Most Recent GFDL Publications

July 2025 - Present

1. Coats, Sloan, Philip R Thompson, Christopher G Piecuch, John Fasullo, Benjamin D Hamlington, Kristopher B Karnauskas, R Steven Nerem, Angelica R Rodriguez, Jacob M Steinberg, and Julius J M Busecke, October 2025: Understanding the role for internal variability in driving past and future ocean dynamic sea level trends in CMIP6 simulations. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0336.15685-5699.
2. Hou, Yurong, Nathaniel C Johnson, Changhyun Yoo, Ya Wang, Weijun Sun, Kai Man, and Xichen Li, October 2025: Relative effect of Indian Ocean in the Indo-Pacific/North American teleconnection. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0676.15577-5593.
3. Park, Chanil, Yi Ming, Wenhao Dong, Yi Deng, and Zhenyu You, October 2025: Precipitation and lifecycle characteristics of US mesoscale convective systems simulated in a high-resolution GFDL AM4. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0504.15901-5922.
4. Paynter, David J., Jing Feng, Raymond Menzel, and Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, October 2025: The longwave spectral signature of the hemispheric asymmetry in global warming. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0017.15725-5741.
5. Turner, Katherine, John P Krasting, Joellen L Russell, and Ronald J Stouffer, October 2025: Uncovering the seasonality of storm-driven Southern Ocean heat and carbon uptake. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0642.15615-5632.
6. Deike, Luc, Xiaohui Zhou, Paridhi Rustogi, Rachel H R Stanley, Brandon G Reichl, Seth M Bushinsky, and Laure Resplandy, September 2025: A universal wind–wave–bubble formulation for air–sea gas exchange and its impact on oxygen fluxes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 122(38), doi:10.1073/pnas.2419319122.
7. Fan, Chongxing, David J Paynter, Ryan J Kramer, and Pu Lin, September 2025: Sensitivity of Earth's radiation budget to lower boundary condition data sets in historical climate simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(17), doi:10.1029/2025GL115914.
8. Fan, Songmiao, September 2025: Linking interannual variations of California precipitation and Arctic sea ice through circulation patterns. Environmental Research Communications, 7(9), doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ae0278.
9. Han, Bin, Linjiong Zhou, Lucas Harris, and Kai-Yuan Cheng, September 2025: Evaluating snowfall forecasts over the midwestern and eastern United States in the GFDL C-SHiELD model. Weather and Forecasting, 40(9), doi:10.1175/WAF-D-24-0235.11711-1728.
10. Hirose, Lynn A., David J Paynter, Raymond Menzel, and V Ramaswamy, September 2025: Latitudinal differences of changes in Northern Hemisphere clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation over the past 4 decades (1979–2021). Environmental Research Letters, 20(10), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae0500.
11. Lanzante, John R., Keith W Dixon, and Dennis Adams-Smith, September 2025: Variance distortion via indirect downscaling of daily minimum temperature from diurnal temperature range. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 64(9), doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-25-0009.11093-1104.
12. Liao, Enhui, Laure Resplandy, Fan Yang, Yangyang Zhao, Sam J Ditkovsky, Manon Malsang, Jenna Pearson, Andrew C Ross, Robert Hallberg, and Charles A Stock, September 2025: A high-resolution physical-biogeochemical model for marine resource applications in the Northern Indian Ocean (MOM6-COBALT-IND12 v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 18(18), doi:10.5194/gmd-18-6553-2025.
13. Lou, Jiale, Youngji Joh, and Thomas L Delworth, September 2025: Identifying common precursors of decadal vapor pressure deficit variability in the southwestern United States. Journal of Climate, 38(17), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0296.14553–4572.
14. Mouallem, Joseph, Kun Gao, Brandon G Reichl, Lauren Chilutti, Lucas Harris, Rusty Benson, Niki Zadeh, Jing Chen, Jan-Huey Chen, and Cheng Zhang, September 2025: Development of a high-resolution coupled SHiELD-MOM6 model – Part 1: Model overview, coupling technique, and validation in a regional setup. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(18), doi:10.5194/gmd-18-6461-2025.
15. Mouallem, Joseph, Weiye Yao, Lucas Harris, Shian-Jiann Lin, and Xi Chen, September 2025: A minimal, adiabatic example of sudden stratospheric warming. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(9), doi:10.1029/2024MS004760.
16. Park, Chanil, Yi Ming, Yi Deng, and Wenhao Dong, September 2025: Process-based quantification of synoptic forced uplift for springtime MCS initiation over the U.S. Great Plains. JGR Atmospheres, 130(17), doi:10.1029/2025JD044460.
17. Sanderson, Benjamin, Victor Brovkin, Rosie A Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Christopher Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles D Koven, Hongmei Li, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew H MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Lori T Sentman, Isla Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman J Steinert, Abigail L S Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn, September 2025: flat10MIP: An emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(17), doi:10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025.
18. Song, Qianqian, and Paul Ginoux, September 2025: The contribution of ephemeral lakes to global dust cycle and direct radiative effect. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(17), doi:10.1029/2025GL116689.
19. Zavadoff, Breanna L., Kai-Yuan Cheng, Hosmay Lopez, Dongmin Kim, Robert West, Kun Gao, Jan-Huey Chen, and Lucas Harris, September 2025: Western US subseasonal atmospheric river prediction in the global-nested GFDL SHiELD model. JGR Atmospheres, 130(17), doi:10.1029/2025JD043896.
20. Choi, Hwa-Jin, Jong-Yeon Park, Charles A Stock, and Hyung-Gyu Lim, August 2025: Extended predictability of metabolic constraints on fish habitat. Communications Earth and Environment, 6, 617, doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02600-x.
21. Collins, William J., Fiona M O'Connor, Rachael E Byrom, Øivind Hodnebrog, Patrick Jöckel, Mariano Mertens, Gunnar Myhre, Matthais Nützel, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild Bieltvedt-Skeie, Laura Stecher, Larry W Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Gregory Faluvegi, Ulas Im, Lee T Murray, Drew Shindell, Kostas Tsigaridis, N Luke Abraham, and James Keeble, August 2025: Climate forcing due to future ozone changes: an intercomparison of metrics and methods. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 25(16), doi:10.5194/acp-25-9031-20259031–9060.
22. DeSouza-Machado, Sergio, L Larrabee Strow, and Ryan J Kramer, August 2025: Geophysical trends inferred from 20 years of AIRS infrared global observations. JGR Atmospheres, 130(15), doi:10.1029/2025JD043501.
23. Drenkard, Elizabeth J., Charles A Stock, Andrew C Ross, Yi-Cheng Teng, Theresa J Cordero, Wei Cheng, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique N Curchitser, Raphael Dussin, Robert Hallberg, Claudine Hauri, Katherine Hedstrom, Albert Hermann, Michael G Jacox, Kelly A Kearney, Rémi Pagès, Darren J Pilcher, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Vivek Seelanki, and Niki Zadeh, August 2025: A regional physical–biogeochemical ocean model for marine resource applications in the Northeast Pacific (MOM6-COBALT-NEP10k v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 18(16), doi:10.5194/gmd-18-5245-20255245–5290.
24. Durack, Paul J., Vaishali Naik, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Briony Turner, Carlo Buontempo, Anca Brookshaw, Christopher Goddard, Claire MacIntosh, Helene T Hewitt, and John P Dunne, August 2025: Earth system forcing for CMIP7 and beyond. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 106(8), doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0119.1E1580–E1588.
25. Feng, Jing, David J Paynter, Nicole Feldl, Zhihong Tan, and Pu Lin, August 2025: The efficiency of water vapor on top-of-atmosphere radiation. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(16), doi:10.1029/2025GL115210.
26. Gomez, James, Robert J Allen, Larry W Horowitz, Steven T Turnock, Rosie A Fisher, Olivia E Clifton, B K Mignone, Elena Shevliakova, and Sergey Malyshev, August 2025: Climate effects of a future net forestation scenario in CMIP6 models. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8, 297, doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01127-4.
27. Gu, Qinxue, Liwei Jia, Liping Zhang, Thomas L Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Nathaniel C Johnson, Feiyu Lu, Colleen McHugh, and William F Cooke, August 2025: Bridging large-scale and coastal variability to improve seasonal sea level predictions along the U.S. and Canadian West Coast. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8, 295, doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01182-x.
28. Kalashnikov, Dmitri A., John T Abatzoglou, Frances V Davenport, Zachary M Labe, Paul C Loikith, Danielle Touma, and Deepti Singh, August 2025: Projections of lightning-ignited wildfire risk in the western United States. Earth's Future, 13(8), doi:10.1029/2025EF006108.
29. Liu, Ping, Ming Zhao, Stephen T Garner, and Allan Cruz-Perez, August 2025: Impact of mean-state biases on Northern Hemisphere winter blocking in GFDL AM4 and CM4. Journal of Climate, 38(15), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0390.13609-3621.
30. Naik, Vaishali, Paul J Durack, Zebedee Nicholls, Carlo Buontempo, John P Dunne, Helene T Hewitt, Claire MacIntosh, and Eleanor O'Rourke, August 2025: Climate models need more frequent releases of input data — here’s how to do it. Nature, 644, doi:10.1038/d41586-025-02642-3874-875.
31. Pouyaei, Arman, Paul Ginoux, Vaishali Naik, Jing Feng, Larry W Horowitz, and Fabien Paulot, August 2025: ENSO-driven variability in ozone sources and its impact on tropospheric ozone radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(15), doi:10.1029/2025GL115898.
32. Sweeney, Aodhan, Qiang Fu, Susan Solomon, Stephen Po-Chedley, William J Randel, Andrea Steiner, Pu Lin, Thomas Birner, Sean Davis, and Peidong Wang, August 2025: Recent warming of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical lower stratosphere and Antarctic ozone healing. AGU Advances, 6(4), doi:10.1029/2025AV001737.
33. Wall, Casey J., David J Paynter, Yi Qin, Matvey Debolskiy, Margaret L Duffy, Takuro Michibata, Brandon M Duran, Nicholas J Lutsko, Po-Lun Ma, Brian Medeiros, Trude Storelvmo, and Ming Zhao, August 2025: Decomposing cloud radiative feedbacks by cloud-top phase. Journal of Climate, 38(16), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0538.14023-4043.
34. Xu, Weixuan Rosa, Keith W Dixon, Nicole Zenes, and Dennis Adams-Smith, August 2025: Sometimes missing the heat: The risk of underestimating extreme heat days with daily maximum heat index approximation. International Journal of Biometeorology, doi:10.1007/s00484-025-03001-7.
35. Zhang, Gan, Megha Rao, Janni Yuval, and Ming Zhao, August 2025: Advancing seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity with a hybrid AI-physics climate model. Environmental Research Letters, 20(9), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adf864.
36. Zilberman, Nathalie, William Llovel, Jacob M Steinberg, Benoit Meyssignac, Michaël Ablain, and R Fraudeau, August 2025: Deep ocean steric sea level change in the subtropical northwest Atlantic Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(16), doi:10.1029/2024GL114158.
37. Burnett, Adam C., Aditi Sheshadri, Thomas E Robinson, and Pu Lin, July 2025: Connecting tropical cyclones, precursor disturbances, and the ITCZ in aquaplanet simulations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(7), doi:10.1029/2024MS004868.
38. Chen, Jan-Huey, Timothy Marchok, Morris A Bender, Kun Gao, Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, Lucas Harris, Andrew T Hazelton, Bin Liu, Avichal Mehra, Matthew J Morin, Fanglin Yang, Xuejin Zhang, Zhan Zhang, and Linjiong Zhou, July 2025: Closing the gap — Hurricane prediction advances in the U.S. FV3-based models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 106(7), doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0036.1E1211-E1220.
39. Clark, Joseph P., and Nathaniel C Johnson, July 2025: Evaluating predictability limits of North American winter precipitation. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8, 254, doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01132-7.
40. Elkins, Stephanie, Arlene M Fiore, Gustavo P Correa, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Steven J Smith, Vaishali Naik, and Yangyang Xu, July 2025: Detecting tropospheric composition and climate responses to US air pollution controls in the context of internally-arising variability. npj Clean Air, 1, 17, doi:10.1038/s44407-025-00016-7.
41. Elsberry, Russell L., Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Wen-Hsin Huang, and Timothy Marchok, July 2025: New challenges for tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasting in an unfavorable external environment in the western North Pacific—Part II: Intensifications near and north of 20° N. Atmosphere, 16(7), doi:10.3390/atmos16070879.
42. Falasca, Fabrizio, Aurora Basinski-Ferris, Laure Zanna, and Ming Zhao, July 2025: A fluctuation-dissipation theorem perspective on radiative responses to temperature perturbations. Journal of Climate, 38(14), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0479.13239-3260.
43. Fujiwara, Masatomo, Bomin Sun, Anthony Reale, Domenico Cimini, Salvatore Larosa, Lori Borg, Christoph von Rohden, Michael Sommer, Ruud Dirksen, Marion Maturilli, Holger Vömel, Rigel Kivi, Bruce Ingleby, and Ryan J Kramer, et al., July 2025: Justification for high-ascent attainment for balloon radiosonde soundings at GRUAN and other sites. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 18(3), doi:10.5194/amt-18-2919-20252919-2955.
44. Griffiths, Paul T., Laura J Wilcox, Robert J Allen, and Vaishali Naik, et al., July 2025: Opinion: The role of AerChemMIP in advancing climate and air quality research. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 25(14), doi:10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025.
45. Haine, Thomas W., Stephen M Griffies, Geoffrey Gebbie, and Wenrui Jiang, July 2025: A review of Green's function methods for tracer timescales and pathways in ocean models. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(7), doi:10.1029/2024MS004637.
46. Hu, Chih-Chi, Alan Geer, and Peter Jan van Leeuwen, July 2025: Introducing non-Gaussian observation errors into incremental variational data assimilation methods. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, doi:10.1002/qj.5050.
47. Lopez, Hosmay, Sang-Ki Lee, Robert West, Dongmin Kim, and Liwei Jia, July 2025: The longest-lasting 2023 western North American heat wave was fueled by the record-warm Atlantic Ocean. Nature Communications, 16, 6544, doi:10.1038/s41467-025-61859-y.
48. Olson, Elise M., Jasmin G John, John P Dunne, Charles A Stock, and Elizabeth J Drenkard, July 2025: Potential for regional resilience to ocean warming and acidification extremes: Projected vulnerability under contrasting pathways and thresholds. Global Change Biology, 31(7), doi:10.1111/gcb.70360.
49. Park, Chanyoung, Brian J Soden, Ryan J Kramer, Tristan L'Ecuyer, and Haozhe He, July 2025: Observational constraints suggest a smaller effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 25(13), doi:10.5194/acp-25-7299-20257299-7313.
50. Patterson, John D., Eric S Saltzman, and Fabien Paulot, July 2025: Emerging constraints on the H2 budget from polar firn air reconstructions. JGR Atmospheres, 130(13), doi:10.1029/2025JD043662.
51. Turnock, Steven T., Dimitris Akritidis, Larry W Horowitz, Mariano Mertens, Andrea Pozzer, Carly L Reddington, Hantao Wang, Putian Zhou, and Fiona M O'Connor, July 2025: Drivers of change in peak-season surface ozone concentrations and impacts on human health over the historical period (1850–2014). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 25(13), doi:10.5194/acp-25-7111-20257111-7136.
52. Xue, Yan, Steven M Simon, Jason R Anderson, Philip J Pegion, Neil P Barton, Cory F Baggett, Cristiana Stan, Nathaniel C Johnson, Santha Akella, Emily Becker, Avichal Mehra, Mark Olsen, Elena Shevliakova, Jeffrey S Whitaker, and JieShun Zhu, July 2025: Advancing NOAA's subseasonal and seasonal applications and enhancing collaboration among stakeholders, modelers, and researchers. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 106(7), doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0060.1.
53. You, Yujia, and Thomas L Delworth, July 2025: Projected response of Santa Ana winds over Southern California to global warming by a high-resolution climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(14), doi:10.1029/2025GL114994.