GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Application of Seasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions for Marine Resource Management Workshop

Dates: June 3-5, 2015

Location: Lewis Library, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ.

Objective: To bring together fisheries and climate scientists to:

  • Assess the utility of present seasonal to decadal climate predictions for marine resource management, and
  • Develop proof-of-concept applications on the use of climate forecast systems in the fisheries management framework.

Day 1

Talks and discussions will be aimed at

  • Providing an overview of climate effects on fisheries and the fisheries management framework
  • Communicating the capabilities of present seasonal to decadal prediction systems, and
  • Presenting a synthesis of the predictive skill of seasonal to decadal climate predictions for ecosystem-relevant physical climate variables.
Time Topic
8:30-9:00 Continental breakfast. Welcome, introductions, outline aims of day 1
9:00-9:30 The fisheries management process: data inputs, assumptions,management time frames, and harvest control rules, Dr. Rick Methot, NOAA Fisheries
9:30-10:00 Incorporating climate into ecosystem-based fisheries management, Dr. Sarah Gaichas, NOAA Fisheries
10:00-10:30 Break
10:30-11:00 Adaptation approaches for climate-ready fisheries management, Dr.Malin Pinsky, Rutgers University
11:00-11:30 How good do climate and ecosystem predictions need to be to be useful to the fisheries management process? Dr. Jon Hare, NOAA Fisheries
11:30-12:30 Discussion session 1 – Facilitator: Dr. Cisco Werner, NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center

  • What are the temporal and spatial scales of prediction most useful to fisheries managers?
  • How can we better understand the relationship between marine resources and environmental drivers?
  • How robust are present marine resources-environmental drivers relationships? When are they robust enough for integration into marine resources management frameworks?
12:30-1:30 Lunch
1:30-2:00 Design, output streams, strengths, and limitations of present seasonal to interannual climate prediction systems, Dr. Gabe Vecchi,NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
2:00-2:20 Real-time ocean reanalyses intercomparison for quantifying uncertainties in ocean reanalyses and monitoring climate variability, Dr. Yan Xue, Climate Prediction Center, NCEP
2:20-2:40 Prediction of SST anomalies in coastal ecosystems, Dr. Charles Stock, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory 
2:40-3:00 Seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice, Dr. Rym Msadek,University Corporation for Atmospheric Research/ NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
3:00-3:30 Break
3:30-4:00 Seasonal forecast skill in NMME, Dr. Emily Becker
4:00-5:30 Discussion session 2 – Facilitator: Dr. Mike Alexander, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

  • What are major strengths and limitations of seasonal forecasts systems with regards to resource management applications?
  • How can the uncertainty in the climate forecast be best characterized for inclusion into the fisheries management framework?
5:30-8:00 Reception and poster session

Day 2

Talks and discussions will be aimed at

  • Presenting examples of successful implementation of seasonal forecasts in marine management
  • Identifying further proof of concept applications to assess the utility of seasonal climate predictions for marine resource management.
Time Topic
8:30-9:00 Continental breakfast. Welcome, outline aims of day 2
9:00-10:00 Dynamic seasonal ocean forecasts to aid fisheries management – The Australian experience, Dr. Alistair Hobday, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization
10:00-10:30 Break
10:30-11:00 Operational Management of tuna fisheries: from real time to decadal predictions of tuna stocks, Dr. Marion Gehlen, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement
11:00-11:30 Spatial management of bluefin tuna in the Gulf of Mexico, Dr. Barbara Muhling, Princeton University/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
11:30-12:00 Seasonal to decadal modeling of coral bleaching thermal stress, Dr. Mark Eakin, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
12:00-1:00 Lunch
1:00-1:25 NOAA’s Ecological Forecasting Roadmap, Ms. Allison Allen, NOAA National Ocean Service
1:25-1:50 Forecasting the spatial distribution of Pacific sardine in the Pacific Northwest, Dr. Isaac Kaplan, NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center
1:50-2:15 Incorporating seasonal climate forecasts into a harvest guideline control rule for Pacific sardine, Dr. Desiree Tommasi, Princeton University/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
2:15-2:45 Break
2:45-3:10 Lobster landings forecasts, Dr. Andrew Pershing, Gulf of Maine Research Institute
3:10-3:30 Towards decadal forecasts in North Atlantic marine Ecosystems, Dr. Mark Payne, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark
3:30-5:00 Discussion session 3 – Facilitator: Dr. Janet Nye, Stony Brook University

  • What are some good candidate species for successful implementation of seasonal forecasts in management in each NMFS region, both from a spatial management and a catch limit perspective?
  • What consistent evaluation framework can be developed to assess utility of additional seasonal climate information to the marine resources management process?
  • What are some research priorities in both forecast systems and fisheries models in moving from proof of concept to operational use?

Day 3

Talks and discussions will be aimed at presenting some of the future challenges facing the use of seasonal climate predictions for marine resource management.

Time Topic
8:30-9:00 Continental breakfast. Welcome, outline aims of day 3
9:00-9:30 The challenge of scale: downscaling techniques to help refine seasonal predictions, Mr. Keith Dixon, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
9:30-10:00 Decadal climate prediction: physical underpinnings and future prospects, Dr. Tom Delworth, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
10:00-10:30 Break
10:30-11:00 Confronting ecosystem tipping points in ocean management and conservation: the predictable and the unpredictable, Dr. Jameal Samhouri, NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center
11:00-12:00 Discussion session 4 – Facilitator: Dr. Desiree Tommasi, Princeton University/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

  • What are the benefits and limitations of downscaled projections with regards to fisheries environmental data needs?
  • What information can decadal forecasts provide fisheries managers?
  • What are some best practices to apply seasonal climate forecast information into the marine resource management framework?
12:00-12:15 Closing remarks, key next steps, developments for short term progress, and upcoming opportunities.

Manuscripts referenced in presentations

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