Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Inter-annual Variability

The GFDL global High-Resolution Atmospheric model (HiRAM) with approximately 25-km resolution is being applied to perform experimental predictions of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Atlantic and the (eastern and western) North Pacific basins. Considering the complex air-sea interactions with vastly different temporal and spatial scales involved (e.g., convective cloud systems, monsoons, and MJOs), a high resolution global model with realistic physical parameterizations such as GFDL HiRam is essential. At present time, the results of inter-annual variability of TC counts, intensity, and genesis location distributions are being evaluated for TC seasons from 2000 to 2009. We will use these results to guide further developments in the dynamical core formulations and physical parameterizations (in particular, cloud macro and micro physics and shallow convection).