We investigate the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and structure to the horizontal tracer advection in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3). We compare two schemes, a monotonic scheme and a less diffusive positive-definite scheme. The positive-definite scheme leads to significant improvement in the intensity prediction relative to the monotonic scheme in a suite of 5-day forecasts that mostly consist of rapidly intensifying hurricanes. Notable storm structural differences are present: the radius of maximum wind (RMW) is smaller and eyewall convection occurs farther inside the RMW when the positive-definite scheme is used. Moreover, we find that the horizontal tracer advection scheme affects the eyewall convection location by affecting the moisture distribution in the inner-core region. This study highlights the importance of dynamical core algorithms in hurricane intensity prediction.
A subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction system was recently developed using the GFDL SPEAR global coupled model. Based on 20-year hindcast results (2000-2019), the boreal wintertime (November-April) Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) prediction skill is revealed to reach 30 days measured before the anomaly correlation coefficient of the real-time multivariate (RMM) index drops to 0.5. However, when the MJO is partitioned into four distinct propagation patterns, the prediction range extends to 38, 31, and 31 days for the fast-propagating, slow-propagating, and jumping MJO patterns, respectively, but falls to 23 days for the standing MJO. A further improvement of MJO prediction requires attention to the standing MJO given its large gap with its potential predictability (15 days). The slow-propagating MJO detours southward when traversing the maritime continent (MC), and confronts the MC prediction barrier in the model, while the fast-propagating MJO moves across the central MC without this prediction barrier. The MJO diversity is modulated by stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): the standing (slow-propagating) MJO coincides with significant westerly (easterly) phases of QBO, partially explaining the contrasting MJO prediction skill between these two QBO phases.
The SPEAR model shows its capability, beyond the propagation, in predicting their initiation for different types of MJO along with discrete precursory convection anomalies. The SPEAR model skillfully predicts the observed distinct teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America related to the standing, jumping, and fast-propagating MJO, but not the slow-propagating MJO. These findings highlight the complexities and challenges of incorporating MJO prediction into the operational prediction of meteorological variables.
We present the System for High‐resolution prediction on Earth‐to‐Local Domains (SHiELD), an atmosphere model developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupling the nonhydrostatic FV3 Dynamical Core to a physics suite originally taken from the Global Forecast System. SHiELD is designed to demonstrate new capabilities within its components, explore new model applications, and to answer scientific questions through these new functionalities. A variety of configurations are presented, including short‐to‐medium‐range and subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction, global‐to‐regional convective‐scale hurricane and contiguous U.S. precipitation forecasts, and global cloud‐resolving modeling. Advances within SHiELD can be seamlessly transitioned into other Unified Forecast System or FV3‐based models, including operational implementations of the Unified Forecast System. Continued development of SHiELD has shown improvement upon existing models. The flagship 13‐km SHiELD demonstrates steadily improved large‐scale prediction skill and precipitation prediction skill. SHiELD and the coarser‐resolution S‐SHiELD demonstrate a superior diurnal cycle compared to existing climate models; the latter also demonstrates 28 days of useful prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation. The global‐to‐regional nested configurations T‐SHiELD (tropical Atlantic) and C‐SHiELD (contiguous United States) show significant improvement in hurricane structure from a new tracer advection scheme and promise for medium‐range prediction of convective storms.
We demonstrate that two‐way nesting significantly improves the structure of simulated hurricane in an atmospheric general circulation model. Two sets of 30‐day hindcast experiments are conducted, one with the global‐uniform‐resolution (approximately 25‐km nominal horizontal resolution) and the other with a regionally refined two‐way nest (approximately 8 km over the tropical North Atlantic). The increase in the horizontal resolution on the nested grid improves the representation of storm intensity and intensification rate. When normalized by the radius of maximum wind (RMW), composite hurricane structures are generally similar in both simulations and compare well to observations. However, the hurricanes in the globally uniform configuration have much larger RMWs than observed, while those in the two‐way‐nested configuration have more realistic RMWs. We also find that the representation of the RMW has a critical impact on the simulation of inertial stability and boundary‐layer convergence in the inner‐core region. The more realistic inner‐core size (indicated by RMW) and structure are possible reasons for the improved intensification rates in the two‐way‐nested configuration.
We investigate the monthly prediction of North Atlantic hurricane and especially major hurricane activity based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High‐Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). We compare the performance of two versions of HiRAM: a globally‐uniform 25‐km grid and the other with an 8‐km interactive nest over the tropical North Atlantic. Both grid configurations show skills in predicting anomalous monthly hurricane frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). Particularly the 8‐km nested model shows improved skills in predicting major hurricane frequency and ACE. The skill in anomalous monthly hurricane occurrence prediction arises from the accurate prediction of zonal wind shear anomalies in the Main Development Region, which in turn arises from the SST anomalies persisted from the initialization time. The enhanced resolution on the nested grid permits a better representation of hurricanes and especially intense hurricanes, thereby showing the ability and the potential for prediction of major hurricanes on subseasonal timescales.
Gao, Kun, and I Ginis, August 2018: On the characteristics of linear-phase roll vortices under a moving hurricane boundary layer. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75(8), DOI:10.1175/JAS-D-17-0363.1. Abstract
Previous theoretical and numerical studies only focused on the formation of roll vortices (rolls) under a stationary and axisymmetric hurricane. The effect of the asymmetric wind structure induced by the storm movement on the roll characteristics remains unknown. In this study, we present the first attempt to investigate the characteristics of linear-phase rolls under a moving hurricane by embedding a linear two-dimensional (2-D) roll-resolving model into a 3-D hurricane boundary layer model. It is found that the roll horizontal wavelength under the moving hurricane is largely determined by the radial shear layer depth, defined as the thickness of the layer with positive radial wind shear. The horizontal distribution of the roll wavelength resembles the asymmetric pattern of the radial shear layer depth. Interestingly, the roll growth rate is not only affected by the radial wind shear magnitude alluded to in previous studies, but also by the radial shear layer depth. A deeper (shallower) radial shear layer tends to decrease (increase) the roll growth rate. Such an effect is due to the presence of the bottom boundary. The bottom boundary constrains the lower-level roll streamlines and reduces the efficiency of rolls in extracting kinetic energy from the radial shear. This effect is more pronounced under a deeper shear layer, which favors the formation of larger-size rolls. This study improves the understanding of the main factors affecting the structure and growth of rolls, and will provide guidance for interpreting the spatial distribution of rolls under realistic hurricanes in observations and high-resolution simulations.
Gao, Kun, et al., September 2017: Effect of Boundary Layer Roll Vortices on the Development of an Axisymmetric Tropical Cyclone. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 74(9), DOI:10.1175/JAS-D-16-0222.1. Abstract
In this study, the authors numerically investigate the response of an axisymmetric tropical cyclone (TC) vortex to the vertical fluxes of momentum, heat, and moisture induced by roll vortices (rolls) in the boundary layer. To represent the vertical fluxes induced by rolls, a two-dimensional high-resolution Single-Grid Roll-Resolving Model (SRM) is embedded at multiple horizontal grid points in the mesoscale COAMPS for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) model domain. Idealized experiments are conducted with the SRM embedded within 3 times the radius of maximum wind of an axisymmetric TC. The results indicate that the rolls induce changes in the boundary layer wind distribution and cause a moderate (approximately 15%) increase in the TC intensification rate by increasing the boundary layer convergence in the eyewall region and induce more active eyewall convection. The numerical experiments also suggest that the roll-induced tangential momentum flux is most important in contributing to the TC intensification process, and the rolls generated at different radii (within the range considered in this study) all have positive contributions. The results are not qualitatively impacted by the initial TC vortex or the setup of the vertical diffusivity in COAMPS-TC.
The Tropical Cyclones (TC) that form over the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico region pose a major threat to the surrounding coastal communities. Skillful sub-seasonal prediction of TC activity is important for early preparedness and reducing the TC damage in this region. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a 25-km resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) in simulating the modulation of the TC activity in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea by the Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) based on multi-year retrospective seasonal predictions. We demonstrate that the HiRAM faithfully captures the observed influence of ISO on TC activity over the region of interest, including the formation of tropical storms and (major) hurricanes, as well as the landfalling storms. This is likely because of the realistic representation of the large-scale anomalies associated with boreal summer ISO over Northeast Pacific in HiRAM, especially the enhanced (reduced) moisture throughout the troposphere during the convectively enhanced (suppressed) phase of ISO. The reasonable performance of HiRAM suggests its potential for the subseasonal prediction of regional TC risk.
