability (the spread of the individual lines) limits confidence in the strength of the predicted El Niño, the SPEAR predictions indicate an unusually high likelihood of a moderate-to-strong El Niño by fall.
The figure shows the latest experimental seasonal predictions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the GFDL SPEAR prediction system. The predictions (purple lines) started on April 1, 2026 and extend through March 31, 2027 (x-axis). The y-axis indicates the strength of El Niño or La Niña, with more positive values indicating a stronger El Niño (warmer water in the east-central tropical Pacific relative to the tropical average temperature). The individual lines represent different forecast realizations starting from slightly different initial states, representing the forecast uncertainty from chaotic climate variability. The thick solid lines represent the average of all realizations, showing the forecast signal after filtering out the influence of chaotic climate variability. The green lines represent the predictions from the previous month, illustrating how much the forecast has changed. For a comparison with other experimental ENSO predictions from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), click here, and for latest NOAA ENSO Outlook, click here. Additional information on ENSO, including impacts, can be found here.