Bibliography - Nathaniel C Johnson

1. Black, J, and Nathaniel C Johnson, et al., in press: The Predictors and Forecast Skill of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns for Lead Times of 3-4 Weeks. Monthly Weather Review. DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0394.1. April 2017.
   [ Abstract ]

   The Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO) are three dominant teleconnection patterns known to strongly affect December-February surface weather in the Northern Hemisphere. A partial least-squares regression (PLSR) method is adopted in this study to generate wintertime 2-week statistical forecasts of these three teleconnection pattern indices for lead times of up to five weeks over the 1980-2013 period. The PLSR approach generates forecasts for the teleconnection pattern indices by maximizing the variance explained by predictor indices determined as linear combinations of predictor fields, which include gridded outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), 300-hPa geopotential height (Z300), and 50-hPa geopotential height (Z50). Overall, the PLSR models yield statistically significant skill at all lead times up to five weeks. In particular, cross-validated correlations between the combined weeks 3-4 PLSR forecasts and verification for the PNA, NAO and AO indices are 0.34, 0.28 and 0.41. The PLSR approach also allows the authors to isolate a small number of predictor patterns that help shed light on the sources of prediction skill for each teleconnnection pattern. As expected, the results reveal the importance of tropical convection (OLR) for forecast skill in weeks 3-4, but the initial atmospheric flow (Z300) accounts for a substantial fraction of the skill as well. Overall, the results of this study provide promise for improving subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts and the physical understanding of predictability on these time scales.

2. Ding, Q, A Schweiger, M L L'Heureux, D S Battisti, S Po-Chedley, and Nathaniel C Johnson, et al., April 2017: Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice. Nature Climate Change, 7(4), DOI:10.1038/nclimate3241 .
   [ Abstract ]

   The Arctic has seen rapid sea-ice decline in the past three decades, whilst warming at about twice the global average rate. Yet the relationship between Arctic warming and sea-ice loss is not well understood. Here, we present evidence that trends in summertime atmospheric circulation may have contributed as much as 60% to the September sea-ice extent decline since 1979. A tendency towards a stronger anticyclonic circulation over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean with a barotropic structure in the troposphere increased the downwelling longwave radiation above the ice by warming and moistening the lower troposphere. Model experiments, with reanalysis data constraining atmospheric circulation, replicate the observed thermodynamic response and indicate that the near-surface changes are dominated by circulation changes rather than feedbacks from the changing sea-ice cover. Internal variability dominates the Arctic summer circulation trend and may be responsible for about 30–50% of the overall decline in September sea ice since 1979.

3. Johnson, Nathaniel C., and Y Kosaka, December 2016: The impact of eastern equatorial Pacific convection on the diversity of boreal winter El Niño teleconnection patterns. Climate Dynamics, 47(12), DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3039-1 .
   [ Abstract ]

   It is widely recognized that no two El Niño episodes are the same; hence the predictable variations of the climate impacts associated with El Niño remain an open problem. Through an analysis of observational data and of large ensembles from six climate models forced by the observed time-varying sea surface temperatures (SSTs), this study raises the argument that the most fundamental predictable variations of boreal wintertime El Niño teleconnection patterns relate to the distinction between convective (EPC) and non-convective eastern Pacific (EPN) events. This distinction is a consequence of the nonlinear relationship between deep convection and eastern Pacific SSTs, and the transition to a convective eastern Pacific has a predictable relationship with local and tropical mean SSTs. Notable differences (EPC minus EPN) between the teleconnection patterns include positive precipitation differences over southern North America and northern Europe, positive temperature differences over northeast North America, and negative temperature differences over the Arctic. These differences are stronger and more statistically significant than the more common partitioning between eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niño. Most of the seasonal mean composite anomalies associated with EPN El Niño are not statistically significant owing to the weak SST forcing and small sample sizes; however, the EPN teleconnection is more robust on subseasonal timescales following periods when the EPN pattern of tropical convection is active. These findings suggest that the differences between EPC and EPN climate impacts are physically robust and potentially useful for intraseasonal forecasts for lead times of up to a few weeks.

4. Chang, C-H, and Nathaniel C Johnson, December 2015: The Continuum of Wintertime Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns. Journal of Climate, 28(24), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00739.1 .
   [ Abstract ]

   This study uses the method of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to categorize the June-August atmospheric teleconnections in the 500-hPa geopotential height field of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics. This approach yields 12 SOM patterns that provide a discretized representation of the continuum of SH teleconnection patterns from 1979 to 2012. These 12 patterns are large in spatial scale, exhibiting a mix of annular mode characteristics and wave trains of zonal wavenumber varying from 2 to 4. All patterns vary with intrinsic time scales of about 5-10 days, but some patterns exhibit quasi-oscillatory behavior over a period of 20-30 days, whereas still others exhibit statistically significant enhanced and suppressed frequencies up to about four weeks in association with the Madden-Julian oscillation. Two patterns are significantly influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual time scales. All 12 patterns have strong influences on surface air temperature and sea ice concentrations, with the sea ice response occurring over a time scale of about 2-4 weeks. The austral winter has featured a positive frequency trend in patterns that project onto the negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM) and a negative frequency trend in positive SAM-like patterns. Such atmospheric circulation trends over 34 yr may arise through atmospheric internal variability alone, and, unlike other seasons in the SH, it is not necessary to invoke external forcing as a dominant source of circulation trends.

5. Xie, Shang-Ping, C Deser, Gabriel A Vecchi, M Collins, Thomas L Delworth, A Hall, E Hawkins, Nathaniel C Johnson, C Cassou, A Giannini, and M Watanabe, October 2015: Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change. Nature Climate Change, 5(10), DOI:10.1038/nclimate2689 .
   [ Abstract ]

   Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on projections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales.

6. Maloney, E, S J Camargo, E K M Chang, B A Colle, R Fu, K L Geil, Qi Hu, X Jiang, Nathaniel C Johnson, K B Karnauskas, J L Kinter, B P Kirtman, Sanjiv Kumar, B Langenbrunner, K Lombardo, L Long, A Mariotti, J E Meyerson, K Mo, J D Neelin, Zaitao Pan, R Seager, Y L Serra, A Seth, J Sheffield, J Stroeve, J Thibeault, Shang-Ping Xie, Chunzai Wang, Bruce Wyman, and Ming Zhao, March 2014: North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments: Part III: Assessment of 21st Century Projections. Journal of Climate, 27(6), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00273.1 .
   [ Abstract ]

   In Part 3 of a three-part study on North American climate in Coupled Model Intercomparison project (CMIP5) models, we examine projections of 21st century climate in the RCP8.5 emission experiments. This paper summarizes and synthesizes results from several coordinated studies by the authors. Aspects of North American climate change that are examined include changes in continental-scale temperature and the hydrologic cycle, extremes events, and storm tracks, as well as regional manifestations of these climate variables. We also examine changes in eastern north Pacific and north Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and North American intraseasonal to decadal variability, including changes in teleconnections to other regions of the globe. Projected changes are generally consistent with those previously published for CMIP3, although CMIP5 model projections differ importantly from those of CMIP3 in some aspects, including CMIP5 model agreement on increased central California precipitation. The paper also highlights uncertainties and limitations based on current results as priorities for further research. Although many projected changes in North American climate are consistent across CMIP5 models, substantial intermodel disagreement exists in other aspects. Areas of disagreement include projections of changes in snow water equivalent on a regional basis, summer Arctic sea ice extent, the magnitude and sign of regional precipitation changes, extreme heat events across the Northern U.S., and Atlantic and east Pacific tropical cyclone activity.

7. Sheffield, J, S J Camargo, R Fu, Qi Hu, X Jiang, Nathaniel C Johnson, K B Karnauskas, Seon Tae Kim, J L Kinter, Sanjiv Kumar, B Langenbrunner, E Maloney, A Mariotti, J E Meyerson, J D Neelin, S Nigam, Zaitao Pan, A Ruiz-Barradas, R Seager, Y L Serra, D-Z Sun, Chunzai Wang, Shang-Ping Xie, J-Y Yu, Tao Zhang, and Ming Zhao, December 2013: North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intra-Seasonal to Decadal Variability. Journal of Climate, 26(23), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00593.1 .
   [ Abstract ]

   This is the second part of a three-part paper on North American climate in CMIP5 that evaluates the 20th century simulations of intra-seasonal to multi-decadal variability and teleconnections with North American climate. Overall, the multi-model ensemble does reasonably well at reproducing observed variability in several aspects, but does less well at capturing observed teleconnections, with implications for future projections examined in part three of this paper. In terms of intra-seasonal variability, almost half of the models examined can reproduce observed variability in the eastern Pacific and most models capture the midsummer drought over Central America. The multi-model mean replicates the density of traveling tropical synoptic-scale disturbances but with large spread among the models. On the other hand, the coarse resolution of the models means that tropical cyclone frequencies are under predicted in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific. The frequency and mean amplitude of ENSO are generally well reproduced, although teleconnections with North American climate are widely varying among models and only a few models can reproduce the east and central Pacific types of ENSO and connections with US winter temperatures. The models capture the spatial pattern of PDO variability and its influence on continental temperature and West coast precipitation, but less well for the wintertime precipitation. The spatial representation of the AMO is reasonable but the magnitude of SST anomalies and teleconnections are poorly reproduced. Multi-decadal trends such as the warming hole over the central-southeast US and precipitation increases are not replicated by the models, suggesting that observed changes are linked to natural variability.

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