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GFDL Newsletter Archive

The GFDL Bulletin – Research Highlights from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Community. Advancing the Modeling, Understanding, and Prediction of Weather and Climate.

Summer 2025

  • Western United States wintertime precipitation response to warming: an assessment in a global storm-resolving model
  • Toward transparency and consistency: an open-source optics parameterization for clouds and precipitation
  • Predictable patterns of seasonal atmospheric river variability over North America during winter
  • Exploring multiyear-to-decadal North Atlantic sea level predictability and prediction using machine learning
  • A link between U.S. East Coast sea level and North Atlantic subtropical ocean heat content

Winter 2024-2025

  • Bridging the gap between global weather prediction and global storm‐resolving simulation: introducing the GFDL 6.5‐km SHiELD
  • A global–land snow scheme (GLASS) v1.0 for the GFDL Earth System Model: formulation and evaluation at instrumented sites
  • Weakening of the AMOC and strengthening of Labrador Sea deep convection in response to external freshwater forcing
  • Seasonal predictions of summer compound humid heat extremes in the southeastern United States driven by sea surface temperatures

Fall 2024

  • Crucial role of sea surface temperature warming patterns in near-term high-impact weather and climate projection
  • Skillful seasonal prediction of wind energy resources in the contiguous United States
  • Causes and multiyear predictability of the rapid acceleration of U.S. Southeast Sea level rise after 2010
  • A predicted pause in the rapid warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf in the coming decade

Spring-Summer 2024

  • The GFDL variable-resolution global chemistry-climate model for research at the nexus of US climate and air quality extremes
  • Greenhouse gas forcing and climate feedback signatures identified in hyperspectral infrared satellite observations
  • Changes in United States summer temperatures revealed by explainable neural networks
  • Improvements in September Arctic sea ice predictions via assimilation of summer CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness observations
  • Enhanced future vegetation growth with elevated carbon dioxide concentrations could increase fire activity
  • Linking global terrestrial and ocean biogeochemistry with process-based, coupled freshwater algae-nutrient-solid dynamics in LM3-FANSY v1.0

Winter 2023-2024

  • Poleward intensification of midlatitude extreme winds under warmer climate
  • Anthropogenic forcing changes coastal tropical cyclone frequency
  • Implementation and evaluation of a machine learned mesoscale eddy parameterization into a numerical ocean circulation model
  • Skillful multiyear to decadal predictions of sea level in the North Atlantic Ocean and U.S. East Coast
  • The importance of dynamic iron deposition in projecting climate change impacts on Pacific Ocean biogeochemistry
  • A high-resolution physical-biogeochemical model for marine resource applications in the Northwest Atlantic (MOM6-COBALT-NWA12v1.0)

Fall 2023

  • An emerging Asian aerosol dipole pattern reshapes the Asian summer monsoon and exacerbates northern hemisphere warming
  • Coherent Mechanistic Patterns of Tropical Land Hydroclimate Changes
  • Impacts of the North Atlantic biases on the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere over the extratropical North Pacific
  • The role of upper-ocean variations of the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension in seasonal-to-decadal air-sea heat flux variability

Summer 2023

  • Seasonal prediction of North American wintertime cold extremes in the NOAA/GFDL SPEAR forecast system
  • A global survey of rotating convective updrafts in the GFDL X-SHiELD 2021 global storm resolving model
  • The long-term trends of global land precipitation in GFDL’s CM4 and ESM4 climate models
  • Process-oriented diagnostics: principles, practice, community development and common standards

Spring 2023

  • Increases in extreme precipitation over the northeast United States using high-resolution climate model simulations
  • Assessment and constraint of mesozooplankton in CMIP6 earth system models
  • Forcing, cloud feedbacks, cloud masking, and internal variability in the cloud radiative effect satellite record
  • A mechanistic sea spray generation function based on the sea state and the physics of bubble bursting

Winter 2022-2023

  • Probabilistic extreme SST and marine heatwave forecasts in Chesapeake Bay: A forecast model, skill assessment, and potential value
  • Enhanced dust emission following large wildfires due to vegetation disturbance
  • Ocean currents break up a tabular iceberg
  • Integrated Dynamics-Physics Coupling for Weather to Climate Models: GFDL SHiELD With In-Line Microphysics
  • National Academy of Science honors GFDL’s Kirk Bryan for pioneering ocean and climate science

Fall 2022

  • A simple conceptual model for the self-sustained multidecadal AMOC variability
  • A weakened AMOC may prolong greenhouse gas-induced Mediterranean drying even with significant and rapid climate change mitigation
  • Impact of warmer sea surface temperature on the global pattern of intense convection: Insights from a global storm resolving model
  • Reduction in near-surface wind speeds with increasing CO2 may worsen winter air quality in the Indo-Gangetic plain

Summer 2022

  • Skillful seasonal prediction of North American heat extremes
  • Tripling of western us particulate pollution from wildfires in a warming climate
  • Substantial global influence of anthropogenic aerosols on tropical cyclones over the past 40 years
  • Regional sensitivity patterns of arctic ocean acidification revealed with machine learning
  • Oceanic and atmospheric drivers of post-El-Niño chlorophyll rebound in the equatorial pacific
  • Sarah Kapnick named NOAA chief scientist

Spring 2022

  • Possible anthropogenic enhancement of precipitation in the Sahel-Sudan savanna by remote agricultural irrigation
  • Prospects for seasonal prediction of summertime trans-arctic sea ice path
  • A study of AR-, TS-, and MCS-associated precipitation and extreme precipitation in present and warmer climates
  • Important factors in the tracking of tropical cyclones in operational models

Winter 2021-2022

  • Are multi-seasonal forecasts of atmospheric rivers possible?
  • S2S prediction in GFDL SPEAR: MJO diversity and teleconnections
  • Simulated global coastal ecosystem responses to a half-century increase in river nitrogen loads
  • Bridging observations, theory and numerical simulation of the ocean using machine learning

Fall 2021

  • Climate science & understanding: Manabe shares Nobel Prize in physics
  • The effects of doubling the CO2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model
  • Can existing climate models be used to study anthropogenic changes in tropical cyclone climate?
  • Low-frequency variability of surface air temperature in a 1000-year integration of a coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface model

Summer 2021

  • Horizontal circulation across density surfaces contributes substantially to the long-term mean northern Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
  • Next-generation regional ocean projections for living marine resource management in a changing climate
  • Two-moment bulk cloud microphysics with prognostic precipitation in GFDL’s Atmosphere Model AM4.0: Configuration and performance
  • Anthropogenic forcing and response yield observed positive trend in earth’s energy imbalance

Spring 2021

  • Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones
  • Ocean biogeochemistry in GFDL’s Earth System Model 4.1 and its response to increasing atmospheric CO2
  • Assimilation of satellite-retrieved sea ice concentration and prospects for September predictions of arctic sea ice
  • Enhanced climate response to ozone depletion from ozone-circulation coupling

Winter 2020-2021

  • The GFDL Earth System Model version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM 4.1): Overall coupled model description and simulation characteristics
  • The GFDL Global Atmospheric Chemistry-climate model AM4.1: Model description and simulation characteristics
  • Simulations of atmospheric rivers, their variability and response to global warming using GFDL’s new high-resolution general circulation model
  • Assessing the influence of COVID-19 on earth’s radiative balance

Fall 2020

  • GFDL SHiELD: A unified system for weather-to-seasonal prediction
  • A mechanism for the arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier
  • Increased risk of the 2019 Alaskan July fires due to anthropogenic activity
  • Estuarine forecasts at daily weather to subseasonal time scales

Summer 2020

  • Detected climate change in global distribution of tropical cyclones
  • Multiple hydrometeors all-sky microwave radiance assimilation in FV3GFS
  • Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic
  • Importance of wind and meltwater for observed chemical and physical changes in the Southern Ocean

Spring 2020

  • Structure and performance of GFDL’s CM4.0 climate model
  • Response of storm-related extreme sea level along the U.S. Atlantic coast to combined weather and climate forcing
  • Spear: the next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection
  • Changes in extreme precipitation and landslides over high mountain Asia