Weather and Climate Extremes
GFDL scientists strive to improve the understanding and prediction of weather and climate extremes. Their work encompasses a range of problems and time scales: from five-day model predictions of hurricane track and intensity, to understanding the causes of changes in extremes over the past century, to building new climate prediction models for seamless predictions out to the next several years, to earth system model projections of human-caused changes in various extremes (heat waves, hurricanes, droughts, etc.) over the coming century.
Hurricanes
Heat Stress and Temperature Extremes
Drought
Flooding & Extreme Precipitation
Climate Model Downscaling>
Arctic Sea Ice Trends and ExtremesResearch Highlights
- US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: Quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate
March 1, 2017 - The resolution dependence of contiguous US precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing
August 22, 2016 - U.S. regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability
April 13, 2016 - A link between the hiatus in global warming and North American drought
March 13, 2015 - An Extreme Event of Sea-level Rise along the Northeast Coast of North America in 2009–2010
February 24, 2015 - Regional rainfall decline in Australia attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and ozone levels
July 13, 2014 - The Extreme March-May 2012 Warm Anomaly Over the Eastern United States: Global Context and Multimodel Trend Analysis
September 18, 2013 - Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Late 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios
June 24, 2013 - Response to CO2 doubling of the Atlantic Hurricane Main Development Region in a High-Resolution Climate Model
Apr. 15, 2013 - Ocean Warming effect on Surface Gravity Wave Climate Change for the end of the 21st Century
March 11, 2013 - Heat stress reduces labor capacity under climate warming
Feb 24, 2013 - Springtime high surface ozone events over the western United States: Quantifying the role of stratospheric intrusions
Jan. 21, 2013
Recent Publications
- Fan, Yalin, Shian-Jiann Lin, Stephen M Griffies, and M A Hemer, May 2014: Simulated Global Swell and Wind Sea Climate and Their responses to Anthropogenic Climate Change at the End of the 21st Century. Journal of Climate, 27(10), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00198.1.
- Lau, Ngar-Cheung, and Mary Jo Nath, May 2014: Model Simulation and Projection of European Heat Waves in Present-Day and Future Climates. Journal of Climate, 27(10), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00284.1.
- Zhou, W, Isaac M Held, and Stephen T Garner, March 2014: Parameter study of tropical cyclones in rotating radiative-convective equilibrium with column physics and resolution of a 25 km GCM. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71(3), DOI:10.1175/JAS-D-13-0190.1.
- Bollasina, Massimo, Yi Ming, V Ramaswamy, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, and Vaishali Naik, January 2014: Contribution of Local and Remote Anthropogenic Aerosols to the 20th century Weakening of the South Asian Monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(2), DOI:10.1002/2013GL058183.
