Catalano, Katrina A., Elizabeth J Drenkard, Enrique N Curchitser, Allison C Dedrick, Michelle R Stuart, Humberto R Montes Jr, and Malin L Pinsky, October 2024: The contribution of nearshore oceanography to temporal variation in larval dispersal. Ecology, 105(10), DOI:10.1002/ecy.4412. Abstract
Patterns of population connectivity shape ecological and evolutionary phenomena from population persistence to local adaptation and can inform conservation strategy. Connectivity patterns emerge from the interaction of individual behavior with a complex and heterogeneous environment. Despite ample observation that dispersal patterns vary through time, the extent to which variation in the physical environment can explain emergent connectivity variation is not clear. Empirical studies of its contribution promise to illuminate a potential source of variability that shapes the dynamics of natural populations. We leveraged simultaneous direct dispersal observations and oceanographic transport simulations of the clownfish Amphiprion clarkii in the Camotes Sea, Philippines, to assess the contribution of oceanographic variability to emergent variation in connectivity. We found that time-varying oceanographic simulations on both annual and monsoonal timescales partly explained the observed dispersal patterns, suggesting that temporal variation in oceanographic transport shapes connectivity variation on these timescales. However, interannual variation in observed mean dispersal distance was nearly 10 times the expected variation from biophysical simulations, revealing that additional biotic and abiotic factors contribute to interannual connectivity variation. Simulated dispersal kernels also predicted a smaller scale of dispersal than the observations, supporting the hypothesis that undocumented abiotic factors and behaviors such as swimming and navigation enhance the probability of successful dispersal away from, as opposed to retention near, natal sites. Our findings highlight the potential for coincident observations and biophysical simulations to test dispersal hypotheses and the influence of temporal variability on metapopulation persistence, local adaptation, and other population processes.
Cerutti-Pereyra, Florencia, Elizabeth J Drenkard, Mario Espinoza, Brittany Finucci, Felipe Galván-Magaña, Ana Hacohen-Domené, Alexander Hearn, Mauricio E Hoyos-Padilla, James T Ketchum, Paola A Mejía-Falla, Ana V Moya-Serrano, Andres F Navia, Diana A Pazmiño, Deni Ramírez-Macías, Jodie L Rummer, Pelayo Salinas-de-León, Oscar Sosa-Nishizaki, Charles A Stock, and Andrew Chin, July 2024: Vulnerability of Eastern Tropical Pacific chondrichthyan fish to climate change. Global Change Biology, 30(7), DOI:10.1111/gcb.17373. Abstract
Climate change is an environmental emergency threatening species and ecosystems globally. Oceans have absorbed about 90% of anthropogenic heat and 20%–30% of the carbon emissions, resulting in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, changes in ocean stratification and nutrient availability, and more severe extreme events. Given predictions of further changes, there is a critical need to understand how marine species will be affected. Here, we used an integrated risk assessment framework to evaluate the vulnerability of 132 chondrichthyans in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) to the impacts of climate change. Taking a precautionary view, we found that almost a quarter (23%) of the ETP chondrichthyan species evaluated were highly vulnerable to climate change, and much of the rest (76%) were moderately vulnerable. Most of the highly vulnerable species are batoids (77%), and a large proportion (90%) are coastal or pelagic species that use coastal habitats as nurseries. Six species of batoids were highly vulnerable in all three components of the assessment (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity). This assessment indicates that coastal species, particularly those relying on inshore nursery areas are the most vulnerable to climate change. Ocean warming, in combination with acidification and potential deoxygenation, will likely have widespread effects on ETP chondrichthyan species, but coastal species may also contend with changes in freshwater inputs, salinity, and sea level rise. This climate-related vulnerability is compounded by other anthropogenic factors, such as overfishing and habitat degradation already occurring in the region. Mitigating the impacts of climate change on ETP chondrichthyans involves a range of approaches that include addressing habitat degradation, sustainability of exploitation, and species-specific actions may be required for species at higher risk. The assessment also highlighted the need to further understand climate change's impacts on key ETP habitats and processes and identified knowledge gaps on ETP chondrichthyan species.
Global Earth system models are often enlisted to assess the impacts of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems. In this study, we compare high frequency (daily) outputs of potential ecosystem stressors, such as sea surface temperature and surface pH, and associated variables from an Earth system model (GFDL ESM4.1) with high frequency time series from a global network of moorings to directly assess the capacity of the model to resolve local biogeochemical variability on time scales from daily to interannual. Our analysis indicates variability in surface temperature is most consistent between ESM4.1 and observations, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.93 and bias of 0.40°C, followed by variability in surface salinity. Physical variability is reproduced with greater accuracy than biogeochemical variability, and variability on seasonal and longer time scales is more consistent between the model and observations than higher frequency variability. At the same time, the well-resolved seasonal and longer timescale variability is a reasonably good predictor, in many cases, of the likelihood of extreme events. Despite limited model representation of high frequency variability, model and observation-based assessments of the fraction of days experiencing surface T-pH and T-Ωarag multistressor conditions show reasonable agreement, depending on the stressor combination and threshold definition. We also identify circumstances in which some errors could be reduced by accounting for model biases.
Schultz, Cristina, John P Dunne, Xiao Liu, Elizabeth J Drenkard, and Brendan R Carter, February 2024: Characterizing subsurface oxygen variability in the California Current System (CCS) and its links to water mass distribution. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129(2), DOI:10.1029/2023JC020000. Abstract
The California current system (CCS) supports a wide array of ecosystem services with hypoxia historically occurring in near-bottom waters. Limited open ocean data coverage hinders the mechanistic understanding of CCS oxygen variability. By comparing three different models with varying horizontal resolutions, we found that dissolved oxygen (DO) anomalies in the CCS are propagated from shallower coastal areas to the deeper open ocean, where they are advected at a density and velocity consistent with basin-scale circulation. Since DO decreases have been linked to water mass redistribution in the CCS, we conduct a water mass analysis on two of the models and on biogeochemical Argo floats that sampled multiple seasonal cycles. We found that high variability in biogeochemical variables (DO and nutrients) seen in regions of low variability of temperature and salinity could be linked to water mass mixing, as some of the water masses considered had higher gradients in biogeochemical variables compared to physical variables. Additional DO observations are needed, therefore, to further understand circulation changes in the CCS. We suggest that increased DO sampling north of 35˚N and near the shelf break would benefit model initialization and skill assessment, as well as allow for better assessment of the role of equatorial waters in driving DO in the northern CCS.
Barkan, Joel T., Jasmin G John, Elizabeth J Drenkard, and Drew Talley, December 2023: Ocean Discovery Institute’s model for empowering underrepresented students in STEM: Community-based, continuous belief. Oceanography, 36(4), DOI:10.5670/oceanog.2024.117.
Deposition of mineral dust plays an important role in upper-ocean biogeochemical processes, particularly by delivering iron to iron-limited regions. Here we examine the impact of dynamically changing iron deposition on tropical Pacific Ocean biogeochemistry in fully coupled earth system model projections under several emissions scenarios. Projected end-of-21st-century increases in central tropical Pacific dust and iron deposition strengthen with increasing emissions/radiative forcing, and are aligned with projected soil moisture decreases in adjacent land areas and precipitation increases over the equatorial Pacific. Increased delivery of soluble iron results in a reduction in, and eastward contraction of, equatorial Pacific phytoplankton iron limitation and shifts primary production and particulate organic carbon flux projections relative to a high emissions projection (SSP5-8.5) wherein soluble iron deposition is prescribed as a static climatology. These results highlight modeling advances in representing coupled land-air-sea interactions to project basin-scale patterns of ocean biogeochemical change.
We present the development and evaluation of MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 version 1.0, a 1/12∘ model of ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. This model is built using the new regional capabilities in the MOM6 ocean model and is coupled with the Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry and Lower Trophics (COBALT) biogeochemical model and Sea Ice Simulator version-2 (SIS2) sea ice model. Our goal was to develop a model to provide information to support living-marine-resource applications across management time horizons from seasons to decades. To do this, we struck a balance between a broad, coastwide domain to simulate basin-scale variability and capture cross-boundary issues expected under climate change; a high enough spatial resolution to accurately simulate features like the Gulf Stream separation and advection of water masses through finer-scale coastal features; and the computational economy required to run the long simulations of multiple ensemble members that are needed to quantify prediction uncertainties and produce actionable information. We assess whether MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 is capable of supporting the intended applications by evaluating the model with three categories of metrics: basin-wide indicators of the model's performance, indicators of coastal ecosystem variability and the regional ocean features that drive it, and model run times and computational efficiency. Overall, both the basin-wide and the regional ecosystem-relevant indicators are simulated well by the model. Where notable model biases and errors are present in both types of indicator, they are mainly consistent with the challenges of accurately simulating the Gulf Stream separation, path, and variability: for example, the coastal ocean and shelf north of Cape Hatteras are too warm and salty and have minor biogeochemical biases. During model development, we identified a few model parameters that exerted a notable influence on the model solution, including the horizontal viscosity, mixed-layer restratification, and tidal self-attraction and loading, which we discuss briefly. The computational performance of the model is adequate to support running numerous long simulations, even with the inclusion of coupled biogeochemistry with 40 additional tracers. Overall, these results show that this first version of a regional MOM6 model for the northwest Atlantic Ocean is capable of efficiently and accurately simulating historical basin-wide and regional mean conditions and variability, laying the groundwork for future studies to analyze this variability in detail, develop and improve parameterizations and model components to better capture local ocean features, and develop predictions and projections of future conditions to support living-marine-resource applications across timescales.
Efforts to manage living marine resources (LMRs) under climate change need projections of future ocean conditions, yet most global climate models (GCMs) poorly represent critical coastal habitats. GCM utility for LMR applications will increase with higher spatial resolution but obstacles including computational and data storage costs, obstinate regional biases, and formulations prioritizing global robustness over regional skill will persist. Downscaling can help address GCM limitations, but significant improvements are needed to robustly support LMR science and management. We synthesize past ocean downscaling efforts to suggest a protocol to achieve this goal. The protocol emphasizes LMR-driven design to ensure delivery of decision-relevant information. It prioritizes ensembles of downscaled projections spanning the range of ocean futures with durations long enough to capture climate change signals. This demands judicious resolution refinement, with pragmatic consideration for LMR-essential ocean features superseding theoretical investigation. Statistical downscaling can complement dynamical approaches in building these ensembles. Inconsistent use of bias correction indicates a need for objective best practices. Application of the suggested protocol should yield regional ocean projections that, with effective dissemination and translation to decision-relevant analytics, can robustly support LMR science and management under climate change.
Kearney, Kelly A., Steven J Bograd, Elizabeth J Drenkard, Fabien A Gomez, Melissa A Haltuch, Albert Hermann, Michael G Jacox, Isaac C Kaplan, Stefan Koenigstein, and Jessica Y Luo, et al., August 2021: Using global-scale Earth system models for regional fisheries applications. Frontiers in Marine Science, DOI:10.3389/fmars.2021.622206. Abstract
Climate change may impact ocean ecosystems through a number of mechanisms, including shifts in primary productivity or plankton community structure, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation. These processes can be simulated with global Earth system models (ESMs), which are increasingly being used in the context of fisheries management and other living marine resource (LMR) applications. However, projections of LMR-relevant metrics such as net primary production can vary widely between ESMs, even under identical climate scenarios. Therefore, the use of ESM should be accompanied by an understanding of the structural differences in the biogeochemical sub-models within ESMs that may give rise to these differences. This review article provides a brief overview of some of the most prominent differences among the most recent generation of ESM and how they are relevant to LMR application.
Gallo, Natalya D., and Elizabeth J Drenkard, et al., November 2019: Bridging from monitoring to solutions-based thinking: Lessons from CalCOFI for understanding and adapting to marine climate change impacts. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, DOI:10.3389/fmars.2019.00695. Abstract
Multidisciplinary, integrated ocean observing programs provide critical data for monitoring the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems. California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) samples along the US West Coast and is one of the world’s longest-running and most comprehensive time series, with hydrographic and biological data collected since 1949. The pairing of ecological and physical measurements across this long time series informs our understanding of how the California Current marine ecosystem responds to climate variability. By providing a baseline to monitor change, the CalCOFI time series serves as a Keeling Curve for the California Current. However, challenges remain in connecting the data collected from long-term monitoring programs with the needs of stakeholders concerned with climate change adaptation (i.e., resource managers, policy makers, and the public), including for the fisheries and aquaculture sectors. We use the CalCOFI program as a case study to ask: how can long-term ocean observing programs inform ecosystem based management efforts and create data flows that meet the needs of stakeholders working on climate change adaptation? Addressing this question and identifying solutions requires working across sectors and recognizing stakeholder needs. Lessons learned from CalCOFI can inform other regional monitoring programs around the world, including those done at a smaller scale in developing countries.
Mollica, N R., A L Cohen, A E Alpert, H C Barkley, R Brainard, J E Carilli, T M DeCarlo, and Elizabeth J Drenkard, et al., August 2019: Skeletal records of bleaching reveal different thermal thresholds of Pacific coral reef assemblages. Coral Reefs, 38(4), DOI:10.1007/s00338-019-01803-x. Abstract
Ocean warming is negatively impacting coral reef ecosystems and considerable effort is currently invested in projecting coral reef futures under 21st century climate change. A limiting factor in these projections is lack of quantitative data on the thermal thresholds of different reef communities, due in large part to spatial and temporal gaps in bleaching observations. Here we apply a coral bleaching proxy, skeletal stress bands, to reconstruct the history of bleaching on eight coral reefs in the central equatorial Pacific (CEP) and use this information to constrain the thermal thresholds of their coral communities. First, three genera of massive corals collected on both Pacific and Caribbean reefs are used to derive a calibration between the proportion of corals that form stress bands during a bleaching event, and the total observed bleaching incidence in the community of mixed coral taxa. The correlation is highly significant, indicating that stress bands in massive corals reflect community-level bleaching severity (R2 = 0.945, p < 0.001). We applied the calibration to stress band records from eight Pacific reefs, reconstructing their bleaching histories over the period 1982 to 2015. A percentile-based method of estimating thermal stress (Degree Heating Weeks) for CEP reefs was developed and applied. Comparing the level of thermal stress experienced by each coral community during each event with the reconstructed bleaching response, we characterized the thermal sensitivities of each reef community and quantified the thermal threshold (b½) at which 50% of the coral community bleached. Our analysis reveals a unique non-linear thermal response curve for each reef. The most thermally tolerant reefs in the study (Jarvis and Kanton Islands) experienced 50% bleaching at seven to nine times more thermal stress than did the least resistant reef in the study (Maiana Island). An exploration of the potential drivers of thermal tolerance revealed a strong correlation between b½ and the history of thermal stress events in each reef system. Thermal tolerance was also correlated with concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrate in the water column and with estimates of coral energetic reserve.
Barkley, H C., A L Cohen, N R Mollica, R Brainard, H E Rivera, T M DeCarlo, G P Lohmann, and Elizabeth J Drenkard, et al., November 2018: Repeat bleaching of a central Pacific coral reef over the past six decades (1960–2016). Communications Biology, DOI:10.1038/s42003-018-0183-7. Abstract
The oceans are warming and coral reefs are bleaching with increased frequency and severity, fueling concerns for their survival through this century. Yet in the central equatorial Pacific, some of the world’s most productive reefs regularly experience extreme heat associated with El Niño. Here we use skeletal signatures preserved in long-lived corals on Jarvis Island to evaluate the coral community response to multiple successive heatwaves since 1960. By tracking skeletal stress band formation through the 2015-16 El Nino, which killed 95% of Jarvis corals, we validate their utility as proxies of bleaching severity and show that 2015-16 was not the first catastrophic bleaching event on Jarvis. Since 1960, eight severe (>30% bleaching) and two moderate (<30% bleaching) events occurred, each coinciding with El Niño. While the frequency and severity of bleaching on Jarvis did not increase over this time period, 2015–16 was unprecedented in magnitude. The trajectory of recovery of this historically resilient ecosystem will provide critical insights into the potential for coral reef resilience in a warming world.
Drenkard, Elizabeth J., et al., October 2018: Juveniles of the Atlantic coral, Favia fragum (Esper, 1797) do not invest energy to maintain calcification under ocean acidification. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 507, DOI:10.1016/j.jembe.2018.07.007. Abstract
Ocean acidification (OA) threatens coral reef ecosystems by slowing calcification and enhancing dissolution of calcifying organisms and sediments. Nevertheless, multiple factors have been shown to modulate OA's impact on calcification, including the nutritional status of the coral host. In three separate experiments, we exposed juveniles of the Atlantic golf ball coral, Favia fragum, to elevated CO2 and varied nutritional (light or feeding) conditions. Juveniles reared from planulae larvae were significantly larger and produced more CaCO3 when fed, regardless of CO2 level. However, corals subjected to elevated CO2 produced less CaCO3 per mm2 regardless of feeding condition. Additionally, unfed corals reared under elevated light levels exhibited lower chlorophyll a and higher total lipid content, but light had no significant effect on coral calcification. Conversely, elevated CO2 had a significant, negative affect on calcification, regardless of light condition but no detectable effect on physiological tissue parameters. Our results indicate that the sensitivity of juvenile F. fragum calcification to OA was neither modulated by light nor by feeding, despite physiological indications of enhanced nutritional status. This suggests that corals do not necessarily divert energy to maintain calcification under high CO2, even when they have the energetic resources to do so.
McClatchie, S, J Gao, and Elizabeth J Drenkard, et al., July 2018: Interannual and Secular Variability of Larvae of Mesopelagic and Forage Fishes in the Southern California Current System. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123(9), DOI:10.1029/2018JC014011. Abstract
We used univariate and multivariate spatiotemporal delta models to quantify changes in the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the southern California Current System from 1951 to 2016. We focus on mesopelagic species, because they are most abundant, and on northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), and Pacific hake (Merluccius productus), because they are important commercial and forage fish species. Univariate models indicated that changes in the relative abundance, area occupied, center of gravity, and spatiotemporal variability of numerically dominant warm‐water and cool‐water‐associated mesopelagic ichthyoplankton show strong species‐specific differences. Multivariate models revealed that the warm‐water‐associated mesopelagic assemblage exhibits an increasing, nonmonotonic, secular trend of increasing relative abundance underlying interannual variability, suggesting a tropicalization of the southern California Current System. In contrast, the cool‐water‐associated mesopelagic assemblage shows mainly interannual variability, with little secular trend over the 65‐year period. Correlation matrices of the modeled ichthyoplankton densities showed that the spatial distributions of northern anchovy and Pacific hake are highly correlated with cool‐water mesopelagic ichthyoplankton, but Pacific sardine is spatially correlated with both warm‐ and cool‐water‐associated mesopelagic species. Declines of adult sardine, anchovy, and hake are occurring concurrently with tropicalization of the southern California Current System. The most parsimonious explanation for tropicalization of the ichthyoplankton is increased presence of Pacific Equatorial‐influenced Water in the inshore southern California region.
Karnauskas, K B., A L Cohen, and Elizabeth J Drenkard, May 2015: Comment on “Equatorial Pacific coral geochemical records show recent weakening of the Walker circulation” by J. Carilli et al.. Paleoceanography, 30(5), DOI:10.1002/2014PA002683.
Drenkard, Elizabeth J., and K B Karnauskas, March 2014: Strengthening of the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent in the SODA Reanalysis: Mechanisms, Ocean Dynamics, and Implications. Journal of Climate, 27(6), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00359.1. Abstract
Several recent studies utilizing global climate models predict that the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) will strengthen over the twenty-first century. Here, historical changes in the tropical Pacific are investigated using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis toward understanding the dynamics and mechanisms that may dictate such a change. Although SODA does not assimilate velocity observations, the seasonal-to-interannual variability of the EUC estimated by SODA corresponds well with moored observations over a ~20-yr common period. Long-term trends in SODA indicate that the EUC core velocity has increased by 16% century−1 and as much as 47% century−1 at fixed locations since the mid-1800s. Diagnosis of the zonal momentum budget in the equatorial Pacific reveals two distinct seasonal mechanisms that explain the EUC strengthening. The first is characterized by strengthening of the western Pacific trade winds and hence oceanic zonal pressure gradient during boreal spring. The second entails weakening of eastern Pacific trade winds during boreal summer, which weakens the surface current and reduces EUC deceleration through vertical friction. EUC strengthening has important ecological implications as upwelling affects the thermal and biogeochemical environment. Furthermore, given the potential large-scale influence of EUC strength and depth on the heat budget in the eastern Pacific, the seasonal strengthening of the EUC may help reconcile paradoxical observations of Walker circulation slowdown and zonal SST gradient strengthening. Such a process would represent a new dynamical “thermostat” on CO2-forced warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, emphasizing the importance of ocean dynamics and seasonality in understanding climate change projections.
Ocean acidification (OA) threatens the existence of coral reefs by slowing the rate of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) production of framework-building corals thus reducing the amount of CaCO3 the reef can produce to counteract natural dissolution. Some evidence exists to suggest that elevated levels of dissolved inorganic nutrients can reduce the impact of OA on coral calcification. Here, we investigated the potential for enhanced energetic status of juvenile corals, achieved via heterotrophic feeding, to modulate the negative impact of OA on calcification. Larvae of the common Atlantic golf ball coral, Favia fragum, were collected and reared for 3 weeks under ambient (421 μatm) or significantly elevated (1,311 μatm) CO2 conditions. The metamorphosed, zooxanthellate spat were either fed brine shrimp (i.e., received nutrition from photosynthesis plus heterotrophy) or not fed (i.e., primarily autotrophic). Regardless of CO2 condition, the skeletons of fed corals exhibited accelerated development of septal cycles and were larger than those of unfed corals. At each CO2 level, fed corals accreted more CaCO3 than unfed corals, and fed corals reared under 1,311 μatm CO2 accreted as much CaCO3 as unfed corals reared under ambient CO2. However, feeding did not alter the sensitivity of calcification to increased CO2; ∆ calcification/∆Ω was comparable for fed and unfed corals. Our results suggest that calcification rates of nutritionally replete juvenile corals will decline as OA intensifies over the course of this century. Critically, however, such corals could maintain higher rates of skeletal growth and CaCO3 production under OA than those in nutritionally limited environments.
Lane, A L., L Mular, and Elizabeth J Drenkard, et al., January 2010: Ecological leads for natural product discovery: novel sesquiterpene hydroquinones from the red macroalga Peyssonnelia sp. Tetrahedron, 66(2), DOI:10.1016/j.tet.2009.11.042. Abstract
Pharmacologically-motivated marine natural product investigations have yielded a large variety of structurally unique compounds with interesting biomedical properties, but the natural roles of these molecules often remain unknown. While secondary metabolites may function as antimicrobial chemical defenses, few studies have examined this hypothesis. In the present investigation, chromatographic fractions from 69 collections of Fijian red macroalgae representing at least 43 species were evaluated for growth inhibition of three microbial pathogens and saprophytes of marine macrophytes. At least one microbe was suppressed by fraction(s) of all evaluated algae, suggesting that antimicrobial defenses are common among tropical seaweeds. From these leads, peyssonoic acids A–B (1–2), novel sesquiterpene hydroquinones, were isolated from the crustose red alga Peyssonnelia sp. At ecologically realistic concentrations, both compounds inhibited growth of Pseudoalteromonas bacteriolytica, a bacterial pathogen of marine algae, and Lindra thalassiae, a fungal pathogen of marine algae, and exhibited modest antineoplastic activity against ovarian cancer cells. The peyssonoic acids included one novel carbon skeleton and illustrated the utility of ecological studies in natural product discovery.
