GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Model Projections of the Changes in Atmospheric Circulation and Surface Climate over North America, North Atlantic and Europe in the 21st Century

August 19th, 2013

Ngar-Cheung Lau, Jeffrey J. Ploshay. Journal: Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00151.1

Summary

The impacts of climate change on the North America-North Atlantic-Europe sector are studied using a coupled general circulation model (CM3) and a high-resolution atmosphere-only model (HiRAM), both developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Long-term changes in surface temperature, precipitation and storminess patterns over Europe and the North Atlantic are projected.

In winter, the model experiments project a drying trend over southern Europe, and a strong warming trend over northwestern Europe, towards the end of the 21st century.

In summer, dry and warm conditions are projected over Europe within the 35°-50°N zone.

Projected trends of precipitation (upper panels) and surface air temperature (lower panels) for the winter (left panels) and summer (right panels) seasons. Results are based on simulations with the GFDL high-resolution atmospheric model (HiRAM) for the historical (1979-2008) period, and for the 2086-2095 period under the RCP8.5 climate scenario.
Projected trends of precipitation (upper panels) and surface air temperature (lower panels) for the winter (left panels) and summer (right panels) seasons. Results are based on simulations with the GFDL high-resolution atmospheric model (HiRAM) for the historical (1979-2008) period, and for the 2086-2095 period under the RCP8.5 climate scenario.