NOAA GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryGFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Most Recent GFDL Publications

August 2025 - Present

  1. Clark, Spencer K., Oliver Watt-Meyer, Anna Kwa, Jeremy McGibbon, Brian Henn, W Andre Perkins, Elynn Wu, Lucas Harris, and Christopher S Bretherton, December 2025: ACE2-SOM: Coupling an ML atmospheric emulator to a slab ocean and learning the sensitivity of climate to changed CO2. JGR Machine Learning and Computation, 2(4), doi:10.1029/2024JH000575.
  2. DelSole, T, Michael K Tippett, and Nathaniel C Johnson, November 2025: Diagnosing errors in climate forecast models using forced autoregressive models. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(11), doi:10.1029/2024MS004926.
  3. Li, Longlei, Natalie M. Mahowald, Vincenzo Obiso, Jasper F. Kok, Ron L. Miller, Xiaohong Liu, Maria Gonçalves Ageitos, Carlos Pérez Garcia-Pando, Danny M Leung, Ziming Ke, Philip G Brodrick, Roger N Clark, Paola Formenti, Claudia Di Biagio, Paul Ginoux, Gregory S Okin, Bo Zhou, David R. Thompson, and Robert O. Green, November 2025: Dust direct radiative effect including large particles and component minerals. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(22), doi:10.1029/2025GL119383.
  4. Steinberg, Jacob M., Elizabeth Yankovsky, Sylvia T Cole, and Laure Zanna, November 2025: A landscape of mesoscale eddy vertical structure: The influence of bathymetric slope and roughness on kinetic energy. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 55(11), doi:10.1175/JPO-D-25-0044.11987-2004.
  5. Chen, Jie, Kun Gao, Lucas Harris, and Timothy Marchok, October 2025: Do tropical cyclone outer size forecasts improve simultaneously with intensity forecasts? Geophysical Research Letters, 52(20), doi:10.1029/2025GL115875.
  6. Coats, Sloan, Philip R Thompson, Christopher G Piecuch, John Fasullo, Benjamin D Hamlington, Kristopher B Karnauskas, R Steven Nerem, Angelica R Rodriguez, Jacob M Steinberg, and Julius J M Busecke, October 2025: Understanding the role for internal variability in driving past and future ocean dynamic sea level trends in CMIP6 simulations. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0336.15685-5699.
  7. Dunne, John P., Helene T Hewitt, Julie M Arblaster, Frédéric Bonou, Olivier Boucher, Tereza Cavazos, Beth Dingley, Paul J Durack, Birgit Hassler, Martin Juckes, Tomoki Miyakawa, Matt Mizielinski, and Vaishali Naik, et al., October 2025: An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(19), doi:10.5194/gmd-18-6671-20256671-6700.
  8. Griffies, Stephen M., Alistair Adcroft, Rebecca L Beadling, Mitchell Bushuk, Chiung-Yin Chang, Henri F Drake, Raphael Dussin, Robert Hallberg, William J Hurlin, Hermant Khatri, John P Krasting, Matthew Lobo, Graeme A MacGilchrist, Brandon G Reichl, Aakash Sane, Olga V Sergienko, Maike Sonnewald, Jacob M Steinberg, Jan-Erik Tesdal, Matthew Thomas, Katherine Turner, Marshall L Ward, Michael Winton, Niki Zadeh, Laure Zanna, Rong Zhang, Wenda Zhang, and Ming Zhao, October 2025: The GFDL-CM4X model hierarchy, Part I: Model description and thermal properties. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(10), doi:10.1029/2024MS004861.
  9. Griffies, Stephen M., Alistair Adcroft, Rebecca L Beadling, Mitchell Bushuk, Chiung-Yin Chang, Henri F Drake, Raphael Dussin, Robert Hallberg, William J Hurlin, Hermant Khatri, John P Krasting, Matthew Lobo, Graeme A MacGilchrist, Brandon G Reichl, Aakash Sane, Olga V Sergienko, Maike Sonnewald, Jacob M Steinberg, Jan-Erik Tesdal, Matthew Thomas, Katherine Turner, Marshall L Ward, Michael Winton, Niki Zadeh, Laure Zanna, Rong Zhang, Wenda Zhang, and Ming Zhao, October 2025: The GFDL-CM4X climate model hierarchy, Part II: Case studies. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(10), doi:10.1029/2024MS004862.
  10. Hossan, Alamgir, Andreas Colliander, Baptiste Vandecrux, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Joel Harper, Shawn Marshall, and Julie Z Miller, October 2025: Retrieval and validation of total seasonal liquid water amounts in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet using L-band radiometry. The Cryosphere, 19(10), doi:10.5194/tc-19-4237-20254237-4258.
  11. Hou, Yurong, Nathaniel C Johnson, Changhyun Yoo, Ya Wang, Weijun Sun, Kai Man, and Xichen Li, October 2025: Relative effect of Indian Ocean in the Indo-Pacific/North American teleconnection. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0676.15577-5593.
  12. Houriez, Luc, Eric Larour, Lambert Caron, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, et al., October 2025: Reinforced ridges in Thwaites Glacier yield insights into resolution requirements for coupled ice sheet and solid Earth models. The Cryosphere, 19(10), doi:10.5194/tc-19-4355-20254355-4372.
  13. Park, Chanil, Yi Ming, Wenhao Dong, Yi Deng, and Zhenyu You, October 2025: Precipitation and lifecycle characteristics of US mesoscale convective systems simulated in a high-resolution GFDL AM4. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0504.15901-5922.
  14. Paynter, David J., Jing Feng, Raymond Menzel, and Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, October 2025: The longwave spectral signature of the hemispheric asymmetry in global warming. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0017.15725-5741.
  15. Qiu, Minghao, Jessica Li, Carlos F Gould, Renzhi Jing, Makoto Kelp, Marissa Childs, Jeff Wen, Yuanyu Xie, Meiyun Lin, Mathew V Kiang, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah S Diffenbaugh, and Marshall Burke, October 2025: Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the US under climate change. Nature, doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09611-w.
  16. Toggweiler, J R., and Weimin Si, October 2025: A new role for the AMOC during the Ice Ages. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 40(10), doi:10.1029/2024PA004973.
  17. Turner, Katherine, John P Krasting, Joellen L Russell, and Ronald J Stouffer, October 2025: Uncovering the seasonality of storm-driven Southern Ocean heat and carbon uptake. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0642.15615-5632.
  18. Deike, Luc, Xiaohui Zhou, Paridhi Rustogi, Rachel H R Stanley, Brandon G Reichl, Seth M Bushinsky, and Laure Resplandy, September 2025: A universal wind–wave–bubble formulation for air–sea gas exchange and its impact on oxygen fluxes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 122(38), doi:10.1073/pnas.2419319122.
  19. Fan, Chongxing, David J Paynter, Ryan J Kramer, and Pu Lin, September 2025: Sensitivity of Earth's radiation budget to lower boundary condition data sets in historical climate simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(17), doi:10.1029/2025GL115914.
  20. Fan, Songmiao, September 2025: Linking interannual variations of California precipitation and Arctic sea ice through circulation patterns. Environmental Research Communications, 7(9), doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ae0278.
  21. Felikson, Denis, David R Rounce, John Fasullo, Angelica R Rodriguez, Surendra Adhikari, Brett Buzzanga, Sönke Dangendorf, Robert E Kopp, Richard B Lammers, J T Reager, Doug Brinkerhoff, Beáta Csathó, Manuela Girotto, Benjamin D Hamlington, Erik R Ivins, Praveen Kumar, Eric Larour, R Steven Nerem, Sophie Nowicki, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Jan-Erik Tesdal, and Matthew Weathers, et al., September 2025: Progress and future directions in constraining uncertainties in sea-level projections using observations. Nature Climate Change, 15, doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02437-4.
  22. Han, Bin, Linjiong Zhou, Lucas Harris, and Kai-Yuan Cheng, September 2025: Evaluating snowfall forecasts over the midwestern and eastern United States in the GFDL C-SHiELD model. Weather and Forecasting, 40(9), doi:10.1175/WAF-D-24-0235.11711-1728.
  23. Hirose, Lynn A., David J Paynter, Raymond Menzel, and V Ramaswamy, September 2025: Latitudinal differences of changes in Northern Hemisphere clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation over the past 4 decades (1979–2021). Environmental Research Letters, 20(10), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae0500.
  24. Lanzante, John R., Keith W Dixon, and Dennis Adams-Smith, September 2025: Variance distortion via indirect downscaling of daily minimum temperature from diurnal temperature range. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 64(9), doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-25-0009.11093-1104.
  25. Liao, Enhui, Laure Resplandy, Fan Yang, Yangyang Zhao, Sam J Ditkovsky, Manon Malsang, Jenna Pearson, Andrew C Ross, Robert Hallberg, and Charles A Stock, September 2025: A high-resolution physical-biogeochemical model for marine resource applications in the Northern Indian Ocean (MOM6-COBALT-IND12 v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 18(18), doi:10.5194/gmd-18-6553-2025.
  26. Lou, Jiale, Youngji Joh, and Thomas L Delworth, September 2025: Identifying common precursors of decadal vapor pressure deficit variability in the southwestern United States. Journal of Climate, 38(17), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0296.14553–4572.
  27. Mouallem, Joseph, Kun Gao, Brandon G Reichl, Lauren Chilutti, Lucas Harris, Rusty Benson, Niki Zadeh, Jing Chen, Jan-Huey Chen, and Cheng Zhang, September 2025: Development of a high-resolution coupled SHiELD-MOM6 model – Part 1: Model overview, coupling technique, and validation in a regional setup. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(18), doi:10.5194/gmd-18-6461-2025.
  28. Mouallem, Joseph, Weiye Yao, Lucas Harris, Shian-Jiann Lin, and Xi Chen, September 2025: A minimal, adiabatic example of sudden stratospheric warming. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(9), doi:10.1029/2024MS004760.
  29. Park, Chanil, Yi Ming, Yi Deng, and Wenhao Dong, September 2025: Process-based quantification of synoptic forced uplift for springtime MCS initiation over the U.S. Great Plains. JGR Atmospheres, 130(17), doi:10.1029/2025JD044460.
  30. Sanderson, Benjamin, Victor Brovkin, Rosie A Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Christopher Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles D Koven, Hongmei Li, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew H MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Lori T Sentman, Isla Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman J Steinert, Abigail L S Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn, September 2025: flat10MIP: An emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(17), doi:10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025.
  31. Song, Qianqian, and Paul Ginoux, September 2025: The contribution of ephemeral lakes to global dust cycle and direct radiative effect. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(17), doi:10.1029/2025GL116689.
  32. Zavadoff, Breanna L., Kai-Yuan Cheng, Hosmay Lopez, Dongmin Kim, Robert West, Kun Gao, Jan-Huey Chen, and Lucas Harris, September 2025: Western US subseasonal atmospheric river prediction in the global-nested GFDL SHiELD model. JGR Atmospheres, 130(17), doi:10.1029/2025JD043896.
  33. Choi, Hwa-Jin, Jong-Yeon Park, Charles A Stock, and Hyung-Gyu Lim, August 2025: Extended predictability of metabolic constraints on fish habitat. Communications Earth and Environment, 6, 617, doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02600-x.
  34. Collins, William J., Fiona M O'Connor, Rachael E Byrom, Øivind Hodnebrog, Patrick Jöckel, Mariano Mertens, Gunnar Myhre, Matthais Nützel, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild Bieltvedt-Skeie, Laura Stecher, Larry W Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Gregory Faluvegi, Ulas Im, Lee T Murray, Drew Shindell, Kostas Tsigaridis, N Luke Abraham, and James Keeble, August 2025: Climate forcing due to future ozone changes: an intercomparison of metrics and methods. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 25(16), doi:10.5194/acp-25-9031-20259031–9060.
  35. DeSouza-Machado, Sergio, L Larrabee Strow, and Ryan J Kramer, August 2025: Geophysical trends inferred from 20 years of AIRS infrared global observations. JGR Atmospheres, 130(15), doi:10.1029/2025JD043501.
  36. Drenkard, Elizabeth J., Charles A Stock, Andrew C Ross, Yi-Cheng Teng, Theresa J Cordero, Wei Cheng, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique N Curchitser, Raphael Dussin, Robert Hallberg, Claudine Hauri, Katherine Hedstrom, Albert Hermann, Michael G Jacox, Kelly A Kearney, Rémi Pagès, Darren J Pilcher, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Vivek Seelanki, and Niki Zadeh, August 2025: A regional physical–biogeochemical ocean model for marine resource applications in the Northeast Pacific (MOM6-COBALT-NEP10k v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 18(16), doi:10.5194/gmd-18-5245-20255245–5290.
  37. Durack, Paul J., Vaishali Naik, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Briony Turner, Carlo Buontempo, Anca Brookshaw, Christopher Goddard, Claire MacIntosh, Helene T Hewitt, and John P Dunne, August 2025: Earth system forcing for CMIP7 and beyond. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 106(8), doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0119.1E1580–E1588.
  38. Feng, Jing, David J Paynter, Nicole Feldl, Zhihong Tan, and Pu Lin, August 2025: The efficiency of water vapor on top-of-atmosphere radiation. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(16), doi:10.1029/2025GL115210.
  39. Gomez, James, Robert J Allen, Larry W Horowitz, Steven T Turnock, Rosie A Fisher, Olivia E Clifton, B K Mignone, Elena Shevliakova, and Sergey Malyshev, August 2025: Climate effects of a future net forestation scenario in CMIP6 models. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8, 297, doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01127-4.
  40. Gu, Qinxue, Liwei Jia, Liping Zhang, Thomas L Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Nathaniel C Johnson, Feiyu Lu, Colleen McHugh, and William F Cooke, August 2025: Bridging large-scale and coastal variability to improve seasonal sea level predictions along the U.S. and Canadian West Coast. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8, 295, doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01182-x.
  41. Kalashnikov, Dmitri A., John T Abatzoglou, Frances V Davenport, Zachary M Labe, Paul C Loikith, Danielle Touma, and Deepti Singh, August 2025: Projections of lightning-ignited wildfire risk in the western United States. Earth's Future, 13(8), doi:10.1029/2025EF006108.
  42. Liu, Ping, Ming Zhao, Stephen T Garner, and Allan Cruz-Perez, August 2025: Impact of mean-state biases on Northern Hemisphere winter blocking in GFDL AM4 and CM4. Journal of Climate, 38(15), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0390.13609-3621.
  43. Naik, Vaishali, Paul J Durack, Zebedee Nicholls, Carlo Buontempo, John P Dunne, Helene T Hewitt, Claire MacIntosh, and Eleanor O'Rourke, August 2025: Climate models need more frequent releases of input data — here’s how to do it. Nature, 644, doi:10.1038/d41586-025-02642-3874-875.
  44. Pouyaei, Arman, Paul Ginoux, Vaishali Naik, Jing Feng, Larry W Horowitz, and Fabien Paulot, August 2025: ENSO-driven variability in ozone sources and its impact on tropospheric ozone radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(15), doi:10.1029/2025GL115898.
  45. Sweeney, Aodhan, Qiang Fu, Susan Solomon, Stephen Po-Chedley, William J Randel, Andrea Steiner, Pu Lin, Thomas Birner, Sean Davis, and Peidong Wang, August 2025: Recent warming of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical lower stratosphere and Antarctic ozone healing. AGU Advances, 6(4), doi:10.1029/2025AV001737.
  46. Wall, Casey J., David J Paynter, Yi Qin, Matvey Debolskiy, Margaret L Duffy, Takuro Michibata, Brandon M Duran, Nicholas J Lutsko, Po-Lun Ma, Brian Medeiros, Trude Storelvmo, and Ming Zhao, August 2025: Decomposing cloud radiative feedbacks by cloud-top phase. Journal of Climate, 38(16), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0538.14023-4043.
  47. Xu, Weixuan Rosa, Keith W Dixon, Nicole Zenes, and Dennis Adams-Smith, August 2025: Sometimes missing the heat: The risk of underestimating extreme heat days with daily maximum heat index approximation. International Journal of Biometeorology, doi:10.1007/s00484-025-03001-7.
  48. Zhang, Gan, Megha Rao, Janni Yuval, and Ming Zhao, August 2025: Advancing seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity with a hybrid AI-physics climate model. Environmental Research Letters, 20(9), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adf864.
  49. Zilberman, Nathalie, William Llovel, Jacob M Steinberg, Benoit Meyssignac, Michaël Ablain, and R Fraudeau, August 2025: Deep ocean steric sea level change in the subtropical northwest Atlantic Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(16), doi:10.1029/2024GL114158.