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Research Highlight

Estuarine forecasts at daily weather to subseasonal time scales


October 21, 2020 – Estuary and coastal ocean forecasts based on predictions of temperature, salinity, currents, and storm surge have been shown to be able to protect lives and property from storm surge, assist search and rescue operations, and protect public health. These forecasts enable predictions of harmful algal blooms and the dispersion of oil spills. Many estuaries are also home to ecologically and economically important ecosystems and fisheries, and forecasts may also be useful for improving the management of fisheries and locating ideal fishing spots. This research demonstrates that temperature and salinity can be skillfully forecast at both the bottom and surface levels of an estuary up to two weeks in advance. NOAA currently maintains a number of operational forecast systems for estuaries, including in Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and San Francisco Bay, which forecast conditions for the next 48 hours.

Research Highlight

Simulations of Atmospheric Rivers, Their Variability and Response to Global Warming Using GFDL’s New High-Resolution General Circulation Model


October 13, 2020 – The authors describe a systematic evaluation of GFDL’s new 50km high-resolution version of the AM4 atmospheric model, for its ability to simulate atmospheric river (AR) characteristics including climatology, variability and future change. This study is relevant for assessing the model’s ability to simulate and predict weather and climate extremes such as flood, drought and extreme winds.

Research Highlight

GFDL SHiELD: A Unified System for Weather-to-Seasonal Prediction


October 7, 2020 – At many weather forecasting centers, different computer weather models are run for different applications. In the U.S., there are separate models for short-range, long-range, seasonal, and hurricane forecasting. Each specialized model is designed by different experts to get the best results. However, having separate models multiplies the effort needed to maintain and upgrade each model, and makes it difficult to move improvements from one model to another.

News

50 Years of Science, Service, and Stewardship


September 28, 2020 – This year, NOAA marks 50 years of science, service, and stewardship. Since 1970, NOAA has grown to become a world-class science agency with a reach that extends from the surface of the sun to the depths of the ocean floor. NOAA’s workforce is in the field and in the office, in planes, on ships above water, under water, on beaches, and on ice.

See how NOAA connects science to life.

Award

GFDL Director Selected to Deliver Jule Gregory Charney Lecture at AGU

V. Ramaswamy
September 30, 2020 – V. “Ram” Ramaswamy, GFDL’s Director, has been selected to give the 2020 Jule Gregory Charney Lecture at the Fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU). Each year, AGU chooses a “prominent scientist who has made exceptional contributions to the understanding of weather and climate” to deliver the Charney Lecture.

Research Highlight

Increased risk of the 2019 Alaskan July fires due to anthropogenic activity

Alaskan Wildfire
September 24, 2020 – Extreme wildfires have increased in Alaska, affecting the economy and public health of an entire region. The authors assessed the influence of anthropogenic activities on extreme fires in Alaska, taking advantage of the modeling capability of GFDL’s Earth System Model (ESM4.1) to simulate the complex interactions between fire, climate, land ecosystem, and human activity.

News

Improving Ocean Habitat Forecasts for the Northeast U.S.


September 18, 2020Charles Stock, research oceanographer at GFDL, and Andrew Ross, Princeton University associate research scholar, are lead investigators of a new initiative to improve seasonal to interannual ocean habitat forecasts for the Northeast U.S. Many fisheries management decisions are made weeks to months in advance. Therefore, providing skillful climate and ocean forecasts may improve both fisheries yields and sustainability.

Award

Rong Zhang Recognized by American Meteorological Society


August 19, 2020Rong Zhang, research oceanographer at GFDL and a leading expert on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, has been selected by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) to be the Bernhard Haurwitz Lecturer. In recognizing Dr. Zhang, the AMS cited her for “advancing scientific understanding of the causes and impacts of Atlantic multidecadal variability and Arctic sea ice variations through insightful analysis of models and observations.”.

Research Highlight

Projected Changes in South Asian Monsoon Low-pressure Systems

July 24, 2020 – Monsoon low-pressure systems (MLPSs) are the primary rain-producing synoptic-scale systems over the Indian subcontinent, and are estimated to be responsible for more than half of the annual precipitation in agrarian North and Central India. Changes in the characteristics of MLPSs, whether natural or forced, have far-reaching socio-economic impacts.

News

Improving weather and climate modeling by studying the impact of the COVID-19-related decline in emissions of air pollutants

June 9, 2020 – Restrictions on travel and social interactions implemented to limit the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a reduced number of on-road vehicles and industrial production, leading to a significant decline in emissions of air pollutants. The resulting improvements in air quality and visibility have been widely reported in the media.

Research Highlight

A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier

June 2, 2020 – Observations over the past 40 years have documented a significant decline in Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. These rapid changes and their implications for Northern communities, shipping industries, wildlife, fisheries, and natural resource industries have created an emerging operational need for regional summer sea-ice predictions. How far in advance can accurate predictions of regional summer sea ice be made?