Taboada, Fernando G., Jong-Yeon Park, Barbara A Muhling, Desiree Tommasi, Kisei R Tanaka, Ryan R Rykaczewski, Charles A Stock, and Jorge L Sarmiento, March 2023: Anticipating fluctuations of bigeye tuna in the Pacific Ocean from three-dimensional ocean biogeochemistry. Journal of Applied Ecology, 60(3), DOI:10.1111/1365-2664.14346463-479. Abstract
1) Subseasonal to decadal ocean forecasting can make significant contributions to achieving effective management of living marine resources in a changing ocean. Most applications rely on indirect proxies, however, often measured at the ocean surface and lacking a direct mechanistic link to the dynamics of marine populations.
2) Here, we take advantage of three-dimensional, dynamical reconstructions and forecasts of ocean biogeochemistry based on a global Earth system model to hindcast and assess the capacity to anticipate fluctuations in the dynamics of bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus Lowe) in the Pacific Ocean during the last six decades. We reconstructed spatial patterns in catch per unit effort (CPUE) through the combination of physiological indices capturing both habitat preferences and physiological tolerance limits in bigeye tuna.
3) Our analyses revealed a sequence of four distinct regimes characterized by changes in the zonal distribution and average CPUE of bigeye tuna in the Pacific Ocean. Habitat models accounting for basin-wide fluctuations in the thermal structure and oxygen concentration throughout the water column captured interannual fluctuations in CPUE and regime switches that models based solely on surface information were unable to reproduce. Decade-long forecast experiments further suggested that forecasts of three-dimensional biogeochemical information might enable anticipation of fluctuations in bigeye tuna several years ahead.
4) Synthesis and applications. Together, our results reveal the impact of variability of biogeochemical conditions in the ocean interior on the dynamics of bigeye tuna on the Pacific Ocean, raising concerns about the future impact of ocean warming and deoxygenation. The results also lend support to incorporating subsurface biogeochemical information into ecological forecasts to implement efficient dynamic management strategies and promote the sustainable use of marine living resources.
The extension of seasonal to interannual prediction of the physical climate system to include the marine ecosystem has a great potential to inform marine resource management strategies. Along the east coast of Africa, recent findings suggest that skillful Earth system model (ESM)-based chlorophyll predictions may enable anticipation of fisheries fluctuations. The mechanisms underlying skillful chlorophyll predictions, however, were not identified, eroding confidence in potential adaptive management steps. This study demonstrates that skillful chlorophyll predictions up to two years in advance arise from the successful simulation of westward-propagating off-equatorial Rossby waves in the Indian ocean. Upwelling associated with these waves supplies nutrients to the surface layer for the large coastal areas by generating north- and southward propagating waves at the east African coast. Further analysis shows that the off-equatorial Rossby wave is initially excited by wind stress forcing caused by El Niño/Southern Oscillation-Indian Ocean teleconnections.
Muhling, Barbara A., Stephanie Snyder, Elliot L Hazen, Rebecca Whitlock, Heidi Dewar, Jong-Yeon Park, Charles A Stock, and Barbara A Block, March 2022: Risk and reward in foraging migrations of North Pacific albacore determined from estimates of energy intake and movement costs. Frontiers in Marine Science, DOI:10.3389/fmars.2022.730428. Abstract
North Pacific albacore (Thunnus alalunga) is a commercially important tuna species known to undertake extensive migratory movements between nearshore waters of the California Current and offshore environments in the central Pacific. However, these migration behaviors are highly variable, with some individuals traveling thousands of kilometers within a season, and others largely resident in the southern California Current throughout the year. In this study, we use data from 33 archival-tagged albacore (released between 2003 and 2011) to examine the movements, physiology and ecology of tuna following different migratory pathways. We used direct measurements of body temperature and ambient water temperature from internal archival tags to estimate energy intake via the Heat Increment of Feeding (HIF), the increased internal heat production associated with digestion of a meal. Our results indicate that HIF was variable in space and time, but it was highest for individuals foraging in the offshore North Pacific Transition Zone and southern California Current during spring and summer, and lowest in the Transition Zone in fall. None of the migratory strategies examined appeared to confer consistently higher energetic benefits than the others. Fish remaining resident in the southern California Current year-round incurred lower migration costs, and could access favorable foraging conditions off Baja California in spring and summer. In contrast, fish which undertook longer migrations had much higher energetic costs during periods of faster transit times, but were able to reach highly productive foraging areas in the central and western Pacific. HIF was generally higher in larger fish, and when ambient temperatures were cooler, but was not strongly correlated with other environmental covariates. Our analyses offer new avenues for studying the physiology of wild tuna populations, and can complement diet and isotopic studies to further understanding of fish ecology.
Lim, Hyung-Gyu, Jong-Yeon Park, John P Dunne, and Charles A Stock, et al., May 2021: Importance of human-induced nitrogen flux increases for simulated Arctic warming. Journal of Climate, 34(10), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0180.13799-3819. Abstract
Human activities such as fossil fuel combustion, land-use change, nitrogen (N) fertilizer use, emission of livestock, and waste excretion accelerate the transformation of reactive N and its impact on the marine environment. This study elucidates that anthropogenic N fluxes (ANFs) from atmospheric and river deposition exacerbate Arctic warming and sea ice loss via physical–biological feedback. The impact of physical–biological feedback is quantified through a suite of experiments using a coupled climate–ocean–biogeochemical model (GFDL-CM2.1-TOPAZ) by prescribing the preindustrial and contemporary amounts of riverine and atmospheric N fluxes into the Arctic Ocean. The experiment forced by ANFs represents the increase in ocean N inventory and chlorophyll concentrations in present and projected future Arctic Ocean relative to the experiment forced by preindustrial N flux inputs. The enhanced chlorophyll concentrations by ANFs reinforce shortwave attenuation in the upper ocean, generating additional warming in the Arctic Ocean. The strongest responses are simulated in the Eurasian shelf seas (Kara, Barents, and Laptev Seas; 65°–90°N, 20°–160°E) due to increased N fluxes, where the annual mean surface temperature increase by 12% and the annual mean sea ice concentration decrease by 17% relative to the future projection, forced by preindustrial N inputs.
Climate variations have a profound impact on marine ecosystems and the communities that depend upon them. Anticipating ecosystem shifts using global Earth system models (ESMs) could enable communities to adapt to climate fluctuations and contribute to long-term ecosystem resilience. We show that newly developed ESM-based marine biogeochemical predictions can skillfully predict satellite-derived seasonal to multiannual chlorophyll fluctuations in many regions. Prediction skill arises primarily from successfully simulating the chlorophyll response to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and capturing the winter reemergence of subsurface nutrient anomalies in the extratropics, which subsequently affect spring and summer chlorophyll concentrations. Further investigations suggest that interannual fish-catch variations in selected large marine ecosystems can be anticipated from predicted chlorophyll and sea surface temperature anomalies. This result, together with high predictability for other marine-resource–relevant biogeochemical properties (e.g., oxygen, primary production), suggests a role for ESM-based marine biogeochemical predictions in dynamic marine resource management efforts.
Lim, Hyung-Gyu, Jong-Yeon Park, and Jong-Seong Kug, October 2018: Impact of chlorophyll bias on the tropical Pacific mean climate in an earth system model. Climate Dynamics, 51(7-8), DOI:10.1007/s00382-017-4036-8. Abstract
Climate modeling groups nowadays develop earth system models (ESMs) by incorporating biogeochemical processes in their climate models. The ESMs, however, often show substantial bias in simulated marine biogeochemistry which can potentially introduce an undesirable bias in physical ocean fields through biogeophysical interactions. This study examines how and how much the chlorophyll bias in a state-of-the-art ESM affects the mean and seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST). The ESM used in the present study shows a sizeable positive bias in the simulated tropical chlorophyll. We found that the correction of the chlorophyll bias can reduce the ESM’s intrinsic cold SST mean bias in the equatorial Pacific. The biologically-induced cold SST bias is strongly affected by seasonally-dependent air–sea coupling strength. In addition, the correction of chlorophyll bias can improve the annual cycle of SST by up to 25%. This result suggests a possible modeling approach in understanding the two-way interactions between physical and chlorophyll biases by biogeophysical effects.
Ocean chlorophyll concentration, a proxy for phytoplankton, is strongly influenced by internal ocean dynamics such as those associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observations show that ocean chlorophyll responses to ENSO generally lead sea surface temperature (SST) responses in the equatorial Pacific. A long-term global earth system model simulation incorporating marine biogeochemical processes also exhibits a preceding chlorophyll response. In contrast to simulated SST anomalies which significantly lag the wind-driven subsurface heat response to ENSO, chlorophyll anomalies respond rapidly. Iron was found to be the key factor connecting the simulated surface chlorophyll anomalies to the subsurface ocean response. Westerly wind bursts decrease central Pacific chlorophyll by reducing iron supply through wind-driven thermocline deepening, but increase western Pacific chlorophyll by enhancing the influx of coastal iron from the maritime continent. Our results mechanistically support the potential for chlorophyll-based indices to inform seasonal ENSO forecasts beyond previously identified SST-based indices.
Reliable estimates of historical and current biogeochemistry are essential for understanding past ecosystem variability and predicting future changes. Efforts to translate improved physical ocean state estimates into improved biogeochemical estimates, however, are hindered by high biogeochemical sensitivity to transient momentum imbalances that arise during physical data assimilation. Most notably, the breakdown of geostrophic constraints on data assimilation in equatorial regions can lead to spurious upwelling, resulting in excessive equatorial productivity and biogeochemical fluxes. This hampers efforts to understand and predict the biogeochemical consequences of El Niño and La Niña. We develop a strategy to robustly integrate an ocean biogeochemical model with an ensemble coupled-climate data assimilation system used for seasonal to decadal global climate prediction. Addressing spurious vertical velocities requires two steps. First, we find that tightening constraints on atmospheric data assimilation maintains a better equatorial wind stress and pressure gradient balance. This reduces spurious vertical velocities, but those remaining still produce substantial biogeochemical biases. The remainder is addressed by imposing stricter fidelity to model dynamics over data constraints near the equator. We determine an optimal choice of model-data weights that removed spurious biogeochemical signals while benefitting from off-equatorial constraints that still substantially improve equatorial physical ocean simulations. Compared to the unconstrained control run, the optimally constrained model reduces equatorial biogeochemical biases and markedly improves the equatorial subsurface nitrate concentrations and hypoxic area. The pragmatic approach described herein offers a means of advancing earth system prediction in parallel with continued data assimilation advances aimed at fully considering equatorial data constraints.
Park, Jong-Yeon, J Bader, and D Matei, October 2016: Anthropogenic Mediterranean warming essential driver for present and future Sahel rainfall. Nature Climate Change, 6(10), DOI:10.1038/nclimate3065. Abstract
The long-lasting Sahel drought in the 1970s and 1980s caused enormous human and socio-economic losses1, driving extensive research on its causes2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Although changes in global and regional sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are thought to be dominant drivers of the severe Sahel drying trend9, 10, 11, 12, the mechanisms for the recent recovery trend are not fully clear yet, but are often assumed to be akin to the previous SST–Sahel drought linkage13, 14, 15. Here we show, by analysing observational and multi-model data and conducting SST-sensitivity experiments with two state-of-the-art atmospheric models, that the SST key area causing the recent Sahel rainfall recovery is the Mediterranean Sea. Anthropogenic warming of this region has driven the shift from the tropical Atlantic and Indo-Pacific oceans, which historically were the main driver of Sahel drought. The wetting impact of Mediterranean Sea warming can become more dominant in a future warming climate and is key to understanding the uncertainty in future Sahel rainfall projections.
