News
Predicting Future Northeast Ocean Conditions: Forecast Debuts in 2026 State of the Ecosystem Reports
June 29, 2026 – Fishermen, fisheries managers, and scientists have observed changes in our oceans that are impacting the location and growth of fish stocks. Until recently, there was no reliable way to predict these changes. This year, the 2026 Mid-Atlantic and New England State of the Ecosystem reports contain the first operational seasonal and decadal ocean forecasts for U.S. coastal fisheries regions.
Research Highlight
Compound Drivers of Rising Ozone Extremes in the North China Plain (2013–2023): Aerosol Decline, Hot Droughts, Afforestation-Driven BVOCs, and Reduced Vegetation Uptake
June 18, 2026 – Surface ozone is an important air pollutant that affects air quality and human health. It forms through chemical reactions involving sunlight, temperature, and precursor gases in the atmosphere. Interactions with atmospheric particles and vegetation can also influence how ozone forms and accumulates.
News
GFDL’s Legacy of Awards and Honors
March 18, 2025 – GFDL has a rich legacy of excellence and innovation, which is reflected in the exceptional achievements of our scientists and the recognition they have received. The lab has been creating opportunities for exploration and collaboration for more than 65 years and our scientists are among the most influential and decorated in climate science. We are proud to be home to dozens of recipients of prestigious awards, including the Nobel Prize and the Crafoord Prize, as well as members of the National Academy of Sciences. Scientists listed here performed their award-winning work at GFDL.
Award
GFDL Led Study Among Most-Viewed Papers for Leading Scientific Journal in 2024
June 8, 2026 – A study led by Vimal Koul, a postdoctoral scholar in NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System with Princeton University, was recognized as one of the Top 10% Most-Viewed Papers published in Geophysical Research Letters in 2024. The paper, “A Predicted Pause in the Rapid Warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf in the Coming Decade,” was co-authored by Andrew C. Ross, Charles Stock, Thomas Delworth, Andrew Wittenberg, and Liping Zhang (UCAR).
Research Highlight
Impacts of Eastern Arctic Eurasian Basin Water Properties on the AMOC and Beaufort Sea Atlantic Water Layer
June 1, 2026 – The Arctic Ocean exchanges heat and salt with the North Atlantic through ocean currents that pass through Arctic–Atlantic gateway regions. These exchanges may contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a large-scale ocean circulation that transports heat northward across the Atlantic basin. However, the impacts of the Arctic Eurasian Basin water mass properties on the AMOC and the Atlantic Water layer in the Canadian Basin and Beaufort Sea remain unclear and less explored.
Research Highlight
Assessing Clouds in GFDL’s AM4.0 Using Alternative Microphysical Representations and Satellite Simulator Diagnostics
May 13, 2026 – Clouds affect Earth’s climate by influencing how sunlight and heat move through the atmosphere, as well as by producing precipitation. Because many cloud processes occur at scales smaller than the resolution of climate models, these processes are represented using simplified descriptions of cloud formation and evolution, and precipitation development. In this study, the authors examine how different representations of cloud microphysics affect simulated cloud properties in the GFDL atmospheric model AM4.0.
Research Highlight
Quantifying Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to Atmospheric Chemistry and Composition Representations in GFDL-CM4.0 and GFDL-ESM4.1
April 14, 2026 – Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) measures the long-term global surface temperature response to a doubling of preindustrial carbon dioxide. While greenhouse gases are the primary driver of warming, atmospheric aerosols and chemical processes also influence how the climate system responds. In this study, GFDL scientists used simplified but closely related configurations of two GFDL models to isolate the role of atmospheric chemistry and composition.
Research Highlight
Evolving Synchronization of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension in a Changing Climate
March 31, 2026 – The Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic and the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension in the North Pacific are western boundary current systems that transport heat and shape regional ocean conditions. Variations in sea surface temperature in these regions can interact with atmospheric circulation and affect climate variability across the Northern Hemisphere. The authors examine observations and climate model simulations to investigate how variability in these two ocean regions is connected.
News
GFDL Partnership Strengthens EPIC’s Container Strategy for Community Modeling Innovation
March 18, 2026 – GFDL partnered with NOAA’s Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC) to help modernize how modeling containers are built and shared across the Unified Forecast System community. A new two-stage architecture improves portability, performance, and accessibility—making it easier for researchers to develop and run models across diverse computing environments.
Research Highlight
On the Atlantic Extratropical-Tropical Teleconnection in Response to External Freshwater Forcing
March 11, 2026 – Changes in tropical rainfall can strongly affect water resources, agriculture, and communities across regions influenced by the Atlantic Ocean circulation. In this study, the authors used a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean model and targeted freshwater-forcing experiments to understand how changes in Atlantic Ocean circulation influence tropical rainfall.
Research Highlight
Identifying Sources of Predictability for Atmospheric Dryness in the Southwestern United States
February 26, 2026 – Fire seasons in the western United States are becoming longer, drier, and more intense. As rising temperatures and lower humidity are increasing the atmosphere’s evaporative demand, seasonal forecasts of atmospheric dryness are gaining importance for wildfire preparedness. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a measure based on temperature and humidity, serves as a useful indicator of fuel drying and fire-weather risk.