Tom Knutson – Research Interests

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change:

• Global warming and hurricanes (Overview web page, Updated Mar. 29, 2021)
• Global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification.  (Nature Communications, 2022) by Bhatia et al.
• Dynamical downscaling projections of late 21st century U.S. landfalling
  hurricane activity   (Climatic Change, 2022) by Knutson et al. View-only version here. Download full pre-publication version here.
• Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late 19th century.  (Nature Communications, 2021) by G. Vecchi, C. Landsea, W. Zhang, G. Villarini, and T. R. Knutson.
• Tropical cyclone motion in a changing climate (Science Advances, 2020), by G. Zhang, et al.
• Causes of large projected increases in hurricane precipitation rates with global warming (npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2019) by M. Liu et al.
• Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: roles of atmospheric resolution, synoptic variability and background climate changes. (Climate Dynamics, 2019) by Vecchi et al.
• Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates.  (Nature Communications, 2018) by Bhatia et al.
• Atlantic major hurricane frequency:  Its recent decline and the role of the Atlantic overturning circulation.  (Nature Communications, 2017) by X. Yan, R. Zhang, and T. Knutson
• Impact of upper tropospheric temperature anomalies and vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone evolution using an idealized version of the operational GFDL hurricane model.  (Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2016) by R. Tuleya, M. Bender, T. Knutson, J. Sirutis, B. Thomas, and I. Ginis
• Intense tropical cyclone activity:  Global projections for the late 21st century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios (J. Climate, 2015).
• Projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones using regional models (Climate Dynamics, 2015), by D. Wright, T. Knutson, and J. Smith.
• Atlantic hurricane activity: 21st century dynamical downscaling projections using CMIP3 and CMIP5 models (J. Climate, 2013).  See Research Highlight page (summary of article).
• Intense Atlantic hurricanes:  modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on their frequency. Science, 2010, by M. Bender, T. Knutson, et al.)
• Past Atlantic hurricane activity:  How well do we know it? A web site on adjusting for “missing storms” in the past Atlantic hurricane data.  Adjusted datasets are available here, based on work by Vecchi and Knutson.
• Simulated hurricane animations web page

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change:

• Sea Level Pressure Trends: Model-Based Assessment of Detection, Attribution, and Consistency with CMIP5 Historical Simulations.  Journal of Climate (2020)
• Precipitation trends over land regions: model assessment of detectable human influences and possible low bias in model trends  Journal of Climate (2018) Supplemental Material
• Streamflow timing over North America: Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring timing.  Journal of Climate (2018) by Jonghun Kam, T. R. Knutson, and P. C. D. Milly
• Record global warmth in 2016:  CMIP5 model-based assessment of anthropogenic influence.  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2017)
• Summertime heat stress:  Detection of anthropogenic influence. Climatic Change (2016). Supplemental Material.
• Extreme annual-mean warmth during 2013 over regions of Australia and the western tropical Pacific:  a multimodel assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2014).
• Seasonal and annual mean precipitation extremes occurring during 2013: A U.S. focused analysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2014). See also the Research Highlight. page.
• Arctic sea ice extent in 2012:  The role of global climate change.  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2013)
• Regional surface temperature trends during the 20th century:  assessment of CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations (J. Climate, 2013).  See Research Highlight page (summary of article).
• Early 20th century global warming:  climate model simulations (Delworth and Knutson, Science, 2000)
• Coral bleaching (Donner et al. PNAS 2007)
• Land cover change affects on climate (Findell et al., J. Climate, 2006)
• Sahel drought (Held et al. PNAS paper)

Climate Variability

• A Multivariate AMV Index and Associated Discrepancies Between Observed and CMIP5 Externally Forced AMV. Geophysical Research Letters (2019) by X. Yan, R. Zhang, and T. Knutson.
• Underestimated AMOC Variability and Implications for AMV and Predictability in CMIP Models.  Geophysical Research Letters (2018) by X. Yan, R. Zhang, and T. Knutson
• Atlantic major hurricane frequency:  Its recent decline and the role of the Atlantic overturning circulation.  (Nature Communications, 2017) by X. Yan, R. Zhang, and T. Knutson
• Multidecadal climate variability:  Observed and simulated fingerprints, and their contributions to periods of global SST stagnation. Journal of Climate (2017) by M. Barcikowska, T. Knutson, and R. Zhang.
• Observed Barents Sea winter sea ice decline:  On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model changes.  Nature Communications (2017) by Dawei Li, Rong Zhang, and T. Knutson
• Global warming hiatus:  prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century. Nature Communications (2016). Supplemental Material.
• Early 20th century global warming:  climate model simulations (Delworth and Knutson, Science, 2000)
• Tropical Pacific decadal variability and trends (Knutson and Manabe, J. Climate, 1998)
• Past Atlantic hurricane activity:  How well do we know it? A web site on adjusting for “missing storms” in the past Atlantic hurricane data.  Adjusted datasets are available here.