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SPEAR: Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research

SPEAR was developed as a next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection. In early 2021, SPEAR real-time seasonal predictions will be made available as part of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and SPEAR decadal predictions will be made available as part of an international decadal prediction program through the UK Met Office (decadal forecast). Additional data from the SPEAR large ensemble, described in Delworth et al. (2020) will also be made available through the GFDL Data Portal in March 2021 (note: subset data from published papers to date is available at publication with details in each paper). Previously, the GFDL CM2.1 and FLOR models were used for real-time seasonal-to-decadal prediction and research.

The SPEAR models share many components with the recently developed GFDL CM4 (Held et al., 2019) model but with configuration and physical parameterization choices in SPEAR geared toward physical climate prediction and projection on seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales. Present configurations of SPEAR contain the following characteristics:

Configuration Use Atmosphere Land Ocean Sea Ice
SPEAR_LO Seasonal to decadal (S2D) research; decadal predictions to be delivered to international program through UK MetOffice starting in 2021 AM4.0, (1°) 33 levels (Zhao et al. 2018a; Zhao et al. 2018b) LM4.0, (1°), dynamic vegetation (Zhao et al. 2018a; Zhao et al. 2018b; Milly et al. 2014) MOM6, (1°), tropical refinement to (0.3°), 75 levels, hybrid vertical coordinate SIS2 sea ice (Adcroft et al., 2019)
SPEAR_MED S2D research; seasonal predictions to be delivered to NMME and shared with various seasonal partners (e.g. NCEP) starting in 2021 AM4.0, (0.5°) 33 levels (Zhao et al. 2018a; Zhao et al. 2018b) Zhao et al. 2018a; Zhao et al. 22018b LM4.0, (0.5°), dynamic vegetation (Zhao et al. 2018a; Zhao et al. 2018b; Milly et al. 2014) MOM6, (1°), tropical refinement to (0.3°), 75 levels, hybrid vertical coordinate SIS2 sea ice (Adcroft et al., 2019)
SPEAR_HI S2D research AM4.0, (0.25°) 33 levels (Zhao et al. 2018a; Zhao et al. 2018b) LM4.0, (0.25°), dynamic vegetation (Zhao et al. 2018a; Zhao et al. 2018b; Milly et al. 2014) MOM6, (1°), tropical refinement to (0.3°), 75 levels, hybrid vertical coordinate SIS2 sea ice (Adcroft et al., 2019)

Note: horizontal resolution provided in parentheses.

References Describing SPEAR:

References using SPEAR data:

References Describing SPEAR Components / GFDL Model Development: