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Keith W. Dixon

research meteorologist
Team Lead – Empirical Statistical Downscaling Team
Deputy Division Head of the GFDL Marine Ecosystems & Downscaling Division
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration
US Department of Commerce
Princeton, New Jersey USA

contact info:


postal address:
Keith Dixon
201 Forrestal Road
Princeton, NJ 08540-6649

[ Keith Dixon, NOAA/OAR/GFDL ]


climate research activities @ NOAA/OAR/GFDL

GFDL’s Empirical Statistical Downscaling (ESD) Research Team’s efforts:

GFDL ESD TEAM WEB PAGE describing our team’s efforts to systematically evaluate the performance characteristics of Empirical Statistical Downscaling methods.


  • Lanzante JR, KW Dixon, MJ Nath, CE Whitlock, and D Adams-Smith (2018): Some Pitfalls in Statistical Downscaling of Future Climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: 0.1175/BAMS-D-17-0046.1.
  • Dixon KW, JR Lanzante, MJ Nath MJ, K. Hayhoe, A Stoner, A Radhakrishnan, V Balaji V, CF Gaitán (2016): Evaluating the stationarity assumption in statistically downscaled climate projections: is past performance an indicator of future results? Climatic Change. DOI:10.1007/s10584-016-1598-0

These two papers serve as foundational work and as case studies of how one can evaluate key aspects of bias correction and statistical downscaling method performance using a perfect model framework. The basic (and often overlooked) question being whether and to what extent bias correction and statistical downscaling skill degrades when applied to future scenarios. The eye-opening (to some) answer illustrated in these journal articles is, It can matter a lot, but also can vary geographically, seasonally, and with the amount of climate change being projected. And the differences can be large enough to alter conclusions being drawn for adaptation planning purposes.

Some other publications…

  • Drenkard, EJ, C. Stock, AC Ross, KW Dixon and Coauthors (2021): Next-generation regional ocean projections for living marine resource management in a changing climate. ICES Journal of Marine Science, DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsab100.
  • Ross, AC, CA Stock, D Adams-Smith, KW Dixon, KL Findell, VS Saba, and B Vogt, (2021): Anthropogenic Influences on Extreme Annual Streamflow into Chesapeake Bay from the Susquehanna River. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(1), DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0129.1.
  • Wootten, AM, KW Dixon, DJ Adams‐Smith, and RA McPherson (2021): Statistically downscaled precipitation sensitivity to gridded observation data and downscaling technique. Int J Climatol, DOI: 10.1002/joc.6716.


  • 2023 American Meteorological Society Meeting (Jan 2023) On the Representation of the Urban Heat Island in Climate Data Products used in Heat and Health Studies, Keith W Dixon, B. Le Roy, D Adams-Nath, and JR Lanzante [Abstract]
  • 2020 American Meteorological Society Meeting (Jan 2020) Matching Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections to Northeastern U.S. Heat Application Sensitivities, Keith W Dixon, D Adams-Nath, and J Lanzante, E Mecray [Abstract  & Recorded Presentation]
  • 2019 European Meteorological Society Meeting (Sept 2019) Considering Climate Projection Uncertainties in the Science and Decision Realms, Keith Dixon and Ellen Mecray [Abstract]
  • 2018 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting (Dec 2018) Revealing and Assessing Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction Method Uncertainties, Keith W Dixon, D Adams-Nath, and JR Lanzante [Invited Abstract]
  • 2017 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting (Dec 2017) Examining the Performance of Statistical Downscaling Methods: Toward Matching Applications to Data Products, Keith W Dixon, D Adams-Nath, and JR Lanzante. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32046.00326 [Abstract & PDF of Poster]
  • 2017 American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (Jan 2017) Exploring the Sensitivity of Projected Climate Indices to Statistical Downscaling Choices Keith W Dixon, MJ Nath, and J Lanzante [Abstract & Recorded Presentation]
  • 2016 American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (Jan 2016) Comparing Statistical Downscaling Method Performance: Different Methods, Different Metrics, Different Time Periods, John Lanzante and Keith W Dixon [Abstract & Recorded Presentation]
  • 2015 Joint Assembly, Montreal, Canada (May 2015) Evaluating Statistical Downscaling Performance Under Changing Climatic Conditions, Keith W Dixon, JR Lanzante, CF Gaitan, K Hayhoe and AMK Stoner [Abstract]

select climate science outreach & communications activities

[2014 Forever Stamp]