Stratospheric injections of sulfur dioxide from major volcanic eruptions perturb the Earth's global radiative balance and dominate variability in stratospheric sulfur loading. The atmospheric component of the GFDL Earth System Model (ESM4.1) uses a bulk aerosol scheme and previously prescribed the distribution of aerosol optical properties in the stratosphere. To quantify volcanic contributions to the stratospheric sulfur cycle and the resulting climate impact, we modified ESM4.1 to simulate stratospheric sulfate aerosols prognostically. Driven by explicit volcanic emissions of aerosol precursors and non-volcanic sources, we conduct ESM4.1 simulations from 1989 to 2014, with a focus on the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We evaluate our interactive representation of the stratospheric sulfur cycle against data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder, and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II. To assess the key processes associated with volcanic aerosols, we performed a sensitivity analysis of sulfate burden from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption by varying injection heights, emission amount, and stratospheric sulfate's dry effective radius. We find that the simulated stratospheric sulfate mass burden and aerosol optical depth in the model are sensitive to these parameters, especially volcanic SO2 injection height, and the optimal combination of parameters depends on the metric we evaluate.
Gomez, James, Robert J Allen, Steven T Turnock, Larry W Horowitz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E Bauer, Dirk Olivié, Erik S Thomson, and Paul Ginoux, February 2023: The projected future degradation in air quality is caused by more abundant natural aerosols in a warmer world. Communications Earth and Environment, 4, 22, DOI:10.1038/s43247-023-00688-7. Abstract
Previous studies suggest that greenhouse gas-induced warming can lead to increased fine particulate matter concentrations and degraded air quality. However, significant uncertainties remain regarding the sign and magnitude of the response to warming and the underlying mechanisms. Here, we show that thirteen models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 all project an increase in global average concentrations of fine particulate matter in response to rising carbon dioxide concentrations, but the range of increase across models is wide. The two main contributors to this increase are increased abundance of dust and secondary organic aerosols via intensified West African monsoon and enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, respectively. Much of the inter-model spread is related to different treatment of biogenic volatile organic compounds. Our results highlight the importance of natural aerosols in degrading air quality under current warming, while also emphasizing that improved understanding of biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions due to climate change is essential for numerically assessing future air quality.
Light-absorbing impurities (LAIs) deposited on snow surfaces can accelerate melt by increasing solar radiation absorption through snow darkening and grain metamorphism. To improve the predictive capability of the global impact of LAIs on the surface energy balance, we have developed a simple snow parameterization - Snow LAI Redistribution (SLAIR) to estimate the snow albedo based on the concentration of LAIs and grain size. The parameterization can be run as a standalone model constrained by temperature, snowfall, ablation, and aerosol deposition or be implemented into large scale models. The concentration of LAIs at the snow surface depends on aerosol deposition and vertical redistribution during melt. To represent the uncertainties associated with different melting regimes, two approaches were considered, one assuming all the meltwater is contributed from the top of the snowpack (“surface melt mode”) and one assuming each snow layer contributes the same fraction of the mass of the total melt (“uniform melt mode”). The parameterization is evaluated as a standalone model against publicly available data at
the French Alps using observational inputs. The parameterization captured the temporal variations in grain size but not the detailed variabilities. For concentration of LAIs and visible albedo, both melting modes agree reasonably well with observations during the accumulation phase but only the surface melt model reproduced observations with good agreement. Overall, the simple snow parameterization can estimate the near-surface
concentration of LAIs, grain size and visible albedo within a reasonable range. Further developments are required to minimize uncertainties, especially for relatively warm and humid regions.
Di Tomaso, Enza, Jeronimo Escribano, Sara Basart, and Paul Ginoux, et al., June 2022: The MONARCH high-resolution reanalysis of desert dust aerosol over Northern Africa, the Middle East and Europe (2007–2016). Earth System Science Data, 14(6), DOI:10.5194/essd-14-2785-20222785-2816. Abstract
One of the challenges in studying desert dust aerosol along with its numerous interactions and impacts is the paucity of direct in situ measurements, particularly in the areas most affected by dust storms. Satellites typically provide column-integrated aerosol measurements, but observationally constrained continuous 3D dust fields are needed to assess dust variability, climate effects and impacts upon a variety of socio-economic sectors. Here, we present a high-resolution regional reanalysis data set of desert dust aerosols that covers Northern Africa, the Middle East and Europe along with the Mediterranean Sea and parts of central Asia and the Atlantic and Indian oceans between 2007 and 2016. The horizontal resolution is 0.1∘ latitude × 0.1∘ longitude in a rotated grid, and the temporal resolution is 3 h. The reanalysis was produced using local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) data assimilation in the Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry model (MONARCH) developed at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC). The assimilated data are coarse-mode dust optical depth retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue Level 2 products. The reanalysis data set consists of upper-air variables (dust mass concentrations and the extinction coefficient), surface variables (dust deposition and solar irradiance fields among them) and total column variables (e.g. dust optical depth and load). Some dust variables, such as concentrations and wet and dry deposition, are expressed for a binned size distribution that ranges from 0.2 to 20 µm in particle diameter. Both analysis and first-guess (analysis-initialized simulation) fields are available for the variables that are diagnosed from the state vector. A set of ensemble statistics is archived for each output variable, namely the ensemble mean, standard deviation, maximum and median. The spatial and temporal distribution of the dust fields follows well-known dust cycle features controlled by seasonal changes in meteorology and vegetation cover. The analysis is statistically closer to the assimilated retrievals than the first guess, which proves the consistency of the data assimilation method. Independent evaluation using Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) dust-filtered optical depth retrievals indicates that the reanalysis data set is highly accurate (mean bias = −0.05, RMSE = 0.12 and r = 0.81 when compared to retrievals from the spectral de-convolution algorithm on a 3-hourly basis). Verification statistics are broadly homogeneous in space and time with regional differences that can be partly attributed to model limitations (e.g. poor representation of small-scale emission processes), the presence of aerosols other than dust in the observations used in the evaluation and differences in the number of observations among seasons. Such a reliable high-resolution historical record of atmospheric desert dust will allow a better quantification of dust impacts upon key sectors of society and economy, including health, solar energy production and transportation. The reanalysis data set (Di Tomaso et al., 2021) is distributed via Thematic Real-time Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS) at BSC and is freely available at http://hdl.handle.net/21.12146/c6d4a608-5de3-47f6-a004-67cb1d498d98 (last access: 10 June 2022).
Go, Sujung, Alexei Lyapustin, Gregory L Schuster, Myungje Choi, and Paul Ginoux, et al., January 2022: Inferring iron-oxide species content in atmospheric mineral dust from DSCOVR EPIC observations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22(2), DOI:10.5194/acp-22-1395-20221395–1423. Abstract
The iron-oxide content of dust in the atmosphere and most notably its apportionment between hematite (α-Fe2O3) and goethite (α-FeOOH) are key determinants in quantifying dust's light absorption, its top of atmosphere ultraviolet (UV) radiances used for dust monitoring, and ultimately shortwave dust direct radiative effects (DREs). Hematite and goethite column mass concentrations and iron-oxide mass fractions of total dust mass concentration were retrieved from the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) measurements in the ultraviolet–visible (UV–Vis) channels. The retrievals were performed for dust-identified aerosol plumes over land using aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the spectral imaginary refractive index provided by the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm over six continental regions (North America, North Africa, West Asia, Central Asia, East Asia, and Australia). The dust particles are represented as an internal mixture of non-absorbing host and absorbing hematite and goethite. We use the Maxwell Garnett effective medium approximation with carefully selected complex refractive indices of hematite and goethite that produce mass fractions of iron-oxide species consistent with in situ values found in the literature to derive the hematite and goethite volumetric/mass concentrations from MAIAC EPIC products. We compared the retrieved hematite and goethite concentrations with in situ dust aerosol mineralogical content measurements, as well as with published data. Our data display variations within the published range of hematite, goethite, and iron-oxide mass fractions for pure-mineral-dust cases. A specific analysis is presented for 15 sites over the main dust-source regions. Sites in the central Sahara, Sahel, and Middle East exhibit a greater temporal variability of iron oxides relative to other sites. The Niger site (13.52∘ N, 2.63∘ E) is dominated by goethite over the Harmattan season with a median of ∼ 2 weight percentage (wt %) of iron oxide. The Saudi Arabia site (27.49∘ N, 41.98∘ E) over the Middle East also exhibited a surge of goethite content with the beginning of the shamal season. The Sahel dust is richer in iron oxide than Saharan and northern China dust except in summer. The Bodélé Depression area shows a distinctively lower iron-oxide concentration (∼ 1 wt %) throughout the year. Finally, we show that EPIC data allow the constraining of the hematite refractive index. Specifically, we select 5 out of 13 different hematite refractive indices that are widely variable in published laboratory studies by constraining the iron-oxide mass ratio to the known measured values. The provided climatology of hematite and goethite mass fractions across the main dust regions of Earth will be useful for dust shortwave DRE studies and climate modeling.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences phytoplankton in the tropical Pacific, with El Niño conditions suppressing productivity in the equatorial Pacific (EP) and placing nutritional stresses on marine ecosystems. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) Earth System Model version 4.1 (ESM4.1) captures observed ENSO-chlorophyll patterns (r = 0.57) much better than GFDL's previous ESM2M (r = 0.23). Most notably, the observed post-El Niño “chlorophyll rebound” is substantially improved in ESM4.1 (r = 0.52). We find that an anomalous increase in iron propagation from western Pacific (WP) subsurface to the cold tongue via the equatorial undercurrent (EUC) and subsequent post-El Niño surfacing, unresolved in ESM2M, is the primary driver of chlorophyll rebound. We also find that this chlorophyll rebound is augmented by high post-El Niño dust-iron deposition anomalies in the eastern EP. This post-El Niño chlorophyll rebound provides a previously unrecognized source of marine ecosystem resilience independent from the La Niña that sometimes follows.
California is one of the nation’s top agriculture producers and is vulnerable to extreme events such as droughts and heat waves. Concurrent extreme events may further stress water and energy resources, exerting greater adverse socioeconomic, environmental, and health impacts than individual events. Here we examine the features of compound drought, heat wave, and dust events in California during spring and summer. From 2003 to 2020, 16 compound events are found in warm seasons, with a mean duration of about four days. Compound events are characterized by enhanced surface temperature up to 4.5 °C over northern and western California, reduced soil moisture and vegetation density, and an increase in dust optical depth (DOD) by 0.05 to 0.1 over central to southern California. The enhanced DOD is largely associated with severe vegetation dieback that favors dust emissions and southeasterly wind anomalies that support northward transport of dust from source regions in southern California. Surface fine dust and PM2.5 concentrations also increase by more than 0.5 and 5 μg m-3, respectively, during compound events associated with both enhanced dust emissions and a relatively stable atmosphere that traps pollutants.
The development of the compound events is related to an anomalous high over the west coast in the lower to middle troposphere, a pattern favoring sinking motion and dry conditions in California. The anomalous high is embedded in a wave train that develops up to seven days before the events. In comparison with heat wave extremes alone, compound events show significantly higher DOD and lower vegetation density associated with droughts.
Réveillet, Marion, Marie Dumont, Simon Gascoin, Matthieu Lafaysse, Pierre Nabat, Aurélien Ribes, Rafife Nheili, Francois Tuzet, Martin Ménégoz, Samuel Morin, Ghislain Picard, and Paul Ginoux, September 2022: Black carbon and dust alter the response of mountain snow cover under climate change. Nature Communications, 13, 5279, DOI:10.1038/s41467-022-32501-y. Abstract
By darkening the snow surface, mineral dust and black carbon (BC) deposition enhances snowmelt and triggers numerous feedbacks. Assessments of their long-term impact at the regional scale are still largely missing despite the environmental and socio-economic implications of snow cover changes. Here we show, using numerical simulations, that dust and BC deposition advanced snowmelt by 17 ± 6 days on average in the French Alps and the Pyrenees over the 1979–2018 period. BC and dust also advanced by 10-15 days the peak melt water runoff, a substantial effect on the timing of water resources availability. We also demonstrate that the decrease in BC deposition since the 1980s moderates the impact of current warming on snow cover decline. Hence, accounting for changes in light-absorbing particles deposition is required to improve the accuracy of snow cover reanalyses and climate projections, that are crucial for better understanding the past and future evolution of mountain social-ecological systems.
Large wildfires reduce vegetation cover and soil moisture, leaving the temporally degraded landscapes an emergent source of dust emission. However, the global extent of post-fire dust events and their influencing factors remain unexplored. Using satellite measurements of active fires, aerosol abundance, vegetation cover and soil moisture from 2003 to 2020, here we show that 54% of the examined ~150,000 global large wildfires are followed by enhanced dust emission, producing substantial dust loadings for days to weeks over normally dust-free regions. The occurrence and duration of post-fire dust emission is controlled primarily by the extent of precedent wildfires and resultant vegetation anomalies and modulated secondarily by pre-fire drought conditions. The intensifying wildfires and drying soils during the studying period have made post-fire dust events one day longer, especially over extratropical forests and grasslands. With the predicted intensification of regional wildfires and concurrent droughts in the upcoming decades, our results indicate a future enhancement of sequential fire and dust extremes and their societal and ecological impacts.
Zhong, Qirui, Nick Schutgens, Guido R van der Werf, Twan van Noije, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E Bauer, Tero Mielonen, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Harri Kokkola, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, David Neubauer, Zak Kipling, Hitoshi Matsui, and Paul Ginoux, et al., August 2022: Satellite-based evaluation of AeroCom model bias in biomass burning regions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22(17), DOI:10.5194/acp-22-11009-202211009-11032. Abstract
Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by −93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.
Zhong, Qirui, Nick Schutgens, Guido R van der Werf, Twan van Noije, Susanne E Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tero Mielonen, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, David Neubauer, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Harri Kokkola, Hitoshi Matsui, and Paul Ginoux, et al., October 2022: Using modelled relationships and satellite observations to attribute modelled aerosol biases over biomass burning regions. Nature Communications, 13, 5914, DOI:10.1038/s41467-022-33680-4. Abstract
Biomass burning (BB) is a major source of aerosols that remain the most uncertain components of the global radiative forcing. Current global models have great difficulty matching observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) over BB regions. A common solution to address modelled AOD biases is scaling BB emissions. Using the relationship from an ensemble of aerosol models and satellite observations, we show that the bias in aerosol modelling results primarily from incorrect lifetimes and underestimated mass extinction coefficients. In turn, these biases seem to be related to incorrect precipitation and underestimated particle sizes. We further show that boosting BB emissions to correct AOD biases over the source region causes an overestimation of AOD in the outflow from Africa by 48%, leading to a double warming effect compared with when biases are simultaneously addressed for both aforementioned factors. Such deviations are particularly concerning in a warming future with increasing emissions from fires.
Gliß, Jonas, Augustin Mortier, Michael Schulz, Elisabeth Andrews, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E Bauer, Anna M K Benedictow, Huisheng Bian, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, and Paul Ginoux, et al., January 2021: AeroCom phase III multi-model evaluation of the aerosol life cycle and optical properties using ground- and space-based remote sensing as well as in situ observations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21(1), DOI:10.5194/acp-21-87-202187-128. Abstract
Within the framework of the AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) initiative, the state-of-the-art modelling of aerosol optical properties is assessed from 14 global models participating in the phase III control experiment (AP3). The models are similar to CMIP6/AerChemMIP Earth System Models (ESMs) and provide a robust multi-model ensemble. Inter-model spread of aerosol species lifetimes and emissions appears to be similar to that of mass extinction coefficients (MECs), suggesting that aerosol optical depth (AOD) uncertainties are associated with a broad spectrum of parameterised aerosol processes.
Total AOD is approximately the same as in AeroCom phase I (AP1) simulations. However, we find a 50 % decrease in the optical depth (OD) of black carbon (BC), attributable to a combination of decreased emissions and lifetimes. Relative contributions from sea salt (SS) and dust (DU) have shifted from being approximately equal in AP1 to SS contributing about 2∕3 of the natural AOD in AP3. This shift is linked with a decrease in DU mass burden, a lower DU MEC, and a slight decrease in DU lifetime, suggesting coarser DU particle sizes in AP3 compared to AP1.
Relative to observations, the AP3 ensemble median and most of the participating models underestimate all aerosol optical properties investigated, that is, total AOD as well as fine and coarse AOD (AODf, AODc), Ångström exponent (AE), dry surface scattering (SCdry), and absorption (ACdry) coefficients. Compared to AERONET, the models underestimate total AOD by ca. 21 % ± 20 % (as inferred from the ensemble median and interquartile range). Against satellite data, the ensemble AOD biases range from −37 % (MODIS-Terra) to −16 % (MERGED-FMI, a multi-satellite AOD product), which we explain by differences between individual satellites and AERONET measurements themselves. Correlation coefficients (R) between model and observation AOD records are generally high (R>0.75), suggesting that the models are capable of capturing spatio-temporal variations in AOD. We find a much larger underestimate in coarse AODc (∼ −45 % ± 25 %) than in fine AODf (∼ −15 % ± 25 %) with slightly increased inter-model spread compared to total AOD. These results indicate problems in the modelling of DU and SS. The AODc bias is likely due to missing DU over continental land masses (particularly over the United States, SE Asia, and S. America), while marine AERONET sites and the AATSR SU satellite data suggest more moderate oceanic biases in AODc.
Column AEs are underestimated by about 10 % ± 16 %. For situations in which measurements show AE > 2, models underestimate AERONET AE by ca. 35 %. In contrast, all models (but one) exhibit large overestimates in AE when coarse aerosol dominates (bias ca. +140 % if observed AE < 0.5). Simulated AE does not span the observed AE variability. These results indicate that models overestimate particle size (or underestimate the fine-mode fraction) for fine-dominated aerosol and underestimate size (or overestimate the fine-mode fraction) for coarse-dominated aerosol. This must have implications for lifetime, water uptake, scattering enhancement, and the aerosol radiative effect, which we can not quantify at this moment.
Comparison against Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) in situ data results in mean bias and inter-model variations of −35 % ± 25 % and −20 % ± 18 % for SCdry and ACdry, respectively. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ACdry suggests the models will simulate an aerosol single scattering albedo that is too low. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ambient air AOD is consistent with recent findings that models overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. The broadly consistent negative bias in AOD and surface scattering suggests an underestimate of aerosol radiative effects in current global aerosol models.
Considerable inter-model diversity in the simulated optical properties is often found in regions that are, unfortunately, not or only sparsely covered by ground-based observations. This includes, for instance, the Sahara, Amazonia, central Australia, and the South Pacific. This highlights the need for a better site coverage in the observations, which would enable us to better assess the models, but also the performance of satellite products in these regions.
Using fine-mode AOD as a proxy for present-day aerosol forcing estimates, our results suggest that models underestimate aerosol forcing by ca. −15 %, however, with a considerably large interquartile range, suggesting a spread between −35 % and +10 %.
Klose, Martina, Oriol Jorba, Maria Gonçalves Ageitos, Jeronimo Escribano, Matthew L Dawson, Vincenzo Obiso, Enza Di Tomaso, Sara Basart, Gilbert Montané Pinto, Francesca Macchia, and Paul Ginoux, et al., October 2021: Mineral dust cycle in the Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry model (MONARCH) version 2.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 14(10), DOI:10.5194/gmd-14-6403-20216403–6444. Abstract
We present the dust module in the Multiscale Online Non-hydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry model (MONARCH) version 2.0, a chemical weather prediction system that can be used for regional and global modeling at a range of resolutions. The representations of dust processes in MONARCH were upgraded with a focus on dust emission (emission parameterizations, entrainment thresholds, considerations of soil moisture and surface cover), lower boundary conditions (roughness, potential dust sources), and dust–radiation interactions. MONARCH now allows modeling of global and regional mineral dust cycles using fundamentally different paradigms, ranging from strongly simplified to physics-based parameterizations. We present a detailed description of these updates along with four global benchmark simulations, which use conceptually different dust emission parameterizations, and we evaluate the simulations against observations of dust optical depth. We determine key dust parameters, such as global annual emission/deposition flux, dust loading, dust optical depth, mass-extinction efficiency, single-scattering albedo, and direct radiative effects. For dust-particle diameters up to 20 µm, the total annual dust emission and deposition fluxes obtained with our four experiments range between about 3500 and 6000 Tg, which largely depend upon differences in the emitted size distribution. Considering ellipsoidal particle shapes and dust refractive indices that account for size-resolved mineralogy, we estimate the global total (longwave and shortwave) dust direct radiative effect (DRE) at the surface to range between about −0.90 and −0.63 W m−2 and at the top of the atmosphere between −0.20 and −0.28 W m−2. Our evaluation demonstrates that MONARCH is able to reproduce key features of the spatiotemporal variability of the global dust cycle with important and insightful differences between the different configurations.
Li, Longlei, Natalie M. Mahowald, Ron L. Miller, Carlos Pérez Garcia-Pando, Martina Klose, Douglas S. Hamilton, Maria Gonçalves Ageitos, Paul Ginoux, Yves Balkanski, Robert O. Green, Olga V Kalashnikova, Jasper F. Kok, Vincenzo Obiso, David J Paynter, and David R. Thompson, March 2021: Quantifying the range of the dust direct radiative effect due to source mineralogy uncertainty. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21(5), DOI:10.5194/acp-21-3973-20213973-4005. Abstract
The large uncertainty in the mineral dust direct radiative effect (DRE) hinders projections of future climate change due to anthropogenic activity. Resolving modeled dust mineral speciation allows for spatially and temporally varying refractive indices consistent with dust aerosol composition. Here, for the first time, we quantify the range in dust DRE at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) due to current uncertainties in the surface soil mineralogical content using a dust mineral-resolving climate model. We propagate observed uncertainties in soil mineral abundances from two soil mineralogy atlases along with the optical properties of each mineral into the DRE and compare the resultant range with other sources of uncertainty across six climate models. The shortwave DRE responds region-specifically to the dust burden depending on the mineral speciation and underlying shortwave surface albedo: positively when the regionally averaged annual surface albedo is larger than 0.28 and negatively otherwise. Among all minerals examined, the shortwave TOA DRE and single scattering albedo at the 0.44–0.63 µm band are most sensitive to the fractional contribution of iron oxides to the total dust composition. The global net (shortwave plus longwave) TOA DRE is estimated to be within −0.23 to +0.35 W m−2. Approximately 97 % of this range relates to uncertainty in the soil abundance of iron oxides. Representing iron oxide with solely hematite optical properties leads to an overestimation of shortwave DRE by +0.10 W m−2 at the TOA, as goethite is not as absorbing as hematite in the shortwave spectrum range. Our study highlights the importance of iron oxides to the shortwave DRE: they have a disproportionally large impact on climate considering their small atmospheric mineral mass fractional burden (∼2 %). An improved description of iron oxides, such as those planned in the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT), is thus essential for more accurate estimates of the dust DRE.
Meng, Jun, Randall V Martin, and Paul Ginoux, et al., July 2021: Grid-independent high-resolution dust emissions (v1.0) for chemical transport models: application to GEOS-Chem (12.5.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 14(7), DOI:10.5194/gmd-14-4249-20214249-4260. Abstract
The nonlinear dependence of the dust saltation process on wind speed poses a challenge for models of varying resolutions. This challenge is of particular relevance for the next generation of chemical transport models with nimble capability for multiple resolutions. We develop and apply a method to harmonize dust emissions across simulations of different resolutions by generating offline grid-independent dust emissions driven by native high-resolution meteorological fields. We implement into the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model a high-resolution dust source function to generate updated offline dust emissions. These updated offline dust emissions based on high-resolution meteorological fields strengthen dust emissions over relatively weak dust source regions, such as in southern South America, southern Africa and the southwestern United States. Identification of an appropriate dust emission strength is facilitated by the resolution independence of offline emissions. We find that the performance of simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) versus measurements from the AERONET network and satellite remote sensing improves significantly when using the updated offline dust emissions with the total global annual dust emission strength of 2000 Tg yr−1 rather than the standard online emissions in GEOS-Chem. The updated simulation also better represents in situ measurements from a global climatology. The offline high-resolution dust emissions are easily implemented in chemical transport models. The source code and global offline high-resolution dust emission inventory are publicly available.
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic led to a widespread reduction in aerosol emissions. Using satellite observations and climate model simulations, we study the underlying mechanisms of the large decreases in solar clear‐sky reflection (3.8 W m−2 or 7%) and aerosol optical depth (0.16 W m−2 or 32%) observed over the East Asian Marginal Seas in March 2020. By separating the impacts from meteorology and emissions in the model simulations, we find that about one‐third of the clear‐sky anomalies can be attributed to pandemic‐related emission reductions, and the rest to weather variability and long‐term emission trends. The model is skillful at reproducing the observed interannual variations in solar all‐sky reflection, but no COVID‐19 signal is discerned. The current observational and modeling capabilities will be critical for monitoring, understanding, and predicting the radiative forcing and climate impacts of the ongoing crisis.
Sand, Maria, Bjørn H Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Jonas Gliß, Susanne E Bauer, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, and Paul Ginoux, et al., October 2021: Aerosol absorption in global models from AeroCom phase III. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21(20), DOI:10.5194/acp-21-15929-202115929–15947. Abstract
Aerosol-induced absorption of shortwave radiation can modify the climate through local atmospheric heating, which affects lapse rates, precipitation, and cloud formation. Presently, the total amount of aerosol absorption is poorly constrained, and the main absorbing aerosol species (black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA), and mineral dust) are diversely quantified in global climate models. As part of the third phase of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) intercomparison initiative (AeroCom phase III), we here document the distribution and magnitude of aerosol absorption in current global aerosol models and quantify the sources of intermodel spread, highlighting the difficulties of attributing absorption to different species. In total, 15 models have provided total present-day absorption at 550 nm (using year 2010 emissions), 11 of which have provided absorption per absorbing species. The multi-model global annual mean total absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) is 0.0054 (0.0020 to 0.0098; 550 nm), with the range given as the minimum and maximum model values. This is 28 % higher compared to the 0.0042 (0.0021 to 0.0076) multi-model mean in AeroCom phase II (using year 2000 emissions), but the difference is within 1 standard deviation, which, in this study, is 0.0023 (0.0019 in Phase II). Of the summed component AAOD, 60 % (range 36 %–84 %) is estimated to be due to BC, 31 % (12 %–49 %) is due to dust, and 11 % (0 %–24 %) is due to OA; however, the components are not independent in terms of their absorbing efficiency. In models with internal mixtures of absorbing aerosols, a major challenge is the lack of a common and simple method to attribute absorption to the different absorbing species. Therefore, when possible, the models with internally mixed aerosols in the present study have performed simulations using the same method for estimating absorption due to BC, OA, and dust, namely by removing it and comparing runs with and without the absorbing species. We discuss the challenges of attributing absorption to different species; we compare burden, refractive indices, and density; and we contrast models with internal mixing to models with external mixing. The model mean BC mass absorption coefficient (MAC) value is 10.1 (3.1 to 17.7) m2 g−1 (550 nm), and the model mean BC AAOD is 0.0030 (0.0007 to 0.0077). The difference in lifetime (and burden) in the models explains as much of the BC AAOD spread as the difference in BC MAC values. The difference in the spectral dependency between the models is striking. Several models have an absorption Ångstrøm exponent (AAE) close to 1, which likely is too low given current knowledge of spectral aerosol optical properties. Most models do not account for brown carbon and underestimate the spectral dependency for OA.
Song, Qianqian, Zhibo Zhang, Hongbin Yu, Paul Ginoux, and Jerry Shen, September 2021: Global dust optical depth climatology derived from CALIOP and MODIS aerosol retrievals on decadal timescales: Regional and interannual variability. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21(17), DOI:10.5194/acp-21-13369-202113369-13395. Abstract
We derived two observation-based global monthly mean dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) climatological datasets from 2007 to 2019 with a 2∘ (latitude) × 5∘ (longitude) spatial resolution, one based on Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and the other on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations. In addition, the CALIOP climatological dataset also includes dust vertical extinction profiles. Dust is distinguished from non-dust aerosols based on particle shape information (e.g., lidar depolarization ratio) for CALIOP and on dust size and absorption information (e.g., fine-mode fraction, Ångström exponent, and single-scattering albedo) for MODIS, respectively. The two datasets compare reasonably well with the results reported in previous studies and the collocated Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) coarse-mode AOD. Based on these two datasets, we carried out a comprehensive comparative study of the spatial and temporal climatology of dust. On a multi-year average basis, the global (60∘ S–60∘ N) annual mean DAOD is 0.032 and 0.067 according to CALIOP and MODIS retrievals, respectively. In most dust-active regions, CALIOP DAOD generally correlates well (correlation coefficient R>0.6) with the MODIS DAOD, although the CALIOP value is significantly smaller. The CALIOP DAOD is 18 %, 34 %, 54 %, and 31 % smaller than MODIS DAOD over the Sahara, the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Arabian Sea, respectively. Applying a regional specific lidar ratio (LR) of 58 sr instead of the 44 sr used in the CALIOP operational retrieval reduces the difference from 18 % to 8 % over the Sahara and from 34 % to 12 % over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, over eastern Asia and the northwestern Pacific Ocean (NWP), the two datasets show weak correlation. Despite these discrepancies, CALIOP and MODIS show similar seasonal and interannual variations in regional DAOD. For dust aerosol over the NWP, both CALIOP and MODIS show a declining trend of DAOD at a rate of about 2 % yr−1. This decreasing trend is consistent with the observed declining trend of DAOD in the southern Gobi Desert at a rate of 3 % yr−1 and 5 % yr−1 according to CALIOP and MODIS, respectively. The decreasing trend of DAOD in the southern Gobi Desert is in turn found to be significantly correlated with increasing vegetation and decreasing surface wind speed in the area.
Su, Wenying, Lusheng Liang, Gunnar Myhre, Tyler J Thorsen, Norman G Loeb, Gregory L Schuster, Paul Ginoux, and Fabien Paulot, et al., September 2021: Understanding top-of-atmosphere flux bias in the AeroCom phase III models: A clear-sky perspective. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13(9), DOI:10.1029/2021MS002584. Abstract
Biases in aerosol optical depths (AOD) and land surface albedos in the AeroCom models are manifested in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) clear-sky reflected shortwave (SW) fluxes. Biases in the SW fluxes from AeroCom models are quantitatively related to biases in AOD and land surface albedo by using their radiative kernels. Over ocean, AOD contributes about 25% to the 60°S - 60°N mean SW flux bias for the multi-model mean (MMM) result. Over land, AOD and land surface albedo contribute about 40% and 30%, respectively, to the 60°S - 60°N mean SW flux bias for the MMM result. Furthermore, the spatial patterns of the SW flux biases derived from the radiative kernels are very similar to those between models and CERES observation, with the correlation coefficient of 0.6 over ocean and 0.76 over land for MMM using data of 2010. Satellite data used in this evaluation are derived independently from each other, consistencies in their bias patterns when compared with model simulations suggest that these patterns are robust. This highlights the importance of evaluating related variables in a synergistic manner to provide an unambiguous assessment of the models, as results from single parameter assessments are often confounded by measurement uncertainty. Model biases in land surface albedos can and must be corrected to accurately calculate TOA flux. We also compare the AOD trend from three models with the observation-based counterpart. These models reproduce all notable trends in AOD except the decreasing trend over eastern China and the adjacent oceanic regions due to limitations in the emission data set.
Szopa, Sophie, Vaishali Naik, Bhupesh Adhikary, Paulo Artaxo, Terje Berntsen, William D Collins, Sandro Fuzzi, Laura Gallardo, Astrid Kiendler-Scharr, Zbigniew Klimont, Hong Liao, Nadine Unger, Prodromos Zanis, Paul Ginoux, Jian He, and Fabien Paulot, et al., August 2021: Short-Lived Climate Forcers In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, Cambridge University Press, DOI:10.1017/9781009157896.008817-922.
Tau, Guy, Onn Crouvi, Yehouda Enzel, Nadya Teutsch, Paul Ginoux, and Craig Rasmussen, April 2021: Shutting down dust emission during the middle Holocene drought in the Sonoran Desert, Arizona, USA. Geology, 49, DOI:10.1130/G48550.1. Abstract
Long-term relationships between climate and dust emission remain unclear, with two prevailing but opposite hypotheses for effects of climate shifts: (1) increased dust emission due to increasing aridity imposing a vegetation change, or (2) decreased dust emission due to increasing aridity which imposes less stormy climate and reduced sediment supply. Here we test these hypotheses by analyzing an ~11-m-long core archiving Holocene dust trapped in Montezuma Well, a natural sinkhole in Arizona (southwestern United States), alongside current dust sources and transport pathways. Major elements indicate that Montezuma Well sediments originate from two end members: local carbonate bedrock and external siliceous dust. Core sediments are similar to the adjacent siliceous soils accumulated atop the bedrock, pointing to their eolian origin. Particle-size distributions reveal fine dust transported during winter from the northwestern Sonoran Desert and the Mojave Desert and coarse dust transported during summer from the southwestern Sonoran Desert, similar to current climate systems and dust pathways. A survey of potential dust sources indicates that current summer and winter dust sources in the Sonoran Desert are under a supply-limited state. Dust fluxes were higher during wetter phases of the Holocene when winter sources dominated. During the middle Holocene drought, dust fluxes were minimal and dominated by summer sources until dust input ceased as drought conditions did not produce enough floods to refill sources with sediments. We propose that in the Sonoran Desert, dust emission is strongly connected with climate, increasing during humid intervals and enhanced by fluvial sediment replenishment at dust sources.
July 2019 saw record-breaking wildfires burning 3,600 km2 in Alaska. The GFDL Earth system model indicates a threefold increased risk of Alaska’s
extreme fires during recent decades due to primarily anthropogenic ignition and secondarily climate-induced biofuel abundance.
Yu, Yan, and Paul Ginoux, June 2021: Assessing the contribution of the ENSO and MJO to Australian dust activity based on satellite- and ground-based observations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21(11), DOI:10.5194/acp-21-8511-20218511-8530. Abstract
Despite Australian dust's critical role in the regional climate and surrounding marine ecosystems, the controlling factors of the spatiotemporal variations of Australian dust are not fully understood. Here we assess the connections between observed spatiotemporal variations of Australian dust with key modes of large-scale climate variability, namely the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Multiple dust observations from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), weather stations, and satellite instruments, namely the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), are examined. The assessed multiple dust observations consistently identify the natural and agricultural dust hotspots in Australia, including the Lake Eyre basin, Lake Torrens basin, Lake Frome basin, Simpson Desert, Barwon–Darling basin, Riverina, Barkly Tableland, and the lee side of the Great Dividing Range, as well as a country-wide, austral spring-to-summer peak in dust activity. Our regression analysis of observed dust optical depth (DOD) upon an ocean Niño index confirms previous model-based findings on the enhanced dust activity in southern and eastern Australia during the subsequent austral spring and summer dust season following the strengthening of austral wintertime El Niño. Our analysis further indicates the modulation of the ENSO–dust relationship with the MJO phases. During sequential MJO phases, the dust-active center moves from west to east, associated with the eastward propagation of MJO, with the maximum enhancement in dust activity at about 120, 130, and 140∘ E, corresponding to MJO phases 1–2, 3–4, and 5–6, respectively. MJO phases 3–6 are favorable for enhanced ENSO modulation of dust activity, especially the occurrence of extreme dust events, in southeastern Australia, currently hypothesized to be attributed to the interaction between MJO-induced anomalies in convection and wind and ENSO-induced anomalies in soil moisture and vegetation.
We document the development and simulation characteristics of the next generation modeling system for seasonal to decadal prediction and projection at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). SPEAR (Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research) is built from component models recently developed at GFDL ‐ the AM4 atmosphere model, MOM6 ocean code, LM4 land model and SIS2 sea ice model. The SPEAR models are specifically designed with attributes needed for a prediction model for seasonal to decadal time scales, including the ability to run large ensembles of simulations with available computational resources. For computational speed SPEAR uses a coarse ocean resolution of approximately 1.0o (with tropical refinement). SPEAR can use differing atmospheric horizontal resolutions ranging from 1o to 0.25o. The higher atmospheric resolution facilitates improved simulation of regional climate and extremes. SPEAR is built from the same components as the GFDL CM4 and ESM 4 models, but with design choices geared toward seasonal to multidecadal physical climate prediction and projection. We document simulation characteristics for the time‐mean climate, aspects of internal variability, and the response to both idealized and realistic radiative forcing change. We describe in greater detail one focus of the model development process that was motivated by the importance of the Southern Ocean to the global climate system. We present sensitivity tests that document the influence of the Antarctic surface heat budget on Southern Ocean ventilation and deep global ocean circulation. These findings were also useful in the development processes for the GFDL CM4 and ESM 4 models.
We describe the baseline coupled model configuration and simulation characteristics of GFDL's Earth System Model Version 4.1 (ESM4.1), which builds on component and coupled model developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon‐chemistry‐climate simulation contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's CM4.0 development effort that focuses on ocean resolution for physical climate, ESM4.1 focuses on comprehensiveness of Earth system interactions. ESM4.1 features doubled horizontal resolution of both atmosphere (2° to 1°) and ocean (1° to 0.5°) relative to GFDL's previous‐generation coupled ESM2‐carbon and CM3‐chemistry models. ESM4.1 brings together key representational advances in CM4.0 dynamics and physics along with those in aerosols and their precursor emissions, land ecosystem vegetation and canopy competition, and multiday fire; ocean ecological and biogeochemical interactions, comprehensive land‐atmosphere‐ocean cycling of CO2, dust and iron, and interactive ocean‐atmosphere nitrogen cycling are described in detail across this volume of JAMES and presented here in terms of the overall coupling and resulting fidelity. ESM4.1 provides much improved fidelity in CO2 and chemistry over ESM2 and CM3, captures most of CM4.0's baseline simulations characteristics, and notably improves on CM4.0 in (1) Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water ventilation, (2) Southern Ocean aerosols, and (3) reduced spurious ocean heat uptake. ESM4.1 has reduced transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity compared to CM4.0. Fidelity concerns include (1) moderate degradation in sea surface temperature biases, (2) degradation in aerosols in some regions, and (3) strong centennial scale climate modulation by Southern Ocean convection.
Evans, Stuart, Eliza Dawson, and Paul Ginoux, November 2020: Linear relation between shifting ITCZ and dust hemispheric asymmetry. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(22), DOI:10.1029/2020GL090499. Abstract
Mineral dust is emitted primarily from arid regions, which may shrink or expand in one or both hemispheres, producing a complex and asymmetric pattern of radiative forcing that varies on interannual to millennial timescales. We assess the impact of hemispheric dust asymmetry on tropical precipitation. Using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate model CM3 to simulate dust emission, we vary source strength in each hemisphere individually. Hemispherically asymmetric dust emission produces asymmetric dust load and radiative forcing. We find that the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts away from the hemisphere with enhanced dust load in response to the forcing asymmetry. We find significant linear relationships between the hemispheric imbalance and the latitude of tropical precipitation globally, in the Pacific, and especially in the Atlantic basin. This relationship offers a first-order estimation of dust effects on the hydrological cycle when investigating records of paleodust and for accurately predicting dust effects and feedbacks on future climate.
We describe the baseline model configuration and simulation characteristics of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s Atmosphere Model version 4.1 (AM4.1), which builds on developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon‐chemistry‐climate simulation as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's AM4.0 development effort, which focused on physical and aerosol interactions and which is used as the atmospheric component of CM4.0, AM4.1 focuses on comprehensiveness of Earth system interactions. Key features of this model include doubled horizontal resolution of the atmosphere (~200 to ~100 km) with revised dynamics and physics from GFDL's previous‐generation AM3 atmospheric chemistry‐climate model. AM4.1 features improved representation of atmospheric chemical composition, including aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions, key land‐atmosphere interactions, comprehensive land‐atmosphere‐ocean cycling of dust and iron, and interactive ocean‐atmosphere cycling of reactive nitrogen. AM4.1 provides vast improvements in fidelity over AM3, captures most of AM4.0's baseline simulations characteristics, and notably improves on AM4.0 in the representation of aerosols over the Southern Ocean, India, and China—even with its interactive chemistry representation—and in its manifestation of sudden stratospheric warmings in the coldest months. Distributions of reactive nitrogen and sulfur species, carbon monoxide, and ozone are all substantially improved over AM3. Fidelity concerns include degradation of upper atmosphere equatorial winds and of aerosols in some regions.
Mortier, Augustin, Jonas Gliß, M Schulz, Wenche Aas, Elisabeth Andrews, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, and Paul Ginoux, et al., November 2020: Evaluation of climate model aerosol trends with ground-based observations over the last 2 decades – an AeroCom and CMIP6 analysis. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20, DOI:10.5194/acp-20-13355-202013355-13378. Abstract
This study presents a multiparameter analysis of aerosol trends over the last 2 decades at regional and global scales. Regional time series have been computed for a set of nine optical, chemical-composition and mass aerosol properties by using the observations from several ground-based networks. From these regional time series the aerosol trends have been derived for the different regions of the world. Most of the properties related to aerosol loading exhibit negative trends, both at the surface and in the total atmospheric column. Significant decreases in aerosol optical depth (AOD) are found in Europe, North America, South America, North Africa and Asia, ranging from −1.2 % yr−1 to −3.1 % yr−1. An error and representativity analysis of the spatially and temporally limited observational data has been performed using model data subsets in order to investigate how much the observed trends represent the actual trends happening in the regions over the full study period from 2000 to 2014. This analysis reveals that significant uncertainty is associated with some of the regional trends due to time and space sampling deficiencies. The set of observed regional trends has then been used for the evaluation of 10 models (6 AeroCom phase III models and 4 CMIP6 models) and the CAMS reanalysis dataset and of their skills in reproducing the aerosol trends. Model performance is found to vary depending on the parameters and the regions of the world. The models tend to capture trends in AOD, the column Ångström exponent, sulfate and particulate matter well (except in North Africa), but they show larger discrepancies for coarse-mode AOD. The rather good agreement of the trends, across different aerosol parameters between models and observations, when co-locating them in time and space, implies that global model trends, including those in poorly monitored regions, are likely correct. The models can help to provide a global picture of the aerosol trends by filling the gaps in regions not covered by observations. The calculation of aerosol trends at a global scale reveals a different picture from that depicted by solely relying on ground-based observations. Using a model with complete diagnostics (NorESM2), we find a global increase in AOD of about 0.2 % yr−1 between 2000 and 2014, primarily caused by an increase in the loads of organic aerosols, sulfate and black carbon.
Recent laboratory and field studies point to an increase of sea salt aerosol (SSA) emissions with temperature, suggesting that SSA may lower climate sensitivity. We assess the impact of a strong (4.2 % K‐1) and weak (0.7% K‐1) temperature response of SSA emissions on the climate sensitivity of the coupled climate model CM4. We find that the stronger temperature dependence improves the simulation of marine aerosol optical depth sensitivity to temperature and lowers CM4 Transient Climate Response (‐0.12K) and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (‐0.5K). At CO2 doubling, the higher SSA emission sensitivity causes a negative radiative feedback (‐0.125 W m‐2 K‐1), which can only be partly explained by changes in the radiative effect of SSA (‐0.08 W m‐2 K‐1). Stronger radiative feedbacks are dominated by more negative low‐level clouds feedbacks in the Northern Hemisphere, which are partly offset by more positive feedbacks in the Southern Hemisphere associated with a weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
Dust emission is initiated when surface wind velocities exceed the threshold of wind erosion. Most dust models used constant threshold values globally. Here we use satellite products to characterize the frequency of dust events and surface properties. By matching this frequency derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue aerosol products with surface winds, we are able to retrieve a climatological monthly global distribution of wind erosion threshold (Vthreshold) over dry and sparsely-vegetated surface. This monthly two-dimensional threshold velocity is then implemented into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled land-atmosphere model (AM4.0/LM4.0). It is found that the climatology of dust optical depth (DOD) and total aerosol optical depth, surface PM10 dust concentrations, and seasonal cycle of DOD are better captured over the dust belt (i.e. North Africa and the Middle East) by simulations with the new wind erosion threshold than those using the default globally constant threshold. The most significant improvement is the frequency distribution of dust events, which is generally ignored in model evaluation. By using monthly rather than annual mean Vthreshold, all comparisons with observations are further improved. The monthly global threshold of wind erosion can be retrieved under different spatial resolutions to match the resolution of dust models and thus can help improve the simulations of dust climatology and seasonal cycle as well as dust forecasting.
This contribution describes the ocean biogeochemical component of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 4.1 (GFDL‐ESM4.1), assesses GFDL‐ESM4.1's capacity to capture observed ocean biogeochemical patterns, and documents its response to increasing atmospheric CO2. Notable differences relative to the previous generation of GFDL ESM's include enhanced resolution of plankton food web dynamics, refined particle remineralization, and a larger number of exchanges of nutrients across Earth system components. During model spin‐up, the carbon drift rapidly fell below the 10 Pg C per century equilibration criterion established by the Coupled Climate‐Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). Simulations robustly captured large‐scale observed nutrient distributions, plankton dynamics, and characteristics of the biological pump. The model overexpressed phosphate limitation and open ocean hypoxia in some areas but still yielded realistic surface and deep carbon system properties, including cumulative carbon uptake since preindustrial times and over the last decades that is consistent with observation‐based estimates. The model's response to the direct and radiative effects of a 200% atmospheric CO2 increase from preindustrial conditions (i.e., years 101–120 of a 1% CO2 yr−1 simulation) included (a) a weakened, shoaling organic carbon pump leading to a 38% reduction in the sinking flux at 2,000 m; (b) a two‐thirds reduction in the calcium carbonate pump that nonetheless generated only weak calcite compensation on century time‐scales; and, in contrast to previous GFDL ESMs, (c) a moderate reduction in global net primary production that was amplified at higher trophic levels. We conclude with a discussion of model limitations and priority developments.
Yu, Yan, Olga V Kalashnikova, Michael J Garay, Huikyo Lee, Michael Notaro, James R Campbell, Jared Marquis, Paul Ginoux, and Gregory S Okin, July 2020: Disproving the Bodélé Depression as the Primary Source of Dust Fertilizing the Amazon Rainforest. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(13), DOI:10.1029/2020GL088020. Abstract
Motivated by the ongoing debates about the relative contribution of specific North African dust sources to the transatlantic dust transport to the Amazon Basin, the current study integrates a suite of satellite observations into a novel trajectory analysis framework to investigate dust transport from the leading two North African dust sources, namely, the Bodélé depression and El Djouf. In particular, this approach provides observation‐constrained quantification of the dust's dry and wet deposition along its transport pathways and is validated against multiple satellite observations. The current large ensemble trajectory simulations identify favorable transport pathways from the El Djouf across the Atlantic Ocean with respect to seasonal rain belts. The limited potential for long‐range transport of dust from the Bodélé depression is attributed to the currently identified extensive near‐source dust removal primarily by dry and wet deposition during boreal winter and summer, respectively.
Many studies have been conducted on the effects of dust on rainfall in the Sahel, and generally show that African dust weakens the West African Monsoon, drying the region. This drying is often assumed to produce a positive dust‐precipitation feedback by reducing vegetation cover for the region. We directly test this relationship for the first time by using a model that explicitly simulates vegetation growth and its impact on dust emission. There are several competing effects of dust that affect plant growth: changes to rainfall, downwelling solar radiation, surface temperature, and resultant changes in surface fluxes. Our model finds that the combined effect of these processes decreases vegetation cover and productivity of the Sahel and West Africa. We determine this by comparing experiments with radiatively active dust to experiments with radiatively invisible dust. In modern conditions, the dust radiative effect decreases leaf area by 12%, productivity by 14%, and increases bare soil area by 3% across the Sahel, and by much higher amounts locally. Experiments where the vegetation experiences preindustrial rather than modern CO2 levels show that without stomatal closure, the reductions would be approximately 20‐40% stronger. In preindustrial conditions the vegetation response is weaker, despite the dust‐induced rainfall and temperature anomalies being similar. We interpret this as the vegetation being less susceptible to drought in a less evaporative climate. These vegetation responses to dust are evidence of a dust‐vegetation feedback loop whose strength varies with the mean state of the climate, and which may grow stronger in the future.
Mixed-phase clouds are frequently observed in the atmosphere. Here we present a parameterization for ice crystal concentration and ice nucleation rate based on parcel model simulations for mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds, in complement to a previous parameterization for stratus clouds. The parcel model uses a singular (time-independent) description for deposition nucleation and a time-dependent description for condensation nucleation and immersion freezing on mineral dust particles. The mineral dust and temperature-dependent parameterizations have been implemented in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory atmosphere model AM4.0 (new), while the standard AM4.0 (original) uses a temperature-dependent parameterization. Model simulations with the new and original AM4.0 show significant changes in cloud properties and radiative effects. In comparison to measurements, cloud-phase (i.e., liquid and ice partitioning) simulation appears to be improved in the new AM4.0 model. More supercooled liquid cloud is predicted in the new model, it is sustained even at temperatures lower than -25 °C unlike in the original model. A more accurate accounting of ice nucleating particles and ice crystals is essential for improved cloud phase simulation in the global atmosphere.
We describe GFDL's CM4.0 physical climate model, with emphasis on those aspects that may be of particular importance to users of this model and its simulations. The model is built with the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model and OM4.0 ocean model. Topics include the rationale for key choices made in the model formulation, the stability as well as drift of the pre‐industrial control simulation, and comparison of key aspects of the historical simulations with observations from recent decades. Notable achievements include the relatively small biases in seasonal spatial patterns of top‐of‐atmosphere fluxes, surface temperature, and precipitation; reduced double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias; dramatically improved representation of ocean boundary currents; a high quality simulation of climatological Arctic sea ice extent and its recent decline; and excellent simulation of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation spectrum and structure. Areas of concern include inadequate deep convection in the Nordic Seas; an inaccurate Antarctic sea ice simulation; precipitation and wind composites still affected by the equatorial cold tongue bias; muted variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; strong 100 year quasi‐periodicity in Southern Ocean ventilation; and a lack of historical warming before 1990 and too rapid warming thereafter due to high climate sensitivity and strong aerosol forcing, in contrast to the observational record. Overall, CM4.0 scores very well in its fidelity against observations compared to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 generation in terms of both mean state and modes of variability and should prove a valuable new addition for analysis across a broad array of applications.
Most dust forecast models focus on a short, sub‐seasonal lead times, i.e., three to six days, and the skill of seasonal prediction is not clear. In this study we examine the potential of seasonal dust prediction in the U.S. using an observation‐constrained regression model and key variables predicted by a seasonal prediction model developed at NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, the Forecast‐Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) Model.
Our method shows skillful predictions of spring dustiness three to six months in advance. It is found that the regression model explains about 71% of the variances of dust event frequency over the Great Plains and 63% over the southwestern U.S. in March‐May from 2004 to 2016 using predictors from FLOR initialized on December 1st. Variations in springtime dustiness are dominated by springtime climatic factors rather than wintertime factors. Findings here will help development of a seasonal dust prediction system and hazard prevention.
Querol, X, A Tobias, N Perez, A M Stafoggia, Carlos Pérez Garcia-Pando, and Paul Ginoux, et al., September 2019: Monitoring the impact of desert dust outbreaks for air quality for health studies. Environment International, 130, DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2019.05.061. Abstract
We review the major features of desert dust outbreaks that are relevant to the assessment of dust impacts upon human health. Our ultimate goal is to provide scientific guidance for the acquisition of relevant population exposure information for epidemiological studies tackling the short and long term health effects of desert dust. We first describe the source regions and the typical levels of dust particles in regions close and far away from the source areas, along with their size, composition, and bio-aerosol load. We then describe the processes by which dust may become mixed with anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) and/or alter its load in receptor areas. Short term health effects are found during desert dust episodes in different regions of the world, but in a number of cases the results differ when it comes to associate the effects to the bulk PM, the desert dust-PM, or non-desert dust-PM. These differences are likely due to the different monitoring strategies applied in the epidemiological studies, and to the differences on atmospheric and emission (natural and anthropogenic) patterns of desert dust around the world. We finally propose methods to allow the discrimination of health effects by PM fraction during dust outbreaks, and a strategy to implement desert dust alert and monitoring systems for health studies and air quality management.
A central strategy in achieving greenhouse gas mitigation targets is the transition of vehicles from internal combustion engines to electric power. However, due to complex emission sources and nonlinear chemistry, it is unclear how such a shift might impact air quality. Here we apply a prototype version of the new-generation NOAA GFDL global Atmospheric Model, version 4 (GFDL AM4) to investigate the impact on U.S. air quality from an aggressive conversion of internal combustion vehicles to battery-powered electric vehicles (EVs). We examine a suite of scenarios designed to quantify the effect of both the magnitude of EV market penetration and the source of electricity generation used to power them. We find that summer surface ozone (O3) decreases in most locations due to widespread reductions of traffic NOx emissions. Summer fine particulate matter (PM2.5) increases on average and largest in areas with increased coal-fired power generation demands. Winter O3 increases due to reduced loss via traffic NOx while PM2.5 decreases since larger ammonium nitrate reductions offset increases in ammonium sulfate. The largest magnitude changes are simulated at the extremes of the probability distribution. Increasing the fraction of vehicles converted to EVs further decreases summer O3, while increasing the fraction of electricity generated by “emission-free” sources largely eliminates the increases in summer PM2.5 at high EV adoption fractions. Ultimately, the number of conventional vehicles replaced by EVs has a larger effect on O3 than PM2.5, while the source of the electricity for those EVs exhibit greater control on PM2.5.
We present observation and model-based estimates of the changes in the direct shortwave effect of aerosols under clear-sky (SDRECS) from 2001 to 2015. Observation-based estimates are obtained from changes in the outgoing shortwave clear-sky radiation (Rsutcs) measured by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), accounting for the effect of variability in surface albedo, water vapor, and ozone. We find increases in SDRECS (i.e., less radiation scattered to space by aerosols) over Western Europe (0.7–1 W m−2 dec−1) and the Eastern US (0.9–1.8 W m−2 dec−1), decreases over India (−0.5– −1.9 W m−2 dec−1) and no significant change over Eastern China. Comparisons with the GFDL chemistry climate model AM3, driven by CMIP6 historical emissions, show that changes in SDRECS over Western Europe and the Eastern US are well captured, which largely reflects the mature understanding of the sulfate budget in these regions. In contrast, the model overestimates the trends in SDRECS over India and Eastern China. Over China, this bias can be partly attributed to the decline of SO2 emissions after 2007, which is not captured by the CMIP6 emissions. In both India and Eastern China, we find much larger contributions of nitrate and black carbon to changes in SDRECS than in the US and Europe, which highlights the need to better constrain their precursors and chemistry. Globally, our model shows that changes in the all-sky aerosol direct forcing between 2001 and 2015 (+0.03 W m−2) are dominated by black carbon (+0.12 W m−2) with significant offsets from nitrate (−0.03 W m−2) and sulfate (−0.03 W m−2). Changes in the sulfate (+7 %) and nitrate (+60 %) all-sky direct forcing between 2001 and 2015 are only weakly related to changes in the emissions of their precursors (−12.5 % and 19 % for SO2 and NH3, respectively), due mostly to chemical non linearities.
Pu, Bing, and Paul Ginoux, March 2018: Climatic factors contributing to long-term variations of fine dust concentration in the United States. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18(6), DOI:10.5194/acp-18-4201-2018. Abstract
High concentration of dust particles can cause respiratory problems and increase non-accidental mortality. Studies found fine dust (with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microns) is an important component of the total PM2.5 mass in the western and central U.S. in spring and summer and has positive trends. This work examines factors influencing long-term variations of fine dust concentration in the U.S. using station data from the Interagency Monitoring Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network during 1990–2015. The variations of the fine dust concentration can be largely explained by the variations of precipitation, surface bareness, and 10 m wind speed. Moreover, including convective parameters such as convective inhibition (CIN) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) better explains the variations and trends over the Great Plains from spring to fall.
While the positive trend of fine dust concentration in the Southwest in spring is associated with precipitation deficit, the increasing of fine dust over the central Great Plains in summer is largely associated with an enhancing of CIN and a weakening of CAPE, which are related to increased atmospheric stability due to surface drying and lower troposphere warming. The positive trend of the Great Plains low-level jet also contributes to the increasing of fine dust concentration in the central Great Plains in summer via its connections with surface winds and CIN.
Summer dusty days in the central Great Plains are usually associated with a westward extension of the North Atlantic subtropical high that intensifies the Great Plains low-level jet and also results in a stable atmosphere with subsidence and reduced precipitation.
Dust aerosol plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative and energy balances. Biases in dust modeling may result in biases in simulating global energy budget and regional climate. It is thus very important to understand how well dust is simulated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Here seven CMIP5 models using interactive dust emission schemes are examined against satellite derived dust optical depth (DOD) during 2004–2016.
It is found that multi-model mean can largely capture the global spatial pattern and zonal mean of DOD over land in present-day climatology in MAM and JJA. Global mean land DOD is underestimated by −25.2 % in MAM to −6.4 % in DJF. While seasonal cycle, magnitude, and spatial pattern are generally captured by multi-model mean over major dust source regions such as North Africa and the Middle East, these variables are not so well represented by most of the models in South Africa and Australia. Interannual variations of DOD are neither captured by most of the models nor by multi-model mean. Models also do not capture the observed connections between DOD and local controlling factors such as surface wind speed, bareness, and precipitation. The constraints from surface bareness are largely underestimated while the influences of surface wind and precipitation are overestimated.
Projections of DOD change in the late half of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario by multi-model mean is compared with those projected by a regression model. Despite the uncertainties associated with both projections, results show some similarities between the two, e.g., DOD pattern over North Africa in DJF and JJA, an increase of DOD in the Arabian Peninsula in all seasons, and a decrease over northern China from MAM to SON.
Northern India (23° N–31° N, 68° E–90° E) is one of the most densely populated and polluted regions in world. Accurately modeling pollution in the region is difficult due to the extreme conditions with respect to emissions, meteorology, and topography, but it is paramount in order to understand how future changes in emissions and climate may alter the region's pollution regime. We evaluate the ability of a developmental version of the new-generation NOAA GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 (AM4) to simulate observed wintertime fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and its relationship to meteorology over Northern India. We compare two simulations of GFDL-AM4 nudged to observed meteorology for the period 1980–2016 driven by pollutant emissions from two global inventories developed in support of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6), and compare results with ground-based observations from India's Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) for the period 1 October 2015–31 March 2016. Overall, our results indicate that the simulation with CMIP6 emissions, produces improved concentrations of pollutants over the region relative to the CMIP5-driven simulation.
While the particulate concentrations simulated by AM4 are biased low overall, the model generally simulates the magnitude and daily variability of observed total PM2.5. Nitrate and organic matter are the primary components of PM2.5 over Northern India in the model. On the basis of correlations of the individual model components with total observed PM2.5 and correlations between the two simulations, meteorology is the primary driver of daily variability. The model correctly reproduces the shape and magnitude of the seasonal cycle of PM2.5, but the simulated diurnal cycle misses the early evening rise and secondary maximum found in the observations. Observed PM2.5 abundances are by far the highest within the densely populated Indo-Gangetic Plain, where they are closely related to boundary layer meteorology, specifically relative humidity, wind speed, boundary layer height, and inversion strength. The GFDL AM4 model reproduces the overall observed pollution gradient over Northern India as well as the strength of the meteorology-PM2.5 relationship in most locations.
Strong, Jeffrey D., Gabriel A Vecchi, and Paul Ginoux, May 2018: The Climatological Effect of Saharan Dust on Global Tropical Cyclones in a Fully Coupled GCM. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123(10), DOI:10.1029/2017JD027808. Abstract
Climate in the tropical North Atlantic and West Africa is known to be sensitive to both the atmospheric burden and optical properties of aerosolized mineral dust. We investigate the global climatic response to an idealized perturbation in atmospheric burden of Saharan‐born mineral dust, comparable to the observed changes between the 1960's and 1980's, using simulations with the high resolution, fully coupled GFDL Climate Model 2.5, Forecast‐oriented Low Ocean Resolution version, across a range of realistic optical properties, with a specific focus on tropical cyclones. The direct radiative response at the top of the atmosphere (ToA) and at the surface along with regional hydrologic and thermodynamic responses are in agreement with previous studies, depending largely on the amount of aerosol absorption versus scattering. In all simulations, dust causes a decrease in tropical cyclone activity across the North Atlantic Ocean, as determined by a tropical cyclone tracking scheme, with the largest response occurring in the most absorbing and scattering optical regimes. These changes are partially corroborated by common local genesis potential indices. However, no clear‐cut explanation can be developed upon inspection of their constituent variables. There are also non‐negligible anomalies in the North Pacific and Indian Oceans in these simulations. A relationship between accumulated cyclone energy and ToA radiative flux anomalies is used to explain the North Atlantic anomalies, while analogy to known climate variations can help us understand the far‐field response to the dust forcing.
In this two-part paper, a description is provided of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This version, with roughly 100km horizontal resolution and 33 levels in the vertical, contains an aerosol model that generates aerosol fields from emissions and a “light” chemistry mechanism designed to support the aerosol model but with prescribed ozone. In Part I, the quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode – with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice distribution – is described and compared with previous GFDL models and with the CMIP5 archive of AMIP simulations. The model's Cess sensitivity (response in the top-of-atmosphere radiative flux to uniform warming of SSTs) and effective radiative forcing are also presented. In Part II, the model formulation is described more fully and key sensitivities to aspects of the model formulation are discussed, along with the approach to model tuning.
In Part II of this two-part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part I. Part II provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken to tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.
Mineral dust particles interact with solar and terrestrial radiation. Statistical analyses of observational data and global simulations reveal that atmospheric dust is coarser than previously thought, and could cause warming of the atmosphere.
Ginoux, Paul, and A Deroubaix, August 2017: Space Observations of Dust in East Asia In Air Pollution in Eastern Asia: An Integrated Perspective, ISSI Scientific Report Series, vol 16, Springer, Cham, DOI:10.1007/978-3-319-59489-7_17365-383. Abstract
Using 13-year satellite based data, dust events in East Asia are analyzed in term of their frequency and surface properties. Three distinct regions are defined based on their geomorphology: the western basins surrounded by high elevation mountains, the central Mongolian and Loess Plateaus, and the northeastern low level plains. Dust activity peaks in spring but persists during the other seasons. The western basins are active all year long with a minimum in winter. The central plateaus have low dust activity in fall, while dust events in the northeastern plains are rare in winter and summer. We find that the sources in the northeast and along the southern margin of the Loess Plateau are associated with land use. Analysis of surface conditions indicates very strong interannual variations of snow cover which may affect the central and northeastern sources, while vegetation cover modulates seasonal variation of the northeastern sources. Strong surface winds peak in spring for all sources, but are more frequent over central and northeastern sources. Dust emission is initiated when surface wind speed is greater than a threshold of wind erosion which has been retrieved for the first time over the entire East Asia dust sources. The mean values for the western, central, and northeastern source regions are, respectively, 6.5, 9.1 and 8.6 m/s, in excellent agreement with previous studies. This work shows the power of using satellite retrievals to derive high resolution properties over large areas, although some products have large uncertainties. This drawback has been partially alleviated by comparing our results with previous studies based on in-situ data.
Kim, D, Mian Chin, E M Kemp, Z Tao, C D Peters-Lidard, and Paul Ginoux, June 2017: Development of high-resolution dynamic dust source function - A case study with a strong dust storm in a regional model. Atmospheric Environment, 159, DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.03.045. Abstract
A high-resolution dynamic dust source has been developed in the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to improve the existing coarse static dust source. In the new dust source map, topographic depression is in 1-km resolution and surface bareness is derived using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The new dust source better resolves the complex topographic distribution over the Western United States where its magnitude is higher than the existing, coarser resolution static source. A case study is conducted with an extreme dust storm that occurred in Phoenix, Arizona in 02–03 UTC July 6, 2011. The NU-WRF model with the new high-resolution dynamic dust source is able to successfully capture the dust storm, which was not achieved with the old source identification. However the case study also reveals several challenges in reproducing the time evolution of the short-lived, extreme dust storm events.
Ocko, I B., and Paul Ginoux, April 2017: Comparing multiple model-derived aerosol optical properties to collocated ground-based and satellite measurements. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17(7), DOI:10.5194/acp-17-4451-2017. Abstract
Anthropogenic aerosols are a key factor governing Earth’s climate, and play a central role in human-caused climate change. However, because of aerosols’ complex physical, optical, and dynamical properties, aerosols are one of the most uncertain aspects of climate modeling. Fortunately, aerosol measurement networks over the past few decades have led to the establishment of long-term observations for numerous locations worldwide. Further, the availability of datasets from several different measurement techniques (such as ground-based and satellite instruments) can help scientists increasingly improve modeling efforts. This study explores the value of evaluating several model-simulated aerosol properties with data from collocated instruments. We compare optical depth (total, scattering, and absorption), single scattering albedo, Ångström exponent, and extinction vertical profiles in two prominent global climate models to seasonal observations from collocated instruments (AERONET and CALIOP) at seven polluted and biomass burning regions worldwide. We find that models may accurately reproduce one variable while totally failing at another; data from collocated instruments can reveal underlying aerosol-governing physics; column properties may wash out important vertical distinctions; and "improved" models does not mean all aspects are improved. We conclude that it is important to make use of all available data (parameters and instruments) when evaluating aerosol properties derived by models.
Paulot, Fabien, David J Paynter, Paul Ginoux, Vaishali Naik, S Whitburn, M Van Damme, L Clarisse, P-F Coheur, and Larry W Horowitz, August 2017: Gas-aerosol partitioning of ammonia in biomass burning plumes: implications for the interpretation of spaceborne observations of ammonia and the radiative forcing of ammonium nitrate. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(15), DOI:10.1002/2017GL074215. Abstract
Satellite–derived enhancement ratios of NH3 relative to CO column burden ( math formula) in fires over Alaska, the Amazon, and South Equatorial Africa are 35, 45, and 70% lower than the corresponding ratio of their emissions factors ( math formula) from biomass burning derived from in-situ observations. Simulations performed using the GFDL AM3 global chemistry–climate model show that these regional differences may not entirely stem from an overestimate of NH3 emissions but rather from changes in the gas-aerosol partitioning of NH3 to NH math formula. Differences between math formula and math formula are largest in regions where EFNOx/NH3 is high, consistent with the production of NH4NO3. Biomass burning is estimated to contribute 13–24% of the global burden and direct radiative effect (DRE) of NH4NO3(-15 – -28 mWm−2), despite accounting for less than 6% of the global source of NH3. Production of NH4NO3 is largely concentrated over the Amazon and South Equatorial Africa, where its DRE can reach -1.9Wm−2 during the biomass burning season.
Climate models project rising drought risks over the southwestern and central U.S. in the twenty-first century due to increasing greenhouse gases. The projected drier regions largely overlay the major dust sources in the United States. However, whether dust activity in U.S. will increase in the future is not clear, due to the large uncertainty in dust modeling. This study found that changes of dust activity in the U.S. in the recent decade are largely associated with the variations of precipitation, soil bareness, and surface winds speed. Using multi-model output under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario, we project that climate change will increase dust activity in the southern Great Plains from spring to fall in the late half of the twenty-first century – largely due to reduced precipitation, enhanced land surface bareness, and increased surface wind speed. Over the northern Great Plains, less dusty days are expected in spring due to increased precipitation and reduced bareness. Given the large negative economic and societal consequences of severe dust storms, this study complements the multi-model projection on future dust variations and may help improve risk management and resource planning.
Baddock, M C., and Paul Ginoux, April 2016: Do MODIS-defined dust sources have a geomorphological signature?Geophysical Research Letters, 43(6), DOI:10.1002/2015GL067327. Abstract
The preferential dust source (PDS) scheme enables large-scale mapping of geomorphology in terms of importance for dust emissions but has not been independently tested other than at local scales. We examine the PDS qualitative conceptual model of surface emissivity alongside a quantitative measurement of dust loading from MODIS Deep Blue Collection 6 for the Chihuahuan Desert. The predicted ranked importance of each geomorphic type for dust emissions is compared with the actual ranked importance as determined from the satellite-derived dust loading. For this region, the predicted variability and magnitude of dust emissions from most surface types present coincides with the observed characteristics demonstrating the significance of geomorphological controls on emission. The exception is for areas of low magnitude but persistent emissions such as alluvial surfaces where PDS over-predicts dustiness. As PDS is a good predictor of emissions and incorporates surface dynamics it could improve models of future dust emissions.
Observations show that Australian dust activity varies by a factor of 4 on decadal timescales. General circulation models, however, typically fail to simulate this variability. Here we introduce a new dust parameterization into the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate model CM3 that represents land surface processes controlling dust sources including soil water and ice, snow cover, vegetation characteristics, and land type. In an additional novel step, we couple this new dust parameterization to the dynamic vegetation model LM3. In Australia, the new parameterization amplifies the magnitude and timescale of dust variability and better simulates the El Niño–Southern Oscillation-dust relationship by more than doubling its strength. We attribute these improvements primarily to the slow response time of vegetation to precipitation anomalies and show that vegetation changes account for approximately 50% of enhanced dust emission during El Niño events. The amplified dust leads to radiative forcing over Australia greater than −1 and −20 W/m2 at top of atmosphere and surface, respectively.
Ge, Cui, J Wang, S Carn, K Yang, and Paul Ginoux, et al., April 2016: Satellite-based global volcanic SO2 emissions and sulfate direct radiative forcing during 2005-2012. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 12(7), DOI:10.1002/2015JD023134. Abstract
An 8-year volcanic SO2 emission inventory for 2005-2012 is obtained based on satellite measurements of SO2 from OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) and ancillary information from the Global Volcanism Program. It includes contributions from global volcanic eruptions and from 8 persistently degassing volcanoes in the tropics. It shows significant differences in the estimate of SO2 amount and injection height for medium to large volcanic eruptions as compared to the counterparts in the existing volcanic SO2 database. Emissions from Nyamuragira (DR Congo) in November 2006 and Grímsvötn (Iceland) in May 2011 that were not included in the IPCC-5 inventory are included here. Using the updated emissions, the volcanic sulfate (SO42-) distribution is simulated with the global transport model GEOS-Chem. The simulated time series of sulfate Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) above 10 km captures every eruptive volcanic sulfate perturbation with a similar magnitude to that measured by CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation). The 8-year average contribution of eruptive SO42- to total SO42- loading above 10 km is ~10% over most areas of the northern hemisphere, with a maxima of 30% in the tropics where the anthropogenic emissions are relatively smaller. The persistently degassing volcanic SO42- in the tropics barely reaches above 10 km, but in the lower atmosphere it is regionally dominant (60% + in terms of mass) over Hawaii and other oceanic areas northeast of Australia. Although the 7-year average (2005-2011) of eruptive volcanic sulfate forcing of -0.10 W m-2 in this study is comparable to that in the 2013 IPCC report (-0.09 Wm-2), significant discrepancies exist for each year. Our simulations also imply that the radiative forcing per unit AOD for volcanic eruptions can vary from -40 to -80 W m-2; much higher than the -25 Wm-2 implied in the IPCC calculations. In terms of sulfate forcing efficiency with respect to SO2 emission, eruptive volcanic sulfate is five times larger than anthropogenic sulfate. The sulfate forcing efficiency from degassing volcanic sources is close to that of anthropogenic sources. This study highlights the importance of characterizing both volcanic emission amount and injection altitude as well as the key role of satellite observations in maintaining accurate volcanic emissions inventories.
We update and evaluate the treatment of nitrate aerosols in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric model (AM3). Accounting for the radiative effects of nitrate aerosols generally improves the simulated aerosol optical depth, although nitrate concentrations at the surface are biased high. This bias can be reduced by increasing the deposition of nitrate to account for the near-surface volatilization of ammonium nitrate or by neglecting the heterogeneous production of nitric acid to account for the inhibition of N2O5 reactive uptake at high nitrate concentrations. Globally, uncertainties in these processes can impact the simulated nitrate optical depth by up to 25 %, much more than the impact of uncertainties in the seasonality of ammonia emissions (6 %) or in the uptake of nitric acid on dust (13 %). Our best estimate for present-day fine nitrate optical depth at 550 nm is 0.006 (0.005–0.008). We only find a modest increase of nitrate optical depth (< 30 %) in response to the projected changes in the emissions of SO2 (−40 %) and ammonia (+38 %) from 2010 to 2050. Nitrate burden is projected to increase in the tropics and in the free troposphere, but to decrease at the surface in the midlatitudes because of lower nitric acid concentrations. Our results suggest that better constraints on the heterogeneous chemistry of nitric acid on dust, on tropical ammonia emissions, and on the transport of ammonia to the free troposphere are needed to improve projections of aerosol optical depth.
The increasing trend of aerosol optical depth in the Middle East and a recent severe dust storm in Syria have raised questions as whether dust storms will increase and promoted investigations on the dust activities driven by the natural climate variability underlying the ongoing human perturbations such as the Syrian civil war. This study examined the influences of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on dust activities in Syria using an innovative dust optical depth (DOD) dataset derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue aerosol products. A significantly negative correlation is found between the Syrian DOD and the PDO in spring from 2003–2015. High DOD in spring is associated with lower geopotential height over the Middle East, Europe, and North Africa, accompanied by near surface anomalous westerly winds over the Mediterranean basin and southerly winds over the eastern Arabian Peninsula. These large-scale patterns promote the formation of the cyclones over the Middle East to trigger dust storms and also facilitate the transport of dust from North Africa, Iraq, and Saudi Arabian to Syria, where the transported dust dominates the seasonal mean DOD in spring. A negative PDO not only creates circulation anomalies favorable to high DOD in Syria but also suppresses precipitation in dust source regions over the eastern and southern Arabian Peninsula and northeastern Africa. On the daily scale, in addition to the favorable large-scale condition associated with a negative PDO, enhanced atmospheric instability in Syria associated with increased precipitation in Turkey and northern Syria is also critical for the development of strong springtime dust storms in Syria.
Uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity impedes accurate climate projections. While the inter-model spread is known to arise primarily from differences in cloud feedback, the exact processes responsible for the spread remain unclear. To help identify some key sources of uncertainty, we use a developmental version of the next generation Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory global climate model (GCM) to construct a tightly controlled set of GCMs where only the formulation of convective precipitation is changed. The different models provide simulation of present-day climatology of comparable quality compared to the CMIP5 model ensemble. We demonstrate that model estimates of climate sensitivity can be strongly affected by the manner through which cumulus cloud condensate is converted into precipitation in a model’s convection parameterization, processes that are only crudely accounted for in GCMs. In particular, two commonly used methods for converting cumulus condensate into precipitation can lead to drastically different climate sensitivity, as estimated here with an atmosphere/land model by increasing sea surface temperatures uniformly and examining the response in the top-of-atmosphere energy balance. The effect can be quantified through a bulk convective detrainment efficiency, which measures the ability of cumulus convection to generate condensate per unit precipitation. The model differences, dominated by shortwave feedbacks, come from broad regimes ranging from large-scale ascent to subsidence regions. Given current uncertainties in representing convective precipitation microphysics and our current inability to find a clear observational constraint that favors one version of our model over the others, the implications of this ability to engineer climate sensitivity needs to be considered when estimating the uncertainty in climate projections.
CLUBB (Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals) is a higher-order closure (HOC) method with an assumed joint probability density function (PDF) for the subgrid variations in vertical velocity, temperature, and moisture. CLUBB has been implemented in the GFDL climate model AM3-CLUBB and successfully unifies the treatment of shallow convection, resolved clouds, and planetary boundary layer (PBL). In this study, we further explore the possibility for CLUBB to unify the deep convection in a new configuration referred as AM3-CLUBB+. AM3-CLUBB+ simulations with prescribed sea surface temperature are discussed. Cloud, radiation, and precipitation fields compare favorably with observations and reanalyses. AM3-CLUBB+ successfully captures the transition from stratocumulus to deep convection and the modulated response of liquid water path to aerosols. Simulations of tropical variability and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are also improved. Deficiencies include excessive tropical water vapor and insufficient ice clouds in the mid-latitudes.
This study examines the climate response in West Africa and the tropical Atlantic to an idealized aerosol radiative forcing from Saharan-born mineral dust, comparable to the observed changes between the 1960s and 1990s, using simulations with the fully coupled GFDL Climate Model 2.1 (CM2.1) for two optical property regimes: more absorbing (ABS) and more scattering (SCT) dust. For both regimes dust induces significant regional reductions in radiative flux at the surface (approximately –30 W m−2). At the top of the atmosphere (ToA) dust in the two simulations produces a radiative flux anomaly of opposite sign (+30 W m−2 in the ABS-case and –20 W m−2 in the SCT-case). These differences result in opposing regional hydrologic and thermodynamic effects of dust. The ABS-forced simulations show an increase in the West African monsoon due to dust whereas in the SCT-forced simulations dust causes a decrease in the monsoon. This is due to moist enthalpy changes throughout the atmospheric column over West Africa creating either horizontal divergence or convergence near the surface, respectively. In the tropical North Atlantic, dust acts to cool the ocean surface. However, in the subsurface the ABS-forced simulations show a decrease in upper ocean heat content while the SCT-forced simulations show an increase in upper ocean heat content. The peak differences primarily arise from the wind stress curl response to a shift in the Atlantic ITCZ and associated mixed layer depth anomalies. Changes to upper ocean currents are also found to be important in transporting energy across the equator.
A unified turbulence and cloud parameterization based on multi-variate probability density functions (PDFs) has been incorporated into the GFDL atmospheric general circulation model AM3. This PDF-based parameterization not only predicts sub-grid variations in vertical velocity, temperature, and total water, which bridge sub-grid scale processes (such as aerosol activation and cloud microphysics) and grid-scale dynamic and thermodynamic fields, but also unifies the treatment of planetary boundary layer (PBL), shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics. This parameterization is the “Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals” (CLUBB) parameterization. With the incorporation of CLUBB in AM3, coupled with a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme, AM3-CLUBB allows for a more physically-based and self-consistent treatment of aerosol activation, cloud micro- and macro-physics, PBL, and shallow convection.
The configuration and performance of AM3-CLUBB are described. Cloud and radiation fields, as well as most basic climate features, are modeled realistically. Relative to AM3, AM3-CLUBB improves the simulation of coastal stratocumulus, a longstanding deficiency in GFDL models, and their seasonal cycle, especially at higher horizontal resolution, but global skill scores deteriorate slightly. Through sensitivity experiments, we show that (1) the two-moment cloud microphysics helps relieve the deficiency of coastal stratocumulus; (2) using the CLUBB sub-grid cloud water variability in the cloud microphysics has a considerable positive impact on global cloudiness; and (3) the impact of adjusting CLUBB parameters is to improve the overall agreement between model and observations.
Kim, D, and Paul Ginoux, et al., January 2013: The effect of the dynamic surface bareness on dust source function, emission, and distribution. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(2), DOI:10.1029/2012JD017907. Abstract
In this study we report the development of a time dependency of global dust source and its impact on dust simulation in the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. We determine the surface bareness using the 8 km Normalized Difference Vegetation Index observed from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite (AVHRR-NDVI). The results are used to analyze the temporal variations of surface bareness in 22 global dust source regions. One half of these regions can be considered as permanent dust source regions where NDVI is always less than 0.15, while the other half shows substantial seasonality of NDVI. This NDVI-based surface bareness map is then used, along with the soil and topographic characteristics, to construct a dynamic dust source function for simulating dust emissions with the GOCART model. We divide the 22 dust source regions into three groups of (I) permanent desert, (II) seasonally changing bareness that regulates dust emissions, and (III) seasonally changing bareness that has little effects on dust emission. Compared with the GOCART results with the previously employed static dust source function, the simulation with the new dynamic source function shows significant improvements in category (II) regions. Even though the global improvement of the aerosol optical depth is rather small when compared with satellite and ground based remote sensing observations, we found clear and significant effect of the new dust source on seasonal variation of dust emission and dust optical depth near the source regions. Globally, we have found that the permanent bare land contributes to 88 % of total dust emission, whereas the grassland and cultivated crops land contribute to about 12 %. Our results suggest the potential of using NDVI over vegetated area to link the dust emission with land cover and land use change for air quality and climate change studies.
We describe and evaluate atmospheric chemistry in the newly developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (GFDL AM3) and apply it to investigate the net impact of preindustrial (PI) to present (PD) changes in short-lived pollutant emissions (ozone precursors, sulfur dioxide, and carbonaceous aerosols) and methane concentration on atmospheric composition and climate forcing. The inclusion of online troposphere-stratosphere interactions, gas-aerosol chemistry, and aerosol-cloud interactions (including direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects) in AM3 enables a more complete representation of interactions among short-lived species, and thus their net climate impact, than was considered in previous climate assessments. The base AM3 simulation, driven with observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) over the period 1981–2007, generally reproduces the observed mean magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycle of tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide. The global mean aerosol optical depth in our base simulation is within 5% of satellite measurements over the 1982–2006 time period. We conduct a pair of simulations in which only the short-lived pollutant emissions and methane concentrations are changed from PI (1860) to PD (2000) levels (i.e., SST, SIC, greenhouse gases, and ozone depleting substances are held at PD levels). From the PI to PD, we find that changes in short-lived pollutant emissions and methane have caused the tropospheric ozone burden to increase by 39% and the global burdens of sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon to increase by factors of 3, 2.4 and 1.4, respectively. Tropospheric hydroxyl concentration decreases by 7%, showing that increases in OH sinks (methane, carbon monoxide, non-methane volatile organic compounds, and sulfur dioxide) dominate over sources (ozone and nitrogen oxides) in the model. Combined changes in tropospheric ozone and aerosols cause a net negative top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing perturbation (−1.05 Wm-2) indicating that the negative forcing (direct plus indirect) from aerosol changes dominates over the positive forcing due to ozone increases, thus masking nearly half of the PI to PD positive forcing from long-lived greenhouse gases globally, consistent with other current generation chemistry-climate models.
Fan, Songmiao, J P Schwarz, Junfeng Liu, D W Fahey, Paul Ginoux, Larry W Horowitz, Hiram Levy II, Yi Ming, and J R Spackman, December 2012: Inferring ice formation processes from global-scale black carbon profiles observed in the remote atmosphere and model simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117, D23205, DOI:10.1029/2012JD018126. Abstract
Black carbon (BC) aerosol absorbs solar radiation and can act as cloud condensation nucleus and ice formation nucleus. The current generation of climate models have difficulty in accurately predicting global-scale BC concentrations. Previously, an ensemble of such models was compared to measurements, revealing model biases in the tropical troposphere and in the polar troposphere. Here, global aerosol distributions are simulated using different parameterizations of wet removal and model results are compared to BC profiles observed in the remote atmosphere to explore the possible sources of these biases. The model-data comparison suggests a slow removal of BC aerosol during transport to the Arctic in winter and spring, because ice crystal growth causes evaporation of liquid cloud via the Bergron process and, hence, release of BC aerosol back to ambient air. By contrast, more efficient model wet removal is needed in the cold upper troposphere over the tropical Pacific. Parcel model simulations with detailed droplet and ice nucleation and growth processes suggest that ice formation in this region may be suppressed due to a lack of ice nuclei (mainly insoluble dust particles) in the remote atmosphere, allowing liquid and mixed-phase clouds to persist under freezing temperatures, and forming liquid precipitation capable of removing aerosol incorporated in cloud water. Falling ice crystals can scavenge droplets in lower clouds, which also results in efficient removal of cloud condensation nuclei. The combination of models with global-scale BC measurements in this study has provided new, latitude-dependent information on ice formation processes in the atmosphere, and highlights the importance of a consistent treatment of aerosol and moist physics in climate models.
Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry–climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.
Ginoux, Paul, J M Prospero, T E Gill, C Hsu, and Ming Zhao, August 2012: Global scale attribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources and their emission rates based on MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products. Reviews of Geophysics, 50, RG3005, DOI:10.1029/2012RG000388. Abstract
Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1 deg) mapping of sources based on MODIS Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land-use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contribution to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic, 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75%, in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrub-lands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land-use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land-use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.
Ginoux, Paul, L Clarisse, C Clerbaux, P-F Coheur, O Dubovik, N C Hsu, and M Van Damme, August 2012: Mixing of dust and NH3 observed globally over anthropogenic dust sources. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12(16), DOI:10.5194/acp-12-7351-2012. Abstract
The global distribution of dust column burden derived from MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products is compared to NH3 column burden retrieved from IASI infrared spectra. We found similarities in their spatial distributions, in particular their hot spots are often collocated over croplands and to a lesser extent pastures. Globally, we found 22% of dust burden collocated with NH3. This confirms the importance of anthropogenic dust from agriculture. Regionally, the Indian subcontinent has the highest amount of dust mixed with NH3 (26%), mostly over cropland and during the pre-monsoon season. North Africa represents 50% of total dust burden but accounts for only 4% of mixed dust, which is found over croplands and pastures in Sahel and the coastal region of the Mediterranean. In order to evaluate the radiative effect of this mixing on dust optical properties, we derive the mass extinction efficiency for various mixtures of dust and NH3, using AERONET sunphotometers data. We found that for dusty days the coarse mode mass extinction efficiency decreases from 0.62 to 0.48 m2 g−1 as NH3 burden increases from 0 to 40 mg m−2. The fine mode extinction efficiency, ranging from 4 to 16 m2 g−1, does not appear to depend on NH3 concentration or relative humidity but rather on mineralogical composition and mixing with other aerosols. Our results imply that a significant amount of dust is already mixed with ammonium salt before its long range transport. This in turn will affect dust lifetime, and its interactions with radiation and cloud properties.
Koffi, B, Paul Ginoux, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., May 2012: Application of the CALIOP Layer Product to evaluate the vertical distribution of aerosols estimated by global models: Part 1. AeroCom phase I results. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117, D10201, DOI:10.1029/2011JD016858. Abstract
The CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) Layer product is used for a multi-model evaluation of the vertical distribution of aerosols. Annual and seasonal aerosol extinction profiles are analysed over 13 sub-continental regions representative of industrial, dust, and biomass burning pollution, from CALIOP 2007-2009 observations and from AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) 2000 simulations. An extinction mean height diagnostic (Zα) is defined to quantitatively assess the models' performance. It is calculated over the 0-6 km and 0-10 km altitude ranges by weighting the altitude of each 100 m altitude layer by its aerosol extinction coefficient. The mean extinction profiles derived from CALIOP layer products provide consistent regional and seasonal specificities and a low inter-annual variability. While the outputs from most models are significantly correlated with the observed Zα climatologies, some do better than others, and 2 of the 12 models perform particularly well in all seasons. Over industrial and maritime regions, most models show higher Zα than observed by CALIOP, whereas over the African and Chinese dust source regions, Zα is underestimated during Northern Hemisphere Spring and Summer. The positive model bias in Zα is mainly due to an overestimate of the extinction above 6 km. Potential CALIOP and model limitations, and methodological factors that might contribute to the differences are discussed.
The direct radiative forcing of the climate system includes effects due to scattering and absorbing aerosols. This study explores how important physical climate characteristics contribute to the magnitudes of the direct radiative forcings (DRF) from anthropogenic sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon. For this purpose, we employ the GFDL CM2.1 global climate model, which has reasonable aerosol concentrations and reconstruction of 20th Century climate change. Sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols constitute the most important anthropogenic aerosol perturbations to the climate system, and provide striking contrasts between primarily scattering (sulfate and organic carbon) and primarily absorbing (black carbon) species. The quantitative roles of cloud coverage, surface albedo, and relative humidity in governing the sign and magnitude of all-sky top-of-atmosphere forcings are examined. Clouds reduce the global-mean sulfate TOA DRF by almost 50%, reduce the global-mean organic carbon TOA DRF by more than 30%, and increase the global-mean black carbon TOA DRF by almost 80%. Sulfate forcing is increased by over 50% as a result of hygroscopic growth, while high-albedo surfaces are found to have only a minor (less than 10%) impact on all global-mean forcings. Although the radiative forcing magnitudes are subject to uncertainties in the state of mixing of the aerosol species, it is clear that fundamental physical climate characteristics play a large role in governing aerosol direct radiative forcing magnitudes.
The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. The goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol-cloud interactions, chemistry-climate interactions, and coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. The model is also designed to serve as the physical-system component of earth-system models and models for decadal prediction in the near-term future, for example, through improved simulations in tropical land precipitation relative to earlier-generation GFDL models. This paper describes the dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component (AM3) of this model.
Relative to GFDL AM2, AM3 includes new treatments of deep and shallow cumulus convection, cloud-droplet activation by aerosols, sub-grid variability of stratiform vertical velocities for droplet activation, and atmospheric chemistry driven by emissions with advective, convective, and turbulent transport. AM3 employs a cubed-sphere implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with eco-system dynamics and hydrology.
Most basic circulation features in AM3 are simulated as realistically, or more so, than in AM2. In particular, dry biases have been reduced over South America. In coupled mode, the simulation of Arctic sea ice concentration has improved. AM3 aerosol optical depths, scattering properties, and surface clear-sky downward shortwave radiation are more realistic than in AM2. The simulation of marine stratocumulus decks and the intensity distributions of precipitation remain problematic, as in AM2.
The last two decades of the 20th century warm in CM3 by .32°C relative to 1881-1920. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies analyses of observations show warming of .56°C and .52°C, respectively, over this period. CM3 includes anthropogenic cooling by aerosol cloud interactions, and its warming by late 20th century is somewhat less realistic than in CM2.1, which warmed .66°C but did not include aerosol cloud interactions. The improved simulation of the direct aerosol effect (apparent in surface clear-sky downward radiation) in CM3 evidently acts in concert with its simulation of cloud-aerosol interactions to limit greenhouse gas warming in a way that is consistent with observed global temperature changes.
Desert dust plays an important role in the climate system through its impact on Earth's radiative budget and its role in the biogeochemical cycle as a source of iron in high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll regions. A large degree of diversity exists between the many global models that simulate the dust cycle to estimate its impact on climate. We present the results of a broad intercomparison of a total of 15 global aerosol models within the AeroCom project. Each model is compared to observations focusing on variables responsible for the uncertainties in estimating the direct radiative effect and the dust impact on the biogeochemical cycle, i.e., aerosol optical depth (AOD) and dust deposition. Additional comparisons to Angström Exponent (AE), coarse mode AOD and dust surface concentration are included to extend the assessment of model performance. These datasets form a benchmark data set which is proposed for model inspection and future dust model developments. In general, models perform better in simulating climatology of vertically averaged integrated parameters (AOD and AE) in dusty sites than they do with total deposition and surface concentration. Almost all models overestimate deposition fluxes over Europe, the Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean and ice core data. Differences among the models arise when simulating deposition at remote sites with low fluxes over the Pacific and the Southern Atlantic Ocean. This study also highlights important differences in models ability to reproduce the deposition flux over Antarctica. The cause of this discrepancy could not be identified but different dust regimes at each site and issues with data quality should be considered. Models generally simulate better surface concentration at stations downwind of the main sources than at remote ones. Likewise, they simulate better surface concentration at stations affected by Saharan dust than at stations affected by Asian dust. Most models simulate the gradient in AOD and AE between the different dusty regions, however the seasonality and magnitude of both variables is better simulated at African stations than Middle East ones. The models also reproduce the dust transport across the Atlantic in terms of both AOD and AE; they simulate the offshore transport of West Africa throughout the year and limit the transport across the Atlantic to the summer months, yet overestimating the AOD and transporting too fine particles. However, most of the models do not reproduce the southward displacement of the dust cloud during the winter responsible of the transport of dust into South America. Based on the dependency of AOD on aerosol burden and size distribution we use model data bias with respect to AOD and AE and infer on the over/under estimation of the dust emissions. According to this we suggest the emissions in the Sahara be between 792 and 2271 Tg/yr and the one in the Middle East between 212 and 329 Tg/yr.
Miller, D J., Kang Sun, M A Zondlo, D Kanter, O Dubovik, E J Welton, D M Winkler, and Paul Ginoux, November 2011: Assessing boreal forest fire smoke aerosol impacts on U.S. air quality: A case study using multiple data sets. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 116, D22209, DOI:10.1029/2011JD016170. Abstract
We synthesize multiple ground-based and satellite measurements to track the physical and chemical evolution of biomass burning smoke plumes transported from western Canada to the northeastern U.S. This multiple data set case study is an advantageous methodology compared with using individual or small groups of data sets, each with their own limitations. The case study analyzed is a Canadian boreal forest fire event on July 4, 2006 with carbonaceous aerosol smoke emission magnitudes comparable to those during the summer fire seasons of the previous decade. We track long-range transport of these aerosol plumes with data from space-borne remote sensing satellite instruments (MODIS, OMI, MISR, CALIOP lidar, AIRS) and ground-based in situ and remote aerosol observations (AERONET CIMEL sky/Sun photometer, MPLNET lidar, IMPROVE, EPA AirNow). Convective lofting elevated smoke emissions above the boundary layer into the free troposphere, where high speed winds aloft led to rapid, long-range transport. Aerosol layer subsidence occurred during transport due to a region of surface high pressure. Smoke aerosols reaching the boundary layer led to surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) enhancements accompanied by changes in aerosol composition as the plume mixed with anthropogenic aerosols over the northeastern U.S. The extensive coverage of this smoke plume over the northeastern U.S. affected regional air quality, with increases of 10–20 μg m−3 PM2.5 attributable to biomass burning smoke aerosols and EPA 24-hour PM2.5 standard exceedances along the U.S. East Coast. Although each data set individually provides a limited view of the transport of smoke emissions, we demonstrate that a multi–data set approach results in a more comprehensive view of potential impacts due to long-range transport of smoke from a less extreme fire event. Our case study demonstrates that fires emit smoke aerosols that under certain meteorological conditions can degrade regional air quality 3000 km from the source region, with additional implications for aerosol radiative forcing and regional haze over the northeastern U.S.
Draxler, D, Paul Ginoux, and A F Stein, August 2010: An empirically derived emission algorithm for wind-blown dust. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 115, D16212, DOI:10.1029/2009JD013167. Abstract
A wind blown dust emission algorithm was developed by matching the frequency of high AOD events derived from the MODIS Deep Blue algorithm with the frequency of friction velocities derived from NCEP’s NAM forecast model. The threshold friction velocity is the friction velocity that has the same frequency of occurrence as the 0.75 AOD. The AOD values are converted to an emission flux and their corresponding friction velocities are used to compute the linear regression slope of the flux to the friction velocity. The slope represents a quantity similar to a “dust density” of the soil and in combination with the friction velocity is used as a predictor for wind blown dust emissions. Model calculations for a test period of June and July 2007 showed the model prediction to capture the major measured plume events in timing and magnitude, although peak events tended to be over-predicted and many of the near-background level ambient concentrations were under-predicted. Although they only comprised of 9% of the total number of emission locations, an emission sensitivity test attributed most of the airborne dust loading to locations with relatively low threshold
friction velocities (< 45 cm s-1). There was some evidence that the duration of wind blown dust plume events was comparable to the 3-day sampling frequency of the IMPROVE monitoring network. Higher temporal frequency AIRNow observations at Phoenix showed a surprisingly good fit with the magnitude of the model predicted peak concentrations.
Ginoux, Paul, D Garbuzov, and N C Hsu, March 2010: Identification of anthropogenic and natural dust sources using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue level 2 data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 115, D05204, DOI:10.1029/2009JD012398. Abstract
Mineral dust interacts with radiation and impacts both the regional and global climate. The relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic dust sources, however, remains largely uncertain. Although human activities disturb soils and therefore enhance wind erosion, their contribution to global dust emission has never been directly evaluated because of a lack of data. The retrieval of aerosol properties over land, including deserts, using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Deep Blue algorithm makes the first direct characterization of the origin of individual sources possible. In order to separate freshly emitted dust from other aerosol types and aged dust particles, the spectral dependence of the single scattering albedo and the Angstrom wavelength exponent are used. Four years of data from the eastern part of West Africa, which includes one of the most active natural dust sources and the highest population density on the continent, are processed. Sources are identified on the basis of the persistence of significant aerosol optical depth from freshly emitted dust, and the origin is characterized as natural or anthropogenic on the basis of a land use data set. Our results indicate that although anthropogenic dust is observed less frequently and with lower optical depth than dust from natural sources in this particular region, it occupies a large area covering most of northern Nigeria and southern Chad, around Lake Chad. In addition, smaller anthropogenic sources are found as far south as 5° of latitude north, well outside the domain of most dust source inventories.
The transport of South American dust to East Antarctica is investigated by using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Atmospheric Model in combination with satellite products. The mechanisms of dust transport to Antarctica are studied by analyzing the transport pathways and their relationship to main meteorological factors. The study shows that the transport to Antarctica is an intermittent process, occurring mainly through two pathways. A south-eastern corridor across southern Atlantic Ocean is the principal transport pathway. The dust transport is determined by the positions of the anomalous dipole of low and high sea level pressure systems over the southern Atlantic Ocean and the Antarctic Peninsula. South American dust goes through the south-eastern pathway when the dipole is located east of the Antarctic Peninsula, while a southward transport occurs when the two pressure anomaly systems are located on different side of the peninsula. Demonstrating these by following the journeys of specific dust plumes from the South American sources to East Antarctica, this study clarifies how climatic factors affect the amount of dust deposited in Antarctic ice cores.
Understanding the plausible causes for the observed high dust concentrations in Antarctic ice cores during
the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is crucial for interpreting the Antarctic dust records in the past climates
and could provide insights into dust variability in future climates. Using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory (GFDL) General Circulation Models, we conduct an investigation into the various factors
modulating dust emission, transport and deposition, with a view towards an improved quantification of the
LGM dust enhancements in the Antarctic ice cores. The model simulations show that the expansion of
source areas and changes in the Antarctic ice accumulation rates together can account for most of the
observed increase of dust concentrations in the Vostok, Dome C and Taylor Dome cores, but there is an
overestimate of the LGM-to-present ratio in the case of the Byrd core. The source expansion due to the
lowering of sea level yields a factor of 2–3 higher contribution than that due to the reduction of continental
vegetation. The changes in other climate parameters (e.g., SH precipitation change) are estimated to be
relatively less important within the context of this sensitivity study, while the model-simulated LGM
surface winds yield a 20–30 % reduction rather than an increase in dust deposition in Antarctica. This
research yields insights towards a fundamental understanding of the causes for the significant enhancement
of the dust deposition in the Antarctic ice cores during the LGM.
A new stratiform cloud scheme including a two-moment bulk microphysics module, a cloud cover parameterization allowing ice supersaturation, and an ice nucleation parameterization has been implemented into the recently developed GFDL AM3 general circulation model (GCM) as part of an effort to treat aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions more realistically. Unlike the original scheme, the new scheme facilitates the study of cloud-ice-aerosol interactions via influences of dust and sulfate on ice nucleation. While liquid and cloud ice water path associated with stratiform clouds are similar for the new and the original scheme, column integrated droplet numbers and global frequency distributions (PDFs) of droplet effective radii differ significantly. This difference is in part due to a difference in the implementation of the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) mechanism, which leads to a larger contribution from super-cooled droplets in the original scheme. Clouds are more likely to be either completely glaciated or liquid due to the WBF mechanism in the new scheme. Super-saturations over ice simulated with the new scheme are in qualitative agreement with observations, and PDFs of ice numbers and effective radii appear reasonable in the light of observations. Especially, the temperature dependence of ice numbers qualitatively agrees with in-situ observations. The global average long-wave cloud forcing decreases in comparison to the original scheme as expected when super-saturation over ice is allowed. Anthropogenic aerosols lead to a larger decrease in short-wave absorption (SWABS) in the new model setup, but outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) decreases as well, so that the net effect of including anthropogenic aerosols on the net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (netradTOA = SWABS-OLR) is of similar magnitude for the new and the original scheme.
Ganguly, D, Paul Ginoux, and V Ramaswamy, et al., July 2009: Retrieving the composition and concentration of aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic basin using CALIOP and AERONET data. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L13806, DOI:10.1029/2009GL038315. Abstract
Most GCMs (General Circulation Models) fail to reproduce the AOD (aerosol optical depth) peak over the Indo-Gangetic basin (IGB) as noticed through satellite observations. Insufficient data on aerosol composition makes it difficult to improve GCM results over this source region. In this work, we retrieve the composition and concentration of aerosols over the IGB region, to a first order approximation, by combining the spectral measurements of AOD, single scattering albedo and size distribution available from AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) and the extinction profile of aerosols from CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization). Comparison of our results with AM2 (Atmospheric GCM) simulations reveal that AM2 is largely underestimating organics and black carbon concentrations over this region during all months. Sulfate is also underestimated during most months but, there is an overestimation from May to September. There is a compelling need for improving the aerosol inventories and dust sources over the region in order to make realistic assessment of the impacts of aerosols on the south Asian monsoon.
Ganguly, D, Paul Ginoux, and V Ramaswamy, et al., August 2009: Inferring the composition and concentration of aerosols by combining AERONET and MPLNET data: Comparison with other measurements and utilization to evaluate GCM output. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D16203, DOI:10.1029/2009JD011895. Abstract
In this work we demonstrate a method to derive the concentration of aerosol components from the spectral measurements of AOD (aerosol optical depth) and single scattering albedo along with their size distribution and extinction profile available from AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) and MPLNET (Micro-pulse Lidar Network) stations. The technique involves finding the best combination of aerosol concentration by minimizing differences between measured and calculated values of aerosol parameters such as AOD, single scattering albedo, and size distribution. We applied this technique over selected sites in three different regions of the United States (West coast, Great Plains, and North-East). Our results are then compared with the measured concentration of aerosol components available from IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) and EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) network, as well as two different versions of the GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) General Circulation Model AM2 with online and offline aerosols. In general, concentrations retrieved by our technique compare well with the ground-based measurements, but there are some discrepancies possibly due to the inherent differences in temporal and spatial scales of data averaging or some of the assumptions made in our study. Over continental North America, the online version of AM2 appears to overestimate sulfate concentration approximately by a factor of two and underestimate organic carbon by nearly the same amount. Results of our sensitivity study show that the errors in the retrieval of black carbon and sulfate concentrations could be as high as 100% when there is a large bias of ∼0.05 in the reference values of single scattering albedo under high AOD (≥0.5 at 0.44 μm) conditions. Knowledge on the vertical distribution of aerosols is crucial for an accurate retrieval of surface concentration of aerosols. We also determine the composition and concentration of elevated aerosol layers using this technique.
We evaluate black carbon (BC) model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) retrievals from AERONET and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column) AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.7 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 8 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC ratio is 0.4 and models underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model generated a smaller change in model predictions than the range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models.
Our objectives are to evaluate inter-continental source-receptor relationships for fine aerosols and to identify the regions whose emissions have dominant influence on receptor continents. We simulate sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and mineral dust aerosols using a global coupled chemistry-aerosol model (MOZART-2) driven with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis meteorology for 1997–2003 and emissions approximately representing year 2000. The concentrations of simulated aerosol species in general agree within a factor of 2 with observations, except that the model tends to overestimate sulfate over Europe in summer, underestimate BC and OC over the western and southeastern (SE) U.S. and Europe, and underestimate dust over the SE U.S. By tagging emissions from ten continental regions, we quantify the contribution of each region's emissions on surface aerosol concentrations (relevant for air quality) and aerosol optical depth (AOD, relevant for visibility and climate) globally. We find that domestic emissions contribute substantially to surface aerosol concentrations (57–95%) over all regions, but are responsible for a smaller fraction of AOD (26–76%). We define “background” aerosols as those aerosols over a region that result from inter-continental transport, DMS oxidation, and emissions from ships or volcanoes. Transport from other continental source regions accounts for a substantial portion of background aerosol concentrations: 36–97% for surface concentrations and 38–89% for AOD. We identify the Region of Primary Influence (RPI) as the source region with the largest contribution to the receptor's background aerosol concentrations (or AOD). We find that for dust Africa is the RPI for both aerosol concentrations and AOD over all other receptor regions. For non-dust aerosols (particularly for sulfate and BC), the RPIs for aerosol concentrations and AOD are identical for most receptor regions. These findings indicate that the reduction of the emission of non-dust aerosols and their precursors from an RPI will simultaneously improve both air quality and visibility over a receptor region.
Magi, B I., Paul Ginoux, Yi Ming, and V Ramaswamy, July 2009: Evaluation of tropical and extratropical Southern Hemisphere African aerosol properties simulated by a climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research, D14204, DOI:10.1029/2008JD011128. Abstract
We compare aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) simulated by updated configurations of a version of the atmospheric model (AM2) component of the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model over Southern Hemisphere Africa with AOD and SSA derived from research aircraft measurements and NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations and with regional AOD from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite. The results of the comparisons suggest that AM2 AOD is biased low by 30–40% in the tropics and 0–20% in the extratropics, while AM2 SSA is biased high by 4–8%. The AM2 SSA bias is higher during the biomass burning season, and the monthly variations in AM2 SSA are poorly correlated with AERONET. On the basis of a comparison of aerosol mass in the models with measurements from southern Africa, and a detailed analysis of aerosol treatment in AM2, we suggest that the low bias in AOD and high bias in SSA are related to an underestimate of carbonaceous aerosol emissions in the biomass burning inventories used by AM2. Increases in organic matter and black carbon emissions by factors of 1.6 and 3.8 over southern Africa improve the biases in AOD and especially SSA. We estimate that the AM2 biases in AOD and SSA imply that the magnitude of annual top of the atmosphere radiative forcing in clear-sky conditions over southern Africa is overestimated (too negative) by ∼8% while surface radiative forcing is underestimated (not negative enough) by ∼20%.
Air quality transcends all scales with in the atmosphere from the local to the global with handovers and feedbacks at each scale interaction. Air quality has manifold effects on health, ecosystems, heritage and climate. In this review the state of scientific understanding in relation to global and regional air quality is outlined. The review discusses air quality, in terms of emissions, processing and transport of trace gases and aerosols. New insights into the characterization of both natural and anthropogenic emissions are reviewed looking at both natural (e.g. dust and lightning) as well as plant emissions. Trends in anthropogenic emissions both by region and globally are discussed as well as biomass burning emissions. In terms of chemical processing the major air quality elements of ozone, non-methane hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and aerosols are covered. A number of topics are presented as a way of integrating the process view into the atmospheric context; these include the atmospheric oxidation efficiency, halogen and HOx chemistry, nighttime chemistry, tropical chemistry, heat waves, megacities, biomass burning and the regional hot spot of the Mediterranean. New findings with respect to the transport of pollutants across the scales are discussed, in particular the move to quantify the impact of long-range transport on regional air quality. Gaps and research questions that remain intractable are identified. The review concludes with a focus of research and policy questions for the coming decade. In particular, the policy challenges for concerted air quality and climate change policy (co-benefit) are discussed.
Quaas, J, Yi Ming, Leo J Donner, and Paul Ginoux, et al., November 2009: Aerosol indirect effects – general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9(22), DOI:10.5194/acp-9-8697-2009. Abstract
Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterises aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth (τa) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between τa and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. This suggests that the implementation of the second aerosol indirect effect mainly in terms of an autoconversion parameterisation has to be revisited in the GCMs. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (fcld) and τa as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong fcld–τa relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as a unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between τa and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR–τa relationship show a strong positive correlation between τa and fcld. The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is strongly influenced by the simulated anthropogenic fraction of τa, and parameterisation assumptions such as a lower bound on Nd. Nevertheless, the strengths of the statistical relationships are good predictors for the aerosol forcings in the models. An estimate of the total short-wave aerosol forcing inferred from the combination of these predictors for the modelled forcings with the satellite-derived statistical relationships yields a global annual mean value of −1.5±0.5 Wm−2. In an alternative approach, the radiative flux perturbation due to anthropogenic aerosols can be broken down into a component over the cloud-free portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol direct effect) and a component over the cloudy portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol indirect effect). An estimate obtained by scaling these simulated clear- and cloudy-sky forcings with estimates of anthropogenic τa and satellite-retrieved Nd–τa regression slopes, respectively, yields a global, annual-mean aerosol direct effect estimate of −0.4±0.2 Wm−2 and a cloudy-sky (aerosol indirect effect) estimate of −0.7±0.5 Wm−2, with a total estimate of −1.2±0.4 Wm−2.
Dubovik, O, Y Lapyonok, Y J Kaufman, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, R A Kahn, and A Sinyuk, 2008: Retrieving global aerosol sources from satellites using inverse modeling. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 8(2), DOI:10.5194/acp-8-209-2008. Abstract
Understanding aerosol effects on global climate requires knowing the global distribution of tropospheric aerosols. By accounting for aerosol sources, transports, and removal processes, chemical transport models simulate the global aerosol distribution using archived meteorological fields. We develop an algorithm for retrieving global aerosol sources from satellite observations of aerosol distribution by inverting the GOCART aerosol transport model.
The inversion is based on a generalized, multi-term least-squares-type fitting, allowing flexible selection and refinement of a priori algorithm constraints. For example, limitations can be placed on retrieved quantity partial derivatives, to constrain global aerosol emission space and time variability in the results. Similarities and differences between commonly used inverse modeling and remote sensing techniques are analyzed. To retain the high space and time resolution of long-period, global observational records, the algorithm is expressed using adjoint operators.
Successful global aerosol emission retrievals at 2°×2.5 resolution were obtained by inverting GOCART aerosol transport model output, assuming constant emissions over the diurnal cycle, and neglecting aerosol compositional differences. In addition, fine and coarse mode aerosol emission sources were inverted separately from MODIS fine and coarse mode aerosol optical thickness data, respectively. These assumptions are justified, based on observational coverage and accuracy limitations, producing valuable aerosol source locations and emission strengths. From two weeks of daily MODIS observations during August 2000, the global placement of fine mode aerosol sources agreed with available independent knowledge, even though the inverse method did not use any a priori information about aerosol sources, and was initialized with a "zero aerosol emission" assumption. Retrieving coarse mode aerosol emissions was less successful, mainly because MODIS aerosol data over highly reflecting desert dust sources is lacking.
Li, F, Paul Ginoux, and V Ramaswamy, May 2008: Distribution, transport, and deposition of mineral dust in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica: Contribution of major sources. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 113, D10207, DOI:10.1029/2007JD009190. Abstract
A model-based investigation of the transport, distribution and deposition of mineral dust in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is performed by using the GFDL Atmospheric Model (AM2). The study represents an attempt to quantify the contribution of the major sources by tagging dust based on its origin. We evaluate the contribution of each source to the emission, distribution, mass burden and deposition of dust in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, and show that each source produces distinctive meridional transport, vertical distribution, and deposition patterns. The dust in SH originates primarily from Australia (120 Tg a−1), Patagonia (38 Tg a−1) and the inter-hemispheric transport from Northern Hemisphere (31 Tg a−1). A small fraction of it (7 Tg a−1) is transported and deposited in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, where dust from South America, Australia, and Northern Hemisphere are essentially located in the boundary layer, mid-troposphere, and upper-troposphere, respectively. These three sources contribute to nearly all the dust burden in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. South America and Australia are the main sources of the dust deposition, but they differ zonally, with each one dominating half of a hemisphere along 120°E–60°W: the half comprising the Atlantic and Indian oceans in the case of the South American dust and the Pacific half in the case of the Australian dust. Our study also indicates a potentially important role of Northern Hemisphere dust, as it appears to be a significant part of the dust burden but contributing little to the dust deposition in Antarctica.
Chin, Mian, T Diehl, Paul Ginoux, and W Malm, 2007: Intercontinental transport of pollution and dust aerosols: implications for regional air quality. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 7(21), 5501-5517. Abstract PDF
We use the global model GOCART to examine the impact of pollution and dust aerosols emitted from their major sources on surface fine particulate matter concentrations at regional and hemispheric scales. Focusing on the North America region in 2001, we use measurements from the IMPROVE network in the United States to evaluate the model-simulated surface concentrations of the "reconstructed fine mass" (RCFM) and its components of ammonium sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic matter (OM), and fine mode dust. We then quantify the RCFM budget in terms of the RCFM chemical composition, source type, and region of origin to find that in the eastern U.S., ammonium sulfate is the dominant RCFM component (~60%) whereas in the western U.S., dust and OM are just as important as sulfate but have considerable seasonal variations, especially in the NW. On an annual average, pollution aerosol (defined as aerosols from fuel combustion for industrial and transportation uses) from North America accounts for 65–70% of the surface RCFM in the eastern U.S. and for a lower proportion of 30–40% in the western U.S.; by contrast, pollution from outside of North America contributes to just 2–6% (~0.2 μg m−3) of the total RCFM over the U.S. In comparison, long-range transport of dust brings 3 to 4 times more fine particles than the transport of pollution to the U.S. (0.5–0.8 μg m−3 on an annual average) with a maximum influence in spring and over the NW. Of the major pollution regions, Europe has the largest potential to affect the surface aerosol concentrations in other continents due to its shorter distance from receptor continents and its larger fraction of sulfate-producing precursor gas in the outflow. With the IPCC emission scenario for the year 2000, we find that European emissions increase levels of ammonium sulfate by 1–5 μg m−3 over the surface of northern Africa and western Asia, and its contribution to eastern Asia (≥0.2 μg m−3) is twice as much as the Asian contribution to North America. Asia and North America pollution emissions exert strong impacts on their neighboring oceans, but their influences over other continents are relatively small (≤10%) due to long traveling distances across the oceans and efficient removal during transport. Among the major dust source regions, Asia displays a significant influence over large areas in the northern hemisphere except over the North Atlantic and the tropics, where African dust dominates. We also notice that the African dust and European pollution can travel eastward through a pathway spanning across Asia and North Pacific to western North America; such a pathway is difficult to detect because these aerosols usually merge and travel together with Asian dust and pollution labeled as "Asian outflow".
Ming, Yi, V Ramaswamy, Leo J Donner, Vaughan T J Phillips, Stephen A Klein, Paul Ginoux, and Larry W Horowitz, February 2007: Modeling the interactions between aerosols and liquid water clouds with a self-consistent cloud scheme in a general circulation model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64(4), DOI:10.1175/JAS3874.1. Abstract
To model aerosol-cloud interactions in general circulation
models (GCMs), a prognostic cloud scheme of cloud liquid water and amount is expanded to include droplet number concentration (Nd) in a way that allows them to be calculated using the same large-scale and convective updraft velocity field. In the scheme, the evolution of droplets fully interacts with the model meteorology. An explicit treatment of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation enables the scheme to take into account the contributions to Nd of multiple aerosol species (i.e., sulfate, organic, and sea-salt aerosols) and to consider kinetic limitations of the activation process. An implementation of the prognostic scheme in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM2 GCM yields a vertical distribution of Nd with a characteristic maximum in the lower troposphere; this feature differs from the profile that would be obtained if Ndis diagnosed from the sulfate mass concentration based on an often-used empirical relationship. Prognosticated Nd exhibits large variations with respect to the sulfate mass concentration. The mean values are generally consistent with the empirical relationship over ocean, but show negative biases over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land, perhaps owing to the neglect of subgrid variations of large-scale ascents and inadequate convective sources. The prognostic scheme leads to a substantial improvement in the agreement of model-predicted present-day liquid water path (LWP) and cloud forcing with satellite measurements compared to using the empirical relationship.
The simulations with preindustrial and present-day aerosols show that the
combined first and second indirect effects of anthropogenic sulfate and organic aerosols give rise to a steady-state global annual mean flux change of -1.8 W m-2, consisting of -2.0 W m-2 in shortwave and 0.2 W m-2 in longwave. The ratios of the flux changes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) to that in Southern Hemisphere (SH) and of the flux changes over ocean to that over land are 2.9 and 0.73, respectively. These estimates are consistent with the averages of values from previous studies stated in a recent review. The model response to higher Nd alters the cloud field; LWP and total cloud amount increase by 19% and 0.6%, respectively. Largely owing to high sulfate concentrations from fossil fuel burning, the NH midlatitude land and oceans experience strong radiative cooling. So does the tropical land, which is dominated by biomass burning-derived organic aerosol. The computed annual, zonal-mean flux changes are determined to be statistically significant, exceeding the model's natural variations in the NH low and midlatitudes and in the SH low latitudes. This study reaffirms the major role of sulfate in providing CCN for cloud formation.
Rotstayn, L D., W Cai, Martin R Dix, G D Farquhar, Y Feng, Paul Ginoux, Michael Herzog, Akihiko Ito, Joyce Penner, M L Roderick, and Minghuai Wang, 2007: Have Australian rainfall and cloudiness increased due to the remote effects of Asian anthropogenic aerosols?Journal of Geophysical Research, 112(D09202), DOI:10.1029/2006JD007712. Abstract
There is ample evidence that anthropogenic aerosols have important effects on climate in the Northern Hemisphere but little such evidence in the Southern Hemisphere. Observations of Australian rainfall and cloudiness since 1950 show increases over much of the continent. We show that including anthropogenic aerosol changes in 20th century simulations of a global climate model gives increasing rainfall and cloudiness over Australia during 1951–1996, whereas omitting this forcing gives decreasing rainfall and cloudiness. The pattern of increasing rainfall when aerosols are included is strongest over northwestern Australia, in agreement with the observed trends. The strong impact of aerosols is primarily due to the massive Asian aerosol haze, as confirmed by a sensitivity test in which only Asian anthropogenic aerosols are included. The Asian haze alters the meridional temperature and pressure gradients over the tropical Indian Ocean, thereby increasing the tendency of monsoonal winds to flow toward Australia. Anthropogenic aerosols also make the simulated pattern of surface-temperature change in the tropical Pacific more like La Niña, since they induce a cooling of the surface waters in the extratropical North Pacific, which are then transported to the tropical eastern Pacific via the deep ocean. Transient climate model simulations forced only by increased greenhouse gases have generally not reproduced the observed rainfall increase over northwestern and central Australia. Our results suggest that a possible reason for this failure was the omission of forcing by Asian aerosols. Further research is essential to more accurately quantify the role of Asian aerosols in forcing Australian climate change.
Textor, C, M Schulz, S Guibert, S Kinne, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E Bauer, Terje Berntsen, T F Berglen, Olivier Boucher, Mian Chin, Frank Dentener, T Diehl, J Feichter, D W Fillmore, and Paul Ginoux, et al., 2007: The effect of harmonized emissions on aerosol properties in global models – an AeroCom experiment. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 7, 4489-4501. Abstract PDF
The effects of unified aerosol sources on global aerosol fields simulated by different models are examined in this paper. We compare results from two AeroCom experiments, one with different (ExpA) and one with unified emissions, injection heights, and particle sizes at the source (ExpB). Surprisingly, harmonization of aerosol sources has only a small impact on the simulated inter-model diversity of the global aerosol burden, and consequently global optical properties, as the results are largely controlled by model-specific transport, removal, chemistry (leading to the formation of secondary aerosols) and parameterizations of aerosol microphysics (e.g., the split between deposition pathways) and to a lesser extent by the spatial and temporal distributions of the (precursor) emissions.
The burdens of black carbon and especially sea salt become more coherent in ExpB only, because the large ExpA diversities for these two species were caused by a few outliers. The experiment also showed that despite prescribing emission fluxes and size distributions, ambiguities in the implementation in individual models can lead to substantial differences.
These results indicate the need for a better understanding of aerosol life cycles at process level (including spatial dispersal and interaction with meteorological parameters) in order to obtain more reliable results from global aerosol simulations. This is particularly important as such model results are used to assess the consequences of specific air pollution abatement strategies.
Weaver, C, A Da Silva, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, O Dubovik, D Flittner, A Zia, L Remer, B Holben, and W Gregg, 2007: Direct insertion of MODIS radiances in a Global Aerosol Transport Model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64(3), DOI:10.1175/JAS3838.1. Abstract
In this paper results are presented from a simple offline assimilation system that uses radiances from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) channels that sense atmospheric aerosols over land and ocean. The MODIS information is directly inserted into the Goddard Chemistry and Aerosol Radiation Transport model (GOCART), which simulates the following five aerosol types: dust, sea salt, black carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate. The goal is to produce three-dimensional fields of these aerosol types for radiative forcing calculations.
Products from this assimilation system are compared with ground-based measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Insertion of MODIS radiances draws the GOCART model closer to the AERONET AOD. However, there are still uncertainties with surface reflectivity over moderately bright surfaces and with the amount of absorbing aerosol.
Also described is the assimilation cycle. The forward model takes the aerosol information from the GOCART model and calculates radiances based on optical parameters of the aerosol type, satellite viewing angle, and the particle growth from relative humidity. Because the GOCART model is driven by previously assimilated meteorology, these forward model radiances can be directly compared with the observed MODIS level-2 radiances. The offline assimilation system simply adjusts the aerosol loading in the GOCART model so that the observed minus forward model radiances agree. Minimal change is made to the GOCART aerosol vertical distribution, size distribution, and the ratio of the five different aerosol types. The loading in the GOCART model is updated with new MODIS observations every 6 h. Since the previously assimilated meteorology provides surface wind speed, radiance sensitivity to wind speed over rough ocean is taken into account. Over land the dark target approach, also used by the MODIS–atmosphere group retrieval, is used. If the underlying land surface is deemed dark enough, the surface reflectances at the 0.47- and 0.66-µm wavelengths are constant multiples of the observed 2.13-µm reflectance. Over ocean the assimilation AOD compares well with AERONET, over land less so. The results herein are also compared with AERONET-retrieved single-scattering albedo. This research is part of an ongoing effort at NASA Goddard to integrate aerosols into the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) products.
Cakmur, R V., Ron L. Miller, J Perlwitz, I V Geogdzhayev, Paul Ginoux, D Koch, K E Kohfeld, I Tegen, and C S Zender, March 2006: Constraining the magnitude of the global dust cycle by minimizing the difference between a model and observations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D06207, DOI:10.1029/2005JD005791. Abstract
Current estimates of global dust emission vary by over a factor of two. Here, we use multiple data types and a worldwide array of stations combined with a dust model to constrain the magnitude of the global dust cycle for particles with radii between 0.1 and 8 ìm. An optimal value of global emission is calculated by minimizing the difference between the model dust distribution and observations. The optimal global emission is most sensitive to the prescription of the dust source region. Depending upon the assumed source, the agreement with observations is greatest for global, annual emission ranging from 1500 to 2600 Tg. However, global annual emission between 1000 and 3000 Tg remains in agreement with the observations, given small changes in the method of optimization. Both ranges include values that are substantially larger than calculated by current dust models. In contrast, the optimal fraction of clay particles (whose radii are less than 1 ìm) is lower than current model estimates. The optimal solution identified by a combination of data sets is different from that identified by any single data set and is more robust. Uncertainty is introduced into the optimal emission by model biases and the uncertain contribution of other aerosol species to the observations.
The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved.
Two versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2° latitude × 2.5° longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1° in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30° becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3° at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments.
The control simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic.
Both models have been used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/).
Manuscript received 8 December 2004, in final form 18 March 2005
Dentener, Frank, S Kinne, T Bond, Olivier Boucher, J Cofala, S Generoso, Paul Ginoux, S Gong, J J Hoelzemann, Akihiko Ito, L Marelli, Joyce Penner, J-P Putaud, C Textor, M Schulz, Guido R van der Werf, and R John Wilson, 2006: Emissions of primary aerosol and precursor gases in the years 2000 and 1750, prescribed data-sets for AeroCom. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6, 4321-4344. Abstract
Inventories for global aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions, and auxiliary information, have been collected, assessed and prepared for the year 2000 (present-day conditions) and for the year 1750 (pre-industrial conditions). These global datasets establish a reference for input in global modeling, when simulating the aerosol impact on climate with state-of-the-art aerosol component modules. These modules stratify aerosol by type, distinguishing among dust, seasalt, sulfate, organic matter and soot. The datasets are also intended to serve as systematic constraints in sensitivity studies of the AeroCom initiative, which aims to evaluate uncertainties in aerosol global modeling. The datasets comprise daily size-resolved emissions of sea-salt and dust and monthly-to-yearly emissions for all other currently known emissions of natural and anthropogenic aerosol (precursors). The emissions are a reference dataset for aerosol modeling in the coming years and benchmark the emissions according to our knowledge in the year 2004.
Ginoux, Paul, Larry W Horowitz, V Ramaswamy, I V Geogdzhayev, B Holben, Georgiy Stenchikov, and X Tie, 2006: Evaluation of aerosol distribution and optical depth in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled model CM2.1 for present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D22210, DOI:10.1029/2005JD006707. Abstract
This study evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of aerosol distributions and optical depths that are used to force the GFDL coupled climate model CM2.1. The concentrations of sulfate, organic carbon, black carbon, and dust are simulated using the MOZART model (Horowitz, 2006), while sea-salt concentrations are obtained from a previous study by Haywood et al. (1999). These aerosol distributions and precalculated relative-humidity-dependent specific extinction are utilized in the CM2.1 radiative scheme to calculate the aerosol optical depth. Our evaluation of the mean values (1996–2000) of simulated aerosols is based on comparisons with long-term mean climatological data from ground-based and remote sensing observations as well as previous modeling studies. Overall, the predicted concentrations of aerosol are within a factor 2 of the observed values and have a tendency to be overestimated. Comparison with satellite data shows an agreement within 10% of global mean optical depth. This agreement masks regional differences of opposite signs in the optical depth. Essentially, the excessive optical depth from sulfate aerosols compensates for the underestimated contribution from organic and sea-salt aerosols. The largest discrepancies are over the northeastern United States (predicted optical depths are too high) and over biomass burning regions and southern oceans (predicted optical depths are too low). This analysis indicates that the aerosol properties are very sensitive to humidity, and major improvements could be achieved by properly taking into account their hygroscopic growth together with corresponding modifications of their optical properties.
Kinne, S, M Schulz, C Textor, S Guibert, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E Bauer, Paul Ginoux, Michael Herzog, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., 2006: An AeroCom initial assessment – optical properties in aerosol component modules of global models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6, 1815-1834. Abstract PDF
The AeroCom exercise diagnoses multi-component aerosol modules in global modeling. In an initial assessment simulated global distributions for mass and mid-visible aerosol optical thickness (aot) were compared among 20 different modules. Model diversity was also explored in the context of previous comparisons. For the component combined aot general agreement has improved for the annual global mean. At 0.11 to 0.14, simulated aot values are at the lower end of global averages suggested by remote sensing from ground (AERONET ca. 0.135) and space (satellite composite ca. 0.15). More detailed comparisons, however, reveal that larger differences in regional distribution and significant differences in compositional mixture remain. Of particular concern are large model diversities for contributions by dust and carbonaceous aerosol, because they lead to significant uncertainty in aerosol absorption (aab). Since aot and aab, both, influence the aerosol impact on the radiative energy-balance, the aerosol (direct) forcing uncertainty in modeling is larger than differences in aot might suggest. New diagnostic approaches are proposed to trace model differences in terms of aerosol processing and transport: These include the prescription of common input (e.g. amount, size and injection of aerosol component emissions) and the use of observational capabilities from ground (e.g. measurements networks) or space (e.g. correlations between aerosol and clouds).
Miller, Ron L., R V Cakmur, J Perlwitz, I V Geogdzhayev, Paul Ginoux, D Koch, K E Kohfeld, C Prigent, R Ruedy, Gavin A Schmidt, and I Tegen, 2006: Mineral dust aerosols in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE atmospheric general circulation model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D06208, DOI:10.1029/2005JD005796. Abstract
We describe an updated model of the dust aerosol cycle embedded within the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ‘ModelE’ atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The model dust distribution is compared to observations ranging from aerosol optical thickness and surface concentration to deposition and size distribution. The agreement with observations is improved compared to previous distributions computed by either an older version of the GISS AGCM or an offline tracer transport model. The largest improvement is in dust transport over the Atlantic due to increased emission over the Sahara. This increase comes from subgrid wind fluctuations associated with dry convective eddies driven by intense summertime heating. Representation of ‘preferred sources’ of soil dust particles is also fundamental to the improvement. The observations suggest that deposition is too efficient in the model, partly due to AGCM rainfall errors.
Textor, C, M Schulz, S Guibert, S Kinne, Yves Balkanski, Susanne E Bauer, T F Berglen, Paul Ginoux, and Larry W Horowitz, et al., 2006: Analysis and quantification of the diversities of aerosol life cycles within AeroCom. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6(7), 1777-1813. Abstract PDF
Simulation results of global aerosol models have been assembled in the framework of the AeroCom intercomparison exercise. In this paper, we analyze the life cycles of dust, sea salt, sulfate, black carbon and particulate organic matter as simulated by sixteen global aerosol models. The differences among the results (model diversities) for sources and sinks, burdens, particle sizes, water uptakes, and spatial dispersals have been established. These diversities have large consequences for the calculated radiative forcing and the aerosol concentrations at the surface. Processes and parameters are identified which deserve further research.
The AeroCom all-models-average emissions are dominated by the mass of sea salt (SS), followed by dust (DU), sulfate (SO4), particulate organic matter (POM), and finally black carbon (BC). Interactive parameterizations of the emissions and contrasting particles sizes of SS and DU lead generally to higher diversities of these species, and for total aerosol. The lower diversity of the emissions of the fine aerosols, BC, POM, and SO4, is due to the use of similar emission inventories, and does therefore not necessarily indicate a better understanding of their sources. The diversity of SO4-sources is mainly caused by the disagreement on depositional loss of precursor gases and on chemical production. The diversities of the emissions are passed on to the burdens, but the latter are also strongly affected by the model-specific treatments of transport and aerosol processes. The burdens of dry masses decrease from largest to smallest: DU, SS, SO4, POM, and BC.
The all-models-average residence time is shortest for SS with about half a day, followed by SO4 and DU with four days, and POM and BC with six and seven days, respectively. The wet deposition rate is controlled by the solubility and increases from DU, BC, POM to SO4 and SS. It is the dominant sink for SO4, BC, and POM, and contributes about one third to the total removal of SS and DU species. For SS and DU we find high diversities for the removal rate coefficients and deposition pathways. Models do neither agree on the split between wet and dry deposition, nor on that between sedimentation and other dry deposition processes. We diagnose an extremely high diversity for the uptake of ambient water vapor that influences the particle size and thus the sink rate coefficients. Furthermore, we find little agreement among the model results for the partitioning of wet removal into scavenging by convective and stratiform rain.
Large differences exist for aerosol dispersal both in the vertical and in the horizontal direction. In some models, a minimum of total aerosol concentration is simulated at the surface. Aerosol dispersal is most pronounced for SO4 and BC and lowest for SS. Diversities are higher for meridional than for vertical dispersal, they are similar for the individual species and highest for SS and DU. For these two components we do not find a correlation between vertical and meridional aerosol dispersal. In addition the degree of dispersals of SS and DU is not related to their residence times. SO4, BC, and POM, however, show increased meridional dispersal in models with larger vertical dispersal, and dispersal is larger for longer simulated residence times.
Washington, R, M C Todd, G Lizcano, I Tegen, C Flamant, I Koren, Paul Ginoux, S Engelstaedter, C S Bristow, C S Zender, A S Goudie, A Warren, and J M Prospero, 2006: Links between topography, wind, deflation, lakes and dust: The case of the Bodélé Depression, Chad. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L09401, DOI:10.1029/2006GL025827. Abstract
The Bodélé Depression, Chad is the planet's largest single source of dust. Deflation from the Bodélé could be seen as a simple coincidence of two key prerequisites: strong surface winds and a large source of suitable sediment. But here we hypothesise that long term links between topography, winds, deflation and dust ensure the maintenance of the dust source such that these two apparently coincidental key ingredients are connected by land-atmosphere processes with topography acting as the overall controlling agent. We use a variety of observational and numerical techniques, including a regional climate model, to show that: 1) contemporary deflation from the Bodélé is delineated by topography and a surface wind stress maximum; 2) the Tibesti and Ennedi mountains play a key role in the generation of the erosive winds in the form of the Bodélé Low Level Jet (LLJ); 3) enhanced deflation from a stronger Bodélé LLJ during drier phases, for example, the Last Glacial Maximum, was probably sufficient to create the shallow lake in which diatoms lived during wetter phases, such as the Holocene pluvial. Winds may therefore have helped to create the depression in which erodible diatom material accumulated. Instead of a simple coincidence of nature, dust from the world's largest source may result from the operation of long term processes on paleo timescales which have led to ideal conditions for dust generation in the world's largest dust source. Similar processes plausibly operate in other dust hotspots in topographic depressions.
Kaufman, Y J., I Koren, L Remer, D Tanré, Paul Ginoux, and Songmiao Fan, 2005: Dust transport and deposition observed from the Terra-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) spacecraft over the Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D10S12, DOI:10.1029/2003JD004436. Abstract
Meteorological observations, in situ data, and satellite images of dust episodes were used already in the 1970s to estimate that 100 Tg of dust are transported from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean every year between June and August and are deposited in the Atlantic Ocean and the Americas. Desert dust is a main source of nutrients to oceanic biota and the Amazon forest, but it deteriorates air quality, as shown for Florida. Dust affects the Earth radiation budget, thus participating in climate change and feedback mechanisms. There is an urgent need for new tools for quantitative evaluation of the dust distribution, transport, and deposition. The Terra spacecraft, launched at the dawn of the last millennium, provides the first systematic well-calibrated multispectral measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument for daily global analysis of aerosol. MODIS data are used here to distinguish dust from smoke and maritime aerosols and to evaluate the African dust column concentration, transport, and deposition. We found that 240 ± 80 Tg of dust are transported annually from Africa to the Atlantic Ocean, 140 ± 40 Tg are deposited in the Atlantic Ocean, 50 Tg fertilize the Amazon Basin (four times as previous estimates, thus explaining a paradox regarding the source of nutrition to the Amazon forest), 50 Tg reach the Caribbean, and 20 Tg return to Africa and Europe. The results are compared favorably with dust transport models for maximum particle diameter between 6 and 12 ìm. This study is a first example of quantitative use of MODIS aerosol for a geophysical research.
Lamarque, Jean-Francois, J T Kiehl, P G Hess, William D Collins, Louisa K Emmons, Paul Ginoux, C Luo, and X Tie, 2005: Response of a coupled chemistry-climate model to changes in aerosol emissions: Global impact on the hydrological cycle and the tropospheric burdens of OH, ozone, and NOx. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L16809, DOI:10.1029/2005GL023419. Abstract
In this study, we analyze the response of the coupled chemistry-climate system to changes in aerosol emissions in fully coupled atmospheric chemistry-climate-slab ocean model simulations; only the direct radiative effect of aerosols and their uptake of chemical species are considered in this study. We show that, at the global scale, a decrease in emissions of the considered aerosols (or their precursors) produces a warmer and moister climate. In addition, the tropospheric burdens of OH and ozone increase when aerosol emissions are decreased. The ozone response is a combination of the impact of reduced heterogeneous uptake of N2O5 and increased ozone loss in a moister atmosphere. Under reduced aerosol emissions, the tropospheric burden of NOx (NO + NO2) is strongly reduced by an increase in nitric acid formation but also increased by the reduced N2O5 uptake. Finally, we discuss the significant difference found between the combined impact of all aerosols emissions and the sum of their individual contributions.
This study simulates the direct radiative forcing of organic aerosol using the GFDL AM2 GCM. The aerosol climatology is provided by the MOZART chemical transport model (CTM). The approach to calculating aerosol optical properties explicitly considers relative humidity–dependent hygroscopic growth by employing a functional group–based thermodynamic model, and makes use of the size distribution derived from AERONET measurements. The preindustrial (PI) and present-day (PD) global burdens of organic carbon are 0.17 and 1.36 Tg OC, respectively. The annual global mean total-sky and clear-sky top-of-the atmosphere (TOA) forcings (PI to PD) are estimated as −0.34 and −0.71 W m−2, respectively. Geographically the radiative cooling largely lies over the source regions, namely part of South America, Central Africa, Europe and South and East Asia. The annual global mean total-sky and clear-sky surface forcings are −0.63 and −0.98 W m−2, respectively. A series of sensitivity analyses shows that the treatments of hygroscopic growth and optical properties of organic aerosol are intertwined in the determination of the global organic aerosol forcing. For example, complete deprivation of water uptake by hydrophilic organic particles reduces the standard (total-sky) and clear-sky TOA forcing estimates by 18% and 20%, respectively, while the uptake by a highly soluble organic compound (malonic acid) enhances them by 18% and 32%, respectively. Treating particles as non-absorbing enhances aerosol reflection and increases the total-sky and clear-sky TOA forcing by 47% and 18%, respectively, while neglecting the scattering brought about by the water associated with particles reduces them by 24% and 7%, respectively.
Ming, Yi, V Ramaswamy, Paul Ginoux, Larry W Horowitz, and L M Russell, 2005: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model investigation of the indirect radiative effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D22206, DOI:10.1029/2005JD006161. Abstract
The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmosphere general circulation model, with its new cloud scheme, is employed to study the indirect radiative effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol during the industrial period. The preindustrial and present-day monthly mean aerosol climatologies are generated from running the Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers (MOZART) chemistry-transport model. The respective global annual mean sulfate burdens are 0.22 and 0.81 Tg S. Cloud droplet number concentrations are related to sulfate mass concentrations using an empirical relationship (Boucher and Lohmann, 1995). A distinction is made between "forcing" and flux change at the top of the atmosphere in this study. The simulations, performed with prescribed sea surface temperature, show that the first indirect "forcing" ("Twomey" effect) amounts to an annual mean of -1.5 W m-2, concentrated largely over the oceans in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The annual mean flux change owing to the response of the model to the first indirect effect is -1.4 W m-2, similar to the annual mean forcing. However, the model's response causes a rearrangement of cloud distribution as well as changes in longwave flux (smaller than solar flux changes). There is thus a differing geographical nature of the radiation field than for the forcing even though the global means are similar. The second indirect effect, which is necessarily an estimate made in terms of the model's response, amounts to -0.9 W m-2, but the statistical significance of the simulated geographical distribution of this effect is relatively low owing to the model's natural variability. Both the first and second effects are approximately linearly additive, giving rise to a combined annual mean flux change of -2.3 W m-2, with the NH responsible for 77% of the total flux change. Statistically significant model responses are obtained for the zonal mean total indirect effect in the entire NH and in the Southern Hemisphere low latitudes and midlatitudes (north of 45°S). The area of significance extends more than for the first and second effects considered separately. A comparison with a number of previous studies based on the same sulfate-droplet relationship shows that, after distinguishing between forcing and flux change, the global mean change in watts per square meter for the total effect computed in this study is comparable to existing studies in spite of the differences in cloud schemes.
Tie, X, S Madronich, S Walters, D P Edwards, Paul Ginoux, Natalie M. Mahowald, R-Y Zhang, C Lou, and G P Brasseur, 2005: Assessment of the global impact of aerosols on tropospheric oxidants. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D03204, DOI:10.1029/2004JD005359. Abstract
We present here a fully coupled global aerosol and chemistry model for the troposphere. The model is used to assess the interactions between aerosols and chemical oxidants in the troposphere, including (1) the conversion from gas-phase oxidants into the condensed phase during the formation of aerosols, (2) the heterogeneous reactions occurring on the surface of aerosols, and (3) the effect of aerosols on ultraviolet radiation and photolysis rates. The present study uses the global three-dimensional chemical/transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2), in which aerosols are coupled with the model. The model accounts for the presence of sulfate, soot, primary organic carbon, ammonium nitrate, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust particles. The simulated global distributions of the aerosols are analyzed and evaluated using satellite measurements (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) and surface measurements. The results suggest that in northern continental regions the tropospheric aerosol loading is highest in Europe, North America, and east Asia. Sulfate, organic carbon, black carbon, and ammonium nitrate are major contributions for the high aerosol loading in these regions. Aerosol loading is also high in the Amazon and in Africa. In these areas the aerosols consist primarily of organic carbon and black carbon. Over the southern high-latitude ocean (around 60°S), high concentrations of sea-salt aerosol are predicted. The concentration of mineral dust is highest over the Sahara and, as a result of transport, spread out into adjacent regions. The model and MODIS show similar geographical distributions of aerosol particles. However, the model overestimates the sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol in the eastern United States, Europe, and east Asia. In the region where aerosol loading is high, aerosols have important impacts on tropospheric ozone and other oxidants. The model suggests that heterogeneous reactions of HO2 and CH2O on sulfate have an important impact on HOx (OH + HO2) concentrations, while the heterogeneous reaction of O3 on soot has a minor effect on O3 concentrations in the lower troposphere. The heterogeneous reactions on dust have very important impacts on HOx and O3 in the region of dust mobilization, where the reduction of HOx and O3concentrations can reach a maximum of 30% and 20%, respectively, over the Sahara desert. Dust, organic carbon, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols have important impacts on photolysis rates. For example, the photodissociation frequencies of ozone and nitrogen dioxide are reduced by 20% at the surface in the Sahara, in the Amazon, and in eastern Asia, leading to 5–20% reduction in the concentration of HOx and to a few percent change in the O3 abundance in these regions.
Barnum, B H., N S Winstead, J Wesely, A Hakola, Peter R Colarco, O B Toon, Paul Ginoux, G Brooks, L Hasselbarth, and B Toth, 2004: Forecasting dust storms using the CARMA-dust model and MM5 weather data. Environmental Modelling and Software, 19(2), 129-140. Abstract PDF
An operational model for the forecast of dust storms in Northern Africa, the Middle East and Southwest Asia has been developed for the United States Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). The dust forecast model uses the 5th generation Penn State Mesoscale Meteorology Model (MM5) as input to the University of Colorado CARMA dust transport model. AFWA undertook a 60 day evaluation of the effectiveness of the dust model to make short, medium and long- range (72 h) forecasts of dust storms. The study is unique in using satellite and ground observations of dust storms to score the model’s effectiveness using standard meteorological statistics. Each of the main forecast regions was broken down into smaller areas for more detailed analysis. The study found the forecast model is an effective forecast tool with Probability of Detection of dust storm occurrence exceeding 68 percent over Northern Africa, with a 16 percent False Alarm Rate. Southwest Asia forecasts had average Probability of Detection values of 61 percent with False Alarm Rates averaging 10 percent.
Chin, Mian, A Chu, R Levy, L Remer, Y J Kaufman, B Holben, T Eck, Paul Ginoux, and Q Gao, 2004: Aerosol distribution in the Northern Hemisphere during ACE-Asia: Results from global model, satellite observations, and Sun photometer measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D23S90, DOI:10.1029/2004JD004829. Abstract PDF
We analyze the aerosol distribution and composition in the Northern Hemisphere during the Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) field experiment in spring 2001. We use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model in this study, in conjunction with satellite retrieval from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on EOS-Terra satellite and Sun photometer measurements from the worldwide Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Statistical analysis methods including histograms, mean bias, root-mean-square error, correlation coefficients, and skill scores are applied to quantify the differences between the MODIS 1° × 1° gridded data, the daytime average AERONET data, and the daily mean 2° × 2.5° resolution model results. Both MODIS and the model show relatively high aerosol optical thickness (τ) near the source regions of Asia, Europe, and northern Africa, and they agree on major features of the long-range transport of aerosols from their source regions to the neighboring oceans. The τ values from MODIS and from the model have similar probability distributions in the extratropical oceans and in Europe, but MODIS is approximately 2–3 times as high as the model in North/Central America and nearly twice as high in Asia and over the tropical/subtropical oceans. Comparisons with the AERONET measurements in the Northern Hemisphere demonstrate that in general the model and the AERONET data have comparable values and similar probability distributions of τ, whereas MODIS tends to report higher values of τ over land, particularly North/Central America. The MODIS high bias is primarily attributed to the difficulties in land algorithm dealing with surface reflectance over inhomogeneous and bright land surfaces, including mountaintops, arid areas, and areas of snow/ice melting and with land/water mixed pixels. The model estimates that on average, sulfate, carbon, dust, and sea salt comprise 30%, 25%, 32%, and 13%, respectively, of the 550-nm τ in April 2001 in the Northern Hemisphere, with ∼46% of the total τ from anthropogenic activities and 66% from fine mode aerosols.
Ginoux, Paul, J M Prospero, O Torres, and Mian Chin, 2004: Long-term simulation of global dust distribution with the GOCART model: Correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation. Environmental Modelling and Software, 19(2), DOI:10.1016/S1364-8152(03)00114-2. Abstract PDF
Global distribution of aeolian dust is simulated from 1981 to 1996 with the Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The results are compared with in situ measurements and satellite data. An index is calculated from the model results and the satellite viewing angles to allow quantitative comparison with the Total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) absorbing aerosol index. The annual budget over the different continents and oceans are analyzed. The simulated annual emission varies from a minimum of 1950 Tg in 1996 to a maximum of 2400 Tg in 1988. Of these emissions, 65% is from North Africa and 25% from Asia. It is found that North America received twice as much dust from other continents than it emits per year. There is no significant trend over the 16-year simulation. The inter-annual variability of dust distribution is analyzed over the North Atlantic and Africa. It is found that in winter a large fraction of the North Atlantic and Africa dust loading is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. It is shown that a controlling factor of such correlation can be attributed to dust emission from the Sahel. The Bodele depression is the major dust source in winter and its inter-annual variability is highly correlated with the NAO. However, the long record of dust concentration measured at Barbados indicates that there is no correlation with the NAO index and surface concentration in winter. Longer simulation should provide the information needed to understand if the effects of the NAO on dust distribution is rather limited or Barbados is at the edge of the affected region.
Ansmann, A, J Bösenberg, A Chaikovsky, A Comerón, S Eckhardt, R Eixmann, V Freudenthaler, Paul Ginoux, L Komguem, H Linné, P Marquet, I Mattis, V Mitev, D Müller, S Music, S Nickovic, J Pelon, L Sauvage, P Sobolewsky, M K Srivastava, A Stohl, O Torres, G Vaughan, U Wandinger, and M Wiegner, December 2003: Long-range transport of Saharan dust to northern Europe: The 11-16 October 2001 outbreak observed with EARLINET. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D24), 4783, DOI:10.1029/2003JD003757. Abstract PDF
The spread of mineral particles over southwestern, western, and central Europe resulting from a strong Saharan dust outbreak in October 2001 was observed at 10 stations of the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET). For the first time, an optically dense desert dust plume over Europe was characterized coherently with high vertical resolution on a continental scale. The main layer was located above the boundary layer (above 1-km height above sea level (asl)) up to 3–5-km height, and traces of dust particles reached heights of 7–8 km. The particle optical depth typically ranged from 0.1 to 0.5 above 1-km height asl at the wavelength of 532 nm, and maximum values close to 0.8 were found over northern Germany. The lidar observations are in qualitative agreement with values of optical depth derived from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data. Ten-day backward trajectories clearly indicated the Sahara as the source region of the particles and revealed that the dust layer observed, e.g., over Belsk, Poland, crossed the EARLINET site Aberystwyth, UK, and southern Scandinavia 24–48 hours before. Lidar-derived particle depolarization ratios, backscatter- and extinction-related Ångström exponents, and extinction-to-backscatter ratios mainly ranged from 15 to 25%, -0.5 to 0.5, and 40–80 sr, respectively, within the lofted dust plumes. A few atmospheric model calculations are presented showing the dust concentration over Europe. The simulations were found to be consistent with the network observations.
Chin, Mian, Paul Ginoux, R Lucchesi, B Huebert, R J Weber, Jeffrey L Anderson, S Masonis, B Blomquist, A Bandy, and D Thornton, 2003: A global aerosol model forecast for the ACE-Asia field experiment. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D23), 8654, DOI:10.1029/2003JD003642. Abstract PDF
We present the results of aerosol forecast during the ACE-Asia field experiment in spring 2001, using the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and the meteorological forecast fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The model provides direct information on aerosol optical thickness and concentrations for effective flight planning, while feedbacks from measurements constantly evaluate the model for successful model improvements. We verify the model forecast skill by comparing model-predicted aerosol quantities and meteorological variables with those measured by the C-130 aircraft. The GEOS DAS meteorological forecast system shows excellent skills in predicting winds, relative humidity, and temperature, with skill scores usually in the range of 0.7-0.99. The model is also skillful in forecasting pollution aerosols, with most scores above 0.5. The model correctly predicted the dust outbreak events and their trans-Pacific transport, but it constantly missed the high dust concentrations observed in the boundary layer. We attribute this "missing" dust source to desertification regions in the Inner Mongolia Province in China, which have developed in recent years but were not included in the model during forecasting. After incorporating the desertification sources, the model is able to reproduce the observed boundary layer high dust concentrations over the Yellow Sea. We demonstrate that our global model can not only account for the large-scale intercontinental transport but also produce the small-scale spatial and temporal variations that are adequate for aircraft measurements planning.
Erickson III, D J., J L Hernandez, Paul Ginoux, W Gregg, C R McClain, and J Christian, 2003: Atmospheric iron delivery and surface ocean biological activity in the Southern Ocean and Patagonian region. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(12), 1609, DOI:10.1029/2003GL017241. Abstract PDF
Iron is a limiting nutrient for biologic activity in much
of the world ocean. We present a method to quantitatively
address the response of surface ocean biology to inputs of
atmospheric Fe associated with atmospheric dust. We merge
two enabling technologies, global models of Earth system
processes and satellite derived chlorophyll concentrations to
assess the importance of Fe in oceanic biogeochemistry. We
present an objective correlation analysis to elucidate the
spatial response of chlorophyll to iron flux considering the
ocean surface meridional center of mass in areas with high
correlation. Several regions between 40S and 60S show
correlations from 0.6 to 0.95, significant at the 0.05 level,
particularly the Patagonian region. Surface chlorophyll and
iron flux follow similar patterns, however chlorophyll may
be displaced to different latitudes than where Fe input occurs
due to meridional ocean transport. INDEX TERMS: 1615
Global Change: Biogeochemical processes (4805); 1640 Global
Change: Remote sensing; 0305 Atmospheric Composition and
Structure: Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801); 0312 Atmospheric
Composition and Structure: Air/sea constituent fluxes (3339,
4504); 0330 Atmospheric Composition and Structure:
Geochemical cycles.
The dependency of nonsphericity on gravitational settling of mineral dust particles is parameterized for prolate ellipsoids and Reynolds number lower than 2. The settling speed is numerically solved from the momentum equation as a function of particle diameter and aspect ratio. The reduction of settling speed due to nonsphericity is included in the Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model to simulate dust size distribution for April 2001. Two numerical schemes for solving sedimentation are compared. For particles of diameter greater than 5 mum, the simulated size distribution is sensitive to the numerical sedimentation scheme. Changing the particle shape from spherical to nonspherical with lambda = 2 makes little difference to the simulated surface concentration and size distribution except at the periphery of the dust sources. However, when very elongated particles ( lambda = 5) are simulated, the differences between nonspherical and spherical particles are significant. With limited in situ measurements reporting most frequent lambda around 1.5, the overall effects on global modeling is rather negligible and the essential benefit is to relax the CFL condition of Eulerian settling schemes.
Ginoux, Paul, and O Torres, 2003: Empirical TOMS index for dust aerosol: Applications to model validation and source characterization. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D17), 4534, DOI:10.1029/2003JD003470. Abstract PDF
An empirical relation is developed to express the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index (AI) for the case of dust plumes, as an explicit function of four physical quantities: the single scattering albedo, optical thickness, altitude of the plume and surface pressure. This relation allows sensitivity analysis of the TOMS AI with physical properties, quantitative comparison with dust model results and physical analysis of dust sources, without the necessity of cumbersome radiative calculation. Two applications are presented: (1) the case study of a dust storm over the North Atlantic in March 1988, and (2) the characterization of 13 major dust sources. The first application shows that simulated dust distribution can be quantitatively compared to TOMS AI on a daily basis and over regions where dust is the dominant aerosol. The second application necessitates to further parameterize the relation by replacing the optical thickness and the altitude of the plume by meteorological variables. The advantage is that surface meteorological fields are easily available globally and for decades but the formulation only applies to dust sources. The daily, seasonal and interannual variability of the parameterized index over major dust sources reproduces correctly the variability of the observed TOMS AI. The correlation between these two indices is used to determine the surface characteristics and physical properties of dust aerosol over the sources.
Gregg, W, M E Conkright, Paul Ginoux, J E O'Reilly, and N W Casey, 2003: Ocean primary production and climate: Global decadal changes. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(15), 1809, DOI:10.1029/2003GL016889. Abstract PDF
Satellite-in situ blended ocean chlorophyll records indicate that global ocean annual primary production has declined more than 6% since the early 1980's. Nearly 70% of the global decadal decline occurred in the high latitudes. In the northern high latitudes, these reductions in primary production corresponded with increases in sea surface temperature and decreases in atmospheric iron deposition to the oceans. In the Antarctic, the reductions were accompanied by increased wind stress. Three of four low latitude basins exhibited decadal increases in annual primary production. These results indicate that ocean photosynthetic uptake of carbon may be changing as a result of climatic changes and suggest major implications for the global carbon cycle.
Gregg, W, Paul Ginoux, P S Schopf, and N W Casey, 2003: Phytoplankton and iron: validation of a global three-dimensional ocean biogeochemical model. Deep-Sea Research, Part II, 50, 3143-3169. Abstract PDF
The JGOFS program and NASA ocean-color satellites have provided a wealth of data that can be used to test and validate models of ocean biogeochemistry. A coupled three-dimensional general circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model of the global oceans was validated using these in situ data sources and satellite data sets. Biogeochemical processes in the model were determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among four phytoplankton functional groups (diatoms, chlorophytes, cyanobacteria, and coccolithophores) and four nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, silica, and dissolved iron).
Annual mean log-transformed dissolved iron concentrations in the model were statistically positively correlated on basin scale with observations (P<0.05) over the eight (out of 12) major oceanographic basins where data were available. The model tended to overestimate in situ observations, except in the Antarctic where a large underestimate occurred. Inadequate scavenging and excessive remineralization and/or regeneration were possible reasons for the overestimation.
Basin scale model chlorophyll seasonal distributions were positively correlated with SeaWiFS chlorophyll in each of the 12 oceanographic basins (P<0.05). The global mean difference was 3.9% (model higher than SeaWiFS).
The four phytoplankton groups were initialized as homogeneous and equal distributions throughout the model domain. After 26 years of simulation, they arrived at reasonable distributions throughout the global oceans: diatoms predominated high latitudes, coastal, and equatorial upwelling areas, cyanobacteria predominated the mid-ocean gyres, and chlorophytes and coccolithophores represented transitional assemblages. Seasonal patterns exhibited a range of relative responses: from a seasonal succession in the North Atlantic with coccolithophores replacing diatoms as the dominant group in mid-summer, to successional patterns with cyanobacteria replacing diatoms in mid-summer in the central North Pacific. Diatoms were associated with regions where nutrient availability was high. Cyanobacteria predominated in quiescent regions with low nutrients.
While the overall patterns of phytoplankton functional group distributions exhibited broad qualitative agreement with in situ data, quantitative comparisons were mixed. Three of the four phytoplankton groups exhibited statistically significant correspondence across basins. Diatoms did not. Some basins exhibited excellent correspondence, while most showed moderate agreement, with two functional groups in agreement with data and the other two in disagreement. The results are encouraging for a first attempt at simulating functional groups in a global coupled three-dimensional model but many issues remain.
Grousset, F E., Paul Ginoux, A Bory, and P E Biscaye, 2003: Case study of a Chinese dust plume reaching the French Alps. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(6), 1277, DOI:10.1029/2002GL016833. Abstract PDF
By combining reconstruction of airmass backtrajectories
from dust deposition sites in Europe and
measurements of the (Nd) isotopic composition of
deposited dust particles, potential sources of different
Saharan dust events can be identified. The study of ‘‘red
dust’’ events collected in France allowed us to identify
distinct North African source areas (e.g. Lybia vs.
Mauritania). Surprisingly, the airmass trajectory of one
dust event (March 6, 1990) was distinct from the others, and
revealed a Chinese origin. The Nd isotopic composition of
this dust was consistent with the range of isotopic
compositions of Chinese loess. Moreover, an atmospheric
global model simulation reveals that a dust plume left China
before February 25, 1990, flew over North America around
the February/March transition and reached the French Alps
by March 6, 1990, revealing that intercontinental dust and
pollutant transport may occur across the Pacific Ocean and
the North Atlantic at the Westerlies latitudes. INDEX
TERMS: 0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols
and particles (0345, 4801); 0322 Atmospheric Composition and
Structure: Constituent sources and sinks; 0345 Atmospheric
Composition and Structure: Pollution—urban and regional
(0305); 0341 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Middle
atmosphere—constituent transport and chemistry (3334); 0368
Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere—
constituent transport and chemistry.
Kinne, S, Ü Lohmann, J Feichter, M Schulz, C Timmreck, S Ghan, R Easter, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, T Takemura, I Tegen, D Koch, Michael Herzog, Joyce Penner, G Pitari, B Holben, T Eck, A Smirnov, O Dubovik, I Slutsker, D Tanré, O Torres, M Mishchenko, I V Geogdzhayev, D A Chu, and Y J Kaufman, 2003: Monthly averages of aerosol properties: a global comparison among models, satellite data, and AERONET ground data. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D20), 4634, DOI:10.1029/2001JD001253. Abstract
New aerosol modules of global (circulation and chemical transport) models are evaluated. These new modules distinguish among at least five aerosol components: sulfate, organic carbon, black carbon, sea salt, and dust. Monthly and regionally averaged predictions for aerosol mass and aerosol optical depth are compared. Differences among models are significant for all aerosol types. The largest differences were found near expected source regions of biomass burning (carbon) and dust. Assumptions for the permitted water uptake also contribute to optical depth differences (of sulfate, organic carbon, and sea salt) at higher latitudes. The decline of mass or optical depth away from recognized sources reveals strong differences in aerosol transport or removal among models. These differences are also a function of altitude, as transport biases of dust do not always extend to other aerosol types. Ratios of optical depth and mass demonstrate large differences in the mass extinction efficiency, even for hydrophobic aerosol. This suggests that efforts of good mass simulations could be wasted or that conversions are misused to cover for poor mass simulations. In an attempt to provide an absolute measure for model skill, simulated total optical depths (when adding contributions from all five aerosol types) are compared to measurements from ground and space. Comparisons to the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) suggest a source strength underestimate in many models, most frequently for (subtropical) tropical biomass or dust. Comparisons to the combined best of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) indicate that away from sources, model simulations are usually smaller. Particularly large are discrepancies over tropical oceans and oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, raising issues on the treatment of sea salt in models. Totals for mass or optical depth in many models are defined by the absence or dominance of only one aerosol component. With appropriate corrections to that component (e.g., to removal, to source strength, or to seasonality) a much better model performance can be expected. Still, many important modeling issues remain inconclusive as the combined result of poor coordination (different emissions and meteorology), insufficient model output (vertical distributions, water uptake by aerosol type), and unresolved measurement issues (retrieval assumptions and temporal or spatial sampling biases).
Martin, Randall V., D J Jacob, R M Yantosca, Mian Chin, and Paul Ginoux, 2003: Global and regional decreases in tropospheric oxidants from photochemical effects of aerosols. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D3), 4097, DOI:10.1029/2002JD002622. Abstract PDF
We evaluate the sensitivity of tropospheric OH, O3, and O3 precursors to photochemical effects of aerosols not usually included in global models: (1) aerosol scattering and absorption of ultraviolet radiation and (2) reactive uptake of HO, NO, and NO3. Our approach is to couple a global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) with aerosol fields from a global 3-D aerosol model (GOCART). Reactive uptake by aerosols is computed using reaction probabilities from a recent review ((HO = 0.2, (NO = 10-4, (NO3 = 10-3). Aerosols decrease the O3 ® O(1D) photolysis frequency by 5–20% at the surface throughout the Northern Hemisphere (largely due to mineral dust) and by a factor of 2 in biomass burning regions (largely due to black carbon). Aerosol uptake of HO accounts for 10–40% of total HOx radical (= OH + peroxy) loss in the boundary layer over polluted continental regions (largely due to sulfate and organic carbon) and for more than 70% over tropical biomass burning regions (largely due to organic carbon). Uptake of NO and NO3 accounts for 10–20% of total HNO3 production over biomass burning regions and less elsewhere. Annual mean OH concentrations decrease by 9% globally and by 5–35% in the boundary layer over the Northern Hemisphere. Simulated CO increases by 5–15 ppbv in the remote Northern Hemisphere, improving agreement with observations. Simulated boundary layer O3 decreases by 15–45 ppbv over India during the biomass burning season in March and by 5–9 ppbv over northern Europe in August, again improving comparison with observations. We find that particulate matter controls would increase surface O3 over Europe and other industrial regions.
Weaver, C, J Joiner, and Paul Ginoux, 2003: Mineral aerosol contamination of TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) temperature and moisture retrievals. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D8), 4246, DOI:10.1029/2002JD002571. Abstract PDF
Since mineral aerosols absorb significant amounts of infrared radiation, they may contribute to errors in the retrievals of atmospheric and surface parameters from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) if the atmosphere is assumed clear. TOVS is an operational sounder on NOAA polar satellites. To see if observed brightness temperatures are reduced by mineral aerosol, we analyzed results from the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) Finite Volume Data Assimilation System (fvDAS). Every 6 hours the assimilated temperature and moisture profiles are used as a first guess in the DAO interactive cloud-clearing TOVS retrieval system. The observed minus the forecast (O–F) brightness temperature, which is a measure of the accuracy of the first guess and radiative transfer parameters, becomes more negative with increasing dust concentrations. Dust concentrations are from the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) model. Since there was no account of dust during this fvDAS run, the dependence of O–F on the estimated atmospheric dust concentrations from GOCART indicates that the dust is affecting the TOVS brightness temperatures. HIRS channels that are sensitive to the surface temperature, lower tropospheric temperature, and moisture are subject to a 0.5 K or more reduction in the brightness temperature during heavy dust loading conditions. The radiative transfer module used in the TOVS retrieval system was modified to account for dust assuming a composition of illite, and the fvDAS run was repeated. Accounting for dust absorption in the retrieval system yields warmer surface temperatures (0.4 K) and warmer lower tropospheric temperatures in regions of moderate dust loading over the tropical Atlantic.
Chin, Mian, Paul Ginoux, S Kinne, O Torres, B Holben, B N Duncan, Randall V Martin, J Logan, A Higurashi, and T Nakajima, 2002: Tropospheric aerosol optical thickness from the GOCART model and comparisons with satellite and Sun photometer measurements. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 59(3), 461-483. Abstract PDF
The Georgia Institute of Technology–Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model is used to simulate the aerosol optical thickness τ for major types of tropospheric aerosols including sulfate, dust, organic carbon (OC), black carbon (BC), and sea salt. The GOCART model uses a dust emission algorithm that quantifies the dust source as a function of the degree of topographic depression, and a biomass burning emission source that includes seasonal and interannual variability based on satellite observations. Results presented here show that on global average, dust aerosol has the highest τ at 500 nm (0.051), followed by sulfate (0.040), sea salt (0.027), OC (0.017), and BC (0.007). There are large geographical and seasonal variations of τ, controlled mainly by emission, transport, and hygroscopic properties of aerosols. The model calculated total τs at 500 nm have been compared with the satellite retrieval products from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) over both land and ocean and from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) over the ocean. The model reproduces most of the prominent features in the satellite data, with an overall agreement within a factor of 2 over the aerosol source areas and outflow regions. While there are clear differences among the satellite products, a major discrepancy between the model and the satellite data is that the model shows a stronger variation of τ from source to remote regions. Quantitative comparison of model and satellite data is still difficult, due to the large uncertainties involved in deriving the τ values by both the model and satellite retrieval, and by the inconsistency in physical and optical parameters used between the model and the satellite retrieval. The comparison of monthly averaged model results with the sun photometer network [Aerosol Robotics Network (AERONET)] measurements shows that the model reproduces the seasonal variations at most of the sites, especially the places where biomass burning or dust aerosol dominates.
Martin, Randall V., Arlene M Fiore, and Paul Ginoux, et al., 2002: Interpretation of TOMS observations of tropical tropospheric ozone with a global model and in situ observations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107(D18), 4351, DOI:10.1029/2001JD001480. Abstract PDF
We interpret the distribution of tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOCs) from
the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) by using a global three-dimensional
model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) and additional information from in situ
observations. The GEOS-CHEM TTOCs capture 44% of the variance of monthly mean
TOMS TTOCs from the convective cloud differential method (CCD) with no global bias.
Major discrepancies are found over northern Africa and south Asia where the TOMS
TTOCs do not capture the seasonal enhancements from biomass burning found in the
model and in aircraft observations. A characteristic feature of these northern tropical
enhancements, in contrast to southern tropical enhancements, is that they are driven by the
lower troposphere where the sensitivity of TOMS is poor due to Rayleigh scattering. We
develop an efficiency correction to the TOMS retrieval algorithm that accounts for the
variability of ozone in the lower troposphere. This efficiency correction increases TTOCs
over biomass burning regions by 3–5 Dobson units (DU) and decreases them by 2–5 DU
over oceanic regions, improving the agreement between CCD TTOCs and in situ
observations. Applying the correction to CCD TTOCs reduces by ~5 DU the magnitude
of the ‘‘tropical Atlantic paradox’’ [Thompson et al., 2000], i.e. the presence of a TTOC
enhancement over the southern tropical Atlantic during the northern African biomass
burning season in December–February. We reproduce the remainder of the paradox in the
model and explain it by the combination of upper tropospheric ozone production from
lightning NOx, persistent subsidence over the southern tropical Atlantic as part of the
Walker circulation, and cross-equatorial transport of upper tropospheric ozone from
northern midlatitudes in the African ‘‘westerly duct.’’ These processes in the model can
also account for the observed 13–17 DU persistent wave-1 pattern in TTOCs with a
maximum over the tropical Atlantic and a minimum over the tropical Pacific during all
seasons. The photochemical effects of mineral dust have only a minor role on the modeled
distribution of TTOCs, including over northern Africa, due to multiple competing effects.
The photochemical effects of mineral dust globally decrease annual mean OH
concentrations by 9%. A global lightning NOx source of 6 Tg N yr-1 in the model
produces a simulation that is most consistent with TOMS and in situ observations.
Penner, Joyce, S Zhang, Mian Chin, C C Chuang, J Feichter, Y Feng, I V Geogdzhayev, Paul Ginoux, Michael Herzog, and Brian J Soden, et al., 2002: A comparison of model- and satellite-derived aerosol optical depth and reflectivity. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 59(3), 441-460. Abstract PDF
The determination of an accurate quantitative understanding of the role of tropospheric aerosols in the earth's radiation budget is extremely important because forcing by anthropogenic aerosols presently represents one of the most uncertain aspects of climate models. Here the authors present a systematic comparison of three different analyses of satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-measured radiances with optical depths derived from six different models. Also compared are the model-derived clear-sky reflected shortwave radiation with satellite-measured reflectivities derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite.
The three different satellite-derived optical depths differ by between -0.10 and 0.07 optical depth units in comparison to the average of the three analyses depending on latitude and month, but the general features of the retrievals are similar. The models differ by between -0.09 and +0.16 optical depth units from the average of the models. Differences between the average of the models and the average of the satellite analyses range over -0.11 to +0.05 optical depth units. These differences are significant since the annual average clear-sky radiative forcing associated with the difference between the average of the models and the average of the satellite analyses ranges between -3.9 and 0.7 W m-2 depending on latitude and is -1.7 W m-2 on a global average annual basis. Variations in the source strengths of dimethylsulfide-derived aerosols and sea salt aerosols can explain differences between the models, and between the models and satellite retrievals of up to 0.2 optical depth units.
The comparison of model-generated reflected shortwave radiation and ERBE-measured shortwave radiation is similar in character as a function of latitude to the analysis of modeled and satellite-retrieved optical depths, but the differences between the modeled clear-sky reflected flux and the ERBE clear-sky reflected flux is generally larger than that inferred from the difference between the models and the AVHRR optical depths, especially at high latitudes. The difference between the mean of the models and the ERBE-analyzed clear-sky flux is 1.6 W m-2.
The overall comparison indicates that the model-generated aerosol optical depth is systematically lower than that inferred from measurements between the latitudes of 10° and 30°S. It is not likely that the shortfall is due to small values of the sea salt optical depth because increases in this component would create modeled optical depths that are larger than those from satellites in the region north of 30°N and near 50°S. Instead, the source strengths for DMS and biomass aerosols in the models may be too low. Firm conclusions, however, will require better retrieval procedures for the satellites, including better cloud screening procedures, further improvement of the model's treatment of aerosol transport and removal, and a better determination of aerosol source strengths.
Prospero, J M., Paul Ginoux, O Torres, S E Nicholson, and T E Gill, 2002: Environmental characterization of global sources of atmospheric soil dust identified with the NIMBUS 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) absorbing aerosol product. Reviews of Geophysics, 40(1), 1002, DOI:10.1029/2000RG000095. Abstract PDF
We use the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) sensor on the Nimbus 7 satellite to map the global distribution of major atmospheric dust sources with the goal of identifying common environmental characteristics. The largest and most persistent sources are located in the Northern Hemisphere, mainly in a broad "dust belt" that extends from the west coast of North Africa, over the Middle East, Central and South Asia, to China. There is remarkably little large-scale dust activity outside this region. In particular, the Southern Hemisphere is devoid of major dust activity. Dust sources, regardless of size or strength, can usually be associated with topographical lows located in arid regions with annual rainfall under 200-250 mm. Although the source regions themselves are arid or hyperarid, the action of water is evident from the presence of ephemeral streams, rivers, lakes, and playas. Most major sources have been intermittently flooded through the Quaternary as evidenced by deep alluvial deposits. Many sources are associated with areas where human impacts are well documented, e. g., the Caspian and Aral Seas, Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, southwestern North America, and the loess lands in China. Nonetheless, the largest and most active sources are located in truly remote areas where there is little or no human activity. Thus, on a global scale, dust mobilization appears to be dominated by natural sources. Dust activity is extremely sensitive to many environmental parameters. The identification of major sources will enable us to focus on critical regions and to characterize emission rates in response to environmental conditions. With such knowledge we will be better able to improve global dust models and to assess the effects of climate change on emissions in the future. It will also facilitate the interpretation of the paleoclimate record based on dust contained in ocean sediments and ice cores.
Torres, O, P K Bhartia, J R Herman, A Sinyuk, Paul Ginoux, and B Holben, 2002: A long-term record of aerosol optical depth from TOMS observations and comparison to AERONET measurements. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 59(3), 398-413. Abstract PDF
Observations of backscattered near-ultraviolet radiation from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on board the Nimbus-7 (1979-92) and the Earth Probe (mid-1996 to present) satellites have been used to derive a long-term record of aerosol optical depth over oceans and continents. The retrieval technique applied to the TOMS data makes use of two unique advantages of near-UV remote sensing not available in the visible or near-IR: 1) low reflectivity of all land surface types (including the normally bright deserts in the visible), which makes possible aerosol retrieval over the continents; and 2) large sensitivity to aerosol types that absorb in the UV, allowing the clear separation of carbonaceous and mineral aerosols from purely scattering particles such as sulfate and sea salt aerosols. The near-UV method of aerosol characterization is validated by comparison with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) ground-based observations. TOMS retrievals of aerosol optical depth over land areas (1996-2000) are shown to agree reasonably well with AERONET sun photometer observations for a variety of environments characterized by different aerosol types, such as carbonaceous aerosols from biomass burning, desert dust aerosols, and sulfate aerosols. In most cases the TOMS-derived optical depths of UV-absorbing aerosols are within 30% of the AERONET observations, while nonabsorbing optical depths agree to within 20%. The results presented here constitute the first long-term nearly global climatology of aerosol optical depth over both land and water surfaces, extending the observations of aerosol optical depth to regions and times (1979 to present) not accessible to ground-based observations.
Weaver, C, Paul Ginoux, N C Hsu, M-D Chou, and J Joiner, 2002: Radiative forcing of Saharan dust: GOCART model simulations compared with ERBE data. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 59(3), 736-747. Abstract PDF
This study uses information on Saharan aerosol from a dust transport model to calculate radiative forcing values. The transport model is driven by assimilated meteorological fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System. The model produces global three-dimensional dust spatial information for four different mineral aerosol sizes. These dust fields are input to an offline radiative transfer calculation to obtain the direct radiative forcing due to the dust fields. These estimates of the shortwave reduction of radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) compare reasonably well with the TOA reductions derived from Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite data. The longwave radiation also agrees with the observations; however, potential errors in the assimilated temperatures complicate the comparison. Depending on the assumptions used in the calculation and the dust loading, the summertime forcing ranges from 0 to -18 W m-2 over ocean and from 0 to +20 W m-2 over land.
Increments are terms in the assimilation general circulation model (GCM) equations that force the model toward observations. They are differences between the observed analyses and the GCM forecasts. Off west Africa the analysis temperature increments produced by the assimilation system show patterns that are consistent with the dust spatial distribution. It is not believed that radiative heating of dust is influencing the increments. Instead, it is suspected that dust is affecting the Television Infrared Observational Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) satellite temperature retrievals that provide the basis of the assimilated temperatures used by the model.
Ginoux, Paul, Mian Chin, I Tegen, J M Prospero, B Holben, O Dubovik, and Shian-Jiann Lin, 2001: Sources and distributions of dust aerosols simulated with the GOCART model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106(D17), 20,255-20,273. Abstract PDF
The global distribution of dust aerosol is simulated with the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. In, this model all topographic lows with bare ground surface are assumed to have accumulated sediments which are potential dust sources. The uplifting of dust particles is expressed as a function of surface wind speed and wetness. The GOCART model is driven by the assimilated meteorological fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) which facilitates direct comparison with observations. The model includes seven size classes of mineral dust ranging from 0.1-6 mum radius. The total annual emission is estimated to be between 1604 and 1960 Tg yr(-1) in a 5-year simulation. The model has been evaluated by comparing simulation results with ground-based measurements and satellite data. The evaluation has been performed by comparing surface concentrations, vertical distributions, deposition rates, optical thickness, and size distributions. The comparisons show that the model results generally agree with the observations without the necessity of invoking any contribution from anthropogenic disturbances to soils. However, the model overpredicts the transport of dust from the Asian sources to the North Pacific. This discrepancy is attributed to an overestimate of small particle emission from the Asian sources.
