NOAA GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryGFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Most Recent GFDL Publications

August 2026 - Present

  1. Chang, Chuan-Chieh, L Ruby Leung, Sandro W Lubis, Ziming Chen, Karthik Balaguru, Samson Hagos, Ming Zhao, Kohei Yoshida, Hiroyuki Murakami, and Hsin-Chien Liang, November 2026: Future changes in North Atlantic tropical cyclone intraseasonal variability associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 39(21), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-26-0193.16281-6302.
  2. Valencic, Natasha, A Mihas, M J Lyons, B A Sheehan, K R Sutherland, J J Vargas, W B Hawley, Linda Pan, and Jerry X Mitrovica, November 2026: Length-of-day changes driven by artificial water impoundment post-1835. Geophysical Journal International, 247(2), doi:10.1093/gji/ggag336.
  3. Koul, Vimal, Andrew C Ross, Charles A Stock, Liping Zhang, Andrew T Wittenberg, and Thomas L Delworth, October 2026: Decadal biogeochemical predictions for the changing bottom marine environment of the Gulf of Maine. Ocean Science, 22(5), doi:10.5194/os-22-3017-20263017-3036.
  4. Steinberg, Jacob M., John P Krasting, and Andrew C Ross, October 2026: A dynamical downscaling approach for the improved representation of sub-annual coastal sea level variability: the importance of shelf and slope ocean dynamics. Ocean Science, 22(5), doi:10.5194/os-22-3479-20263479–3497.
  5. Steinberg, Jacob M., Stephen M Griffies, and Christopher G Piecuch, October 2026: Steric-setup effects on US East Coast sea-level change. Geophysical Research Letters, 53(19), doi:10.1029/2026GL124322.
  6. Zavadoff, Breanna L., Robert West, Hosmay Lopez, Kun Gao, and Lucas Harris, October 2026: How predictable was the extreme precipitation preceding the May 2019 Arkansas River floods? Geophysical Research Letters, 53(19), doi:10.1029/2026GL125408.
  7. Beaulieu, Claudie, Adelicia Johnson, Rebecca Killick, John R Lanzante, and Thomas R Knutson, September 2026: Space-time signatures of surface warming accelerations since 1970. Nature Communications, 17, 9742, doi:10.1038/s41467-026-77514-z.
  8. Ding, Xiuyuan, Baoqiang Xiang, Gang Chen, and Liping Wang, September 2026: Stratospheric wave predictability enhances surface forecasts over North America. Science Advances, 12(38), doi:10.1126/sciadv.aee4171.
  9. Fan, Songmiao, and Judah Cohen, September 2026: Possible mechanisms linking North American cold waves to Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover interannual variations. Meteorology, 5(3), 28, doi:10.3390/meteorology5030028.
  10. Lin, Pu, M Joan Alexander, Laura Holt, Martina Bramberger, Lan Luan, Uriel Ramirez, Baoqiang Xiang, David J Paynter, Ming Zhao, Zhihong Tan, Huan Guo, Mi Kyung Lee, and Vaishali Naik, September 2026: Toward a more physical representation of convective gravity waves in GFDL's GCM. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 18(9), doi:10.1029/2025MS005355.
  11. Mouallem, Joseph, Sergey Malyshev, Zhihong Tan, Elena Shevliakova, Kun Gao, Lucas Harris, Rusty Benson, William F Cooke, Niki Zadeh, and Lauren Chilutti, September 2026: Development of a high-resolution coupled SHiELD-MOM6-LM4 model – Part 2: Model overview, coupling technique, and evaluation of hydrological extremes during Hurricane Helene. Geoscientific Model Development, 19(17), doi:10.5194/gmd-19-8427-20268427-8446.
  12. Otosaka, Inès N., Andrew Shepherd, Charles Amory, Martin Horwath, Erik R Ivins, Michalea D King, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J Payne, Eric Rignot, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, et al., September 2026: Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from the 1970s to 2023. Scientific Data, 13, 1301, doi:10.1038/s41597-026-08088-0.
  13. Polcher, Jan, Julie Collignan, Juan Pablo Sierra Perez, Gabriele Arduini, Sophie Bastin, Martin Best, Aaron Boone, Manel Bravo, Francesca Covella, Jasper M C Denissen, Cenlin He, Simon Munier, Marc Prange, and Elena Shevliakova, September 2026: A framework to evaluate and identify development requirements for land-surface models at km-scale resolution: Application to a semi-arid and mountainous region. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 152(779), doi:10.1002/qj.70229.
  14. Schwartz, Craig S., Ryan A Sobash, Lucas Harris, David A Ahijevych, Kai-Yuan Cheng, Matthew J Morin, Linjiong Zhou, and Adam J Clark, September 2026: Evaluation of severe weather forecasts from real-time medium-range convection-allowing ensembles over the conterminous United States. Weather and Forecasting, 41(9), doi:10.1175/WAF-D-25-0181.11849-1873.
  15. Sheu, Alan D., Jessica Y Luo, Kevin M Archibald, and Holly V Moeller, September 2026: Mixo-COBALT: Incorporating plastic mixotrophy into a coupled biogeochemical ocean model in the Sargasso Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 131(9), doi:10.1029/2026JG009780.
  16. Shrestha, Sisam, David J Paynter, Ryan J Kramer, and Haozhe He, September 2026: Role of shortwave feedback in non-linear response to CO2 forcing in GFDL CM4.0. Geophysical Research Letters, 53(17), doi:10.1029/2026GL122888.
  17. Taylor, Graham P., Keith W Dixon, Liqiang Sun, Nicole Zenes, Samantha H Hartke, Flavio Lehner, Andrew J Newman, Ethan D Gutmann, and Rachel McCrary, September 2026: How observation-based data influence uncertainty in local climate projections. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 65(9), doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-25-0146.11487-1505.
  18. Wang, Cindy, Leo J Donner, and Naser G A Mahfouz, September 2026: Wind-driven circulation feedbacks offset tropical geoengineered sea salt emissions. JGR Atmospheres, 131(17), doi:10.1029/2026JD047411.
  19. Yang, Mingshi, Zhuo Wang, Lucas Harris, and Kai-Yuan Cheng, September 2026: Characteristics of extratropical cyclones under uniform SST warming and increased CO2 forcing in a global storm-resolving model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 18(9), doi:10.1029/2025MS005728.
  20. Zhang, Liping, Hiroyuki Murakami, Thomas L Delworth, Vimal Koul, Andrew C Ross, Charles A Stock, Xiaosong Yang, Jaeyeon Lee, and Andrew T Wittenberg, September 2026: Multiyear predictability of flood frequency along the U.S. Southeast Coast from Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability. Communications Earth and Environment, 7, 771, doi:10.1038/s43247-026-03747-x.
  21. Bushuk, Mitchell, David B Bonan, Stephen M Griffies, William Gregory, Yongfei Zhang, William J Hurlin, Yan-Ting Chen, Thomas Rackow, and Helge F Goessling, August 2026: Historical and projected Antarctic sea ice trends across high-resolution coupled model hierarchies. Geophysical Research Letters, 53(16), doi:10.1029/2026GL124043.
  22. Cordero, Theresa J., Frank O Bryan, Julie L McClean, Sarah T Gille, and Gustavo Marques, August 2026: A glacial fjord box model: Derivation and representation of glacially modified water. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 18(8), doi:10.1029/2024MS004794.
  23. Coulson, Sophie, Andrew Lloyd, Xiyuan Bao, Jerry X Mitrovica, Sönke Dangendorf, Linda Pan, Natasha Valencic, Mark E Tamisiea, David Al-Attar, and Daniel Heathcotte, August 2026: Inverting sea surface height data yields Greenland ice mass changes (1993–2019): A proof of concept. Geophysical Journal International, 246(2), doi:10.1093/gji/ggag187.
  24. Dugenne, Mathilde, Marco Corrales-Ugalde, Jessica Y Luo, Lars Stemmann, Jean-Olivier Irisson, Fabien Lombard, Todd D O'Brien, and Charles A Stock, et al., August 2026: Key link between iron and the size structure of three major mesoplanktonic groups in the upper ocean. Nature Communications, 17, 8645, doi:10.1038/s41467-026-75355-4.
  25. Dukhovskoy, Dmitry S., Theresa J Cordero, Katherine Hedstrom, Michael A Alexander, Michael G Jacox, Robert Hallberg, Matthew J Harrison, and Jessie Liu, August 2026: Design and implementation of a Newtonian relaxation scheme in the NOAA GFDL Sea Ice Model (SIS2). Geoscientific Model Development, 19(15), doi:10.5194/gmd-19-7169-20267169-7196.
  26. Moseley, Lauren, Galen McKinley, Dustin Carroll, Dimitris Menemenlis, Raphael Dussin, and An Nguyen, August 2026: The ASTE-BGC data-assimilative regional ocean biogeochemical model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 18(8), doi:10.1029/2025MS004976.
  27. Song, Se-Yong, Samantha Stevenson, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Antonietta Capotondi, Niklas Schneider, and Youngji Joh, August 2026: Two contrasting atmospheric circulation patterns linked to Kuroshio Extension variability. Science Advances, 12(32), doi:10.1126/sciadv.aee9489.
  28. Yung, Claire K., Robert Hallberg, Alistair Adcroft, and Adele K Morrison, August 2026: Assessment of a finite volume discretization of the horizontal pressure gradient force beneath sloping ice shelves. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 18(8), doi:10.1029/2025MS005645.