GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

GFDL Events & Seminars

Upcoming GFDL events & seminars

Events and seminars

  • May 26, 2017: Modeling ocean acidification and hypoxia
    Samantha Siedlecki (University of Washington)
    The coastal ocean is important to global biogeochemical cycling in many ways - high productivity and carbon burial, source for iron to the open ocean, and through making global change issues relevant locally. Ocean acidification and hypoxia of coastal waters are of increasing concern to local fisheries. Many economically or ecologically important species (oysters, crabs, phytoplankton, zooplankton) in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) are expected to feel direct effects of ocean acidification. Direct effects have been observed on the $100 million shellfish industry, and additional indirect economic impacts are possible on the finfish industry due to a loss of prey species. The ability to predict the degree of hypoxia and acidification as well as relevant indices of impact for species of interest could be of considerable benefit to managers. Through the design of biogeochemically relevant tracers and implementation in high-resolution models, regional simulations can improve our understanding of processes difficult to observe, investigate relationships between the ecology of marine organisms and ocean health, and generate forecasts and projections of changes to the region. For example, through realistic simulations of oxygen variability on the Washington and Oregon shelves, the seasonal oxygen decline observed on the Washington shelf was determined to be dominated by local respiration of biomass, which experiences a lot of spatial and temporal variability (Siedlecki et al, 2015). That model was extended into a seasonal forecasting project for the same region (JISAO’s Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem, J-SCOPE) with applications for fisheries management (Siedlecki et al, 2016), as well as a short term (days), state funded forecasting system to inform the shellfish industry (LiveOcean). The model now includes ocean acidification variables, whose design elucidated the importance of regional freshwater variability in determining local OA variability. These results showcase the increasingly stressful conditions over most of the water column for biota in the coastal ocean. While the PNW waters are experiencing this earlier than other coastal regions, the tools developed and lessons learned there can be applied to other regions to equip local stakeholders with the knowledge necessary to manage the risk to their species of interest.
    Time: 1:00 pm - 2:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • May 31, 2017: Predicting and characterizing atmospheric states from local dynamical properties of the underlying attractor
    Davide Faranda (Laboratorie des Sciences du Climate (LSCE) of the University of Paris-Saclay)
    Mid-latitude flows are characterized by a chaotic dynamics and recurring patterns hinting to the existence of an atmospheric attractor. In 1963 Lorenz described this object as: “the collection of all states that the system can assume or approach again and again, as opposed to those that it will ultimately avoid" and analyzed a low dimensional system describing a convective dynamics whose attractor has the shape of a butterfly. Since then, many studies try to find equivalent of the Lorenz butterfly in the complex atmospheric dynamics. Most of the studies where focused to determine the average dimension D of the attractor i.e. the number of degrees of freedom sufficient to describe the atmospheric circulation. However, obtaining reliable estimates of D has proved challenging. Moreover, D does not provide information on transient atmospheric motions, such as those leading to weather extremes. Using recent developments in dynamical systems theory, we show that such motions can be classified through instantaneous rather than average properties of the attractor. The instantaneous properties are uniquely determined by instantaneous dimension and stability. Their extreme values correspond to specific atmospheric patterns, and match extreme weather occurrences. We further show the existence of a significant correlation between the time series of instantaneous stability and dimension and the mean spread of sea-level pressure fields in an operational ensemble weather forecast at lead times of over two weeks. Instantaneous properties of the attractor therefore provide an efficient way of evaluating and informing operational weather forecasts
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • June 1, 2017: TBD
    Nicholas Lutsko - FPO (Princeton University)
    TBD
    Time: 10:00 am - 12:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • June 1, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • June 8, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • June 9, 2017: Recent progress on predicting breaking onset for water waves and modeling wave breaking influence in sea state forecast models
    Michael L. Banner (University of New South Wales Sydney, Australia)
    Breaking waves have challenged mariners since the earliest days of seafaring, with scientific and engineering interest in this topic increasing rapidly following the publication of Stokes’ remarkable mathematical theory of water waves in 1847. Yet despite transformative advances in computational capabilities, wave breaking has resisted a compelling understanding of what actually underpins its onset and whether it is generic across the diverse scenarios of breaking onset – group-mediated, bottom-induced, opposing current, amongst others. In this talk I will highlight our exciting recent progress on elucidating key aspects of this historically elusive topic, which likely have broader application to other natural dispersive wave systems. Of particular interest are refinements to present understanding of wave geometry/kinematics in unsteady 2D and 3D wave packet evolution, involving crest (and trough) leaning modes which can appreciably modify wave crest (and trough) speeds. This has led to new insights on wave breaking onset, including development of a unified breaking threshold for 2D and 3D wave packets for a wide range of depth/wavelength conditions which is closely supported by observations. I will also overview recent advances we have made on the allied topic of representing wave breaking in spectral ocean wave forecast models to model the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate from breaking. This enables forecasting key properties of geophysical importance from standard sea state forecasts that depend on wave breaking as well as the wind speed, including whitecap cover and sea spray flux.
    Time: 10:30 am - 11:30 am
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • June 14, 2017: TBD
    Bing Pu (Princeton University)
    TBD
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • June 21, 2017: Circulation and mixing in deep arctic ocean
    Hayley Dosser
    Circulation and mixing in deep arctic ocean
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • June 22, 2017: Risk analysis of hurricane storm surge in a changing climate
    Ning Lin (Princeton University)
    Hurricanes, with their strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges, cause much damage and loss of life worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing hurricane activity due to climate change. We develop an integrated framework to assess hurricane hazard risk in a changing environment; in this talk, we focus on hurricane storm surge risk. We first couple a General Circulation Model (GCM)-driven statistical/deterministic hurricane model with hydrodynamic model ADCIRC to simulate large numbers of synthetic storm surge events and project future surge climatology. We then propose an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess coastal flood risk at regional scales, considering integrated dynamic effects of projected surge climatology change, sea-level rise, and economic/population growth. Temporally-varying risk measures such as the return period of various damage levels and the mean and variance of annual damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as present value of future losses are derived to support probabilistic benefit-cost analysis for risk mitigation strategies. The application of the risk analysis framework to hurricane wind, rainfall, and eventually the joint multi-hazards is under development. Ning Lin is an Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Princeton University. She integrates science, engineering, and policy to study hurricane hazards, how they change with the climate, and how to better mitigate their impact on the society. She has published in high-impact journals including Science, Nature Climate Change, and Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences. Lin received her Ph.D. in Civil and Environmental Engineering from Princeton University in 2010. She also received a certificate in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy in 2010 from Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. Before rejoining Princeton as an assistant professor in 2012, she conducted research in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at MIT as a NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow.
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • June 22, 2017: Roundtable Discussion
    Ning Lin
    After Action Review - Roundatable Discussion
    Time: 3:00 pm - 4:00 pm
    Location: 217 Conference Room
  • June 29, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • July 5, 2017: TBD
    Kun Gao (GFDL/Princeton University)
    TBD
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • July 6, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • July 13, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • July 20, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • July 27, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • August 3, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • August 10, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • August 17, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • August 24, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • August 28, 2017: Held Symposium
    Held Symposium
    Held Symposium
    Time: 8:00 am - 6:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • August 29, 2017: Held Symposium
    Held Symposium
    Held Symposium
    Time: 8:00 am - 6:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • August 30, 2017: Held Symposium
    Held Symposium
    Held Symposium
    Time: 8:00 am - 6:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • August 31, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • September 4, 2017: Federal Holiday
    PUBLIC HOLIDAY
    Federal Holiday - Day off! Labor Day Observed. No events scheduled.
    Time: All Day
    Location: Other (see event description)
  • September 6, 2017: Sahel rainfall response to a uniform oceanic warming
    Yi Ming (GFDL)
    Coupled climate models project future changes to rainfall in the African Sahel ranging from severe drying to severe wettening. Atmosphere-only models perturbed with uniform ocean surface warming span a similar range, motivating study of the simpler latter problem in order to constrain the more societally relevant former one. We analyze four comprehensive atmospheric models developed at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, which respond to uniform ocean surface warming of 2 K with Sahel wet season rainfall changes ranging from -38 to +15%. A detailed MSE budget analysis reveals the relative importance of different processes in determining the response.
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • September 7, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • September 13, 2017: TBD
    Lorenzo Polvani (Columbia University)
    TBD
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • September 14, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • September 20, 2017: TBA
    Yohai Kaspi
    Yohai Kaspi Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences Weizmann Institute of Science, Israel
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • September 21, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • September 28, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • October 4, 2017: Moisture-convection feedbacks and a precipitation equation for the Madden-Julian Oscillation
    Angel Adames (GFDL)
    Column moisture and moist static energy (MSE) budgets have become common tools in the study of the processes responsible for the maintenance and evolution of the MJO. While many studies have shown that precipitation is spatially correlated with column moisture, these budgets do not directly describe the MJO-related precipitation anomalies. Other spatially varying fields may also play a role in determining the horizontal distribution of anomalous precipitation. In this study, an empirical precipitation anomaly field is derived that depends on three variables in addition to column moisture. These are the low-frequency distribution of precipitation, the low-frequency column saturation water vapor, and the sensitivity of precipitation to changes in column relative humidity. The addition of these fields improve upon moisture/MSE budgets by confining these anomalies to the climatologically rainy areas of the tropics, where MJO activity is strongest. The derived field adequately describes the MJO-related precipitation anomalies, comparing favorably with TRMM precipitation data.
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • October 5, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • October 11, 2017: TBD
    Pu Lin
    TBD
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • October 12, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • October 16, 2017: PUBLIC HOLIDAY
    PUBLIC HOLIDAY
    Columbus Day Observed - Day Off;
    Time: All Day
    Location: Other (see event description)
  • October 19, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • October 25, 2017: TBD
    Hyeyum Hailey Shin (GFDL)
    TBD
    Time: 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • October 26, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • November 2, 2017: GFDL Fall Symposium
    GFDL Fall Symposium
    GFDL Fall Symposium
    Time: 8:00 am - 5:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • November 9, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • November 10, 2017: PUBLIC HOLIDAY
    PUBLIC HOLIDAY
    Veterans Day Observed! - Day Off! No events will be scheduled.
    Time: All Day
    Location: Other (see event description)
  • November 16, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • November 23, 2017: TBD
    Formal Seminar
    TBD
    Time: 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
    Location: Smagorinsky Seminar Room
  • November 23, 2017: PUBLIC HOLIDAY
    PUBLIC HOLIDAY
    Thanksgiving Day observed! - Day off. No events scheduled.
    Time: All Day
    Location: Other (see event description)

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