Division Leader: GFDL Weather and Climate Dynamics Division
emailTom.Knutson@noaa.gov
Focus Areas:
- Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
- Detection and Attribution of Climate Change
- Climate Variability
- Climate Change Assessments
Thomas R. Knutson
Senior Scientist, NOAA/GFDL
Feature: Is precipitation changing in your region due to human-caused climate change?
Feature: New Machine-Learning based attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impacts studies by Callaghan et al. (Nature Climate Change 2021) uses Knutson et al. Precipitation and Temperature regional trend assessment methodology. Explore here.
Feature: WMO Expert Team assessments of tropical cyclones and climate change: Detection and attribution (2019) and Projected response to anthropogenic warming (2020).
Feature: Interview for Great.com (March 2021): Does Climate Change Equal More Tropical Storms?
Feature: Webinar at Univ. of Maryland (May 18, 2020): Tough Regional Climate Change Problems: Detection/attribution and Projections for Hurricanes, Precipitation and Sea-level Pressure Trends
Research Interests
- Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change:
- Global warming and hurricanes (Overview web page, updated Aug. 9, 2021)
- Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates. (Nature Communications, 2019) by Bhatia et al.
- Intense tropical cyclone activity: Global projections for the late 21st century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios (Journal of Climate, 2015).
- More Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Publications…
- Detection and Attribution of Climate Change:
- Sea Level Pressure Trends: Model-Based Assessment of Detection, Attribution, and Consistency with CMIP5 Historical Simulations. Journal of Climate (2020)
- Precipitation trends over land regions: model assessment of detectable human influences and possible low bias in model trends Journal of Climate (2018).
- Regional surface temperature trends during the 20th century: assessment of CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations (Journal of Climate, 2013). See Research Highlight page (summary of article).
- More Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Publications…
- Climate Variability
- A Multivariate AMV Index and Associated Discrepancies Between Observed and CMIP5 Externally Forced AMV. Geophysical Research Letters (2019) by X. Yan, R. Zhang, and T. Knutson.
- Underestimated AMOC Variability and Implications for AMV and Predictability in CMIP Models. Geophysical Research Letters (2018) by X. Yan, R. Zhang, and T. Knutson
- Atlantic major hurricane frequency: Its recent decline and the role of the Atlantic overturning circulation. (Nature Communications, 2017) by X. Yan, R. Zhang, and T. Knutson
- More Climate Variability Publications…
Climate Change Assessment Activities
- ScienceBrief on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change published (March 2021)
- World Meteorological Organization Task Team assessment on “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change”, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in 2019 and 2020.
- NOAA State of the Science Fact Sheet on “Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate” Updated May 2020.
- Third Assessment Report on Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region (Dec. 2019). Full Report.
- Climate Science Special Report, Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Vol. I (2017). (T. Knutson was lead author of Ch. 3: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change, and of Appendix C: Detection and Attribution Methodologies Overview.
- “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change”, WMO Expert Team assessment (Nature Geoscience, March 2010). For a copy of the article, email: nlomarda@wmo.int
Publications
- Bibliography (including .pdf versions of abstracts and some full articles)
Technical Notes
- A Note on 20th Century Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures as Reconstructed in the LDEO and UKMO Data Sets
- FMS Slab Ocean Model Technical Documentation
Data Sets
Climate Group Research
GFDL Global Warming Simulation
