Climate Variability and Prediction
GFDL scientists develop and use global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models to improve understanding of climate variability and change on seasonal to centennial time scales, to assess the predictability of the climate system, and to advance the state of the art in climate predictions.
- Predictability of ENSO modulation
- Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency
- The Spring 2012 Warm Anomaly Over the Eastern U.S.
- Conceptual Modeling of El Niño
- Disentangling El Niño-Mean State Interaction
- Trends in Regional Surface Temperatures
- Downscaling of Future Atlantic Hurricane Activity
- ENSO sensitivity to climate change
- Impact of CO2 on the Atlantic Hurricane Main Development Region
- Understanding Atlantic ITCZ Biases in Models
- The CM2.5 High-Resolution Coupled GCM
- Projections of North Atlantic Tropical Storms
- Capotondi, A., A. T. Wittenberg, et al., 2015: Understanding ENSO diversity. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00117.1 Research Summary (PDF).
- Yang, X., et al. (2014): Seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in GFDL’s high-resolution climate prediction model. J. Climate, in press. Research Summary (PDF)
- Jia, L., et al. (2014): Improved Seasonal Prediction Skill of Land Temperature and Precipitation in a GFDL High-Resolution Climate Model, J. Climate, in press. Research Summary (PDF)
- Vecchi, G.A., et al. (2014): On the Seasonal Forecasting of Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity. J. Climate, 27, 7994-8016. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00158.1 Research Summary (PDF)
- Msadek, R., G.A. Vecchi, M. Winton, R.G. Gudgel (2014): Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5208-5215. doi: 10.1002/2014GL060799 Wittenberg, A. T., et al., 2014: ENSO modulation: Is it decadally predictable? J. Climate, 27, 2667-2681. doi:
10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00577.1. Research Summary (PDF).