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Seasonal-to-Decadal Variability and Predictability Division

Our goal is to improve our understanding of climate variability, predictability and change on time scales ranging from seasonal to multidecadal. This includes internal variability of the coupled climate system, and the response to changing radiative forcing. We are actively working to develop a next-generation experimental seasonal-to-decadal prediction system.

Research foci:

  1. Improve scientific understanding of the characteristics and mechanisms of seasonal to decadal variability that arise from internal variations of the coupled climate system and their interactions with changing radiative forcings.
  2. Explore seasonal to decadal predictability and develop experimental seasonal to decadal prediction systems. Particular foci will include seasonal to multiseasonal temperature and hydroclimate, including extremes such as drought and extreme storms, as well as decadal-scale variability of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean.
  3. Provide probabilistic assessment of the evolution of the climate system over the next several decades both from natural climate variability and responses to changes in radiative forcings. A focus will be on regional scales and climate extremes, the underlying mechanisms of those changes, and their predictability. Special emphasis will be given to North American hydroclimate and extreme storms.

NOAA

Tom Delworth

Division Leader
Physical Scientist
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Kirsten Findell

Kirsten Findell
Physical Scientist

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Sarah Kapnick

Deputy Division Leader
Research Physical Scientist

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Andrew Wittenberg

Research Physical Scientist
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Fanrong Zeng

Meteorologist
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Collaborators

USGS

Krista Dunne

Krista Dunne
Hydrologist
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Paul C. Milly

Paul C. Milly
Hydrologist
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UCAR

William Cooke

William Cooke
Project Scientist
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Liwei Jia

Liwei Jia
Project Scientist
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Hiroyuki Murakami

Hiroyuki Murakami
Project Scientist
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Anthony Rosati

Anthony Rosati
Visiting Scientist
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Xiaosong Yang

Xiaosong Yang
Project Scientist
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Liping Zhang
Project Scientist
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Princeton University

Veronica Chan

Hoi Ga (Veronica) Chan
CIMES Postdoctoral Research Associate

Nathaniel C. Johnson

Nathaniel C. Johnson
CIMES Associate Research Scholar
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Feiyu Lu

Feiyu Lu
CIMES Associate Research Scholar
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Kai-Chi Tseng

Kai-Chi Tseng
CIMES Postdoctoral Research Associate

Gan Zhang

Gan Zhang
CIMES Postdoctoral Research Associate
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SAIC

Colleen McHugh

Colleen McHugh
Climate Prediction and Software Specialist
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