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Visualizations - Climate Predictions

Patterns of Greenhouse Warming

Title NOAA GFDL CM3 Climate Model
Description This animation shows the time evolution of annual mean surface air temperature and sea-ice cover over the historical time period (1860-2005) and projected over the 21st century (2006-2100), as simulated by the NOAA GFDL CM3 climate model. Projection over the 2006-2100 time period is based on Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) developed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5). Concentrations and emissions of greenhouse gases, ozone depleting substances, and short-lived air pollutants including aerosols follow a "medium-low" trajectory resulting in the net radiative forcing of 4.5 Watts per square meter (equivalent to increasing carbon dioxide alone by a factor of about 2.3x) by 2100. More information on RCP scenarios is provided on the RCP emission scenario website. More information on the GFDL CM3 model is provided on http://gfdl.noaa.gov/acpc_highlights_2010_11_donner.
Model name Coupled Climate Model (CM 3)
Scientist(s) Larry Horowitz
Date created April 2010
Visualization Personnel Paidemwoyo Munhutu, Vaishali Naik
Files Mpeg (55 MB)
Avi (416 MB)
Png (423 KB)
Flash
HTML5 Video

Title Surface Air Temperature Anomalies
Description Coupled Climate Model (CM 2.1) projection of surface air temperature anomalies from years 1971-2100.
Model name Coupled Climate Model (CM 2.1)
Scientist(s) Keith Dixon
Date created October 2005
Visualization Personnel Remik Ziemlinski
Files Mpeg (2.4 MB)
Flash
HTML5 Video
Png (244 KB)
Tif (2.3 MB)

 

Title NOAA/GFDL CM2.1 Climate Model
Description Projected change in annual mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century (1971-2000 average) to the middle 21st century (2051-2060 average). The change is in response to increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols based on a "middle of the road" estimate of future emissions. This scenario is denoted as IPCC SRES A1B. Warming is larger over continents than oceans, and is largest at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. These results are from the GFDL CM2.1 model, but are consistent with a broad consensus of modeling results. Additional information on this topic, including a two page PDF summary, can be found on our Climate Research Highlights: Patterns of Greenhouse Warming web page.
Model name CM2.1 Climate Model
Scientist(s) Thomas Delworth
Ronald Stouffer
Michael Winton
Date created
Visualization Personnel Keith Dixon
Files Png - 1920x1163 Black Background (412 KB)
Png - 3200x1937 Black Background (799 KB)
Png - 720x480 White Background
Png - 3200x1901 White Background

Title NOAA/GFDL CM2.1 Climate Model
Description GFDL CM2.1 model-simulated change in seasonal mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century (1971-2000 average) to the middle 21st century (2051-2060). The left panel shows changes for June July August (JJA) seasonal averages, and the right panel shows changes for December January February (DJF). The simulated surface air temperature changes are in response to increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols based on a "middle of the road" estimate of future emissions This scenario is denoted as IPCC SRES A1B. Warming is projected to be larger over continents than oceans, and is largest at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF). Additional information on this topic, including a two page PDF summary, can be found on our Climate Research Highlights: Patterns of Greenhouse Warming web page.
Model name CM2.1 Climate Model
Scientist(s) Thomas Delworth
Ronald Stouffer
Michael Winton
Date created
Visualization Personnel Keith Dixon
Files Png - 1920x1220 Black Background (412 KB)
Png - 3180x2060 Black Background (799 KB)
Png - 720x480 White Background
Png - 3200x2000 White Background

Title NOAA/GFDL CM2.1 Climate Model
Description This animation depicts the time evolution of annual mean surface air temperature changes as projected by the NOAA GFDL CM2.1 climate model. The animations show the time period 1970 to 2100. For each time level shown, the temperature differences (or anomalies) were calculated by subtracting the model-simulated average for the years 1971 to 2000 from the time varying 21st century model-projected temperatures. The changes depicted in the animation are in response to increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols based on a "middle of the road" estimate of future emissions. This scenario is denoted as IPCC SRES A1B.
These animations were produced using the output of the CM2.1 "H2" historical experiment for the 20th century time period and the CM2.1 SRES A1B run for the 2001-2100 period. Additional information on this topic, including a two page PDF summary, can be found on our Climate Research Highlights: Patterns of Greenhouse Warming web page.
Model name CM2.1 Climate Model
Scientist(s) Thomas Delworth
Ronald Stouffer
Michael Winton
Date created
Visualization Personnel Keith Dixon
Files 720x480 Mov (13MB)
720x480 Avi (12MB)
1280x720 Mov (27MB)
1280x 720 Avi (17MB)
HTML5 Video

Ozone Decline and Recovery

Title Stratosphere-troposphere transport of ozone in NOAA/GFDL AM3 c180 model
Description Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone as simulated in the high-resolution (~50x50 km2), full chemistry GFDL AM3 model. The animation illustrates the 3-hourly progression of a deep stratospheric ozone intrusion with a tropopause fold occurring over the Northeast Pacific Ocean during the CalNex field campaign in May 2010, followed by its break away from the main polar vortex and southeastward transport of injected stratospheric ozone to the western U.S. lower troposphere.
Model name AM3 c180L48 chemistry-climate model
Scientist(s) Meiyun Lin
Arlene Fiore (GFDL alumna, now at Columbia University)
Larry Horowitz
Date created 2011
Visualization Personnel
Files 1280x720 Mov (20 MB)
Flash
HTML5 Video

Title Total Ozone Column
Description The animation shows the evolution of northern and southern hemisphere ozone as simulated in the GFDL coupled chemistry-climate model. The animation covers the period 1960 to 2100 and shows the development and disappearance of the Antarctic ozone hole.
Model name
Scientist(s) John Austin
Date created 2007-08-31
Visualization Personnel Remik Ziemlinski
Files 1280x960 Mpg (140 MB)
1280x960 Mov (167 MB)
640x480 Mpg (65 MB)
640x480 Mov (66 MB)
Flash
HTML5 Video
Png (755 KB)

 

Water Flow


Title Projected percentage changes in runoff, 21st century
Description This is an animation of a multi-model estimate of the expected value of runoff change (relative to the historical period 1900-1970) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The "flickering" of colors back and forth is mainly an artifact of the way the data have been processed--internal variability of the climate system has not entirely been removed. The actual estimate of the signal of changing climate is seen in the gradual shift in colors from light to dark. It should be kept in mind that the future will have both a climate-change signal and internal variability; the latter will be capable of causing large departures from "climatic normal" or expected conditions in any given year.
Model name An ensemble of 12 climate models participating in the 3rd Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
Scientist(s) P.C.D. Milly (USGS) and K.A. Dunne
Date created July 2009
Visualization Personnel P.C.D. Milly (USGS) and K.A. Dunne
Files Animated GIF



Title Water Flow
Description This animation depicts the flow of water through the river system of the United States. Color and width of line indicates volume of flow passing a given point per unit time. The data were obtained from a two-year simulation of land water and energy balances, coupled to a network model of the river system. Because the model was started from a dry initial state, little flow is produced in the first year. Note the production of flow by spring snowmelt in the Rockies and the subsequent downstream flows.
Model name Land Model (LM2)
Scientist(s) Chris Milly (USGS)
Date created April 2005
Visualization Personnel Remik Ziemlinski
Files Mpeg (20 MB)
Flash
HTML5 Video
Png (371 KB)

 

Arctic Sea Ice Changes



Title
Arctic Sea Ice Changes
Description The future of Arctic sea-ice is a concern for various reasons and simulations with GFDL's Coupled Model version 2.1 suggest a decline in sea-ice concentration, especially during the 21st century. Additional information on this topic, including a two page PDF summary, can be found on our Climate Research Highlights: The Shrinking Arctic Ice Cap web page.
Model name GFDL CM2.1
Scientist(s) Michael Winton
Keith Dixon
Date created 2007-01-19
Visualization personnel Remik Ziemlinksi
Files Png: 1920x1080 | 1280x720 | 720x720
Mpeg4: 1920x1080 | 1280x720 | 720x720
Mov: 1920x1080 | 1280x720 | 720x720
Flash
HTML5 Video

 

El Niño Forecasting

Ocean temperature anomalies at the peak of an El Niño event, simulated in a state-of-the-art climate model at GFDL/NOAA. The temperature changes (see figure below) affect ocean ecosystems and global weather patterns, with far-reaching consequences for fisheries, agriculture, and natural disasters. Worldwide losses resulting from the 1997-98 El Niño are estimated at $32-$96 billion.


Temperature changes (red indicates 1°C or more above normal, blue 1°C or more below normal).

Title
Ocean Temperature
Description
Model name
Scientist(s) Anthony Rosati
Andrew Wittenberg
Date created n/a
Visualization personnel n/a
Files Mov (5.5 MB)
Flash
HTML5 Video
Png (549 KB)


Modeled ocean temperature and surface current distribution over the tropical Pacific Ocean region obtained from a GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere model used to predict El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Title
Warm Phase
Description
Model name
Scientist(s) Anthony Rosati
Andrew Wittenberg
Date created n/a
Visualization personnel n/a
Files Mov (5.5 MB)
Gif (105 KB)


Modeled ocean temperature and surface current distribution over the tropical Pacific Ocean region obtained from a GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere model used to predict El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Title
Cold Phase
Description
Model name
Scientist(s) Anthony Rosati
Andrew Wittenberg
Date created n/a
Visualization personnel n/a
Files Mov (5.5 MB)
Gif (108 KB)