Seasonal-to-Decadal Variability and Predictability Division

Our goal is to improve our understanding of climate variability, predictability and change on time scales ranging from seasonal to multidecadal. This includes internal variability of the coupled climate system, and the response to changing radiative forcing. We are actively working to develop a next-generation experimental seasonal-to-decadal prediction system (SPEAR: Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research).

Research foci:

Improve scientific understanding of the characteristics and mechanisms of seasonal to decadal variability that arise from internal variations of the coupled climate system and their interactions with changing radiative forcings.
Explore seasonal to decadal predictability and develop experimental seasonal to decadal prediction systems. Particular foci will include seasonal to multiseasonal temperature and hydroclimate, including extremes such as drought and extreme storms, as well as decadal-scale variability of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean.
Provide probabilistic assessment of the evolution of the climate system over the next several decades both from natural climate variability and responses to changes in radiative forcings. A focus will be on regional scales and climate extremes, the underlying mechanisms of those changes, and their predictability. Special emphasis will be given to North American hydroclimate and extreme storms.