Papers on Transient Climate Sensitivity:

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TCR is generally useful for analyzing 20th and 21st century trends

• Gregory-Forster, 2008:  Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change. JGR

• Held, et al (in press): Probing the fast and slow components of global wrming by returning abruptly to pre-industrial radiative forcing.  J.Climate.

feedbacks can be different in transient and equilibrium responses

• Williams-Ingram-Gregory, 2008: Time Variation of Effective Climate Sensitivity in GCMs, J. Climate

• Winton-Takahashi-Held, 2010:  Importance of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficacy to Transient Climate Change. J. Climate

reductive analysis of feedbacks

• Dufresne-Bony, 2008:  An Assessment of the Primary Sources of Spread of Global Warming Estimates from Coupled Atmosphere?Ocean Models, J. Climate.

difference of opinion as to whether spread in heat uptake across
models is important?

• Boe-Hall-Qu, 2009:  Deep ocean heat uptake as a major source of spread in transient climate change simulations., GRL

• Knutti-Tomassini, 2008: Constraints on the transient climate response from observed global temperature and ocean heat uptake. GRL

• Dufresne-Bony, 2008:  An Assessment of the Primary Sources of Spread of Global Warming Estimates from Coupled Atmosphere?Ocean Models, J. Climate.

empirical estimates 

• Murphy, et al, 2009:  An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950, JGR

• Gregory-Forster, 2008:  Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change. JGR

towards PDFs

• Knutti-Tomassini, 2008: Constraints on the transient climate response from observed global temperature and ocean heat uptake. GRL

•  Prather, et al, 2009:  Tracking uncertainties in the causal chain  from humans activities to climate. GRL

• Collins, etal, 2006:  Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change, Climate Dyn.

• Knutti, et al, 2008:  A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century. J. Climate.

• Knutti-Hegerl, 2008: The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth?s temperature to radiation changes. Nature Geo.

North Atlantic is big enough to be important

• Knight, 2009: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Inferred from the Forced Climate Response in Coupled General Circulation Models, J. Climate

• Zhang-Delworth-Held, 2007:  Can the Atlantic Ocean drive the observed multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature? GRL

evidence that internal component in N.Atlantic has been positive in past
few decades

•  Knight, 2009:  The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Inferred from the Forced Climate Response in Coupled General Circulation Models, J. Climate

•  Latif, et al, 2009:  Internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability in the Kiel Climate Model.  Meteorologische Zeitschrift,.

•  Mahajan, et al, (in press,) Predicting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Variability Using Subsurface and Surface Fingerprints, GRL

•  Polyakov, et al, 2009:  North Atlantic warming: patterns of long-term trend and multidecadal variability, Climate Dyn.—(Erratum)

• Zhang, 2008:  Coherent surface-subsurface fingerprint of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. GRL

trying to filter out internal variability

• Thompson, et al, 2009: Identifying Signatures of Natural Climate Variability in Time Series of Global-Mean Surface Temperature: Methodology and Insights. J. Climate

•  Lean-Rind, 2008; How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006, JGR

• also Delsole and Huang et al (drafts)