The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 at a rate of 1% per year until CO2 reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2�C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1�C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO2 doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.
We present results for simulated climate and climate change from a newly developed high-resolution global climate model (GFDL CM2.5). The GFDL CM2.5 model has an atmospheric resolution of approximately 50 Km in the horizontal, with 32 vertical levels. The horizontal resolution in the ocean ranges from 28 Km in the tropics to 8 Km at high latitudes, with 50 vertical levels. This resolution allows the explicit simulation of some mesoscale eddies in the ocean, particularly at lower latitudes.
We present analyses based on the output of a 280 year control simulation; we also present results based on a 140 year simulation in which atmospheric CO2 increases at 1% per year until doubling after 70 years.
Results are compared to the GFDL CM2.1 climate model, which has somewhat similar physics but coarser resolution. The simulated climate in CM2.5 shows marked improvement over many regions, especially the tropics, including a reduction in the double ITCZ and an improved simulation of ENSO. Regional precipitation features are much improved. The Indian monsoon and Amazonian rainfall are also substantially more realistic in CM2.5.
The response of CM2.5 to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 has many features in common with CM2.1, with some notable differences. For example, rainfall changes over the Mediterranean appear to be tightly linked to topography in CM2.5, in contrast to CM2.1 where the response is more spatially homogeneous. In addition, in CM2.5 the near-surface ocean warms substantially in the high latitudes of the Southern Ocean, in contrast to simulations using CM2.1.
The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. The goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol-cloud interactions, chemistry-climate interactions, and coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. The model is also designed to serve as the physical-system component of earth-system models and models for decadal prediction in the near-term future, for example, through improved simulations in tropical land precipitation relative to earlier-generation GFDL models. This paper describes the dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component (AM3) of this model.
Relative to GFDL AM2, AM3 includes new treatments of deep and shallow cumulus convection, cloud-droplet activation by aerosols, sub-grid variability of stratiform vertical velocities for droplet activation, and atmospheric chemistry driven by emissions with advective, convective, and turbulent transport. AM3 employs a cubed-sphere implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with eco-system dynamics and hydrology.
Most basic circulation features in AM3 are simulated as realistically, or more so, than in AM2. In particular, dry biases have been reduced over South America. In coupled mode, the simulation of Arctic sea ice concentration has improved. AM3 aerosol optical depths, scattering properties, and surface clear-sky downward shortwave radiation are more realistic than in AM2. The simulation of marine stratocumulus decks and the intensity distributions of precipitation remain problematic, as in AM2.
The last two decades of the 20th century warm in CM3 by .32°C relative to 1881-1920. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies analyses of observations show warming of .56°C and .52°C, respectively, over this period. CM3 includes anthropogenic cooling by aerosol cloud interactions, and its warming by late 20th century is somewhat less realistic than in CM2.1, which warmed .66°C but did not include aerosol cloud interactions. The improved simulation of the direct aerosol effect (apparent in surface clear-sky downward radiation) in CM3 evidently acts in concert with its simulation of cloud-aerosol interactions to limit greenhouse gas warming in a way that is consistent with observed global temperature changes.
This paper documents time mean simulation characteristics from the ocean and sea ice components in a new coupled climate model developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The climate model, known as CM3, is formulated with effectively the same ocean and sea ice components as the earlier GFDL climate model, CM2.1, yet with extensive developments made to the atmosphere and land model components. Both CM2.1 and CM3 show stable mean climate indices, such as large scale circulation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). There are notable improvements in the CM3 climate simulation relative to CM2.1, including a modified SST bias pattern and reduced biases in the Arctic sea ice cover. We anticipate SST differences between CM2.1 and CM3 in lower latitudes through analysis of the atmospheric fluxes at the ocean surface in corresponding Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. In contrast, SST changes in the high latitudes are dominated by ocean and sea ice effects absent in AMIP simulations. The ocean interior simulation in CM3 is generally warmer than CM2.1, which adversely impacts the interior biases.
The sensitivity of the North Atlantic Ocean Circulation to an abrupt change in the Nordic Sea overflow is investigated for the first time using a high resolution eddy-permitting global coupled ocean-atmosphere model (GFDL CM2.5). The Nordic Sea overflow is perturbed through the change of the bathymetry in GFDL CM2.5. We analyze the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) adjustment process and the downstream oceanic response to the perturbation. The results suggest that north of 34N, AMOC changes induced by changes in the Nordic Sea overflow propagate on the slow tracer advection time scale, instead of the fast Kelvin wave time scale, resulting in a time lead of several years between subpolar and subtropical AMOC changes. The results also show that a stronger and deeper-penetrating Nordic Sea overflow leads to stronger and deeper AMOC, stronger northward ocean heat transport, reduced Labrador Sea deep convection, stronger cyclonic Northern Recirculation Gyre (NRG), westward shift of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and southward shift of the Gulf Stream, warmer sea surface temperature (SST) east of Newfoundland and colder SST south of the Grand Banks, stronger and deeper NAC and Gulf Stream, and stronger oceanic eddy activities along the NAC and the Gulf Stream paths. A stronger/weaker Nordic Sea overflow also leads to a contracted/expanded subpolar gyre (SPG). This sensitivity study points to the important role of the Nordic Sea overflow in the large scale North Atlantic ocean circulation, and it is crucial for climate models to have a correct representation of the Nordic Sea overflow.
Lee, Hyun-Chul, March 2009: Impact of atmospheric CO2 doubling on the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L06602, DOI:10.1029/2008GL037075. Abstract
In order to investigate responses of the North
Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (NPSTMW) to climate change, the impact of
atmospheric CO2 doubling with 1% annual increase is examined
using a coupled climate model (GFDL CM2.1). Under the CO2
forcing, the surface waters in the formation region of NPSTMW and the core
layer of NPSTMW become warmer and freshener. The total volume of NPSTMW
increases by about 40% due to warming. The inter-annual and decadal
variability of NPSTMW is significantly correlated with the variability of
the Kuroshio heat transport, and less correlated with variability of sea
surface temperature and winter monsoon index in comparison with the control
run.
The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved.
Two versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2° latitude × 2.5° longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1° in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30° becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3° at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments.
The control simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic.
Both models have been used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/).
Manuscript received 8 December 2004, in final form 18 March 2005
The current generation of coupled climate models run at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) as part of the Climate Change Science Program contains ocean components that differ in almost every respect from those contained in previous generations of GFDL climate models. This paper summarizes the new physical features of the models and examines the simulations that they produce. Of the two new coupled climate model versions 2.1 (CM2.1) and 2.0 (CM2.0), the CM2.1 model represents a major improvement over CM2.0 in most of the major oceanic features examined, with strikingly lower drifts in hydrographic fields such as temperature and salinity, more realistic ventilation of the deep ocean, and currents that are closer to their observed values. Regional analysis of the differences between the models highlights the importance of wind stress in determining the circulation, particularly in the Southern Ocean. At present, major errors in both models are associated with Northern Hemisphere Mode Waters and outflows from overflows, particularly the Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea.
Impacts of mixing driven by barotropic tides in a coupled climate model are investigated by using an atmosphere–ocean–ice–land coupled climate model, the GFDL CM2.0. We focus on oceanic conditions of the Northern Atlantic. Barotropic tidal mixing effects increase the surface salinity and density in the Northern Atlantic and decrease the RMS error of the model surface salinity and temperature fields related to the observational data.
The climate response to idealized changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration by the new GFDL climate model (CM2) is documented. This new model is very different from earlier GFDL models in its parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes, numerical algorithms, and resolution. The model was constructed to be useful for both seasonal-to-interannual predictions and climate change research. Unlike previous versions of the global coupled GFDL climate models, CM2 does not use flux adjustments to maintain a stable control climate. Results from two model versions, Climate Model versions 2.0 (CM2.0) and 2.1 (CM2.1), are presented.
Two atmosphere–mixed layer ocean or slab models, Slab Model versions 2.0 (SM2.0) and 2.1 (SM2.1), are constructed corresponding to CM2.0 and CM2.1. Using the SM2 models to estimate the climate sensitivity, it is found that the equilibrium globally averaged surface air temperature increases 2.9 (SM2.0) and 3.4 K (SM2.1) for a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. When forced by a 1% per year CO2 increase, the surface air temperature difference around the time of CO2 doubling [transient climate response (TCR)] is about 1.6 K for both coupled model versions (CM2.0 and CM2.1). The simulated warming is near the median of the responses documented for the climate models used in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I Third Assessment Report (TAR).
The thermohaline circulation (THC) weakened in response to increasing atmospheric CO2. By the time of CO2 doubling, the weakening in CM2.1 is larger than that found in CM2.0: 7 and 4 Sv (1 Sv 106 m3 s−1), respectively. However, the THC in the control integration of CM2.1 is stronger than in CM2.0, so that the percentage change in the THC between the two versions is more similar. The average THC change for the models presented in the TAR is about 3 or 4 Sv; however, the range across the model results is very large, varying from a slight increase (+2 Sv) to a large decrease (−10 Sv).
Oey, Leo, Tal Ezer, and Hyun-Chul Lee, 2005: Loop Current, rings and related circulation in the Gulf of Mexico: A review of numerical models and future challenges In Circulation in the Gulf of Mexico: Observations and Models, Washington, DC, American Geophysical Union, 31-56. Abstract
Progress in numerical models of the Loop Current, rings, and related circulation during the past three decades is critically reviewed with emphasis on physical phenomena and processes.
Ezer, Tal, Leo Oey, Hyun-Chul Lee, and W Sturges, January 2003: The variability of currents in the Yucatan Channel: Analysis of results from a numerical ocean model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(C1), 3012, DOI:10.1029/2002JC001509. Abstract
The flow through the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf of Mexico is a major component of the Gulf Stream and the subtropical gyre circulation. Surprisingly, however, little is known about the forcing and physical parameters that affect the current structures in the Channel. This paper attempts to improve our understanding of the flow through the Channel with a detailed analysis of the currents obtained from a primitive-equation model that includes the Gulf and the entire Caribbean Sea and forced by 6-hourly wind from ECMWF. The analysis includes two parts: First, the overall statistics of the model results, including the Loop Current (LC) variability, the frequency of LC eddy-shedding, and the means and standard deviations (SD) of transports and currents, are compared with observations. Secondly, an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis attempts to identify the physical parameters responsible for the dominant modal fluctuations in the Channel. The model LC sheds seven eddies in 4 years at irregular time intervals (6.6, 7.1, 5.3, 11.9, 4.2, 10.9 months). The model's upper (thickness ~800 m) inflow into the Gulf of Mexico occupies two-thirds of the Channel on the western side, with a near-surface maximum (4-year) mean of around 1.5 m s-1 and SD approximately 0.4 m s-1 . Three (return) outflow regions are identified, one in the upper layer (thickness ~600 m) on the eastern third of the Channel, with mean near the surface of about 0.2 m s -1 and SD approximately 0.14 m s -1 , and two deep outflow cores, along the western and eastern slopes of the Channel, with (Mean, SD) approximately (0.17, 0.05) and (0.09, 0.07) ms-1 , respectively. The total modeled Channel transport varies from 16 to 34 Sv (1 Sverdrup = 106 m3s-1) with a mean around 25 Sv. The above velocity and transport values agree quite well with observations by Maul et al. [1985], Ochoa et al. [2001], and Sheinbaum et al. [2002]. The deep return transport below 800 m was found to correlate with changes in the Loop Current extension area, in agreement with the observational analysis by Bunge et al. [2002]. The EOF mode#1 of the along-channel currents contains 50% of the total energy. It is surface-trapped, is 180° out of phase across the channel, and correlates well with the cross-channel vacillations of the LC frontal position. The EOF mode#2 contains 18% of the energy, and its structure mimics that of the mean flow: dominated by two vertically more coherent regions that are180° out of phase across the Channel. The mode is dominated by two periods, approximately 11 months and 2 months respectively, and correlates with the upper-channel inflow transport. The third and fourth modes, together, account for 18% of the total energy. Their combined time series correlates with the deep current over the sill, and is dominated by fluctuations with a period approximately 205 days coincident with the dominant low-frequency fluctuations inherent in Maul et al.'s [1985] sill measurement. Thus the dominant mode of flow fluctuations in the Yucatan Channel is caused by LC cross-frontal movements which may not be directly related to LC eddy-sheddings, while higher modes correspond to transport fluctuations that affect eddy-sheddings, and to bottom-trapped current fluctuations, the cause of which has yet to be fully uncovered.
Lee, Hyun-Chul, and George L Mellor, June 2003: Numerical simulation of the Gulf Stream and the deep circulation. Journal of Oceanography, 59(3), DOI:10.1023/A:1025520027948343-357. Abstract
The Gulf Stream system has been numerically simulated with relatively high resolution and realistic forcing. The surface fluxes of the simulation were obtained from archives of calculations from the Eta-29 km model which is an National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) operational atmospheric prediction model; synoptic fields are available every 3 hour. A comparison between experiments with and without surface fluxes shows that the effect of the surface wind stress and heat fluxes on the Gulf Stream path and separation is closely related to the intensification of deep circulations in the northern region. Additionally, the separation of the Gulf Stream and the downslope movement of the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) are reproduced in the model results. The model DWBC crosses under the Gulf Stream southeast of Cape Hatteras and then feeds the deep cyclonic recirculation east of the Bahamas. The model successfully reproduces the cross-sectional vertical structures of the Gulf Stream, such as the asymmetry of the velocity profile, and this structure is sustained along the downstream axis. The distribution of Root Mean Square (RMS) elevation anomaly of the model shows that the eddy activity of the Gulf Stream is realistically reproduced by the model physics. The entrainment of the upper layer slope current into the Gulf Stream occurs near cross-over; the converging cross-stream flow is nearly barotropic.
Lee, Hyun-Chul, and George L Mellor, February 2003: Numerical simulation of the Gulf Stream System: The Loop Current and the deep circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(C2), 3043, DOI:10.1029/2001JC001074. Abstract
The Loop Current and the deep circulation in the Gulf of Mexico are numerically investigated by a primitive equation, sigma coordinate ocean model with realistic surface fluxes obtained from an atmospheric forecast model. A deep cyclonic circulation, bounded by the deep basin in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is spun up by the Loop Current; the deep cyclonic circulation is coincident with a southward current of the Loop Current eastern limb and weakens after Loop Current ring separation and cessation of the southward current. The anticyclonic, semienclosed Loop Current also induces anticyclonic lower layer columnar eddies in the eastern gulf. These lower layer eddies decouple from the upper layer Loop Current. The westward translation speed of a Loop Current ring is about 2.16-5.18 km d-1; the lower layer eddies have a higher speed and lead the rings into the central gulf. The time-averaged surface circulation of the Gulf of Mexico basin is anticyclonic, mainly because of the transport of anticyclonic vorticity by Loop Current rings in the surface layer an average lower layer cyclonic circulation occurs along the continental slope of the basin.
Oey, Leo, Hyun-Chul Lee, and W J Schmitz, Jr, October 2003: Effects of winds and Caribbean eddies on the frequency of Loop Current eddy shedding: A numerical model study. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(C10), 3324, DOI:10.1029/2002JC001698. Abstract
The Loop Current (LC) is known to shed eddies at irregular intervals from 3 to 17 months. The causes of this irregularity have not, however, been adequately identified previously. We examine the effects of various types of external forcing on shedding with a model of the western North Atlantic Ocean (96°-55°W, 6°-50°N). We force the model with steady transport at 55°W, with winds, and include eddies in the Caribbean Sea. We examine their separate effects. With steady transport only, the model sheds rings at a dominant period of 9-10 months. Wind-induced transport fluctuations through the Greater Antilles Passages cause shedding at shorter intervals (≈3-7 months). Caribbean eddies (anticyclones) cause shedding at longer periods (≈14-16 months). Potential vorticity conservation indicates that Caribbean eddies tend to deter northward extension of the LC into the Gulf, which can lead to longer periods between eddy shedding. Fluctuating inflow at the Yucatan Channel that is associated with winds and/or Caribbean eddies can cause an LC eddy to temporarily (~1 month) detach from and then reattach back to the LC, a phenomenon often observed. Model results also suggest that southwest of Hispaniola, warm eddies are spun up by the local wind stress curl. This type of eddy drifts southwestward, then westward after merging with the Caribbean Current, and then northward as it progresses toward the Yucatan Channel; these eddies significantly affect the shedding behavior of warm-core rings. The timescale for spin up and drift from Hispaniola is about 100 days. Satellite data indicate the existence of these eddies in the real ocean.
Ezer, Tal, Leo Oey, and Hyun-Chul Lee, 2002: Simulation of velocities in the Yucatan Channel In Oceans, Columbia, MD, MIS/IEEE Publ., Marine Techn. Society, 1467-1471. Abstract
As part of the analysis of results from high resolution numerical simulations of the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, the structure and variability of the flow across the Yucatan Channel are described and compared with observations. The main model inflow into the Gulf is found near the surface in the western part of the Channel, while return flows back into the Caribbean Sea are found near the surface on the eastern side of the Channel and along the eastern and western slopes around 1500 m depth, in agreement with recent observations. Variations in the upper inflow and deep outflow transports seem to correlate with variations in the extension of the Loop Current, as suggested by previous analyses of observations and models. Such correlations are especially high near the time when Loop Current eddies are shed into the Gulf of Mexico.
Oey, Leo, and Hyun-Chul Lee, 2002: Deep eddy energy and topographic Rossby waves in the Gulf of Mexico. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 32(12), 3499-3527. Abstract
Observations suggest the hypothesis that deep eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Gulf of Mexico can be accounted for by topographic Rossby waves (TRWs). It is presumed that the TRWs are forced by Loop Current (LC) pulsation, Loop Current eddy (LCE) shedding, and perhaps also by LCE itself. Although the hypothesis is supported by model results, such as those presented in Oey, the existence of TRWs in the model and how they can be forced by larger-scale LC and LCEs with longer-period vacillations have not been clarified. In this paper, results from a 10-yr simulation of LC and LCEs, with double the resolution of that used by Oey, are analyzed to isolate the TRWs. It is shown that along an east-to-west band across the gulf, approximately over the 3000-m isobath, significant EKE that accounts for over one-half of the total spectrum is contained in the 20–100-day periods. Bottom energy intensification exists in this east–west band with vertical decay scales of about 600–300 m decreasing westward. The decrease agrees with theTRW solution. The band is also located within the region where TRWs can be supported by the topographic slope and stratification used in the model and where wavenumber and frequency estimates are consistent with the TRW dispersion relation. The analysis indicates significant correlation between pairs of east–west stations, over distances of approximately 400 km. Contours of lag times suggest offshore (i.e.,downslope) phase propagation, and thus the east–west band indicates nearly parabathic and upslope energy propagation. Ray tracing utilizing the TRW dispersion relation and with and without (for periods >43 days) ambient deep currents shows that TRW energy paths coincide with the above east–west high-energy band. It also explains that the band is a result of TRW refraction by an escarpment (with increased topographic gradient) across the central gulf north of the 3000-m isobath, and also by deep current and its cyclonic shear, and that ray convergence results in localized EKE maxima near 91°W and 94°–95°W. Escarpment and cyclonic current shear also shorten TRW wavelengths. Westward deep currents increase TRW group speeds, by about 2–3 km day1 according to the model, and this and ray confinement by current shear may impose sufficient constraints to aid in inferring deep flows. Model results and ray paths suggest that the deep EKE east of about the 91°W originates from under the LC while farther west the EKE also originates from southwestward propagating LCEs. The near-bottom current fluctuations at these source regions derive their energy from short-period (<100 days) and short-wavelength (<200 km) near-surface fluctuations that propagate around the LC during its northward extrusion phase and also around LCEs as they migrate southwestward in the model.