Project Lead: Detection, Attribution and Assessments
emailTom.Knutson@noaa.gov
Focus Areas:
- Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
- Detection and Attribution of Climate Change
- Climate Variability
- Climate Change Assessments
Thomas R. Knutson
Research Meteorologist, NOAA/GFDL
Research Interests
- Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change:
- Global warming and hurricanes (Overview web page, Updated June 7, 2019)
- Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates. (Nature Communications, 2018) by Bhatia et al.
- Intense tropical cyclone activity: Global projections for the late 21st century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios (J. Climate, 2015).
- More Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Publications…
- Detection and Attribution of Climate Change:
- Precipitation trends over land regions: model assessment of detectable human influences and possible low bias in model trends Journal of Climate. Supplemental Material
- Streamflow timing over North America: Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring timing. Journal of Climate (early online release) by Jonghun Kam, T. R. Knutson, and P. C. D. Milly
- Record global warmth in 2016: CMIP5 model-based assessment of anthropogenic influence. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2017)
- More Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Publications…
- Climate Variability
- A Multivariate AMV Index and Associated Discrepancies Between Observed and CMIP5 Externally Forced AMV. Geophysical Research Letters (2019) by X. Yan, R. Zhang, and T. Knutson.
- Underestimated AMOC Variability and Implications for AMV and Predictability in CMIP Models. Geophysical Research Letters (2018) by X. Yan, R. Zhang, and T. Knutson
- Atlantic major hurricane frequency: Its recent decline and the role of the Atlantic overturning circulation. (Nature Communications, 2017) by X. Yan, R. Zhang, and T. Knutson
- More Climate Variability Publications…
Climate Change Assessment Activities
- “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment. Part I: Detection and Attribution” is now available on-line (BAMS early online release–full report available here). This is part I of on updated assessment report by the WMO Task Team on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change.
- Climate Science Special Report, Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Vol. I (2017). (T. Knutson is lead author of Ch. 3: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change, and of Appendix C: Detection and Attribution Methodologies Overview.
- “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change”, an assessment by a WMO Expert Team (Nature Geoscience, March 2010). For a copy of the full article, contact (email): nlomarda@wmo.int
- NOAA State of the Science Fact Sheet on “Atlantic Hurricanes, Climate Variability, and Global Warming”
Publications
- Bibliography (including .pdf versions of abstracts and some full articles)
Technical Notes
- A Note on 20th Century Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures as Reconstructed in the LDEO and UKMO Data Sets
- FMS Slab Ocean Model Technical Documentation
Data Sets
Climate Group Research
GFDL Global Warming Simulation
