GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Mitch Bushuk

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I am broadly interested in polar oceanography and interactions between ice, the ocean and the atmosphere and on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. I am currently focused on the predictability of sea ice on seasonal to interannual timescales, with a goal of assessing the possibility for skillful operational predictions of sea ice. Sea ice is strongly coupled to both the atmosphere and ocean, and exhibits substantial internal variability and trends. The seasonal sea ice prediction problem is a mixture of an initial-value and boundary-value problem, with initial condition accuracy and coupled model fidelity both playing similarly crucial roles. I am working to understand sea ice predicability and prediction skill using a variety of GFDL model experiments–control runs, initialized prediction ensembles, data assimilation runs, historical simulations, and perfect model predictability ensembles–along with observational datasets.