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GFDL Events & Seminars

Upcoming GFDL events & seminars

Events and seminars
  • February 17, 2016: Strange Floods: The Upper Tail of Flood Peaks in the Conterminous US
    James Smith
    We examine the nature of the upper tail of flood peaks in the US, principally through close analyses of two flood events. The 1927 flood in the Lower Mississippi River produced the largest flood peak discharge in the US Geological Survey (USGS) stream gaging record and was the most destructive flood in American history. The 14 June 1903 flood which devastated Heppner, Oregon was arguably the strangest flood in the conventional stream gaging record of the USGS. We reconstruct the storms and storm environments for the 1927 and 1903 flood events through downscaling simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. We place the 1927 Mississippi River flood and 1903 Heppner flood in a hydroclimatological context through analyses of 20th Century Reanalysis fields and through intercomparisons with the largest flood events in the USGS stream gaging record. Analyses of the largest observed floods in the US point to fundamental difficulties in characterizing the upper tail properties of floods that are envisioned as key to development of societally acceptable design standards for flood hazards. We also point to advances in climate modeling that are needed to assess hazards from extreme floods in both current and future climates.
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • February 18, 2016: Exploring Air Quality in a Changing World
    Colette Heald (MIT)
    Tropospheric gases and particles impact human and environmental health, visibility, and climate. While tremendous strides have been made to clean up the air in recent decades, poor air quality continues to plague many regions of the world. Uncertainty on the impacts of short-lived atmospheric constituents also dominates uncertainty in climate forcing. And critically our understanding of how global change will feedback on to atmospheric chemistry and surface air quality is limited. In this talk, I will highlight some of the connections between global change and air quality. In particular, I plan to discuss (1) how land use change plays an important, and often neglected, role in controlling air quality, (2) how meteorology drives air pollution and how accurately this is represented in global models, and (3) the uncertainties and importance of brown carbon.
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:30 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • February 23, 2016: History of GFDL-Princeton Connection
    Joseph Smagorinsky (video recording)
    This is a video presentation of a seminar by Dr. Joseph Smagorinsky on November 30, 1989.
    Time: 11:00 am - 12:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • February 25, 2016: The changing hydrology of the western U.S.
    Dennis Lettenmaier (UCLA)
    California is entering the fourth year of a severe drought, which in some respects (certainly in terms of mountain snowpack) is unprecedented in the instrumental record. The drought has mostly been characterized by dryness during the critical winter months, leading to anomalously low spring snowpacks and spring and summer runoff. However, winter 2013-14, and even more so 2014-15 were exceptionally warm – over much of the state, winter 2014-15 was the warmest of record. Furthermore, the exceptional warmth covered most of the Pacific Coast states of Washington and Oregon as well as California in winter 2014-15, and even though winter precipitation over the northernmost part of this region was near normal, over 80 percent of long-term snow courses in these three states had record low readings on April 1. These readings were lower (and in many cases, much lower) than 1977, the previous low of record for most of these stations. The Colorado River basin is also experiencing a continuing drought, which while somewhat less severe than California’s has been more persistent and has now continued for more than a decade. An interesting aspect of the Colorado River drought is that streamflow declines, by some measures, have been more severe than predicted by hydrological models. I report on evaluations of long-term (~100-year) trends in winter temperature in California, as well as Washington and Oregon and the Colorado basin, and show that there are substantial differences (approaching factor of 2 over California) in the magnitude of the trend from various gridded data sets. Furthermore, while all data sets agree for California that the winter averages of daily temperature minima have increased over the last 100 years, even the sign of changes in daily temperature maxima are inconsistent across data sets. I report on work that has used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to reconstruct long-term snow water storage over California with and without the estimated trend from the various data sets, and from these results infer the contribution of long-term warming to the winter 2013-14 and 2014-15 snow water storage anomalies.
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • March 2, 2016: TBD
    Gabriel Chiodo (Columbia University)
    TBD
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • March 3, 2016: TBD
    Adam Scaife (UK MET Office/Exeter, UK )
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • March 7, 2016: TBD
    Anja Westemayer (Munich Re)
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • March 9, 2016: TBD
    Aditi Sheshadri (Columbia University)
    TBD
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • March 10, 2016: TBD
    Tom Ryerson (ESRL/CSD)
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • March 16, 2016: TBD
    Max Popp (GFDL)
    TBD
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • March 17, 2016: TBD
    Mike Ek (NCEP/EMC)
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • March 23, 2016: Impact of upper Troposhheric temperature anomalies and verticle wind shear on tropical cyclone evolution using an idealized versoin of the operational GFDL Hurrican Model
    Robert Tulea, Morris Bender, Thomas Knutson
    The GFDL hurricane modelling system, initiated in the 1970s, has progressed from a research tool to an operational system over four decades. This system is still in use today in research and operations, and its evolution is briefly described. This study used an idealized version of the 2014 GFDL model to test its sensitivity across a wide range of three environmental factors that are often identified as key factors in tropical cyclone (TC) evolution: SST, atmospheric stability (upper air thermal anomalies), and vertical wind shear (westerly through easterly). A wide range of minimum central pressure intensities resulted (905 to 980hPa). The results confirm that a scenario (e.g., global warming) in which the upper troposphere warms relative to the surface will have less TC intensification than one with a uniform warming with height. For example, a warming of 2oC aloft, and increase of 2oC SST will lead to an decrease of ~10hPa in SLP; with no relative warming aloft, the decrease would be ~20hPa. TC rainfall is also investigated for the SST-stability parameter space Rainfall also increases for combinations of SST increase and increasing stability similar to global warming scenarios, and consistent with climate change TC downscaling studies with the GFDL model. The GFDL 2014 forecast system’s sensitivity to vertical shear was also investigated. The idealized model simulations showed weak disturbances dissipating under strong easterly and westerly shear of 10 m s-1. A small tendency for greater intensity under easterly sheared versus westerly sheared environments was found at lower values of SST. The impact of vertical shear on intensity was different when a strong vortex was used in the simulations. In this case none of the initial disturbances weakened, and most intensified to some extent.
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • March 24, 2016: Formal Seminar Series
    Formal Seminar Series
    Formal Seminar Series
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • March 31, 2016: TBD
    Sandrine Bony (University Pierre et Marie Curie)
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:30 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • April 7, 2016: TBD
    Thierry Penduff (Grenoble Institute of Technology)
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • April 14, 2016: TBD
    Julia Slingo (UK Met Offfice, Exeter, UK)
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:30 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • April 20, 2016: Value of Ocean Prediction for Fisheries Management
    Desiree Tommasi
    TBD
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • April 21, 2016: TBD
    Rita Colwell (University of Maryland)
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • April 29, 2016: TBD
    Steven Klein (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
    TBD
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • May 4, 2016: TBD
    Salvatore Pascale (Caltech)
    TBD
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • May 5, 2016: TBD
    Xuebin Zhang (Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada)
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • May 12, 2016: TBD
    Danny Feltham (University of Reading, UK)
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:30 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • May 19, 2016: TBD
    Simona Bordoni (California Institute of Technology)
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • June 1, 2016: TBD
    Christa Peters-Lidard (NASA Goddard)
    TBD
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • June 2, 2016: TBD
    Alessandra Giannini (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University)
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • June 6, 2016: Ron Stouffer Symposium
    Ron Stouffer Symposium
    For the past 38 years, Ron Stouffer's comprehensive research contributions at GFDL have expanded scientific understanding of the atmosphere, oceans, and climate through high performance supercomputing with mathematical models of the Earth system. Ron's accomplishments include the development, along with Suki Manabe, of the first coupled atmosphere-ocean models for global climate warming projections, new understanding of natural modes of climate variability, palecolimate, atmosphere and ocean responses to natural and human-influenced factors, and ongoing leadership of both model development within GFDL and community synthesis efforts through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. To commemorate Ron Stouffer's illustrious career, we are in the early planning stage to hold a one day Symposium at GFDL. We are planning three forward-looking science sessions focusing on topics on which Ron's career has had demonstrable impact. The morning session will foucs on scientific talks relating to climate change and community assessments therof, followed by a panel discussion on the increasing overlap between climate modeling and impact assessments and to what extent can they be merged. The afternoon session will include a range of climate-related talks on regional patterns, variability, sea level rise, the carbon system and other topics on which Ron has demonstrated scientific leadership. For more information click here
    Time: 9:00 am - 6:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • June 8, 2016: Lunch Time Seminar Series
    Lunch Time Seminar Series
    Lunch Time Seminar Series
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room

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