GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Cited in AR5

Ch. 2 Observations: Atmosphere and Surface

  • Free, M., D. J. Seidel, J. K. Angell, J. Lanzante, I. Durre, and T. C. Peterson,
    2005: Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC):
    A new data set of large-area anomaly time series. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,
    110.
  • Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological
    cycle to global warming. Journal of Climate, 19, 5686-5699.
  • Knutson, T. R., et al., 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature
    Geoscience, 3, 157-163.
  • Lanzante, J. R., 2009: Comment on “Trends in the temperature and water vapor
    content of the tropical lower stratosphere: Sea surface connection” by Karen
    H. Rosenlof and George C. Reid. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,
    114.
  • Manabe, S., and R. F. Strickler, 1964: Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere
    with a Convective Adjustment. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 21, 361-385.
  • Oort, A. H., and J. J. Yienger, 1996: Observed interannual variability in
    the Hadley circulation and its connection to ENSO. Journal of Climate, 9, 2751-2767.
  • Seidel, D. J., and J. R. Lanzante, 2004: An assessment of three alternatives
    to linear trends for characterizing global atmospheric temperature changes.
    Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 109.
  • Seidel, D. J., N. P. Gillett, J. R. Lanzante, K. P. Shine, and P. W. Thorne,
    2011: Stratospheric temperature trends: our evolving understanding. Wiley Interdisciplinary
    Reviews-Climate Change, 2, 592-616
  • Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of
    the tropical circulation. Journal of Climate, 20, 4316-4340.
  • Vecchi, G. A., and T. R. Knutson, 2008: On estimates of historical north
    Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Journal of Climate, 21, 3580-3600.
  • ??, 2011: Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from
    the HURDAT Database (1878-1965) Using Ship Track Density. Journal of Climate,
    24, 1736-1746.
  • Vecchi, G. A., B. J. Soden, A. T. Wittenberg, I. M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and
    M. J. Harrison, 2006: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation
    due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441, 73-76.

Ch.3 Observations: ocean

  • Griffies, S. M., et al., 2009: Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments
    (COREs). Ocean Modelling, 26, 1-46.
  • Hallberg, R., and A. Gnanadesikan, 2006: The role of eddies in determining
    the structure and response of the wind- driven southern hemisphere overturning:
    Results from the Modeling Eddies in the Southern Ocean (MESO) project. Journal
    of Physical Oceanography, 36, 2232-2252.
  • Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological
    cycle to global warming. Journal of Climate, 19, 5686-5699.
  • Vecchi, G. A., B. J. Soden, A. T. Wittenberg, I. M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and
    M. J. Harrison, 2006: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation
    due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441, 73-76.

Ch. 5: Information from paleoclimatic archives

  • Cook, K. H., and I. M. Held, 1988: Stationary Waves of the Ice Age Climate.
    Journal of Climate, 1, 807-819.
  • Delworth, T. L., and M. E. Mann, 2000: Observed and simulated multidecadal
    variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dynamics, 16, 661-676.
  • Soden, B. J., I. M. Held, R. Colman, K. M. Shell, J. T. Kiehl, and C. A.
    Shields, 2008: Quantifying Climate Feedbacks Using Radiative Kernels. Journal
    of Climate, 21, 3504-3520.
  • Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2005: Simulated tropical response to a substantial
    weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Journal of Climate, 18,
    1853-1860.
  • Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2006: Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
    on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophysical Research Letters,
    33, L17712.

Ch.6 Carbon and other Biogeochemical cycles

  • Deutsch, C., J. L. Sarmiento, D. M. Sigman, N. Gruber, and J. P. Dunne,
    2007: Spatial coupling of nitrogen inputs and losses in the ocean. Nature, 445,
    163-167.
  • Dunne, J. P., et al., 2012a: GFDL’s ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth
    System Models. Part II: Carbon system formation and baseline simulation characteristics.
    Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00150.1.10/12, in press.
  • Dunne, J. P., et al., 2012b: GFDL?s ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth
    System Models Part I: Physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics.
    Journal of Climate, 25, 6646-6665.
  • Fan, S.-M., T. L. Blaine, and J. L. Sarmiento, 1999: Terrestrial carbon
    sink in the Northern Hemisphere estimated from the atmospheric CO2 difference
    between Manna Loa and the South Pole since 1959. Tellus B, 51, 863-870.
  • Gerber, S., L. O. Hedin, M. Oppenheimer, S. W. Pacala, and E. Shevliakova,
    2010: Nitrogen cycling and feedbacks in a global dynamic land model. Global
    Biogeochemical Cycles, 24, GB1001.
  • Gnanadesikan, A., and I. Marinov, 2008: Export is not enough: nutrient cycling
    and carbon sequestration. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 364, 289-294.
  • Gnanadesikan, A., J. L. Sarmiento, and R. D. Slater, 2003: Effects of patchy
    ocean fertilization on atmospheric carbon dioxide and biological production.
    Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 17, 1050
  • . Gnanadesikan, A., J. L. Russell, and F. Zeng, 2007: How does ocean ventilation
    change under global warming? Ocean Science, 3, 43-53.
  • Gnanadesikan, A., J. P. Dunne, and J. John, 2012: Understanding why the
    volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming
    in an Earth System Model. Biogeosciences, 9, 1159-1172.
  • Held, I. M., M. Winton, K. Takahashi, T. Delworth, F. Zeng, and G. K. Vallis,
    2010: Probing the fast and slow components of global warming by returning abruptly
    to preindustrial forcing. Journal of Climate, 23, 2418-2427
  • McNeil, B. I., R. J. Matear, R. M. Key, J. L. Bullister, and J. L. Sarmiento,
    2003: Anthropogenic CO2 uptake by the ocean based on the global chlorofl uorocarbon
    data set. Science, 299, 235-239
  • Sarmiento, J. L., T. M. C. Hughes, R. J. Stouffer, and S. Manabe, 1998:
    Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming.
    Nature, 393, 245-249.
  • Shevliakova, E., et al., 2009: Carbon cycling under 300 years of land use
    change: Importance of the secondary vegetation sink. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,
    23, GB2022.
  • Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5
    and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
    93, 485-498.
  • Toggweiler, J. R., 1999: Variation of atmospheric CO2 by ventilation of
    the ocean’s deepest water. Paleoceanography, 14, 571-588.
  • Toggweiler, J. R., J. L. Russell, and S. R. Carson, 2006: Midlatitude westerlies,
    atmospheric CO2, and climate change during the ice ages. Paleoceanography, 21,
    PA2005.

Ch. 7 Clouds and Aerosol

  • Donner, L. J., et al., 2011: The dynamical core, physical parameterizations,
    and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the
    GFDL global coupled model CM3. Journal of Climate, 24, 3484?3519
  • Ghan, S. J., H. Abdul-Razzak, A. Nenes, Y. Ming, X. Liu, and M. Ovchinnikov,
    2011: Droplet nucleation: Physically- based parameterizations and comparative
    evaluation. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 3, M10001.
  • Ginoux, P., J. M. Prospero, T. E. Gill, N. C. Hsu, and M. Zhao, 2012a: Global-scale
    attribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources and their emission rates
    based on MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products. Reviews of Geophysics, 50, RG3005.
  • Ginoux, P., L. Clarisse, C. Clerbaux, P.-F. Coheur, O. Dubovik, N. C. Hsu,
    and M. Van Damme, 2012b: Mixing of dust and NH3 observed globally over anthropogenic
    dust sources Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12, 7351-7363
  • Golaz, J. C., V. E. Larson, and W. R. Cotton, 2002: A PDF-based model for
    boundary layer clouds. Part I: Method and model description. Journal of the
    Atmospheric Sciences, 59, 3540-3551.
  • Golaz, J. C., M. Salzmann, L. J. Donner, L. W. Horowitz, Y. Ming, and M.
    Zhao, 2011: Sensitivity of the aerosol indirect effect to subgrid variability
    in the cloud parameterization of the GFDL atmosphere general circulation model
    AM3. Journal of Climate, 24, 3145-3160.
  • Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological
    cycle to global warming. Journal of Climate, 19, 5686-5699.
  • Held, I. M., and K. M. Shell, 2012: Using relative humidity as a state variable
    in climate feedback analysis. Journal of Climate, 25, 2578-2582.
  • Hill, S., and Y. Ming, 2012: Nonlinear climate response to regional brightening
    of tropical marine stratocumulus. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L15707.
  • Larson, V. E., and J. C. Golaz, 2005: Using probability density functions
    to derive consistent closure relationships among higher-order moments. Monthly
    Weather Review, 133, 1023-1042.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, and G. Persad, 2010: Two opposing effects of absorbing
    aerosols on global-mean precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L13701.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, P. A. Ginoux, L. W. Horowitz, and L. M. Russell,
    2005: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model investigation
    of the indirect radiative effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol. Journal
    of Geophysical Research, 110, D22206.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, L. J. Donner, V. T. J. Phillips, S. A. Klein, P.
    A. Ginoux, and L. W. Horowitz, 2007b: Modeling the interactions between aerosols
    and liquid water clouds with a self-consistent cloud scheme in a general circulation
    model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64, 1189-1209.
  • Muller, C. J., and I. M. Held, 2012: Detailed investigation of the self-aggregation
    of convection in cloud-resolving simulations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,
    69, 2551-2565.
  • Neelin, J. D., and I. M. Held, 1987: Modeling tropical convergence based
    on the moist static energy budget. Monthly Weather Review, 115, 3-12.
  • Pincus, R., R. Hemler, and S. A. Klein, 2006: Using stochastically generated
    subcolumns to represent cloud structure in a large-scale model. Monthly Weather
    Review, 134, 3644-3656.
  • Seager, R., N. Naik, and G. A. Vecchi, 2010: Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms
    for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming.
    Journal of Climate, 23, 4651-4668.
  • Soden, B. J., and I. M. Held, 2006: An assessment of climate feedbacks in
    coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Journal of Climate, 19, 3354-3360.
  • Soden, B. J., and G. A. Vecchi, 2011: The vertical distribution of cloud
    feedback in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Geophysical Research Letters, 38,
    L12704.
  • Soden, B. J., I. M. Held, R. Colman, K. M. Shell, J. T. Kiehl, and C. A.
    Shields, 2008: Quantifying climate feedbacks using radiative kernels. Journal
    of Climate, 21, 3504-3520.
  • Xie, S.-P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, and A. T. Wittenberg,
    2010: Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall.
    Journal of Climate, 23, 966?986.

Ch. 8 Natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing

  • Bollasina, M. A., Y. Ming, and V. Ramaswamy, 2011: Anthropogenic Aerosols
    and the Weakening of the South Asian Summer Monsoon. Science, 334, 502-505.
  • Findell, K. L., E. Shevliakova, P. C. D. Milly, and R. J. Stouffer, 2007:
    Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Journal of Climate,
    20, 3621-3634.
  • Fiore, A. M., et al., 2009: Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor
    relationships for ozone pollution. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,
    114, D04301.
  • Ginoux, P., D. Garbuzov, and N. C. Hsu, 2010: Identification of anthropogenic
    and natural dust sources using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
    (MODIS) Deep Blue level 2 data. Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres,
    115, D05204.
  • Horowitz, L. W., 2006: Past, present, and future concentrations of tropospheric
    ozone and aerosols: Methodology, ozone evaluation, and sensitivity to aerosol
    wet removal. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 111, D22211.
  • Ming, Y., and V. Ramaswamy, 2012: Nonlocal component of radiative flux perturbation.
    Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L22706.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, and G. Persad, 2010: Two opposing effects of absorbing
    aerosols on global-mean precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L13701.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, and G. Chen, 2011: A Model Investigation of Aerosol-Induced
    Changes in Boreal Winter Extratropical Circulation. Journal of Climate, 24,
    6077-6091.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, L. J. Donner, V. T. J. Phillips, S. A. Klein, P.
    A. Ginoux, and L. W. Horowitz, 2007: Modeling the interactions between aerosols
    and liquid water clouds with a self-consistent cloud scheme in a general circulation
    model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64, 1189-1209.
  • Naik, V., D. L. Mauzerall, L. W. Horowitz, M. D. Schwarzkopf, V. Ramaswamy,
    and M. Oppenheimer, 2007: On the sensitivity of radiative forcing from biomass
    burning aerosols and ozone to emission location. Geophysical Research Letters,
    34, L03818.
  • Paynter, D., and V. Ramaswamy, 2011: An assessment of recent water vapor
    continuum measurements upon longwave and shortwave radiative transfer. Journal
    of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 116, D20302.
  • Persad, G. G., Y. Ming, and V. Ramaswamy, 2012: Tropical Tropospheric-Only
    Responses to Absorbing Aerosols. Journal of Climate, 25, 2471-2480.
  • Randles, C. A., and V. Ramaswamy, 2008: Absorbing aerosols over Asia: A
    Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model sensitivity
    study of model response to aerosol optical depth and aerosol absorption. Journal
    of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 113, D21203.
  • Shindell, D., M. Schulz, Y. Ming, T. Takemura, G. Faluvegi, and V. Ramaswamy,
    2010: Spatial scales of climate response to inhomogeneous radiative forcing.
    Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115, D19110.
  • Stenchikov, G., A. Robock, V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf, K. Hamilton,
    and S. Ramachandran, 2002: Arctic Oscillation response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo
    eruption: Effects of volcanic aerosols and ozone depletion. Journal of Geophysical
    Research-Atmospheres, 107, 4803.
  • Stenchikov, G., T. L. Delworth, V. Ramaswamy, R. J. Stouffer, A. Wittenberg,
    and F. R. Zeng, 2009: Volcanic signals in oceans. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,
    114, D16104.

Chapter 9: Evaluation of climate models

  • Austin, J., and R. J. Wilson, 2006: Ensemble simulations of the decline
    and recovery of stratospheric ozone. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,
    111, D16314.
  • Bender, M. A., T. R. Knutson, R. E. Tuleya, J. J. Sirutis, G. A. Vecchi,
    S. T. Garner, and I. M. Held, 2010: Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming
    on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes. Science, 327, 454-458.
  • Bollasina, M. A., and Y. Ming, 2013: The general circulation model precipitation
    bias over the southwestern equatorial Indian Ocean and its implications for
    simulating the South Asian monsoon. Climate Dynamics, 40, 823-838.
  • Delworth, T. L., et al., 2012: Simulated Climate and Climate Change in the
    GFDL CM2.5 High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model. Journal of Climate, 25, 2755-2781.
  • Delworth, T. L., et al., 2006: GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models.
    Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate, 19,
    643?674.
  • DiNezio, P. N., A. C. Clement, G. A. Vecchi, B. J. Soden, and B. P. Kirtman,
    2009: Climate Response of the Equatorial Pacific to Global Warming. Journal
    of Climate, 22, 4873-4892
  • Donner, L. J., et al., 2011: The Dynamical Core, Physical Parameterizations,
    and Basic Simulation Characteristics of the Atmospheric Component AM3 of the
    GFDL Global Coupled Model CM3. Journal of Climate, 24, 3484- 3519.
  • Dunne, J. P., et al., 2013: GFDL’s ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth
    System Models Part II: Carbon system formulation and baseline simulation characteristics.
    Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00150.1.
  • Dunne, J. P., et al., 2012: GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate-Carbon Earth
    System Models. Part I: Physical Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics.
    Journal of Climate, 25, 6646-6665
  • Fox-Kemper, B., R. Ferrari, and R. Hallberg, 2008: Parameterization of mixed
    layer eddies. Part I: Theory and diagnosis. Journal of Physical Oceanography,
    38, 1145-1165.
  • Gerber, S., L. O. Hedin, M. Oppenheimer, S. W. Pacala, and E. Shevliakova,
    2010: Nitrogen cycling and feedbacks in a global dynamic land model. Global
    Biogeochemical Cycles, 24, Gb1001.
  • Gnanadesikan, A., S. M. Griffies, and B. L. Samuels, 2007: Effects in a
    climate model of slope tapering in neutral physics schemes. Ocean Modelling,
    16, 1-16.
  • Golaz, J.-C., M. Salzmann, L. J. Donner, L. W. Horowitz, Y. Ming, and M.
    Zhao, 2011: Sensitivity of the Aerosol Indirect Effect to Subgrid Variability
    in the Cloud Parameterization of the GFDL Atmosphere General Circulation Model
    AM3. Journal of Climate, 24, 3145-3160.
  • Griffies, S. M., 2009: Elements of MOM4p1. GFDL Ocean Group Tech. Rep. No.
    6. NOAA/GFDL.
  • Griffies, S. M., and R. J. Greatbatch, 2012: Physical processes that impact
    the evolution of global mean sea level in ocean climate models. Ocean Modelling,
    51, 37-72.
  • Griffies, S. M., M. J. Harrison, R. C. Pacanowski, and A. Rosati, 2004:
    A technical guide to MOM4. GFDL Ocean Group Technical Report 337 pp.
  • Griffies, S. M., et al., 2005: Formulation of an ocean model for global
    climate simulations. Ocean Sci., 1, 45-79. Griffies, S. M., et al., 2009: Coordinated
    Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs). Ocean Modelling, 26, 1-46
  • Hallberg, R., and A. Gnanadesikan, 2006: The role of eddies in determining
    the structure and response of the wind- driven southern hemisphere overturning:
    Results from the Modeling Eddies in the Southern Ocean (MESO) project. Journal
    of Physical Oceanography, 36, 2232-2252.
  • Hallberg, R., and A. Adcroft, 2009: Reconciling estimates of the free surface
    height in Lagrangian vertical coordinate ocean models with mode-split time stepping.
    Ocean Modelling, 29, 15-26.
  • Held, I. M., 2005: The gap between simulation and understanding in climate
    modeling. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 1609-1614.
  • Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological
    cycle to global warming. Journal of Climate, 19, 5686-5699.
  • Held, I. M., and K. M. Shell, 2012: Using Relative Humidity as a State Variable
    in Climate Feedback Analysis. Journal of Climate, 25, 2578-2582.
  • Held, I. M., M. Winton, K. Takahashi, T. Delworth, F. R. Zeng, and G. K.
    Vallis, 2010: Probing the Fast and Slow Components of Global Warming by Returning
    Abruptly to Preindustrial Forcing. Journal of Climate, 23, 2418-2427.
  • Klein, S. A., B. J. Soden, and N. C. Lau, 1999: Remote sea surface temperature
    variations during ENSO: Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. Journal
    of Climate, 12, 917-932.
  • Klein, S. A., X. Jiang, J. Boyle, S. Malyshev, and S. Xie, 2006: Diagnosis
    of the summertime warm and dry bias over the U.S. Southern Great Plains in the
    GFDL climate model using a weather forecasting approach. Geophys. Res. Lett.,
    33, L18805.
  • Legg, S., L. Jackson, and R. W. Hallberg, 2008: Eddy-resolving modeling
    of overflows. Eddy resolving ocean models, 177 ed., M. Hecht, and H. Hasumi,
    Eds., American Geophysical Union, 63-82.
  • Legg, S., et al., 2009: Improving Oceanic Overflow Representation in Climate
    Models: The Gravity Current Entrainment Climate Process Team. Bulletin of the
    American Meteorological Society, 90, 657-670.
  • Levy, H., L. W. Horowitz, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Y. Ming, J.-C. Golaz, V. Naik,
    and V. Ramaswamy, 2013: The Roles of Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects in
    Past and Future Climate Change. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50192.
  • Lu, J., G. A. Vecchi, and T. Reichler, 2007: Expansion of the Hadley cell
    under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L06805.
  • Msadek, R., and C. Frankignoul, 2009: Atlantic multidecadal oceanic variability
    and its influence on the atmosphere in a climate model. Climate Dynamics, 33,
    45-62.
  • Msadek, R., W. E. Johns, S. G. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, and
    T. Rosati, 2013: The Atlantic meridional heat transport at 26.5oN and its relationship
    with the MOC in the RAPID-array and GFDL and NCAR coupled models. Journal of
    Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00081.1.
  • Seidel, D. J., N. P. Gillett, J. R. Lanzante, K. P. Shine, and P. W. Thorne,
    2011: Stratospheric temperature trends: Our evolving understanding. Wiley Interdisciplinary
    Reviews: Climate Change, 2, 592-616.
  • Shevliakova, E., et al., 2009: Carbon cycling under 300 years of land use
    change: Importance of the secondary vegetation sink. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,
    23, GB2022
  • Soden, B. J., and I. M. Held, 2006: An assessment of climate feedbacks in
    coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Journal of Climate, 19, 3354-3360.
  • Soden, B. J., I. M. Held, R. Colman, K. M. Shell, J. T. Kiehl, and C. A.
    Shields, 2008: Quantifying climate feedbacks using radiative kernels. Journal
    of Climate, 21, 3504-3520.
  • Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of
    the tropical circulation. Journal of Climate, 20, 4316-4340.
  • Vecchi, G. A., K. L. Swanson, and B. J. Soden, 2008: CLIMATE CHANGE Whither
    Hurricane Activity? Science, 322, 687-689.
  • Vecchi, G. A., B. J. Soden, A. T. Wittenberg, I. M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and
    M. J. Harrison, 2006: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation
    due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 327, 216?-219.
  • Winton, M., 2000: A reformulated three-layer sea ice model. Journal of Atmospheric
    and Oceanic Technology, 17, 525?531.
  • ??, 2011: Do Climate Models Underestimate the Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere
    Sea Ice Cover? Journal of Climate, 24, 3924-3934.
  • Wittenberg, A. T., 2009: Are historical records sufficient to constrain
    ENSO simulations? Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L12702
  • Wittenberg, A. T., A. Rosati, N. C. Lau, and J. J. Ploshay, 2006: GFDL’s
    CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part III: Tropical Pacific Climate and ENSO.
    Journal of Climate, 19, 698-722.
  • Zhang, R., et al., 2013: Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal
    variability? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-12-0331.1.
  • Zhao, M., I. M. Held, and S.-J. Lin, 2012: Some Counterintuitive Dependencies
    of Tropical Cyclone Frequency on Parameters in a GCM. Journal of the Atmospheric
    Sciences, 69, 2272-2283.
  • Zhao, M., I. M. Held, S. J. Lin, and G. A. Vecchi, 2009: Simulations of
    Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global
    Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM. Journal of Climate, 22, 6653- 6678.

Ch. 10: Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional

  • Delworth, T., V. Ramaswamy, and G. Stenchikov, 2005: The impact of aerosols
    on simulated ocean temperature and heat content in the 20th century. Geophysical
    Research Letters, 32, L24709.
  • Delworth, T. L., and M. E. Mann, 2000: Observed and simulated multidecadal
    variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dynamics, 16, 661-676.
  • Free, M., and J. Lanzante, 2009: Effect of volcanic eruptions on the vertical
    temperature profile in radiosonde data and climate models. Journal of Climate,
    22, 2925-2939.
  • Gregory, J. M., R. J. Stouffer, S. C. B. Raper, P. A. Stott, and N. A. Rayner,
    2002: An observationally based estimate of the climate sensitivity. Journal
    of Climate, 15, 3117-3121.
  • Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological
    cycle to global warming. Journal of Climate, 19, 5686-5699.
  • Held, I. M., M. Winton, K. Takahashi, T. Delworth, F. R. Zeng, and G. K.
    Vallis, 2010: Probing the fast and slow components of global warming by returning
    abruptly to preindustrial forcing. Journal of Climate, 23, 2418-2427
  • Knutson, T. R., F. Zeng, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2013: Multi-model assessment
    of regional surface temperature trends. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00567.1.
  • Knutson, T. R., et al., 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature
    Geoscience, 3, 157-163.
  • Lu, J., G. A. Vecchi, and T. Reichler, 2007: Expansion of the Hadley cell
    under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L06805.
  • Mahajan, S., R. Zhang, and T. L. Delworth, 2011: Impact of the Atlantic
    Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on Arctic surface air temperature
    and sea ice variability. Journal of Climate, 24, 6573?6581
  • Manabe, S., and R. T. Wetherald, 1975: The Effects of Doubling the CO2 Concentration
    on the climate of a General Circulation Model. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,
    32, 3?15.
  • Ramaswamy, V., M. D. Schwarzkopf, W. J. Randel, B. D. Santer, B. J. Soden,
    and G. L. Stenchikov, 2006: Anthropogenic and natural influences in the evolution
    of lower stratospheric cooling. Science, 311, 1138-1141
  • Schneider, T., and I. M. Held, 2001: Discriminants of twentieth-century
    changes in earth surface temperatures. Journal of Climate, 14 249-254.
  • Seager, R., N. Naik, and G. A. Vecchi, 2010: Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms
    for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming.
    Journal of Climate, 23, 4651-4668.
  • Seidel, D. J., N. P. Gillett, J. R. Lanzante, K. P. Shine, and P. W. Thorne,
    2011: Stratospheric temperature trends: Our evolving understanding. WIREs Climate
    Change, 2, 592-616.
  • Stenchikov, G., T. L. Delworth, V. Ramaswamy, R. J. Stouffer, A. Wittenberg,
    and F. Zeng, 2009: Volcanic signals in oceans. Journal of Geophysical Research
    Atmospheres, 114, D16104.
  • Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5
    and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
    93, 485-498.
  • Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of
    the tropical circulation. Journal of Climate, 20, 4316-4340.
  • Vecchi, G. A., K. L. Swanson, and B. J. Soden, 2008: Whither hurricane activity.
    Science, 322, 687-689
  • Villarini, G., and G. A. Vecchi, 2012: Twenty-first-century projections
    of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models. Nature Climate Change,
    2, 604?607.
  • ??, 2013: Projected increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity
    from CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate, 26, 3231-3240.
  • Xie, S.-P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, and A. T. Wittenberg,
    2010: Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall.
    Journal of Climate, 23, 966-986.
  • Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2009: A new method for attributing climate
    variations over the Atlantic Hurricane Basin’s main development region. Geophysical
    Research Letters, 36, L06701.
  • Zhang, R., et al., 2012: Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal
    Variability? Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 70, 1135-1144.

Ch. 11 Near-term climate change: projections and predictability

  • Allen, M. R., P. A. Stott, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. Schnur, and T. L. Delworth,
    2000: Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change.
    Nature, 407, 617-620.
  • Bollasina, M. A., Y. Ming, and V. Ramaswamy, 2011: Anthropogenic Aerosols
    and the Weakening of the South Asian Summer Monsoon. Science, doi:10.1126/science.1204994.
  • Delworth, T., and K. Dixon, 2006: Have anthropogenic aerosols delayed a
    greenhouse gas-induced weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation?
    Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2005GL024980, L02606.
  • Delworth, T., V. Ramaswamy, and G. Stenchikov, 2005: The impact of aerosols
    on simulated ocean temperature and heat content in the 20th century. Geophysical
    Research Letters, 32.
  • Delworth, T. L., and F. Zeng, 2008: Simulated impact of altered Southern
    Hemisphere winds on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Geophysical
    Research Letters, 35.
  • Findell, K. L., E. Shevliakova, P. C. D. Milly, and R. J. Stouffer, 2007:
    Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Journal of Climate,
    20, 3621-3634.
  • Fiore, A. M., J. J. West, L. W. Horowitz, V. Naik, and M. D. Schwarzkopf,
    2008: Characterizing the tropospheric ozone response to methane emission controls
    and the benefits to climate and air quality. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D08307.
  • Fiore, A. M., et al., 2009: Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor
    relationships for ozone pollution. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D04301
  • Held, I., and B. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle
    to global warming. Journal of Climate, 5686- 5699.
  • Knutson, T., and S. Manabe, 1995: tTme-mean response over the tropical pacific
    to increased co2 in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Journal of climate, 2181-2199.
  • Knutson, T. R., F. Zeng, and A. T. Wittenberg 2013: Multi-Model Assessment
    of Regional Surface Temperature Trends: CMIP3 vs CMIP5 Historical (20C3M) Runs.
    J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00567.1.
  • Knutson, T. R., et al., 2006: Assessment of Twentieth-Century regional surface
    temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models. J. Climate, 19.
  • Knutson, T. R., et al., 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature
    Geosci, 3, 157-163.
  • Lanzante, J. R., 2005: A cautionary note on the use of error bars. Journal
    of Climate, 18, 3699-3703.
  • Levy, H., L. W. Horowitz, Daniel Schwarzkopf, M. M., G. Y., N. J.-C., and
    V. Ramaswamy, 2013: The Roles of Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects in Past
    and Future Climate Change,. journal Geophysical Research, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50192.
  • Liu, J., D. L. Mauzerall, L. W. Horowitz, P. Ginoux, and A. M. Fiore, 2009:
    Evaluating inter-continental transport of fine aerosols: (1) Methodology, global
    aerosol distribution and optical depth. Atmospheric Environment, 43, 4327-4338.
  • Lu, J., G. Vecchi, and T. Reichler, 2007: Expansion of the Hadley cell under
    global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2006GL028443, L06805.
  • Manabe, S., R. J. Stouffer, M. J. Spelman, and K. Bryan, 1991: Transient
    Responses of a Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric
    Co2 .1. Annual Mean Response. Journal of Climate, 4, 785-818.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, and G. Persad, 2010: Two opposing effects of absorbing
    aerosols on global-mean precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L13701.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, and G. Chen, 2011: A Model Investigation of Aerosol-induced
    Changes in Boreal Winter Extratropical Circulation. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/2011jcli4111.1.
  • Msadek, R., K. Dixon, T. Delworth, and W. Hurlin, 2010: Assessing the predictability
    of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and associated fingerprints.
    Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL044517, L19608.
  • Randles, C. A., and V. Ramaswamy, 2010: Direct and semi-direct impacts of
    absorbing biomass burning aerosol on the climate of southern Africa: a Geophysical
    Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM sensitivity study. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9819-9831.
  • Rasmussen, D. J., A. M. Fiore, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, S. J. McGinnis,
    and M. G. Schultz, 2012: Surface ozone- temperature relationships in the eastern
    US: A monthly climatology for evaluating chemistry-climate models. Atmospheric
    Environment, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.11.021.
  • Soden, B. J., R. T. Wetherald, G. L. Stenchikov, and A. Robock, 2002: Global
    cooling after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo: A test of climate feedback by
    water vapor. Science, 296, 727-730.
  • Stenchikov, G., T. Delworth, V. Ramaswamy, R. Stouffer, A. Wittenberg, and
    F. Zeng, 2009: Volcanic signals in oceans. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,
    doi:ARTN D16104, 10.1029/2008JD011673, -.
  • Stenchikov, G., K. Hamilton, R. Stouffer, A. Robock, V. Ramaswamy, B. Santer,
    and H. Graf, 2006: Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in the
    IPCC AR4 climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres, 111.
  • Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An Overview of Cmip5
    and the Experiment Design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
    93, 485-498.
  • Vecchi, G., and B. Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of the
    tropical circulation. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI4258.1, 4316-4340.
  • Vecchi, G., B. Soden, A. Wittenberg, I. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M. Harrison,
    2006: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic
    forcing. Nature, doi: 10.1038/nature04744, 73-76.
  • Vecchi, G. A., et al., 2012: Technical comment on ?Multiyear prediction
    of monthly mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5oN. Science,
    338, 604.
  • Villarini, G., and G. A. Vecchi, 2012: 21st Century Projections of North
    Atlantic Tropical Storms from CMIP5 Models. Nature Climate Change, doi:Nature
    Climate Change :10:1038/nclimate1530.
  • Villarini, G., and G. A. Vecchi, 2013: Projected Increases in North Atlantic
    Tropical Cyclone Intensity from CMIP5 Models. J. Climate, 26, 3231-3240.
  • Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, M. Zhao, and J. A. Smith, 2011:
    North Atlantic Tropical Storm Frequency Response to Anthropogenic Forcing: Projections
    and Sources of Uncertainty. Journal of Climate, 24, 3224- 3238.
  • West, J. J., A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, and D. L. Mauzerall, 2006: Global
    health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls.
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,
    103, 3988-3993.
  • Xie, S., C. Deser, G. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, and A. Wittenberg, 2010: Global
    Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall. Journal of
    Climate, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1, 966-986.
  • Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2006: Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
    on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophysical Research Letters,
    33, L17712.
  • Zhang, S., A. Rosati, and T. Delworth, 2010a: The Adequacy of Observing
    Systems in Monitoring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and North
    Atlantic Climate. Journal of Climate, 23, 5311-5324.
  • Zhang, S., M. J. Harrison, A. Rosati, and A. A. Wittenberg, 2007a: System
    design and evaluation of coupled ensemble data assimilation for global oceanic
    climate studies. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 3541-3564.

Ch. 12: Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and
irreversibility

  • Bollasina, M. A., Y. Ming, and V. Ramaswamy, 2011: Anthropogenic aerosols
    and the weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Science, 334, 502-505.
  • Bryan, K., F. G. Komro, S. Manabe, and M. J. Spelman, 1982: Transient climate
    response to increasing atmospheric carbon-dioxide. Science, 215, 56-58.
  • Delworth, T. L., et al., 2008: The potential for abrupt change in the Atlantic
    meridional overturning circulation. Abrupt climate change. A report by the U.S.
    climate change science program and the subcommittee on global change research,
    258-359.
  • DiNezio, P. N., A. C. Clement, G. A. Vecchi, B. J. Soden, and B. P. Kirtman,
    2009: Climate response of the equatorial Pacific to global warming. Journal
    of Climate, 22, 4873-4892.
  • Dunne, J. P., R. J. Stouffer, and J. G. John, 2013: Reductions in labour
    capacity from heat stress under climate warming. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1827.
  • Farneti, R., T. Delworth, A. Rosati, S. Griffies, and F. Zeng, 2010: The
    role of mesoscale eddies in the rectification of the Southern Ocean response
    to climate change. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 40, 1539-1557.
  • Held, I., and B. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle
    to global warming. Journal of Climate, 19, 5686-5699.
  • Held, I. M., M. Winton, K. Takahashi, T. Delworth, F. R. Zeng, and G. K.
    Vallis, 2010: Probing the fast and slow components of global warming by returning
    abruptly to preindustrial forcing. Journal of Climate, 23, 2418-2427.
  • Kang, S. M., and I. M. Held, 2012: Tropical precipitation, SSTs and the
    surface energy budget: a zonally symmetric perspective. Climate Dynamics, 38,
    1917-1924.
  • Levy II, H., L. W. Horowitz, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Y. Ming, J.-C. Golaz, V.
    Naik, and V. Ramaswamy, 2013: The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects
    in past and future climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50192.
  • Li, F., J. Austin, and J. Wilson, 2008: The strength of the Brewer-Dobson
    circulation in a changing climate: Coupled chemistry-climate model simulations.
    Journal of Climate, 21, 40-57.
  • Lu, J., G. Vecchi, and T. Reichler, 2007: Expansion of the Hadley cell under
    global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L06805.
  • Manabe, S., and R. Stouffer, 1980: Sensitivity of a global climate model
    to an increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical
    Research, 85, 5529-5554.
  • Manabe, S., and R. T. Wetherald, 1980: Distribution of climate change resulting
    from an increase in CO2 content of the atmosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric
    Sciences, 37, 99-118.
  • Manabe, S., and R. Stouffer, 1994: Multiple-century response of a coupled
    ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon-dioxide. Journal
    of Climate, 7, 5-23.
  • Manabe, S., K. Bryan, and M. J. Spelman, 1990: Transient-response of a global
    ocean atmosphere model to a doubling of atmospheric carbon-dioxide. Journal
    of Physical Oceanography, 20, 722-749.
  • Manabe, S., R. J. Stouffer, M. J. Spelman, and K. Bryan, 1991: Transient
    responses of a coupled ocean atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric
    CO2. Part I: Annual mean response. Journal of Climate, 4, 785-818.
  • Milly, P., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R. Hirsch, Z. Kundzewicz, D. Lettenmaier,
    and R. Stouffer, 2008: Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science,
    319, 573-574.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, and G. Persad, 2010: Two opposing effects of absorbing
    aerosols on global-mean precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L13701
  • Ramaswamy, V., et al., 2001: Radiative forcing of climate change. Climate
    Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third
    Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge
    University Press.
  • Randles, C., and V. Ramaswamy, 2008: Absorbing aerosols over Asia: A Geophysical
    Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model sensitivity study of model
    response to aerosol optical depth and aerosol absorption. Journal of Geophysical
    Research, 113, D21203.
  • Seager, R., and G. A. Vecchi, 2010: Greenhouse warming and the 21st century
    hydroclimate of the southwestern North America. Proceedings of the National
    Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107, 21277-21282.
  • Seager, R., N. Naik, and G. A. Vecchi, 2010: Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms
    for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming.
    Journal of Climate, 23, 4651-4668.
  • Soden, B., I. Held, R. Colman, K. Shell, J. Kiehl, and C. Shields, 2008:
    Quantifying climate feedbacks using radiative kernels. Journal of Climate, 21,
    3504-3520.
  • Soden, B. J., and I. M. Held, 2006: An assessment of climate feedbacks in
    coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Journal of Climate, 19, 3354-3360.
  • Soden, B. J., and G. A. Vecchi, 2011: The vertical distribution of cloud
    feedback in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Geophysical Research Letters, 38,
    L12704.
  • Stouffer, R., 2004: Time scales of climate response. Journal of Climate,
    17, 209-217.
  • Stouffer, R. J., and S. Manabe, 1999: Response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere
    model to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide: Sensitivity to the rate of increase.
    Journal of Climate, 12, 2224-2237.
  • Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of
    the tropical circulation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88,
    1529-1530.
  • Vecchi, G. A., B. J. Soden, A. T. Wittenberg, I. M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and
    M. J. Harrison, 2006: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation
    due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441, 73-76.
  • Wetherald, R., and S. Manabe, 1988: Cloud feedback processes in a General-Circulation
    Model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 45, 1397-1415.
  • Wetherald, R. T., R. J. Stouffer, and K. W. Dixon, 2001: Committed warming
    and its implications for climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 1535-1538.
  • Winton, M., 2006a: Amplified Arctic climate change: What does surface albedo
    feedback have to do with it? Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L03701.
  • ??, 2006b: Does the Arctic sea ice have a tipping point? Geophysical Research
    Letters, 33, L23504.
  • Winton, M., 2008: Sea ice-albedo feedback and nonlinear Arctic climate change.
    Arctic sea ice decline: Observations, projections, mechanisms, and implications,E.
    T. DeWeaver, C. M. Bitz, and L. B. Tremblay, Eds., Amer. Geophys. Union, 111-131.
  • Winton, M., 2011: Do climate models underestimate the sensitivity of Northern
    Hemisphere sea ice cover? Journal of Climate, 24, 3924-3934.
  • Xie, S. P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Y. Teng, and A. T. Wittenberg,
    2010: Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall.
    Journal of Climate, 23, 966-986.
  • Zhang, R., 2010a: Northward intensification of anthropogenically forced
    changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Geophysical
    Research Letters, 37, L24603.

13. Sea level change

  • Delworth, T. L., and T. R. Knutson, 2000: Simulation of early 20th century
    global warming. Science, 287, 2246-2250.
  • Delworth, T. L., V. Ramaswamy, and G. L. Stenchikov, 2005: The impact of
    aerosols on simulated ocean temperature and heat content in the 20th century.
    Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L24709.
  • Fan, Y., I. M. Held, S. J. Lin, and X. and Wang, 2013: Ocean warming effect
    on surface gravity wave climate change for the end of the 21st century. Journal
    of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00410.1.
  • Farneti, R., T. L. Delworth, A. J. Rosati, S. M. Griffies, and F. Zeng,
    2010: The role of mesoscale eddies in the rectification of the Southern Ocean
    response to climate change. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 40, 1539- 1557.
  • Goldberg, D. N., C. M. Little, O. V. Sergienko, A. Gnanadesikan, R. Hallberg,
    and M. Oppenheimer, 2012: Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a
    fully coupled ice-ocean model: 2. Sensitivity to external forcings. Journal
    of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 117.
  • Griffies, S. M., and R. J. Greatbatch, 2012: Physical processes that impact
    the evolution of global mean sea level in ocean climate models. Ocean Modelling,
    51, 37-72
  • Hallberg, R., and A. Gnanadesikan, 2006: The role of eddies in determining
    the structure and response of the wind- driven southern hemisphere overturning:
    Results from the Modeling Eddies in the Southern Ocean (MESO) project. Journal
    of Physical Oceanography, 36, 2232-2252.
  • Hallberg, R., A. Adcroft, J. Dunne, J. Krasting, and R. J. Stouffer, 2012:
    Sensitivity of 21st century global-mean steric sea level rise to ocean model
    formulation. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00506.1.
  • Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological
    cycle to global warming. Journal of Climate, 19, 5686-5699.
  • Held, I. M., M. Winton, K. Takahashi, T. Delworth, F. R. Zeng, and G. K.
    Vallis, 2010: Probing the fast and slow components of global warming by returning
    abruptly to preindustrial forcing. Journal of Climate, 23, 2418- 2427.
  • Legg, S., et al., 2009: Improving oceanic overflow representation in climate
    models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 657-.
  • Lettenmaier, D. P., and P. C. D. Milly, 2009: Land waters and sea level.
    Nature Geoscience, 2, 452-454
  • Milly, P. C. D., A. Cazenave, and M. C. Gennero, 2003: Contribution of climate-driven
    change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise. Proceedings of
    the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 100, 13158-13161.
  • Milly, P. C. D., et al., 2010: Terrestrial water-storage contributions to
    sea-level rise and variability. Understanding Sea- level Rise and Variability,
    J. A. Church, P. L. Woodworth, T. Aarup, and W. S. Wildon, Eds., Wiley- Blackwell,
    226-255.
  • Raper, S. C. B., J. M. Gregory, and R. J. Stouffer, 2002: The role of climate
    sensitivity and ocean heat uptake on AOGCM transient temperature response. Journal
    of Climate, 15, 124-130.
  • Rugenstein, M., M. Winton, R. J. Stouffer, S. M. Griffies, and R. W. Hallberg,
    2013: Northern high latitude heat budget decomposition and transient warming.
    Journal of Climate, 26.
  • Stouffer, R. J., 2004: Time scales of climate response. Journal of Climate,
    17, 209-217.
  • Yin, J. J., M. E. Schlesinger, and R. J. Stouffer, 2009: Model projections
    of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States. Nature
    Geoscience, 2, 262-266.
  • Yin, J. J., S. M. Griffies, and R. J. Stouffer, 2010: Spatial variability
    of sea level rise in twenty-first century projections. Journal of Climate, 23,
    4585-4607.
  • Yin, J. J., J. T. Overpeck, S. M. Griffies, A. X. Hu, J. L. Russell, and
    R. J. Stouffer, 2011: Different magnitudes of projected subsurface ocean warming
    around Greenland and Antarctica. Nature Geoscience, 4, 524-528.

Ch.14 Climate phenomena and their relevance for regional climate change

  • Bender, M. A., T. R. Knutson, R. E. Tuleya, J. J. Sirutis, G. A. Vecchi,
    S. T. Garner, and I. M. Held, 2010: Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming
    on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science, 327, 454-458
  • Biasutti, M., I. Held, A. Sobel, and A. Giannini, 2008: SST forcings and
    Sahel rainfall variability in simulations of the twentieth and twenty-first
    centuries. Journal of Climate, 21, 3471-3486
  • Bollasina, M., and Y. Ming, 2013: The general circulation model precipitation
    bias over the southwestern equatorial Indian Ocean and its implications for
    simulating the South Asian monsoon. Climate Dynamics, 40, 823-838.
  • Bollasina, M. A., Y. Ming, and V. Ramaswamy, 2011: Anthropogenic aerosols
    and the weakening of the south Asian summer monsoon. Science, 334, 502-505.
  • Chen, G., I. M. Held, and W. A. Robinson, 2007: Sensitivity of the latitude
    of the surface westerlies to surface friction. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,
    64, 2899-2915.
  • DiNezio, P. N., A. C. Clement, G. A. Vecchi, B. J. Soden, and B. P. Kirtman,
    2009: Climate Response of the Equatorial Pacific to Global Warming. Journal
    of Climate, 22, 4873-4892.
  • Fedorov, A. V., and S. G. Philander, 2000: Is El Nino changing? Science,
    288, 1997-2002.
  • Frierson, D. M. W., I. M. Held, and P. Zurita-Gotor, 2007: A gray-radiation
    aquaplanet moist GCM. Part II: Energy transports in altered climates. Journal
    of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64, 1680-1693.
  • Gerber, E. P., and G. K. Vallis, 2007: Eddy-zonal flow interactions and
    the persistence of the zonal index. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64,
    3296-3311.
  • Giannini, A., M. Biasutti, I. Held, and A. Sobel, 2008: A global perspective
    on African climate. Climatic Change, 90, 359-383.
  • Held, I., and M. Zhao, 2011: The Response of Tropical Cyclone Statistics
    to an Increase in CO2 with Fixed Sea Surface Temperatures. Journal of Climate,
    24, 5353-5364.
  • Held, I., T. Delworth, J. Lu, K. Findell, and T. Knutson, 2005: Simulation
    of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries. Proceedings of the National
    Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 17891-17896.
  • Held, I. M., 1993: Large-scale dynamics and global warming. Bulletin of
    the American Meteorological Society, 74, 228- 241.
  • Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological
    cycle to global warming. Journal of Climate, 19, 5686?5699.
  • Klein, S. A., B. J. Soden, and N.-C. Lau, 1999: Remote sea surface temperature
    variations during ENSO: Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. Journal
    of Climate, 12, 917-932.
  • Knutson, T. R., and R. E. Tuleya, 2004: Impact of CO2-Induced Warming on
    Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of
    Climate Model and Convective Parameterization. Journal of Climate, 17, 3477-3495.
  • Knutson, T. R., et al., 2006: Assessment of twentieth-century regional surface
    temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models. Journal of Climate, 19,
    1624-1651.
  • Knutson, T. R., et al., 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature
    Geoscience, 3, 157-163.
  • Knutson, T. R., et al., 2013: Dynamical downscaling projections of 21st
    century Atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-based scenarios.
    Journal of Climate, in press.
  • Lau, N.-C., and M. J. Nath, 2012: A model study of heat waves over North
    America: Meteorological aspects and projections for the 21st Century. Journal
    of Climate, 25, 4761-4784.
  • Lee, T.-C., T. R. Knutson, H. Kamahori, and M. Ying, 2012: Impacts of climate
    change on tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin. Part I: Past
    observations. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 1, 213-230.
  • Li, T., M. Kwon, M. Zhao, J. Kug, J. Luo, and W. Yu, 2010b: Global warming
    shifts Pacific tropical cyclone location. Geophysical Research Letters, 37.
  • Li, Y., and N. Lau, 2012: Impact of ENSO on the atmospheric variability
    over the north Atlantic in late winter-Role of transient eddies. Journal of
    Climate, 25, 320-342.
  • Lu, J., G. A. Vecchi, and T. Reichler, 2007: Expansion of the Hadley cell
    under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 34.
  • Mahajan, S., R. Zhang, and T. L. Delworth, 2011: Impact of the Atlantic
    meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on Arctic surface air temperature
    and sea ice variability. Journal of Climate, 24, 6573-6581.
  • Seager, R., and G. Vecchi, 2010: Greenhouse warming and the 21st century
    hydroclimate of southwestern North America. Proceedings of the National Academy
    of Sciences, 107, 21277-2128
  • Vecchi, G., and A. Wittenberg, 2010: El Nino and our future climate: where
    do we stand? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change, 1, 260-270.
  • Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007a: Global warming and the weakening
    of the tropical circulation. Journal of Climate, 20, 4316-4340.
  • Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007b: Increased tropical Atlantic wind
    shear in model projections of global warming. Geophysical Research Letters,
    34, L08702.
  • Vecchi, G. A., B. J. Soden, A. T. Wittenberg, I. M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and
    M. J. Harrison, 2006: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation
    due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441, 73-76.
  • Villarini, G., and G. A. Vecchi, 2012: Twenty-first-century projections
    of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models. Nature Climate Change,
    2, 604-607.
  • Wittenberg, A., 2004: Extended wind stress analyses for ENSO. Journal of
    Climate, 17, 2526-2540.
  • Wittenberg, A. T., 2009: Are historical records sufficient to constrain
    ENSO simulations? Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L12702.
  • Xie, S. P., and S. G. H. Philander, 1994: A coupled ocean-atmosphere model
    of relevance to the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific. Tellus Series a-Dynamic Meteorology
    and Oceanography, 46, 340-350.
  • Xie, S. P. D., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, and A. T. Wittenberg,
    2010b: Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall.
    Journal of Climate, 23, 966-986.
  • Yin, L., R. Fu, E. Shevliakova, and R. Dickinson, 2012: How well can CMIP5
    simulate precipitation and its controlling processes over tropical South America?
    Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1582-y.
  • Ying, M., T. R. Knutson, H. Kamahori, and T.-C. Lee, 2012: Impacts of climate
    change on tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin. Part II: Late
    twenty-first century projections. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 1, 231-241.
  • Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2006: Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
    on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophysical Research Letters,
    33, L17712.
  • Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2009: A new method for attributing climate
    variations over the Atlantic Hurricane Basin?s main development region. Geophysical
    Research Letters, 36, L06701.
  • Zhang, R., et al., 2013b: Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal
    variability? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70, 1135-1144.
  • Zhao, M., and I. Held, 2012: TC-permitting GCM simulations of hurricane
    frequency response to sea surface temperature anomalies projected for the late
    twenty-first century. Journal of Climate, 25, 2995-3009.
  • Zhao, M., I. M. Held, S. J. Lin, and G. A. Vecchi, 2009: Simulations of
    global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global
    warming using a 50-km resolution GCM. Journal of Climate, 22, 6653-6678