GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

GFDL’s IPCC AR5 Papers

CHAPTER 1 – Introduction

  • Moss, R., et al., 2010: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463, 747-756.
  • Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 485-498.

CHAPTER 2 – Observations: Atmosphere and Surface

  • Knutson, T. R., et al., 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change, Nature Geoscience, 3, 157-163.
  • Scinocca, J, D B Stephenson, T Bailey, and John Austin, November 2010: Estimates of past and future ozone trends from multi-model simulations using a flexible smoothing spline methodology. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D00M12, DOI:10.1029/2009JD013622
  • Vecchi, G.A., and T.R. Knutson (2008). On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Topical Cyclone Activity. J. Climate, 21(14),3580-3600.
  • Vecchi, G.A., and T.R. Knutson (2011):Estimating annual numbers of Atlantic hurricanes missing from the HURDAT database (1878-1965) using ship track density. J. Climate, 24(6), 1736-1746, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3810.1
  • Vecchi, G.A., B.J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M.J. Harrison (2006). Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature. v.441, doi:10.1038/nature04744.
  • Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden (2007). Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905.
  • Villarini, G., J. Smith, and G. Vecchi, 2013: Changing Frequency of Heavy Rainfall over the Central United States. Journal of Climate, 26, 351-357.

CHAPTER 5 – Information from Paleoclimate Archives

  • DiNezio, P. N., A. Clement, G. A. Vecchi, B. Soden, A. J. Broccoli, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, and P. Braconnot, 2011: The response of the Walker circulation to Last Glacial Maximum forcing: Implications for detection in proxies. Paleoceanography, 26, PA3217.
  • Lamarque, J. F., et al., 2010: Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 7017-7039.
  • Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2005: Simulated tropical response to a substantial weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Journal of Climate, 18, 1853-1860.
  • Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2006: Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L17712.

CHAPTER 6 – Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles

  • Baker, D. F., et al., 2006: TransCom 3 inversion intercomparison: Impact of transport model errors on the interannual variability of regional CO2 fluxes, 1988?2003. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 20, GB1002.
  • Bianchi, D., J. P. Dunne, J. L. Sarmiento, and E. D. Galbraith, 2012: Data-based estimates of suboxia, denitrification and N2O production in the ocean and their sensitivity to dissolved O2. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 26, GB2009.
  • Cocco, V., et al., 2013: Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections. Biogeosciences, 10, 1849-1868.
  • Crévoisier, C., D. Nobileau, A. M. Fiore, R. Armante, A. Chédin, and N. A. Scott, 2009: Tropospheric methane in the tropics – first year from IASI hyperspectral infrared observations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9, 6337-6350.
  • Dentener, F., et al., 2006: The global atmospheric environment for the next generation. Environmental Science & Technology, 40, 3586-3594.
  • Deutsch, C., J. L. Sarmiento, D. M. Sigman, N. Gruber, and J. P. Dunne, 2007: Spatial coupling of nitrogen inputs and losses in the ocean. Nature, 445, 163-167.
  • Dunne, J. P., et al., 2012a: GFDL’s ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part II: Carbon system formation and baseline simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00150.1.10/12, in press.
  • Dunne, J. P., et al., 2012b: GFDL’s ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models Part I: Physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate, 25, 6646-6665.
  • Friedlingstein, P., et al., 2006: Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from the C4MIP model intercomparison.Journal of Climate, 19, 3337-3353.
  • Fung, I., J. John, J. Lerner, E. Matthews, M. Prather, L. P. Steele, and P. J. Fraser, 1991: Three-dimensional model synthesis of the global methane cycle. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 96, 13033-13065.
  • Gnanadesikan, A., J. P. Dunne, and J. John, 2012: Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model. Biogeosciences, 9, 1159-1172.
  • from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 2063-2090, 10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013.
  • Lamarque, J. F., et al., 2013: The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics. Geoscience Model Development, 6, 179-206.
  • Sarmiento, J. L., T. M. C. Hughes, R. J. Stouffer, and S. Manabe, 1998: Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming. Nature, 393, 245-249.
  • Sentman, L. T., E. Shevliakova, R. J. Stouffer, and S. Malyshev, 2011: Time scales of terrestrial carbon response related to land-use application: Implications for initializing an Earth System Model. Earth Interactions, 15, 1-16.
  • Voulgarakis, A., et al., 2013: Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 2563-2587.

CHAPTER 7 – Clouds and Aerosols

  • Baughman, E., A. Gnanadesikan, A. Degaetano, and A. Adcroft, 2012: Investigation of the surface and circulation impacts of cloud-brightening geoengineering. Journal of Climate, 25, 7527-7543.
  • Donner, L. J., et al., 2011: The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3. Journal of Climate, 24, 3484–3519
  • Ghan, S. J., H. Abdul-Razzak, A. Nenes, Y. Ming, X. Liu, and M. Ovchinnikov, 2011: Droplet nucleation: Physicallybased parameterizations and comparative evaluation. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 3, M10001.
  • Golaz, J-C, V E Larson, and W R Cotton, December 2002: A PDF based model for boundary layer clouds. Part I: Method and model description. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 59(24), DOI:10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<3519:SSAMVI>2.0.CO;2.
  • Golaz, J-C, M Salzmann, Leo J Donner, Larry W Horowitz, Yi Ming, and Ming Zhao, July 2011: Sensitivity of the aerosol indirect effect to subgrid variability in the cloud parameterization of the GFDL Atmosphere General Circulation Model AM3. Journal of Climate, 24(13), DOI:10.1175/2010JCLI3945.1.
  • Guo, Huan, J-C Golaz, Leo J Donner, D P Schanen, and B M Griffin, October 2010: Multi-variate probability density functions with dynamics for cloud droplet activation in large-scale models: Single column tests. Geoscientific Model Development, 3(2), DOI:10.5194/gmd-3-475-2010.
  • Hill, S., and Y. Ming, 2012: Nonlinear climate response to regional brightening of tropical marine stratocumulus. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L15707.
  • Klein, Stephen A., and co-authors, May 2009: Intercomparisons of model simulations of mixed-phase clouds observed during the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. Part I: Single layer cloud. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135(641), DOI:10.1002/qj.416.
  • Larson, V E., and J-C Golaz, et al., May 2001: Systematic biases in the microphysics and
  • thermodynamics of numerical models that ignore subgrid-scale variability. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 58(9), DOI:10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<1117:SBITMA>2.0.CO;2.
  • Larson, V E., and J-C Golaz, April 2005: Using probability density functions to derive consistent closure relationships among higher-order moments. Monthly Weather Review, 133(4), DOI:10.1175/MWR2902.1.
  • Lee, Y. H., et al., 2013: Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 2607-2634
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, P. A. Ginoux, L. W. Horowitz, and L. M. Russell, 2005: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model investigation of the indirect radiative effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D22206.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, L. J. Donner, V. T. J. Phillips, S. A. Klein, P. A. Ginoux, and L. W. Horowitz, 2007b: Modeling the interactions between aerosols and liquid water clouds with a self-consistent cloud scheme in a general circulation model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64, 1189-1209.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, and G. Persad, 2010: Two opposing effects of absorbing aerosols on global-mean precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L13701.
  • Ocko, I. B., V. Ramaswamy, P. Ginoux, Y. Ming, and L. W. Horowitz, 2012: Sensitivity of scattering and absorbing aerosol direct radiative forcing to physical climate factors. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D20203.
  • Persad, Geeta, Yi Ming, and V Ramaswamy, April 2012: Tropical tropospheric-only responses to absorbing aerosols. Journal of Climate, 25(7), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00122.1.
  • Randall, D. A., et al., 2007: Climate Models and Their Evaluation. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
  • Salzmann, M, Yi Ming, J-C Golaz, Paul Ginoux, H Morrison, A Gettelman, M Krämer, and Leo J Donner, August 2010: Two-moment bulk stratiform cloud microphysics in the GFDL AM3 GCM: description, evaluation, and sensitivity tests. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10(16), DOI:10.5194/acp-10-8037-2010.
  • Seager, R., N. Naik and G.A. Vecchi (2010): Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Climate, 23(17), 4670-4687 doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1
  • Shindell, D.T., J.-F. Lamarque, M. Schulz, M. Flanner, et al., 2013: Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 2939-2974, doi:10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013
  • Soden, B.J., and G.A. Vecchi (2011): The Vertical Distribution of Cloud Feedback in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2011GL047632
  • Stephens, G L., T L’Ecuyer, J M Forbes, A Gettelman, J-C Golaz, A Bodas-Salcedo, K Suzuki, P Gabriel, and J Haynes, December 2010: Dreary state of precipitation in global models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D24211, DOI:10.1029/2010JD014532.
  • Stevens, B, and co-authors, June 2005: Evaluation of large-eddy simulations via observations of nocturnal marine stratocumulus. Monthly Weather Review, 133(6), DOI:10.1175/MWR2930.1.
  • Xie, S.-P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2010: Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall. Journal of Climate, 23, 966–986.

CHAPTER 8 – Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing

  • Bollasina, M. A., Y. Ming, and V. Ramaswamy, 2011: Anthropogenic Aerosols and the Weakening of the South Asian 42 Summer Monsoon. Science, doi:10.1126/science.1204994.
  • Bowman, K. W., et al., 2013: Evaluation of ACCMIP outgoing longwave radiation from tropospheric ozone using TES satellite observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4057-4072.
  • Fiore, A. M., et al., 2009: Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D04301.
  • Findell, K. L., E. Shevliakova, P. C. D. Milly, and R. J. Stouffer, 2007: Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Journal of Climate, 20, 3621-3634.
  • WMO. 2010. Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010. Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project-Report No. 52, Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization.
  • Horowitz, L. W., 2006: Past, present, and future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and aerosols: Methodology, ozone evaluation, and sensitivity to aerosol wet removal. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 111, D22211.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, L. J. Donner, V. T. J. Phillips, S. A. Klein, P. A. Ginoux, and L. W. Horowitz, 2007b: Modeling the interactions between aerosols and liquid water clouds with a self-consistent cloud scheme in a general circulation model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64, 1189-1209.
  • Ming, Y., and V. Ramaswamy, 2012: Nonlocal component of radiative flux perturbation. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L22706.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, and G. Chen, 2011: A Model Investigation of Aerosol-Induced Changes in Boreal Winter Extratropical Circulation. Journal of Climate, 24, 6077-6091.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, and G. Persad, 2010: Two opposing effects of absorbing aerosols on global-mean precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L13701.
  • Naik, V., D. L. Mauzerall, L. W. Horowitz, M. D. Schwarzkopf, V. Ramaswamy, and M. Oppenheimer, 2007: On the sensitivity of radiative forcing from biomass burning aerosols and ozone to emission location. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L03818
  • Persad, Geeta, Yi Ming, and V Ramaswamy, April 2012: Tropical tropospheric-only responses to absorbing aerosols. Journal of Climate, 25(7), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00122.1.
  • Shindell, D., M. Schulz, Y. Ming, T. Takemura, G. Faluvegi, and V. Ramaswamy, 2010: Spatial scales of climate response to inhomogeneous radiative forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research-
  • Atmospheres, 115, D19110.
  • Stenchikov, G., T. L. Delworth, V. Ramaswamy, R. J. Stouffer, A. Wittenberg, and F. R. Zeng, 2009: Volcanic signals in oceans. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 114, D16104.
  • Stevenson, D. S., P. J. Young, V. Naik, J. F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, A. Voulgarakis, et al., 2013: Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3063-3085.

CHAPTER 9 – Evaluation of Climate Models

  • Austin, J., and R. J. Wilson, 2006: Ensemble simulations of the decline and recovery of stratospheric ozone. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 111, D16314.
  • Beare, R J., and co-authors, 2006: An intercomparison of large-eddy simulations of the stable boundary layer. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 118, DOI:10.1007/s10546-004-2820-6.
  • Bender, M. A., T. R. Knutson, R. E. Tuleya, J. J. Sirutis, G. A. Vecchi, S. T. Garner, and I. M. Held, 2010: Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes. Science, 327, 454-458.
  • Bollasina, M. A., and Y. Ming, 2013: The general circulation model precipitation bias over the southwestern equatorial Indian Ocean and its implications for simulating the South Asian monsoon. Climate Dynamics, 40, 823-838.
  • DiNezio, P.N., A.C. Clement, G.A. Vecchi, B.J. Soden, B.P. Kirtman, S.-K. Lee (2009): Climate Response of the Equatorial Pacific to Global Warming. J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2982.1
  • Dubovik, O., T. Lapyonok, Y. J. Kaufman, M. Chin, P. Ginoux, R. A. Kahn, and A. Sinyuk, 2008: Retrieving global aerosol sources from satellites using inverse modeling. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 8, 209–250.
  • Fox-Kemper, B, G Danabasoglu, R Ferrari, Stephen M Griffies, Robert W Hallberg, M M Holland, M E Maltrud, S L Peacock, and Bonita L Samuels, July 2011: Parameterization of mixed layer eddies. III: Implementation and impact in global ocean climate simulations. Ocean Modelling, 39(1-2), DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.09.002.
  • Fox-Kemper, B, R Ferrari, and Robert W Hallberg, 2008: Parameterization of mixed layer eddies. Part I: Theory and diagnosis. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 38(6), DOI:10.1175/2007JPO3792.1.
  • Eyring, V., et al., 2013: Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50316, in press.
  • Ginoux, P., D. Garbuzov, and N. C. Hsu, 2010: Identification of anthropogenic and natural dust sources using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue level 2 data. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115, D05204.
  • Ginoux, P., J. M. Prospero, T. E. Gill, N. C. Hsu, and M. Zhao, 2012a: Global-scale attribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources and their emission rates based on MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products. Reviews of Geophysics, 50, RG3005.
  • Ginoux, P., L. Clarisse, C. Clerbaux, P.-F. Coheur, O. Dubovik, N. C. Hsu, and M. Van Damme, 2012b: Mixing of dust and NH3 observed globally over anthropogenic dust sources Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12, 7351-7363.
  • Golaz, J-C, M Salzmann, Leo J Donner, Larry W Horowitz, Yi Ming, and Ming Zhao, July 2011: Sensitivity of the aerosol indirect effect to subgrid variability in the cloud parameterization of the GFDL Atmosphere General Circulation Model AM3. Journal of Climate, 24(13), DOI:10.1175/2010JCLI3945.1.
  • Griffies, Stephen M., Robert W Hallberg, A Pirani, Bonita L Samuels, and Michael Winton, et al., January 2009: Coordinated ocean-ice reference experiments (COREs). Ocean Modelling, 26(1-2), DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.08.007.
  • Grousset, F. E., P. Ginoux, A. Bory, and P. E. Biscaye, 2003: Case study of a Chinese dust plume reaching the French Alps. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, L22701.
  • Hallberg, R., and A. Adcroft, 2009: Reconciling estimates of the free surface height in Lagrangian vertical coordinate ocean models with mode-split time stepping. Ocean Modelling, 29, 15-26.
  • Chen, C. T., and T. Knutson, 2008: On the verification and comparison of extreme rainfall indices from climate models, Journal of Climate, 21, 1605-1621.
  • Chin, M., T. Diehl, P. Ginoux, and W. Malm, 2007: Intercontinental transport of pollution and dust aerosols: implications for regional air quality. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 7, 5501-5517.
  • Delworth, T. L., et al., 2006: GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate, 19, 643–674.
  • Gurney, K. R., et al., 2003: TransCom 3 CO2 inversion intercomparison: 1. Annual mean control results and sensitivity to transport and prior flux information. Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 55, 555-579.
  • Hallberg, Robert W., and Anand Gnanadesikan, 2006: The role of eddies in determining the structure and response of the wind-driven Southern Hemisphere overturning: Results from the modeling eddies in the Southern Ocean (MESO) project. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 36(12), 2232-2252.
  • Hallberg, Robert W., and Alistair Adcroft, April 2009: Reconciling estimates of the free surface height in Lagrangian vertical coordinate ocean models with mode-split time stepping. Ocean Modelling, 29(1), DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.02.008.
  • Henson, S. A., D. Raitsos, J. P. Dunne, and A. McQuatters-Gollop,2009: Decadal variability in biogeochemical models: Comparison with a 50-year ocean colour dataset. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L21601.
  • Horowitz, L. W., et al., 2003: A global simulation of tropospheric ozone and related tracers: Description and evaluation of MOZART, version 2. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 108, 4784.
  • Ilicak, M., A. J. Adcroft, S. M. Griffies, and R. W. Hallberg, 2012: Spurious dianeutral mixing and the role of momentum closure. Ocean Modelling, 45-46, 37-58.
  • Jackson, L, Robert W Hallberg, and Sonya Legg, May 2008: A Parameterization of shear-driven turbulence for ocean climate models. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 38(5), DOI:10.1175/2007JPO3779.1.
  • Levy II, H., L. W. Horowitz, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Y. Ming, J.-C. Golaz, V. Naik, and V. Ramaswamy, 2013: The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects in past and future climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50192.
  • Milly, P. C. D., and A. B. Shmakin, 2002: Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part I: the land dynamics (LaD) model. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 3, 283-299.
  • Legg, Sonya, Tal Ezer, Stephen M Griffies, Robert W Hallberg, and L Jackson, et al., May 2009: Improving oceanic overflow representation in climate models: The gravity current entrainment climate process team. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(5), DOI:10.1175/2008BAMS2667.1.
  • Legg, Sonya, L Jackson, and Robert W Hallberg, 2008: Eddy-resolving modeling of overflows In Ocean Modeling in an Eddying Regime, Geophysical Monograph 177, M. W. Hecht, and H. Hasumi, eds., Washington, DC, American Geophysical Union, 63-82.
  • Levy II, Hiram, Larry W Horowitz, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, Yi Ming, J-C Golaz, Vaishali Naik, and V Ramaswamy, May 2013: The Roles of Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects in Past and Future Climate Change. Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, DOI:10.1002/jgrd.50192.
  • Liu, J., D. L. Mauzerall, L. W. Horowitz, P. Ginoux, and A. M. Fiore, 2009: Evaluating inter-continental transport of 31 fine aerosols: (1) Methodology, global aerosol distribution and optical depth. Atmospheric Environment, 43, 32 4327-4338.
  • Lu, J., G. A. Vecchi, and T. Reichler, 2007: Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L06805.
  • MacKinnon, J., et al., 2009: Using global arrays to investigate internal-waves and mixing. OceanObs09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society, Venice, Italy, ESAC
  • Meehl, G. A., G. J. Boer, C. Covey, M. Latif, and R. J. Stouffer, 2000: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81, 313-318.
  • Meehl, G. A., et al., 2007: The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset – A new era in climate change research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, 1383-1394.
  • Msadek, Rym, W E Johns, S G Yeager, G Danabasoglu, Thomas L Delworth, and Anthony Rosati, June 2013: The Atlantic Meridional Heat transport at 26.5° N and its relationship with the MOC in the RAPID array and the GFDL and NCAR coupled models. Journal of Climate, 26(12), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00081.1.
  • Ocko, I. B., V. Ramaswamy, P. Ginoux, Y. Ming, and L. W. Horowitz, 2012: Sensitivity of scattering and absorbing aerosol direct radiative forcing to physical climate factors. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D20203.
  • Russell, J. L., R. J. Stouffer, and K. W. Dixon, 2006: Intercomparison of the Southern Ocean circulations in IPCC coupled model control simulations. Journal of Climate, 19, 4560-4575.
  • Seidel, D J., Y Zhang, A Beljaars, J-C Golaz, A R Jacobson, and B Medeiros, September 2012: Climatology of the planetary boundary layer over the continental United States and Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D17106, DOI:10.1029/2012JD018143.
  • Torres, O., P. K. Bhartia, J. R. Herman, A. Sinyuk, P. Ginoux, and B. Holben, 2002: A long-term record of aerosol optical depth from TOMS observations and comparison to AERONET measurements. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 59, 398-413.
  • Vecchi, G. A., K. L. Swanson, and B. J. Soden, 2008: CLIMATE CHANGE Whither Hurricane Activity? Science, 322, 687-689.
  • Zhang, R., et al., 2013: Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-12-0331.1.

CHAPTER 10 – Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional

  • Gregory, J. M., R. J. Stouffer, S. C. B. Raper, P. A. Stott, and N. A. Rayner, 2002: An observationally based estimate of the climate sensitivity. Journal of Climate, 15, 3117-3121.
  • Knutson, T. R., F. Zeng, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2013b: Multimodel assessment of regional surface temperature trends: CMIP3 and CMIP5 twentieth-century simulations. Journal of Climate, 26(22), 8709-8743. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00567.1
  • Mahajan, S., R. Zhang, and T. L. Delworth, 2011: Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC on Arctic surface air temperature and sea ice variability. Journal of Climate, 24, 6573–6581.
  • Villarini, G., and G. A. Vecchi, 2012: Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models. Nature Climate Change, 2, 604–607.
  • Villarini, G., and G. A. Vecchi, 2013: Projected increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity from CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate, 26, 3231-3240.
  • Young, P. J., et al., 2013: Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone
  • Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2009: A new method for attributing climate variations over the Atlantic Hurricane Basin’s main development region. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L06701.

CHAPTER 11 – Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability

  • Bollasina, M. A., Y. Ming, and V. Ramaswamy, 2011: Anthropogenic Aerosols and the Weakening of the South Asian 42 Summer Monsoon. Science, doi:10.1126/science.1204994.
  • DelSole, T, Xiaosong Yang, and M K Tippett, January 2013: Is unequal weighting significantly better than equal weighting for multi-model forecasting? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139(670), DOI:10.1002/qj.1961.
  • DiNezio, P., G. A. Vecchi, and A. Clement, 2013: Detectability of Changes in the Walker Circulation in Response to Global Warming. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00531.1.
  • Fiore, A. M., J. J. West, L. W. Horowitz, V. Naik, and M. D. Schwarzkopf, 2008: Characterizing the tropospheric ozone response to methane emission controls and the benefits to climate and air quality. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D08307.
  • Fiore, A. M., D. J. Jacob, B. D. Field, D. G. Streets, S. D. Fernandes, and C. Jang, 2002: Linking ozone pollution and climate change: The case for controlling methane. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1919.
  • Fiore, A. M., et al., 2012: Global air quality and climate. Chemical Society Reviews, 41, 6663-6683.
  • Gutowski, W. J., et al., 2008: Causes of observed changes in extremes and projections of future changes. Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S Pacific Islands, T.R. Karl, G.A. Meehl, D.M. Christopher, S.J. Hassol, A.M. Waple, and W. L. Murray, Eds., U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research.
  • John, J. G., A. M. Fiore, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, and J. P. Dunne, 2012: Climate versus emission drivers of methane lifetime from 1860–2100. Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12.
  • Knutson, T., and S. Manabe, 1995: Time-mean response over the tropical Pacific to increased CO2 in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, Journal of Climate, 2181-2199.
  • Knutson, T. R., et al., 2013a: Dynamical downscaling projections of 21st century Atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-based scenarios. Journal of Climate, 26(17), 6591-6617. DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1.
  • Knutson, T. R., et al., 2006: Assessment of Twentieth-Century regional surface temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models. J. Climate, 19(9), DOI:10.1175/JCLI3709.1.
  • Lin, C. Y. C., D. J. Jacob, and A. M. Fiore, 2001: Trends in exceedances of the ozone air quality standard in the continental United States, 1980-1998. Atmospheric Environment, 35, 3217-3228.
  • Manabe, S., R. J. Stouffer, M. J. Spelman, and K. Bryan, 1991: Transient Responses of a Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric Co2 .1. Annual Mean Response. Journal of Climate, 4, 785-818.
  • Msadek, Rym, Keith W Dixon, Thomas L Delworth, and William J Hurlin, October 2010: Assessing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and associated fingerprints. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L19608, DOI:10.1029/2010GL044517.
  • Meehl, G. A., et al., 2009: DECADAL PREDICTION Can It Be Skillful? Bulletin of the American Meteorological
  • Society, 90, 1467-1485
  • Meehl, G A., Rym Msadek, and Gabriel A Vecchi, et al., in press: Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1. 4/13.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, and G. Persad, 2010: Two opposing effects of absorbing aerosols on global-mean precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L13701.
  • Prather, M., M. Gauss, T. Berntsen, et al., 2003: Fresh air in the 21st century? Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1100, doi:10.1029/2002GL016285,
  • Prather, M., Ehhalt, D., et al., 2001: Chapter 4, Atmospheric Chemistry and Greenhouse Gases, in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, ed. J. T. Houghton et al., pp.239-287. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
  • Rasmussen, D. J., A. M. Fiore, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, S. J. McGinnis, and M. G. Schultz, 2012: Surface ozone-temperature relationships in the eastern US: A monthly climatology for evaluating chemistry-climate models. Atmospheric Environment, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.11.021
  • Steiner, A. L., A. J. Davis, S. Sillman, R. C. Owen, A. M. Michalak, and A. M. Fiore, 2010: Observed suppression of ozone formation at extremely high temperatures due to chemical and biophysical feedbacks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.1008336107
  • Stenchikov, G., K. Hamilton, R. Stouffer, A. Robock, V. Ramaswamy, B. Santer, and H. Graf, 2006: Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in the IPCC AR4 climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres, 111.
  • Turner, A. J., A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, and M. Bauer, 2013: Summertime cyclones over the Great Lakes Storm Track from 1860-2100: variability, trends, and association with ozone pollution. Atmos Chem Phys, 13, 565-578.
  • Vecchi, G.A., R. Msadek, W. Anderson, Y.-S. Chang, T. Delworth, K. Dixon, R. Gudgel, A. Rosati, W. Stern, G. Villarini, A. Wittenberg, X. Yang, F. Zeng, R. Zhang and S. Zhang (2013): Multi-year Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and Limitations. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00464.1
  • Vecchi, G. A., et al., 2012: Technical comment on “Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5ºN. Science, 338, 604.
  • Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, M. Zhao, and J. A. Smith, 2011: North Atlantic Tropical Storm Frequency Response to Anthropogenic Forcing: Projections and Sources of Uncertainty. Journal of Climate, 24, 3224-3238.
  • West, J. J., A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, and D. L. Mauzerall, 2006: Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103, 3988-3993.
  • Wild, O., A.M. Fiore et al., 2012: Modelling future changes in surface ozone: a parameterized approach. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12, 2037-2054.
  • Yang, Xiaosong, Anthony Rosati, Shaoqing Zhang, Thomas L Delworth, Rich Gudgel, Rong Zhang, Gabriel A Vecchi, Whit G Anderson, You-Soon Chang, T DelSole, Keith W Dixon, Rym Msadek, William F Stern, Andrew T Wittenberg, and Fanrong Zeng, January 2013: A predictable AMO-like pattern in GFDL’s fully-coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system. Journal of Climate, 26(2), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1.
  • Yin, J. J., M. E. Schlesinger, and R. J. Stouffer, 2009: Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States. Nature Geoscience, 2, 262-266.
  • Yin, J. J., S. M. Griffies, and R. J. Stouffer, 2010: Spatial Variability of Sea Level Rise in Twenty-First Century Projections. Journal of Climate, 23, 4585-4607.

CHAPTER 12 – Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility

  • Bollasina, M. A., Y. Ming, and V. Ramaswamy, 2011: Anthropogenic Aerosols and the Weakening of the South Asian 42 Summer Monsoon. Science, doi:10.1126/science.1204994.
  • Levy II, H., L. W. Horowitz, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Y. Ming, J.-C. Golaz, V. Naik, and V. Ramaswamy, 2013: The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects in past and future climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50192.
  • Li, F., J. Austin, and J. Wilson, 2008: The strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in a changing climate: Coupled chemistry-climate model simulations. Journal of Climate, 21, 40-57.
  • Dunne, J. P., R. J. Stouffer, and J. G. John, 2013: Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1827.
  • Manabe, S., and R. Stouffer, 1980: Sensitivity of a global climate model to an increase of CO2 concentration in the
  • atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 85, 5529-5554.
  • Manabe, S., and R. Stouffer, 1994: Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon-dioxide. Journal of Climate, 7, 5-23.
  • Milly, P., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R. Hirsch, Z. Kundzewicz, D. Lettenmaier, and R. Stouffer, 2008: Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science, 319, 573-574.
  • Ming, Y., V. Ramaswamy, and G. Persad, 2010: Two opposing effects of absorbing aerosols on global-mean precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L13701.
  • Seager, R., and G. A. Vecchi, 2010: Greenhouse warming and the 21st century hydroclimate of the southwestern North America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107, 21277-21282.
  • Seager, R., et al., 2007: Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science, 316, 1181-1184.
  • Stouffer, R., 2004: Time scales of climate response. Journal of Climate, 17, 209-217.
  • Stouffer, R. J., and S. Manabe, 1999: Response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide: Sensitivity to the rate of increase. Journal of Climate, 12, 2224-2237.
  • Wetherald, R. T., R. J. Stouffer, and K. W. Dixon, 2001: Committed warming and its implications for climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 1535-1538.
  • Yin, J., J. Overpeck, S. Griffies, A. Hu, J. Russell, and R. Stouffer, 2011: Different magnitudes of projected subsurface ocean warming around Greenland and Antarctica. Nature Geoscience, 4, 524-528.
  • Zhang, R., 2010: Northward intensification of anthropogenically forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L24603.

CHAPTER 13 – Sea Level Change

  • Delworth, T. L., and T. R. Knutson, 2000: Simulation of early 20th century global warming. Science, 287, 2246-2250.
  • Fan, Y., I. M. Held, S. J. Lin, and X. and Wang, 2013: Ocean warming effect on surface gravity wave climate change for the end of the 21st century. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00410.1.
  • Goldberg, D N., C M Little, Olga V Sergienko, Anand Gnanadesikan, Robert W Hallberg, and M Oppenheimer, June 2012: Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model, Part 2: Sensitivity to external forcings. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, F02038, DOI:10.1029/2011JF002247.
  • Hemer, M. A., Y. Fan, N. Mori, A. Semedo, and X. L. Wang, 2013: Projected future changes in wind-wave climate in a multi-model ensemble. Nature Climate Change, 3, 471-476.
  • Kopp, R. E., J. X. Mitrovica, S. M. Griffies, J. J. Yin, C. C. Hay, and R. J. Stouffer, 2010: The impact of Greenland melt on local sea levels: a partially coupled analysis of dynamic and static equilibrium effects in idealized water-hosing experiments. Climatic Change, 103, 619-625.
  • Losch, M., A. Adcroft, and J. M. Campin, 2004: How sensitive are coarse general circulation models to fundamental approximations in the equations of motion? Journal of Physical Oceanography, 34, 306-319.
  • Lettenmaier, D. P., and P. C. D. Milly, 2009: Land waters and sea level. Nature Geoscience, 2, 452-454.
  • Martin, T., and A. Adcroft, 2010: Parameterizing the fresh-water flux from land ice to ocean with interactive icebergs in a coupled climate model. Ocean Modelling, 34, 111-124.
  • Milly, P. C. D., A. Cazenave, and M. C. Gennero, 2003: Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 100, 13158-13161.
  • Milly, P. C. D., et al., 2010: Terrestrial water-storage contributions to sea-level rise and variability. Understanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability, J. A. Church, P. L. Woodworth, T. Aarup, and W. S. Wildon, Eds., Wiley-Blackwell, 226-255.
  • Raper, S. C. B., J. M. Gregory, and R. J. Stouffer, 2002: The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake on AOGCM transient temperature response. Journal of Climate, 15, 124-130.
  • Rugenstein, M., M. Winton, R. J. Stouffer, S. M. Griffies, and R. W. Hallberg, 2013: Northern high latitude heat budget decomposition and transient warming. Journal of Climate, 26.

CHAPTER 14 – Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change

  • Bollasina, M. A., and Y. Ming, 2013: The general circulation model precipitation bias over the southwestern equatorial Indian Ocean and its implications for simulating the South Asian monsoon. Climate Dynamics, 40, 823-838.
  • Bollasina, M. A., Y. Ming, and V. Ramaswamy, 2011: Anthropogenic Aerosols and the Weakening of the South Asian 42 Summer Monsoon. Science, doi:10.1126/science.1204994.
  • Collins, M., et al., 2010: The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific ocean and El Niño. Nature Geoscience, 3, 391-397.
  • Held, I., T. Delworth, J. Lu, K. Findell, and T. Knutson, 2005: Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 17891-17896.
  • Knutson, T. R., and R. E. Tuleya, 2004: Impact of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization. Journal of Climate, 17, 3477-3495.
  • Lee, T.-C., T. R. Knutson, H. Kamahori, and M. Ying, 2012: Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin. Part I: Past observations. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 1, 213-230.
  • Vecchi, G., and A. Wittenberg, 2010: El Nino and our future climate: where do we stand? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change, 1, 260-270.
  • Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007b: Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L08702.
  • Ying, M., T. R. Knutson, H. Kamahori, and T.-C. Lee, 2012: Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin. Part II: Late twenty-first century projections. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 1, 231-241.
  • Zhao, M., I. M. Held, S. J. Lin, and G. A. Vecchi, 2009: Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM. Journal of Climate, 22, 6653-6678.
  • Zheng, X. T., S. P. Xie, G. A. Vecchi, Q. Y. Liu, and J. Hafner, 2010: Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: Analysis of ocean-atmospheric feedbacks in a coupled model. Journal of Climate, 23, 1240-1253.

Contributing Author

  • Ginoux: Chapter 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
  • Knutson: Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional Chapter 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
  • Vecchi: Contributing Author to Chapter 9 (valuation of Climate Models)
  • Wittenberg: Contributing Author” on Ch. 14:

Expert Reviewer:

  • Massimo Bollasina
  • Leo J. Donner
  • Paul Ginoux
  • Stephen M. Griffies
  • Robert W. Hallberg
  • Larry W. Horowitz
  • Jasmin John
  • Sonya Legg
  • Hiram Levy III
  • Rym Msadek
  • Yi Ming
  • Vaishali Naik
  • Lori Sentman
  • Ronald J. Stouffer
  • Andrew Wittenberg
  • Rong Zhang