Bibliography - Mitchell Bushuk

1. Bushuk, Mitchell, Rym Msadek, Michael Winton, Gabriel A Vecchi, Richard G Gudgel, Anthony Rosati, and Xiaosong Yang, April 2017: Summer enhancement of Arctic sea-ice volume anomalies in the September-ice zone. Journal of Climate, 30(7), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0470.1 .
   [ Abstract ]

   Due to its persistence on seasonal timescales, Arctic sea-ice thickness (SIT) is a potential source of predictability for summer sea-ice extent (SIE). New satellite observations of SIT represent an opportunity to harness this potential predictability via improved thickness initialization in seasonal forecast systems. In this work, the evolution of Arctic sea-ice volume anomalies is studied using a 700-year control integration and a suite of initialized ensemble forecasts from a fully-coupled global climate model. Our analysis is focused on the September sea-ice zone, as this is the region where thickness anomalies have the potential to impact the SIE minimum. The primary finding of this paper is that, in addition to a general decay with time, sea-ice volume anomalies display a summer enhancement, in which anomalies tend to grow between the months of May and July. This summer enhancement is relatively symmetric for positive and negative volume anomalies and peaks in July regardless of the initial month. Analysis of the surface energy budget reveals that the summer volume anomaly enhancement is driven by a positive feedback between the SIT state and the surface albedo. The SIT state affects surface albedo through changes in the sea-ice concentration field, melt-onset date, snow coverage, and ice-thickness distribution, yielding an anomaly in the total absorbed shortwave radiation between May and August, which enhances the existing SIT anomaly. This phenomenon highlights the crucial importance of accurate SIT initialization and representation of ice-albedo feedback processes in seasonal forecast systems.

2. Bushuk, Mitchell, and D Giannakis, June 2017: The Seasonality and Interannual Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Reemergence. Journal of Climate, 30(12), DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0549.1 .
   [ Abstract ]

   There is a significant gap between the potential predictability of Arctic sea-ice area and the current forecast skill of operational prediction systems. One route to closing this gap is improving understanding of the physical mechanisms, such as sea-ice reemergence, that underlie this inherent predictability. Sea-ice reemergence refers to the tendency of melt season sea-ice area anomalies to recur the following growth season, and growth season anomalies to recur the following melt season. This study builds on earlier work, providing a mode-based analysis of the seasonality and interannual variability of three distinct reemergence mechanisms. These mechanisms are studied using a common set of coupled modes of variability obtained via coupled nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis, a data analysis technique for high-dimensional multivariate datasets. The coupled modes capture the co-variability of sea-ice concentration (SIC), sea-surface temperature (SST), sea-level pressure (SLP), and sea-ice thickness (SIT) in a control integration of a global climate model. Using a parsimonious reemergence mode family, the spatial characteristics of growth-to-melt season reemergence are studied, and an SIT–SIC reemergence mechanism is examined. A set of reemergence metrics to quantify the amplitude and phase of growth-to-melt reemergence are introduced. Metrics quantifying SST–SIC and SLP–SIC mechanisms for melt-to-growth reemergence are also computed. A simultaneous comparison of the three reemergence mechanisms, with focus on their seasonality and interannual variability, is performed. Finally, the conclusions are tested in a model hierarchy, consisting of models that share the same sea-ice component but differ in their atmospheric and oceanic formulation.

3. Bushuk, Mitchell, Rym Msadek, Michael Winton, Gabriel A Vecchi, Richard G Gudgel, Anthony Rosati, and Xiaosong Yang, in press: Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales. Geophysical Research Letters. DOI:10.1002/2017GL073155. April 2017.
   [ Abstract ]

   Recent Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction efforts and forecast skill assessments have primarily focused on pan-Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE). In this work, we move towards stakeholder-relevant spatial scales, investigating the regional forecast skill of Arctic sea ice in a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) seasonal prediction system. Using a suite of retrospective initialized forecasts spanning 1981–2015 made with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land model, we show that predictions of detrended regional SIE are skillful at lead times up to 11 months. Regional prediction skill is highly region and target month dependent, and generically exceeds the skill of an anomaly persistence forecast. We show for the first time that initializing the ocean subsurface in a seasonal prediction system can yield significant regional skill for winter SIE. Similarly, as suggested by previous work, we find that sea-ice thickness initial conditions provide a crucial source of skill for regional summer SIE.

4. Christianson, K, and Mitchell Bushuk, et al., October 2016: Sensitivity of Pine Island Glacier to observed ocean forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(20), DOI:10.1002/2016GL070500 .
   [ Abstract ]

   We present subannual observations (2009–2014) of a major West Antarctic glacier (Pine Island Glacier) and the neighboring ocean. Ongoing glacier retreat and accelerated ice flow were likely triggered a few decades ago by increased ocean-induced thinning, which may have initiated marine ice sheet instability. Following a subsequent 60% drop in ocean heat content from early 2012 to late 2013, ice flow slowed, but by < 4%, with flow recovering as the ocean warmed to prior temperatures. During this cold-ocean period, the evolving glacier-bed/ice shelf system was also in a geometry favorable to stabilization. However, despite a minor, temporary decrease in ice discharge, the basin-wide thinning signal did not change. Thus, as predicted by theory, once marine ice sheet instability is underway, a single transient high-amplitude ocean cooling has only a relatively minor effect on ice flow. The long-term effects of ocean temperature variability on ice flow, however, are not yet known.

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