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Most Recent GFDL Publications

October 2025 - Present

  1. Chang, Inseong, Young-Ho Kim, Young-Gyu Park, Hyunkeun Jin, Gyundo Pak, Andrew C Ross, and Robert Hallberg, January 2026: Assessing vertical coordinate system performance in the Regional Modular Ocean Model 6 configuration for Northwest Pacific. Geoscientific Model Development, 19(1), doi:10.5194/gmd-19-187-2026187-216.
  2. Tan, Zhihong, and Ming Zhao, January 2026: Impact of the NCEP TKE-based eddy-diffusivity mass-flux boundary layer scheme on the climatology and warming response of GFDL AM4.0 model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 18(1), doi:10.1029/2025MS005168.
  3. Yoon, Donghyuck, Jan-Huey Chen, Hsin Hsu, and Kirsten L Findell, January 2026: Variations in land-atmosphere coupling during drought-heatwave events. Communications Earth and Environment, 7, 1, doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02977-9.
  4. Chang, Chiung-Yin, Pu Lin, Isaac M Held, Timothy M Merlis, and Pablo Zurita-Gotor, December 2025: Resolution dependence of tropical poleward energy transport in aquaplanet GCMs. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(12), doi:10.1029/2025MS005103.
  5. Chu, Wenchao, Jorge L García-Franco, Suzana J Camargo, Chia-Ying Lee, Michael K Tippett, and Hiroyuki Murakami, December 2025: Evaluation of tropical cyclone characteristics in the SPEAR large ensemble simulations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(12), doi:10.1029/2025MS005361.
  6. Chua, Glen, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Jing Feng, and Larry W Horowitz, December 2025: Impact of future methane emission trajectories on atmospheric composition and climate in a future hydrogen economy. Earth's Future, 13(12), doi:10.1029/2025EF006254.
  7. Clark, Spencer K., Oliver Watt-Meyer, Anna Kwa, Jeremy McGibbon, Brian Henn, W Andre Perkins, Elynn Wu, Lucas Harris, and Christopher S Bretherton, December 2025: ACE2-SOM: Coupling an ML atmospheric emulator to a slab ocean and learning the sensitivity of climate to changed CO2. JGR Machine Learning and Computation, 2(4), doi:10.1029/2024JH000575.
  8. Corrales-Ugalde, Marco, Jessica Y Luo, Colleen M Petrik, Charles A Stock, Mathilde Dugenne, Lars Stemmann, Todd D O'Brien, and Rainer Kiko, December 2025: Assessment of plankton size structure from CMIP6 Earth System Models with a novel Pelagic Size Structure Database. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 39(12), doi:10.1029/2024GB008443.
  9. Lin, Meiyun, Larry W Horowitz, Yuanyu Xie, and Isabelle De Smedt, December 2025: Compound drivers of rising ozone extremes in the North China Plain (2013-2023): Aerosol decline, hot droughts, afforestation-driven BVOCs, and reduced vegetation uptake. JGR Atmospheres, 130(24), doi:10.1029/2025JD044764.
  10. Liu, Ping, Kevin A Reed, Ming Zhao, Stephen T Garner, and Minghua Zhang, December 2025: Rapid shrinking of the warming hole over the United States in ERA5 and SPEAR. JGR Atmospheres, 130(23), doi:10.1029/2025JD044627.
  11. Martinez-Villalobos, Cristian, Antonietta Capotondi, Clara Deser, Boris Dewitte, Neil J Holbrook, Matthew Newman, Cécile Penland, Daniel Vimont, and Andrew T Wittenberg, December 2025: A low-order data-driven model of ENSO diversity. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(24), doi:10.1029/2025GL118649.
  12. Narinesingh, Veeshan, Joseph P Clark, David J Paynter, Zhihong Tan, Berenize Garcia Nueva, and Kristopher Rand, December 2025: Modeling Northern Hemisphere heat extremes in current and warmer climate: Intensity, duration, and physical drivers. Journal of Climate, 38(24), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0013.17625-7638.
  13. Schultz, Cristina, Jessica Y Luo, Damian C Brady, Robinson W Fulweiler, Matthew H Long, Colleen M Petrik, Jeremy M Testa, Heather M Benway, David Burdige, Marta M Cecchetto, Isa Elegbede, Natalya Evans, Alexandra Frenzel, Kayla Gillen, Lisa C Herbert, Heidi K Hirsh, Gennadi Lessin, Lisa Levin, Kanchan Maiti, Sairah Malkin, Sarah L Mincks, Stanley Nmor, Anh Pham, James Pinckney, Christophe Rabouille, Shaily Rahman, and Subhadeep Rakshit, et al., December 2025: Elucidating the role of marine benthic carbon in a changing world. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 39(12), doi:10.1029/2025GB008643.
  14. Zhou, Wenyu, L Ruby Leung, Chuan-Chieh Chang, Ming Zhao, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Hsin-Chien Liang, Chia-Ying Tu, Karthik Balaguru, and Jian Lu, December 2025: Poleward migration of tropical cyclones over 1980–2024 is dominated by Pacific variability. Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/s41561-025-01866-2.
  15. Da, Fei, Charles A Stock, John P Dunne, Xiao Liu, Jessica Y Luo, Minjin Lee, and Elena Shevliakova, November 2025: A global perspective on river alkalinity: Drivers and implications for coastal ocean carbonate chemistry. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 39(11), doi:10.1029/2025GB008528.
  16. DelSole, T, Michael K Tippett, and Nathaniel C Johnson, November 2025: Diagnosing errors in climate forecast models using forced autoregressive models. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(11), doi:10.1029/2024MS004926.
  17. Hossan, Alamgir, Andreas Colliander, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Joel Harper, Lauren Andrews, Jana Kolassa, Julie Z Miller, and Richard I Cullather, November 2025: Evaluation of wet snow dielectric mixing models for L-band radiometric measurement of liquid water content in Greenland's percolation zone. The Cryosphere, 19(11), doi:10.5194/tc-19-6077-20256077-6102.
  18. Joshi, Rajat, and Rong Zhang, November 2025: On the Atlantic extratropical-tropical teleconnection in response to external freshwater forcing. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8, 371, doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01253-z.
  19. Li, Longlei, Natalie M. Mahowald, Vincenzo Obiso, Jasper F. Kok, Ron L. Miller, Xiaohong Liu, Maria Gonçalves Ageitos, Carlos Pérez Garcia-Pando, Danny M Leung, Ziming Ke, Philip G Brodrick, Roger N Clark, Paola Formenti, Claudia Di Biagio, Paul Ginoux, Gregory S Okin, Bo Zhou, David R. Thompson, and Robert O. Green, November 2025: Dust direct radiative effect including large particles and component minerals. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(22), doi:10.1029/2025GL119383.
  20. Li, Zhe, Qinghua Ding, Thomas J Ballinger, Dániel Topál, Ian Baxter, and Liping Zhang, November 2025: Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, 63, 438, doi:10.1007/s00382-025-07852-z.
  21. Lubis, Sandro W., Chuan-Chieh Chang, Samson Hagos, Ming Zhao, Ziming Chen, Karthik Balaguru, and L Ruby Leung, November 2025: Projected changes in cross-equatorial northerly surges and their hydrological impacts in the near future. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8, 375, doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01239-x.
  22. Paulot, Fabien, et al., November 2025: Imprint of anthropogenic sources and soil removal on the surface concentration of H2 in the contiguous US. Environmental Science & Technology, 59(47), doi:10.1021/acs.est.5c04607.
  23. Prange, Marc, Ming Zhao, Elena Shevliakova, and Sergey Malyshev, November 2025: Elucidating the loose tie between precipitation and streamflow sensitivities to warming across the contiguous United States. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8, 378, doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01257-9.
  24. Steinberg, Jacob M., Elizabeth Yankovsky, Sylvia T Cole, and Laure Zanna, November 2025: A landscape of mesoscale eddy vertical structure: The influence of bathymetric slope and roughness on kinetic energy. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 55(11), doi:10.1175/JPO-D-25-0044.11987-2004.
  25. Chen, Jie, Kun Gao, Lucas Harris, and Timothy Marchok, October 2025: Do tropical cyclone outer size forecasts improve simultaneously with intensity forecasts? Geophysical Research Letters, 52(20), doi:10.1029/2025GL115875.
  26. Coats, Sloan, Philip R Thompson, Christopher G Piecuch, John Fasullo, Benjamin D Hamlington, Kristopher B Karnauskas, R Steven Nerem, Angelica R Rodriguez, Jacob M Steinberg, and Julius J M Busecke, October 2025: Understanding the role for internal variability in driving past and future ocean dynamic sea level trends in CMIP6 simulations. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0336.15685-5699.
  27. Dunne, John P., Helene T Hewitt, Julie M Arblaster, Frédéric Bonou, Olivier Boucher, Tereza Cavazos, Beth Dingley, Paul J Durack, Birgit Hassler, Martin Juckes, Tomoki Miyakawa, Matt Mizielinski, and Vaishali Naik, et al., October 2025: An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(19), doi:10.5194/gmd-18-6671-20256671-6700.
  28. Griffies, Stephen M., Alistair Adcroft, Rebecca L Beadling, Mitchell Bushuk, Chiung-Yin Chang, Henri F Drake, Raphael Dussin, Robert Hallberg, William J Hurlin, Hermant Khatri, John P Krasting, Matthew Lobo, Graeme A MacGilchrist, Brandon G Reichl, Aakash Sane, Olga V Sergienko, Maike Sonnewald, Jacob M Steinberg, Jan-Erik Tesdal, Matthew Thomas, Katherine Turner, Marshall L Ward, Michael Winton, Niki Zadeh, Laure Zanna, Rong Zhang, Wenda Zhang, and Ming Zhao, October 2025: The GFDL-CM4X model hierarchy, Part I: Model description and thermal properties. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(10), doi:10.1029/2024MS004861.
  29. Griffies, Stephen M., Alistair Adcroft, Rebecca L Beadling, Mitchell Bushuk, Chiung-Yin Chang, Henri F Drake, Raphael Dussin, Robert Hallberg, William J Hurlin, Hermant Khatri, John P Krasting, Matthew Lobo, Graeme A MacGilchrist, Brandon G Reichl, Aakash Sane, Olga V Sergienko, Maike Sonnewald, Jacob M Steinberg, Jan-Erik Tesdal, Matthew Thomas, Katherine Turner, Marshall L Ward, Michael Winton, Niki Zadeh, Laure Zanna, Rong Zhang, Wenda Zhang, and Ming Zhao, October 2025: The GFDL-CM4X climate model hierarchy, Part II: Case studies. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(10), doi:10.1029/2024MS004862.
  30. Hossan, Alamgir, Andreas Colliander, Baptiste Vandecrux, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Joel Harper, Shawn Marshall, and Julie Z Miller, October 2025: Retrieval and validation of total seasonal liquid water amounts in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet using L-band radiometry. The Cryosphere, 19(10), doi:10.5194/tc-19-4237-20254237-4258.
  31. Hou, Yurong, Nathaniel C Johnson, Changhyun Yoo, Ya Wang, Weijun Sun, Kai Man, and Xichen Li, October 2025: Relative effect of Indian Ocean in the Indo-Pacific/North American teleconnection. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0676.15577-5593.
  32. Houriez, Luc, Eric Larour, Lambert Caron, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, et al., October 2025: Reinforced ridges in Thwaites Glacier yield insights into resolution requirements for coupled ice sheet and solid Earth models. The Cryosphere, 19(10), doi:10.5194/tc-19-4355-20254355-4372.
  33. Hu, Chih-Chi, Alan Geer, and Peter Jan van Leeuwen, October 2025: Introducing non-Gaussian observation errors into incremental variational data assimilation methods. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 151(772), doi:10.1002/qj.5050.
  34. Park, Chanil, Yi Ming, Wenhao Dong, Yi Deng, and Zhenyu You, October 2025: Precipitation and lifecycle characteristics of US mesoscale convective systems simulated in a high-resolution GFDL AM4. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0504.15901-5922.
  35. Paynter, David J., Jing Feng, Raymond Menzel, and Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, October 2025: The longwave spectral signature of the hemispheric asymmetry in global warming. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0017.15725-5741.
  36. Qiu, Minghao, Jessica Li, Carlos F Gould, Renzhi Jing, Makoto Kelp, Marissa Childs, Jeff Wen, Yuanyu Xie, Meiyun Lin, Mathew V Kiang, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah S Diffenbaugh, and Marshall Burke, October 2025: Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the US under climate change. Nature, doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09611-w.
  37. Toggweiler, J R., and Weimin Si, October 2025: A new role for the AMOC during the Ice Ages. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 40(10), doi:10.1029/2024PA004973.
  38. Turner, Katherine, John P Krasting, Joellen L Russell, and Ronald J Stouffer, October 2025: Uncovering the seasonality of storm-driven Southern Ocean heat and carbon uptake. Journal of Climate, 38(20), doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0642.15615-5632.